Measuring the cost of injuries over the last five seasons
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Measuring the cost of injuries over the last five seasons
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Hard to believe that I'll be flying down to Clearwater in a little over a week for this year's edition of spring training. I'm in the process of organizing my notes in an attempt to identify some of the plotlines that need to be explored early in camp.
Here's one:
Last year, nearly 1/5th of the money that the Phillies paid in player salaries went to somebody who was on the disabled list. Phillies players combined to log more than 1,400 days on the disabled list, at a combined cost of about $32.98 million. In other words, about 19.1 percent of the team's opening day payroll ended up as dead money. Ryan Howard spent 92 days on the disabled list while being paid about $109,000 per day in salary, for a total of about $10.1 million.
Teams can carry insurance on player contracts, but the practice is not as common as you might think because of the cost of the premiums that such policies usually require.
As you can see below, the percentage of payroll investment lost due to injury has increased in each of the last four seasons:
| Year | Total $ Lost | Opening Day Payroll | % Payroll Lost | Avg. Hitter Age | Avg. Pitcher Age |
| 2008 | $6.936 million | $95.200 million | 7.29 | 29.9 | 30.3 |
| 2009 | $10.938 million | $113.680 million | 9.62 | 31.2 | 31.0 |
| 2010 | $18.917 million | $135.398 million | 13.97 | 31.9 | 30.9 |
| 2011 | $31.573 million | $170.893 million | 18.48 | 31.6 | 29.4 |
| 2012 | $32.982 million | $172.535 million | 19.12 | 31.3 | 29.3 |
These numbers are based on the figures I have in my records. The average ages are from Baseball-Reference.com and are weighted for playing time. This year, the average age of the Phillies' eight projected regulars is 31, and the average age for the five projected starting pitchers is 31.
Comments (42)
We keep hearing about how old the Phillies are; and how the Phillies are getting older. We've been hearing that for the past five years or so. Yet, it would seem that the average age of the Phillies hasn't changed that much in five years -- especially the average age of the hitters. It would be interesting to see a chart that lists the average ages of the other teams in the league. That would prove (or disprove) the notion that the Phillies are old and getting older.— raltman- ESPN has roster analysis stats that show average age but they don't offer any splits: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rosters
I'm also not sure how up to date it is and how is accounts for multiple in-season moves.
The Phillies problem is they have all the position player age concentrated in the infield. Elite pitchers also generally age differently than position players (generally can play at a high level longer).— s - Whether the "Phightins" are getting older or not, the team is getting less talented. Replace Burrell with Mayberry, Werth with Brown, Victorino with Revere and then you take into account the reduced production from, Utley and Howard and you see why this is a .500 team. It's all about talent evaluation and thus far, Rube has not been up to task. Whether you like it or whether you don't like it, learn to love it because it's the truth according to the Tonner and it's the best thing going today.
- Your schtick is really old and played.
You got anything new?— The Truth Hurts - WOW this Murphy character must think people are stupid. Averages are only good when you do not have any outliers in your set. Take away Moyer from the 08 and 09 team and I am guessing the average drops by 2 years. Add Raul from 09-11 and see what happens. Why don't you try showing us the median (assuming you know how) so we can have a better picture. — vathi
- Possible investigative angle: Jesse Biddle and Chad Durbin are actually relatives. Sure it seems far fetched. But their resemblance is uncanny, or at least noncanny. Let's go with noncanny.— JayW
- These injury FACTS go against the whole THEORY that the Phillies are old, talentless and have the worst GM and manager in baseball. Get ready for the angry, insecure rants from Warbiscuit and his clueless minions....— The Pack Leader
- Well at least a few are gone on so we won't have to hear him rant on them anymore. Contreras is back in Cuba now taking advantage of the new rule allowing defectors to return home. Schneider has retired and Wiggy, Polly and Pierre signed elsewhere. Got younger but we have to see if we got better and healthier. As for the rants ending ,fargetaboutit. These guys live by the whine even when times were at there best or at least when most fans thought things were pretty darn good. But then again we are all fools and patsies, don't you know.
— DUDESKINS - ...and when the Phils go 72-90 this year, will you finally allow a thought that the team is over, done kaput?
If the Phils win the NL East, I'll be on here saying how I'm completely wrong and good for them.
