Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender.
Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender. That was the day that the last of the everyday outfielders vanished from the free agent market, as Nick Swisher went from the Yankees to the Indians on a four-year, $56 million contract.
Maybe something changes in between now and the start of spring training. Maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. finds a way to swing a trade that will address one of the glaring needs that still exists on his roster at the midway point of the offseason. But the odds of that are long. The Phillies have already parted with two of their top trade chips in Vance Worley and Trevor May, and they did not exactly have a large stack to begin with. The trades that were supposed to make them contenders were made long before this offseason. The prospects that other teams covet are already gone. Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana -- those are the types of players who end up being dealt for the Justin Uptons of the world. But the Phillies dealt them for two full seasons and two half seasons of Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence.
Now, after choosing to sit out a wildly expensive and under talented free agent position player market, Amaro and Co. find themselves with a personnel structure that looks remarkable similar to the way it did on Opening Day last season. Go position by position and ask yourself: are the Phillies in any better position to contend than they were one year ago today?
The trend of replacing departing players with lesser parts appears to have continued with Ben Revere stepping in for Shane Victorino and John Lannan stepping in for Vance Worley and some combination of Domonic Brown and a right-handed-bat-to-be-named-later stepping in for Hunter Pence, who previously stepped in for Jayson Werth. Revere is younger than Victorino and has more potential, but you can not ignore the fact that Victorino finished the 2012 season, the worst as a big league regular, with an OPS 29 points higher than Revere. Much the same can be said for the situation in right field. And at the bottom of the rotation, the Phillies have managed to get older AND less talented.
The optimistic view is that, one year ago, Ryan Howard was still working his way back from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon. This year, though, he is working his way back from a season in which he hit just .219 with a .295 on base percentage, .423 slugging percentage and 11 home runs in 292 plate appearances. And a broken toe.
The Phillies are optimistic that, this year, Chase Utley will be healthy for a the whole season. Last year, though, they were saying the same thing.
Even if you do count the outlooks for Howard and Utley as improvements over last year at this time, you also must count the outlook for Roy Halladay as the opposite. The veteran ace will be 36 years old, and he will be coming off a season in which his velocity and command dipped, his ERA ballooned, and his shoulder was afflicted by a condition that was not addressed via offseason surgery.
That’s not to say that Halladay will not return to the form he displayed in 2010 and 2011, going 40-16 with a 2.40 ERA in 484 1/3 innings. Nor is it to say that Howard won’t return to the form he displayed in 2011, or that Utley won’t miss the first two months of the season for the first time since 2010, or that Brown won’t fulfill the potential that earned him recognition as one of the top prospects in the game in 2010, or that Darin Ruf won’t continue hitting home runs at a Ruthian pace, or that newly-acquired veteran Michael Young won’t bounce back from an abysmal 2011 while also proving he can handle the defensive responsibilities of an everyday third baseman, or that Lannan and Kyle Kendrick will prove to be just as adequate as Worley and Joe Blanton were at the start of last season.
But that does say that the Phillies are essentially in the same position they were last year, the outcome of their season predicated on a slew of breaks in their direction even before the inevitable regular season injuries had a chance to mount. The variables may have been different -- John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Worley, Placido Polanco -- but the questions were very much the same. If healthy, Mike Adams should be a huge improvement over the committee that manned the eighth inning last season. But he is also an aging reliever coming off surgery (although, admittedly, not as aging as Jose Contreras was at this time last year).
The potential is probably greater than it was last season. And there is a certain amount of excitement that comes with watching a trio of under-30 players like Ruf, Brown and Revere attempt to establish themselves as legitimate pieces of a franchise’s future. Then again, this is a franchise that will have a payroll eclipsing $170 million. This is a franchise that has a lot of financial and emotional capital invested in perennial World Series contention. And while 2013 could prove to be the start of a new chapter in Phillies baseball, the roster as it stands right now does not preclude the chance of it being the expensive end of an old one.
Mike Adams had a rib removed to relieve pressure, are you sure he had elbow surgery too?— j-ritch- Good article Murph. Looks like this team is headed in the wrong direction. Other than Howard, no power and too many question marks and no sure bets. Our best player, Chooch, will start the season on the sideline. To quote Whitey: "oh Brother".— mortt1956
- I watched at least 140 games last year, and I'd say that about 20 of them were lost due to 8th inning meltdowns and sloppy defense.
I am NOT a fan of Ruben Amaro, but the additions of Revere and Young will significantly improve our defense (Young isn't great defensively but much better than Frandsen or Wigginton) and Mike Adams will fill the most glaring hole we had in 2012 - 8th inning setup.
Even with long-term injuries to Utley, Howard & Polanco, the Phillies offensive numbers in 2012 were nearly identical to 2011 when they won 102 games. The terrible relief pitching & bullpen is what destroyed the 2012 season.
I have no problem starting the year with Ruf & Brown at the corners, if one of them turn out to be terrible RAJ can make a trade at the deadline.
