Martinez to start Game 2: Breaking down the decision
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Martinez to start Game 2: Breaking down the decision
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Say this for Charlie Manuel:
The World Series hasn't even started yet, and he is already making the type of brazen moves that have marked the first couple of rounds of the playoffs. In starting Pedro Martinez in Game 2 -- a move he announced earlier this morning on his weekly radio appearance in Philadelphia -- he is taking a huge risk. Martinez has never started in the new Yankee Stadium. He has never faced this new Yankees team. He will be pitching in weather that is more than 20 degrees cooler than he faced in his only other start of the postseason.
And Cole Hamels?
Say what you will about his struggles this season, he is still the defending World Series MVP, and he has still shown the ability to dominate at times. The easy call for Manuel would have been to cross his fingers and send Hamels out for Game 2. If he falters? Well, that's on him. But now, if Pedro Martinez stumbles in Game 2 and Hamels thrives in Game 3, the Phillies won't be able to pitch Hamels again until Game 7. And they could be forced into a situation where they bring Cliff Lee back on short rest.
But like most of Manuel's moves, this one has firm roots in logic. The Phillies' likely thinking? Trust -- Martinez has built it this season and throughout his career. Hamels has eroded it with both his performance and his body language on the mound. At the first hint of trouble, lefthander J.A. Happ and righthander Joe Blanton will be ready to fill in for Martinez. And if things really implode, Cliff Lee coming back on short rest for Game 4 is an option, giving Blanton or Happ an extra day to prepare for action in Games 5 and 6.
But the Phillies also could be hedging their bet. If Hamels pitches well in Game 3, they could have the option of bringing him back on short rest for Game 6. But if Martinez pitched well in Game 3, he likely still would have to wait until Game 7 to return to the mound. If both pitch well, the discussion is meaningless. Same goes for both struggling.
As I'm sure Manuel will explain to us later today, this was not an easy decision. The cases for Pedro and against Pedro were equally compelling.
Here is a look at some of the things the Phillies likely considered:
I. The case for Pedro
1) Martinez threw seven scoreless innings in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers, his only postseason start this season.
2) Cole Hamels has allowed nine hits and three home runs in 15 postseason at-bats against left-handed hitters, not a good omen at Yankee Stadium and its notoriously short right field fence.
3) Hamels hasn't lasted longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his three postseason starts, and has allowed at least three runs in all three of them.
4) Pitching Martinez in Game 2 will take some pressure off of Hamels, who admitted earlier in this season that he was expecting too much out of himself. Hamels has never pitched a postseason game when trailing in a series, something that could very well happen in the World Series with the Phillies due to face C.C. Sabathia in Game 1.
5) Martinez has displayed the willingness and ability to pitch on both sides of the plate, something that is imperative against a Yankees line-up that needs to be taken out of its comfort zone. Martinez has shown a better ability to pitch a guy like Alex Rodriguez inside, while avoiding the type of mistake that would result in a home run flying out of Yankee Stadium.
6) Martinez has two breaking pitches to supplement his change-up, and has shown a willingness and ability to throw his curveball at any point in the count, which puts him in a position to limit left-handed sluggers like Mark Texeira and Hideki Matsui. Hamels' curve ball is more an accessory than a true out pitch.
7) Starting Martinez will give the Phillies a more balanced rotation. Starting Lee and Hamels in Games 1 and 2 would not only give their opponent back-to-back games against lefty starters, it would open the possibility of throwing lefty starters in Games 4, 5 and 6, should Manuel elect to give rookie J.A. Happ the start in Game 4. New York faced lefthanded starters in back-to-back games 13 times this season, and in three straight games four times. In those instances, when facing a lefty starter for the first time, the Yankees scored 72 runs while hitting .278 and drawing 49 walks. The second day, they scored 74 runs while hitting .303 and drawing 59 walks. And in the four times they played a third straight game against a lefty starter, they scored 26 runs while hitting .327 and drawing 23 walks.
8) Hamels is better suited to start a game on short rest. Although he has not done so in his career, he said earlier this postseason he felt he would be able to. If Martinez falters in Game 2 and Hamels thrives in Game 3, the Phillies could decide to start Hamels in Game 6 on short rest. But if Hamels faltered in Game 2 and Martinez thrived in Game 3, the Phillies would be forced to wait for a potential Game 7 to call on Martinez again.
9) If Martinez struggles early, the Phillies could call on J.A. Happ for long relief, giving the Yankees a much different look. They also have Joe Blanton available to step in.
10) Martinez currently owns a 14-inning consecutive scoreless innings streak in the postseason (Mariano Rivera holds the postseason record with 33 1/3).
11) He has started five postseason games against the Yankees, two in the Bronx, and has lasted six innings in all five. In 14 overall postseason appearances, he is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA.
II. The case against Pedro
1) His seven scoreless innings came in a pitcher's park, in beautiful weather (mid-80's and sunny), on a day where neither team managed to hit the ball.
2) Lefties hit .276 with 12 extra base hits against him during the regular season. Five of the seven home runs he allowed were hit by lefties.
3) Martinez hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a start since Sept. 13.
4) Relegating Hamels to Game 3 could destroy whatever amount of his confidence remains after a shaky regular season and postseason.
5) Martinez went 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in five regular season starts at Citizens Bank Park, compared with 3-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts on the road. Now, he is lined up for two starts on the road.