If the Phils match my prediction, will you finally admit that management is not very good and the Phils are well and truly a below average?— fmMD - David the smart guys know this and appreciate this is philly's advantge along with LA, New York, Boston, and a few other similar markets...We can afford it, thank the lucky stars this isn't Pittsburgh where a mistake like that will set them back a decade.— robinlupe
- Good stuff Murph. The average ages of hitters and pitchers have come down some after 2010, with the losses of Raul, Moyer, and Oswalt. Howard and Utley last two years really skew the DL/salary number. What's the answer?... better conditioning? Subway as put money in Howard's pocket -- but has eating their subs kept him in better shape?— ExiledinFla
- Can't wait for the Florida State League to start again. Last year eight Phillies 40 man roster guys rehabbed while playing for the Clearwater Threshers during the regular season. The Threshers were used as a baseball MASH unit. The highlights were watching Michael Martinez rehab at third base for a game while Cody Asche sat and Laynce Nix got work at first base base while Jim Murphy, who still was able to lead the FSL in doubles, sat for three games.— Dull
- The average age of the roster has essentially remained constant, but I think if you would look at the average age of the highest paid players, it has increased. Oswalt, Howard, Utley, Contreras, Halladay -- all factor into this list.— dmurph003
- @robinlupe -- unfortunately, we have a GM that has set us back a decade. Can't imagine a big-market team being in worse shape. Even the Muts have a healthy superstar position player. Though he has been atrocious, I am pretty sure a real GM can get this straightened out fairly quickly. We do have Hamels!!— Copper34
- Take 20% of any teams starters out and they will not win as consistantely as when all are healthy. The Phils are not too od or untalented. They need to be healthy to play and they need to play to win.— jjthree
- Wow nice stat and shows the importance of injuries to this team, the injury payroll percentage is inversely proportional to how far the Phils have gone in that given year, 2008 World Series Champs (7.29%), 2009 World Series Runnerup (9.62%), 2010 NLCS loser (13.97%), 2011 NLDS loser (18.48%), 2012 no playoffs (19.12%). That's all you need to know right there. Stay healthy Phils!— kse
- Health is always the #1 factor in any professional sport. Unfortunately, these are professional athletes and most of them are not wimps, well, except for Polanco. They will play hurt, sometimes with various injuries all through the season that we don't even know about because we see them go out there on a nightly basis and play. The athlete understands this. It's their job, hurt or not. If you were to go down the 53 man roster of each Super Bowl team on Sunday and ask each of them if they were healthy, 98% of them would say no....but adrenaline counts for a lot, so do the PEDs. It usually is the healthiest teams that win. That's why some coaches lke to rest players that last week or two of the season. Get them a little fresher, less achy for the playoffs.— Mark1npt
- old ... injured .. can there be a correlation? nah, rube must suffer from bad luck.. who woulda thunk Contreras, Polanco, Ibanez, Howard, Utley, Halladay woud be getting old and their ability decline? the mysteries of the world puzzle the imbeciles among us— warbiscuit
- @kse....you are exactlt right....the best column to look at is the %payroll on the dl each year. The more the payroll on it, the worse the Phils end up....5 years running!!!!! That's more than a coincidence. It reflects how the Phils have allocated their payroll to those players who are their best, proportionately. Not all teams have their payroll aligned like this but the Phils do and it makes that one column tell the true story. It may not be the column that tells the story for other teams, but it is for the Phils.— Mark1npt
- Good posts Mark. I think the fact that they have played more games than anyone else in baseball from 2008-11 has something to do with their health as well.
— zubzub - This is an interesting table for showing that the Phils have not grown enormously older over the years although losing Jamie Moyer at one point might give the stats a bounce they might not deserve.
I don't know how to capture or put into perspective two phenomenon: 1) older players in the starting lineup who miss considerable time due to injury are replaced by younger players who lower the age stats and 2) the fact that on the Phils the older players are penciled in to the starting lineup while the younger players are depended on less because they are bench players.
There is a comparison that I saw of man games missed by team which for 2012 showed the Phils near but not at the top. The Nationals were actually higher even though they are a younger team. This suggested both that younger isn't always better when it comes to resisting injury but also that the Nats were better at overcoming injuries since they finished 17 games ahead of the Phils.— Claudio Vernight - @Claudio, your logic is flawed. The Nats weren't better at overcoming injuries just because they had more games on the dl and finished higher in the standings. All injuries are different in severity and in whether they are to your core players or not. If you compare apples to apples, the Phils probably did ok last year given the top players they lost and the lack of production from the 2nd and 3rd stringers, except for Kratz and Frandsen.— Mark1npt
- Apparently, Ruby and Chollie "the living fossil" just love Geritol eligable players, after all, Chollie is on the doorstep of 70 if he isn't already and the travesty of all this is....this cretin has input on who the Phillies acquire which would be like allowing Regis Philbin to select all the winners for American Idol. Example, to slap Domonic Brown in the face (again) by signing the anti-semitic, bush league Delmond Young......it says it all in florescent lettering....this organization is either inept beyond comprehension OR they are 100% corrupt. I vote for the latter because not even Monty, Giles or Ruben could really be THAT stupid:-)— daystrum
- Show any chart you want it won't change the fact that this team is OLD. No one gets younger after four ('08-'12) years.Only one young signing (C F )in four years STOP this is just aging.— tobyjoe
- Whether Howard is in the lineup or on DL, it's the same. No production.— 4thand10
- daystrum....this is the way it works.....the brass including Charles have a meeting. They discuss team needs, rp, lh pinch-hitter, etc......Amaro goes out and gets Charles a player in a category they need, boom. Charles has no say in who they trade for, who's traded out, etc.......this is all organizational stuff from the back room.....they get Charles the stuff, they go back in their room and they let it play out. Maybe they have another meeting the end of spring training and yet one more at the trade deadline. That's it.— Mark1npt
- Vathi - You use fancy words because you figure Philly fans won't understand you? You don't need to guess. Take 3 seconds and you would realize the only way replacing Moyer on the roster would result in a 2 year drop in average age would be if he was 50 and his replacement was zero.— NMPartners
- WOW you actually think I used fancy words? lol
No wonder you did't get what I was saying. BTW, last time I check Moyer was close to 50. Please educate yourself my friend so you don't believe the lies you read. Good luck.— vathi - When the player can't perform, he develops an "injury" that is aided and abetted by docs too scared to call the player a faker.— Ouwachon
- Rollins better have great range this year.