Hamels & Lee pitched great last year and should provide a reliable 1-2 punch at the top of the order. If there is one thing I'm most concerned about in 2013 its Roy Halladay.— the_anti_negadelphian - Young and Revere aren't better than Polanco and Victorino defensively, period. Revere wasn't even the best center fielder on his team. — jtj06
- Presumably you are Phillies fan.
Tell me, then, how many Twins games did you watch last year?— PhightinPhil - Young has much worse fielding stats than Frandsen and a lower B.A - Young is in the category of "poor" fielding — Roswell Greys
- I agree that Young and Revere aren't defensive upgrades, but I too watched about as many games last season, and while I saw the pen lose some a fair amount of games in the 8th, it was really only Frandsen and Mayberry that I recall making crucial errors that one could say directly attributed to a loss. But I don't think anyone can argue that Young will have a much better offensive year than Polanco has had in a long time, and Victorino wasn't so hot either, so I can't imagine that Revere can't at least equal that. Sure, defensively they won't be as good on paper. but since when did 'on paper' guarantee success? the answer is "never". We get more bounces and stay healthy and get Doc to have a comeback player of the year type of season, we're right there come September. Haters abound here that's for sure, but I'll be rootin and hopin for the best. Although I will have plenty of booze on hand just in case. :P — Momjeanz
- "Oh Brother" is right. Our best OFer would not start on most teams. He certainly wouldn't start for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off in South Philly. RAJ loosened the bolts. The sad thing is that they have no hope for the future. The contracts Rube has saddled us with makes their fake/injured stars un-trade-able. Top prospects have been dealt for garbage (Pence, Oswalt, Revere) and not even a miracle in Mike Adams' arm can make Pap a better closer. BoSox fans warned me when Smug Ruben over-paid for him ... they were right. So ... NO - the Phillies have not "improved." In fact, since 2008, under the stewardship of Rube-the-Boob, they have imploded. Is he still promising "small-ball" from Uncle Charlie's bunch? — Copper34
- Young is better than the garbage who played 3rd base. Polanco was injured the entire season. Revere is just as good as Victorino. Watch some film. — the_anti_negadelphian
- This happens to every team with a long run of success. They are a big market and can rebound fast. RJ traded prospects to improve for the playoff runs. That's what you do to win now. The Phils had more than enough talent to win the WS 09-11. The PLAYERS didn't get it done.— FightinPhil
- Chollie cannot manage in a short series. That's a big part of the 2009 WS loss. — fmMD
- It's a cruel joke that he is still the Manager. — Copper34
- Phillies' New Year's Resolution: Utley returns to 2008 form, Howard returns to 2007 form, Rollins returns to 2006 form, Young proves that 2012 was a fluke, Adams proves that 2012 was a fluke, Halladay proves that 2012 was a fluke, Kendrick proves that 2012 wasn't a fluke, Ruiz proves that 2012 wasn't a fluke, Ruf proves that 2012 wasn't a fluke. Its a lot to hope and wish for...
Then there's the Nats:
Nationals New Year's Resolution: Just to go out and play. No need to wish and hope with a tremendously deep rotation, solid bullpen and likely improved lineup.
Phillies: Revere, Utley, Young, Howard, Ruiz, Rollins, Ruf, Brown with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Kendrick and Lannan. With Adams and Pappelbon.
Nationals: Span, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Morse/Werth, Desmond, Espinoza, Ramos with Strasberg, Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Haren, Detweiler. And Storen and Clippard.
Let us bow our heads and pray...— guru26 - The entire Nationals team has to prove 2012 wasn't a fluke. — the_anti_negadelphian
- Actually, they don't. There wasn't a single member of the Nationals that put up statistics last year that was in any way an outlier compared to their career numbers. The only players you could say exceeded expectations were Lombardozzi and Tyler Moore, as they were rookies who both hit a little better than expected, but they're both bench players. Also, when you consider how ravaged that lineup was by injuries (Werth missing most of the season, Ramos missing almost all of the season, Morse missing half the season, Zimmerman missing nearly the first quarter, Desmond spending a month on the DL, Storen out for most of the season), and the fact that the Nats are in a position in which aging actually helps them a bit considering how young the entire team is - No, there's nothing flukey about the Nats 2012 season. They won more games than any other team. That's legitimized by the fact that they also outscored opponents more than any other team. Pythagorus says they were for real. Delusional Phillies fans say it's a fluke. As a Nats fan, all is right with the word.
And just so that I don't sound like a complete troll - I do expect the Phillies to improve over last year. They were, admittedly, a better team last season than their record indicated. But they'll have to be incredibly lucky dodging injuries with an old and aging team and that's going to be very, very difficult to do. If (when) they do incur injuries, they don't have a bench or farm system talent that's going to be able to contribute at a high level with any regularity. That, again, is an area where the Nats are also better. Good luck. You're going to need it.— phorget_about_it