6) Before his NLCS outing against the Dodgers, Martinez's last postseason experience came in 2004, back when he was still in his prime.
7) In his five postseason starts against the Yankees, he has a 4.27 ERA, not including a relief appearance in which he allowed two runs in one inning. And all five of those starts came when he was in his prime.
8) Regardless of Hamels struggles, he has dominated at times this season. And the Phillies best chance for winning this series could lie in him re-capturing that magic. After allowing 17 runs in 21 1/3 innings in his first four starts of August, Hamels pitched eight scoreless innings against the Pirates. Five days after allowing six runs in six innings against the Nationals on May 30, he pitched a five-hit shutout against the Dodgers. And, of course, there was his start at Yankee Stadium on May 24, when he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings of the Phillies' 4-3 win.
9) Hamels performed well against the Yankee in May, allowing three runs in six innings.
10) If the Phillies elect to start Cliff Lee in Games 4 and 7 on three days rest, Hamels might only get one start this World Series. Then again, depending on your perspective, that could be considered a positive.
^
The Yankees have yet to announce their rotation. But C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have both had success pitching on short rest in their careers. The Phillies have also said that they would be willing to pitch Cliff Lee on three days rest. I don't expect them to announce their intention to do so - or not do so - until after the first couple games of the series. Here is a look at two potential pitching match-ups, one with Cliff Lee on short rest and one without:
Match-ups, Without Lee on Short Rest
Game 1 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Game 2 - RHP Pedro Martinez at RHP A.J. Burnett
Game 3 - LHP Andy Pettitte at LHP Cole Hamels
Game 4 - LHP C.C. Sabathia at RHP Joe Blanton
Game 5 - RHP A.J. Burnett at LHP Cliff Lee
Game 6 - RHP Pedro Martinez at LHP Andy Pettitte/RHP Chad Gaudin
Game 7 - LHP Cole Hamels at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Match-ups, With Lee on Short Rest
Game 1 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Game 2 - RHP Pedro Martinez at RHP A.J. Burnett
Game 3 - LHP Andy Pettitte at LHP Cole Hamels
Game 4 - LHP C.C. Sabathia at LHP Cliff Lee
Game 5 - RHP A.J. Burnett at RHP Joe Blanton
Game 6 - RHP Pedro Martinez at LHP Andy Pettitte/RHP Chad Gaudin
Game 7 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Pedro is best in warm weather, too bad LAA was so bad.— wiseoldowl- I heard Charlie live on 1210 and then flipped over to 610 - it was funny to hear them debate it not knowing that the news had already broken on another AM station.— DreamShake
- I LOVE IT. We are going for their heart. I keep hearing idiots on the radio saying well maybe we will win 1 of the first 2 games in NY. This move proves Charlie is not scared. He wants both of those games.— cuso20
- Dear Phillies and Philadelphia, After you read today's online NY Post (who savaged "their" team after the 2004 ALCS), please feel free to knock that city full of arrogant d-bags on their butts. I have a permanent bet on the ALCS in the Series, but I'll be delighted to see your Phils repeat. Go get 'em.— Soxfan61
- At this point both Hamels and Pedro have the same potential for both a great outing and a blow up. I think it's a wise move by charlie. Give the ball to the guy you think will be up for it. Maybe he knows Cole needs that home crowd behind him and that Pedro will not be intimidated. Plus you know no matter who is pitching Happ and Blanton will be ready to come in from the second inning on. The key to game two will be our hitters getting to AJ Burnett. We do that and— boredjake
- if it wasn't for Cole's MVP last year, he wouldn't even sniff a spot in this rotation, if you're that big of a Hamels fan just be happy that he's still on the roster. A proven winner??? Pedro Martinez is your proven winner. How many times does he have to show you he still has the stuff?— Hall
- That's the way I saw it. Pedro goes in game 2, gets 6 days rest for game 6 if necessary, and Hamels gets five days rest returning in game 7 if necessary. Split the lefties and Blanton gets game 4. L-R-L-R-L-R-L— SJJim
- Charlie has earned the benefit of the doubt (unlike that arrogant fat guy across the street). So, of course it's the right move.— Voytas
Comment removed.- I don't know....I just don't know. Either of those guys pitching in that little bandbox against that line-up scares me. Phils better bring their bats.
- The Yanks have CC,AJ, and Andy all set to go 1-2-3. The other team has Lee (good pitcher),Pedro (has been), and Hamels (never was). Vegas has the Yanks as 2-1 favorites. Philly fans,this a'int a Rocky rerun. Nothing says the Phils cannot win but if you're a betting man take a look at the odds and the makeup of the two teams before you put it on the line. In the real old days they used to say;'never bet against Joe Louis,Notre Dame, or the Yankees". It still holds. Good luck.— kenvan
- VERY GOOD MOVE WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT IF IT GOES 7 GAMES, WILL CHARLIE PUT IN HAMELS? HOPE NOT!— tellsitlikeitis
- Pedro will be psyched and Hamels will have one less bat to worry about in Philly with no DH. As for Game 7, at that point it is all hands on deck. Mickey Lolich came back on two days rest to pitch a complete game vs Gibson in 1968 WS so these high priced pansies could certainly suck it up if need be— davi
- Comment removed.
- kenvan, you sound like a typical Yankees fan...living in the past. I think I'd bet against Louis and Notre Dame about now. I'm thinking that they no longer apply, so...
