Matt Cain is worth $42 million more than Cole Hamels, or Why Jim Bowden Will Remain a Former GM
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Matt Cain is worth $42 million more than Cole Hamels, or Why Jim Bowden Will Remain a Former GM
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I'll admit: I just returned from 96 hours in New Orleans, so my head is rather sensitive to bright lights and loud noises. But what I saw when I opened up ESPN the Magazine this morning made my brain feel like Vince Wilfork's yoga mat. Apparently, former Nationals and Reds general manager Jim Bowden has added "ESPN Insider" to the numerous media posts he holds, and in a recent edition of the network's over-sized publication he handicapped next year's free agent crop, including two young starters who are sure to draw heavy interest if they hit the market. Those starters would be San Francisco's Matt Cain and your Cole Hamels.
In addition to breaking down the likelihood of both players returning to their teams, Bowden included a bid that he would make for each pitcher.
To Bowden's credit, you can at least make a logical argument for the five-year, $90 million bid for Hamels. In reality, there is no way in hell Hamels would earn less than $20 million a year if he hit the free agent market right now. But the case for not shelling out C.C. Sabathia money pretty much makes itself when you look at the history of such long-term deals. So the offer seems somewhat reasonable. . .until you get to the part where Bowden says he would offer one more year and $42 million more to Cain.
That's right. Bowden's bid for Cain was six years, $132 million.
Unfortunately, neither Bowden nor the magazine saw fit to explain why he would hand Cain $44 million more than Hamels. Maybe because such an argument did not fit in the flashy design of the page. Or maybe because such an argument cannot be made.
Look, you can make a case for offering Hamels five years and $90 million. I wouldn't make that case. But somebody could. And you can make a case for offering Cain six years and $134 million. Again, I wouldn't. But somebody could.
What nobody can do is offer a logical explanation for why he would offer Hamels five years and $90 million and Cain six years and $134 million.
Hamels is one year older than Cain. Here is how their performances compare over the last one, two, three, four and five seasons:
In 2011:
| Player | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| Cain | 2.88 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 221.2 | 123 | 1.083 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 2.84 |
| Hamels | 2.79 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 216.0 | 138 | 0.986 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 8.1 | 4.41 |
Last Two Years:
| Player | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| Cain | 3.01 | 66 | 5 | 2 | 445 | 124 | 1.083 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 2.87 |
| Hamels | 2.92 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 424.2 | 136 | 1.081 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 3.86 |
Last Three Years:
| Player | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| Cain | 2.97 | 99 | 9 | 2 | 662.2 | 132 | 1.115 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 2.68 |
| Hamels | 3.36 | 96 | 6 | 2 | 618.1 | 120 | 1.145 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 8.3 | 3.87 |
Last Four Years:
| Player | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| Cain | 3.17 | 133 | 10 | 3 | 880.1 | 128 | 1.177 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 2.39 |
| Hamels | 3.29 | 129 | 8 | 4 | 845.2 | 126 | 1.128 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 8.2 | 3.83 |
Last Five Years:
| Player | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| Cain | 3.26 | 165 | 11 | 3 | 1080.1 | 127 | 1.192 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 2.39 |
| Hamels | 3.31 | 157 | 10 | 4 | 1029.0 | 127 | 1.127 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 3.88 |
Again, Bowden offered no explanation for the disparity in his bids. The only rationale I can think of is health. Cain has averaged 33 starts over the last five years. Hamels has had some minor elbow issues. Even then, is $18 million a season much different than $22 million a season in terms of impact to your payroll in case of injury?
Take health out of the equation and there is no way you can argue that Cain's performance has been worth $4 million more per season.
zwarte piet...how long will you be allowed to post your irrelevant (and moronic) comments? warbiscuit...you gripe about Amaro's moves or lack of moves...well, don't be selfish...share your vast wealth of baseball knowledge with the rest of us...who would you have signed if you were GM? And since you have all the answers, why aren't you on the phone to Ruben? For God's sake, call him before he makes another move without your approval...— Buck Dharma- The stats are very comparable until you factor in that Cain plays in one of the better pitchers parks and Hamels plays in one of the better hitters parks. That makes Hamels stats more impressive. Sort of like comparing Halladay and Lee with Kershaw for Cy Young this year. Cain would NOT put up in the same numbers if half his starts were in the Bank every year. Sounds like Bowden just got a little random with his numbers. Haven't found his analysis to be very insightful in other ESPN columns he's done.— JimG
- buck --that's easy --should have saved much of $50 mil. by NOT signing overrated Paplebon and signed Madson instead; signed Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd and hit cleanup in Howard's absence (and if they would have gone overbudget, could have sought cheaper shortstop to Rollins $35 mil contract); and signed any of the dozen lefty relivers signing for $2-3 mil and not wasted time with Willis and Qualls --and should have signed Hamels to an elite contract commensurate with him finishing 5th in CY Young vote last yr and him having clear-cut best future of any player currently in Phils organization --such a no-brainer list of things to do, only clueless rube can;t figure out how to spend $170 mil.yr and get a prodcut that can win in post-season— warbiscuit
- Hamels has ZERO reasons to sign a contract right now. He knows full well he'll be the belle of the ball come free agency next year, so unless Amaro offers him completely stupid money ($24-26 million per year, multiple years) he's going to see what the market offers. No way he signs for less now than Haliday and Lee are already making.— DreamOn
- DreamOn = dead on. Well called.
And Cain and Hamels are worth the same money; Cain simply negotiated sooner and agreed to the contract while Hamels waits.— 24sDad - 24sDad = delusional. Poorly called.
Taking you seriously as the voice of reason makes about as much sense as trusting Charlie Sheen to run a pharmacy.— The Pack Leader - This is a good post by Murphy because I learned something: Hamels and Cain are more similar than I realized. I know they are both very good; didn't know how closely they compare. A 5-year, $95 million contract for Hamels is about right. If we fail to sign him and sign Cain instead, I could live with that. But not six years, $134 million.— eman
- Safe to say that BOTH Cain and Hamels will soon be VERY WEALTHY young men ...— FishFryFrank
- If Cain signs a contract extension, Hamels will have zero competition for most prominent free agent next year, further reducing the likelihood he re-signs now. Even if he and Cain both enter free agency, most teams are still going to prefer a dominant lefty starter over a dominant righty.— DreamOn
- Is it 132 million or 134 million?— ALJ
- What the F is "ERA+"?— sickoflosing
- First of all, no one seemed to mention the fact that Cole is left handed, and hence will be paid a premium vs Cain (who is RH).
Secondly, This is just the latest in a long string of evidence to explain why Bowden writes a column for a monthly magazine, and is no longer a GM in this league.— tburt17 - Warbiscuit....You're right as rain.G.M.Has ruined a once good team.— tobyjoe
- What planet are you from?! The Phillies have won 5 divisions in a row and are expected to win number 6 this year and be a World Series contender for the fifth year in a row! They had the highest attendance in baseball last year and currently have the second highest payroll in baseball. Stop being a spoiled baby...you make the rest of us look bad. — The Pack Leader
- I saw Jim Bowden in a DC bar about 4-5 years ago- he was very obviously over served....— Keep The Change