Young cannot move.— Ressler - DOCK THEIR PAY IF THEY ARE HURT.I LOSE PAY IF I CALL OFF.— bkflyers10
- I've got some math for you. Addition by subtraction. No Martinez, no Schneider and no Wiggington. That has to equate to more wins no matter who has replaced them.— LI PhilPhan
- Here's a thought....spend more money on the Athletic Training and Strength & Conditioning coaches.....as you cna see it pays off: http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6217004— philly13
- Looking forward. Obviously that chart shows a disturbing trend. As the team spends more money on payroll the players spend more time on the DL. There will always be "freak" accidents. Surely every member of the organization is doing what they can to reverse the trend this year. Look at a guy like Placido Polanco. He wasn't the same player after he was hit on the elbow by a Tim Hudson pitch. A team cannot be competitive if 20% of its payroll goes to players who cannot perform. This is the way I look at 2013. Management has done their part to increase payroll. The fans have done their part to support this team. Since '09 the players have come up short. Some players will enjoy success. There's potential for more RH power than the team has seen in a long, long time. The best teams have a balance of power. Fifteen wins per month equals fun baseball. The Phillies have come a long way since the end of the 2000 season. It's silly to predict anything. The irony of the situation is that the other three sports teams have been so bad of late the Phillies are still relevant to the casual Philly sports fan. Thanks Murph for sharing that information!— PhilsfaninNebraska
- Better to be lucky than good— beefbre
- I'd like to see an analysis of comparing age versus injuries in the Phils systems.
Perhaps it would give Rube some idea of when NOT to sign older players to long term deals.— fmMD - The only way the Phillies are going to win anything in the near future is with an infusion of young talent. Howard and Utley, even if healthy all year, will still only put up numbers which are substantially lower than when at their respective peaks. Same for Rollins. This Phillies team peaked in 2008 and has been going downhill ever since. It could be many years before we witness another Broad Street parade.
— SteveS11 - Just heard from my FBook friend Chris Coste who advised that Comcast will NOT be bringing him back. Bad move in my opinion. Much better analysst than Ben Davis.— NewMick314
- You Phonies are getting old. Thats why you get hurt all the time. Start to get younger. You won't go anywhere this year! You Phonies fans will be crying before mid-season...calling for the Eagles again. It gets old in Philly with your sports teams! Go New York!— MRD
- Latest ESPN ranking of farm systems has Phils ranked 27 out of 30.— warbiscuit
- gather round, chillun...bubba/granny's gonna tell you about O L D. half a lifetime ago i weighed 215lb (on a 5'10" frame) and looked like i was 75. i am now 75, weigh 150lb (still on a 5'10" frame) and look like i should've looked half a lifetime ago. what happened? well, i cut out meat, fish, dairy and alcohol, and replaced doctor drugs with organic vitamins and minerals. took up swimming, yoga and meditation. all this in addition to an hour's quick walk every morning, plus 40 minutes of hard cardio and a bit of weights at the gym 3-4 times a week, as well as periodic visits to the osteo for maintenance. granted, i don't have the drudgery of standing around first base a few hours each day thinking about my 25 mill salary and subway commercials. players get injured primarily because their training programs are antiquated. with the current knowledge of diet, body work and disciplines of mental acuity, plus modern training equipment, there is no reason - none - for a 21st century position player ever to get leg injuries, which accounts for the majority of their down time. wait, hang on - there is a reason, two in fact: lack of self-motivation, lack of professional pride, a couple of categories in which the phillies just may lead all of mlb. put that in your pipe and puff it, you young whipper-snappers.— bubba church & granny hamner
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High Cheese is your place for the best Phillies coverage from the Daily News.
David Murphy
Daily News Staff Writer
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