Making some sense of the Laynce Nix deal
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Making some sense of the Laynce Nix deal
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
At first glance, the signing of Laynce Nix to a two-year deal, which a baseball source said would likely happen this week after veteran journeyman takes a physical, might not make a heck of a lot of sense. Aside from birth date, the 31-year-old Nix doesn't figure to give the Phillies any more production in left field than they got out of 39-year-old Raul Ibanez last season.
Put it this way: In a 2011 season that was by far the worst campaign of his 10 years as an everday player, Ibanez still put up better numbers than Nix has posted in his career.
Ibanez in 2011: .245 batting average, .289 on base percentage, .419 slugging percentage, 106 strikeouts, 20 home runs.
Nix in his career: .244 batting average, .288 on base percentage, .430 slugging percentage, and an average of 120 strikeouts and 17 home runs per 162 games played.
But let's try to figure out what the Phillies are thinking, since the deal is not yet official and they will not tell us for themselves.
First, rule out any thought of Nix playing an everyday role in left. He has reached 400 plate appearances just once in his career. John Mayberry Jr. is definitely the better option to enter the season as the regular in left.
Second, rule out any thought of a straight platoon in left, at least to start the season. Mayberry performed just as well, if not better, than Nix did against righties in 2011:
Mayberry vs. RHP in 2011: .250/.330/.455 with seven home runs, 37 strikeouts and 18 walks in 176 plate appearances.
Nix vs. RHP in 2011: .263/.306/.475 with 16 home runs, 71 strikeouts and 19 walks in 320 plate appearances against righties).
So where does Nix fit, other than a left-handed power option to supplement Jim Thome and give Mayberry or Hunter Pence the occasional day off against a tough righty?
Maybe at first base, where Nix started six games for the Nationals last season. Although the Phillies have maintained that they expect Ryan Howard back for Opening Day, the experiences of other athletes who have suffered ruptured Achilles tendons suggest he could miss the first couple months of the season. In that case, the combination of Nix and Ty Wigginton at first base could provide a solid enough platoon to fill some of the offensive void:
Wigginton vs. LHP in 2011: 127 PA, 108 AB, 28 H, 3 2B, 5 HR, 17 BB, 2 HBP, 25 SO
Nix vs. RHP in 2011: 320 PA, 297 AB, 78 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 19 BB, 1 HBP, 71 SO
Combine the 2011 platoon splits of the two players and the result is a .262/.324/.462 line with 21 home runs and 96 strikeouts in 447 plate appearances.
Although that still presents a drop-off from Howard's production, it is not as steep as you might think. In 644 plate appearances in 2011, Howard hit .253/.346/.488 with 33 home runs and 172 strikeouts. Extend the Nix/Wigginton production over 644 plate appearances and they finish with 30 home runs and 138 strikeouts. So you would actually get better contact and roughly equivalent power at the expense 13 fewer times reaching base.
Now, back to the head-scratchers:
-Nix would certainly bring more power to a bench that already includes Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton and, presumably, Ben Francisco. But in 152 career plate appearances as a pinch hitter he has hit just .187/.276/.269 with two home runs and 40 strikeouts in 134 at-bats.
-You might think Nix's power would play better in Citizens Bank Park, but he has hit just 4-for-36 with one double, no home runs and 10 strikeouts there in his career. Of course, that is a small sample size.
-Nix is atrocious against lefties, carrying a .181/.235/.271 line with two home runs and 74 strikeouts in 199 career at-bats. So again, forget about the everyday job.
-Nix is a career .141 hitter with two strikes.
If Nix is the last offensive piece the Phillies plan on adding outside of short stop, it will have been a puzzling offseason. In Ruben Amaro Jr.'s end-of-the-season press conference, he expressed a desire to put together better at-bats, particularly with two strikes. But the three hitters the Phillies have added are all the opposite kind of hitter: Wigginton is a career .185 two-strike hitter; Thome is a career .172 two-strike hitter. And Nix is a career .141 two-strike hitter. Rather than pursuing the type of veteran contact hitters that gave them fits against the Cardinals, the Phillies have added two swing-and-miss power hitters to go with a power-hitting utility man in decline. None will provide much in the way of options if Mayberry ends up struggling in an everyday role.
The moves will make a lot more sense if the Phillies have something bigger in mind. Like, perhaps, the stealth signing of switch-hitting star Carlos Beltran, or a trade for another proven corner outfielder (or the addition of Michael Cuddyer, whom they targeted early on). In that case, Mayberry would slide back to the rotational role he played last season, bringing speed, power and versatility to the veterans on the bench (Wigginton, Thome, Nix and perhaps Francisco). The Phillies would suddenly have plenty of depth at every position, with Wigginton able to fill in for Placido Polanco and Chase Utley and Mayberry and Nix rotating into first base and the outfield.
Stay tuned for the verdict.
Wait until he is done. Has to be more going om— Ssteve115- Nix was not signed to become our starting left fielder. Nix was signed precisly because he did NOT demand to be a starting left fielder. He got two years, probably 1 more than most teams were offering. And he wanted to be on a contender. Now that we know there's a big choice looming in A. Ramirez vs. Rollins, Mayberry appears to be the leading guy in LF when Howard returns. Which makes our bench in Wigginton, Nix and Thome looking pretty darn good. Lots better than last year. It also means Domonic Brown truly will get 2012 to learn left field at AAA, unless he reverts to form or Mayberry and Nix get hurt.— eman
- jpelle, are you aware that the Phillies had the 2nd fewest strikeouts in both 2011 and 2010?— schmenkman
- A poor hitting above-average fielding outfielder who can not place the bat on the ball consistently and strikes out regularly. He will fit in this lineup very well. They may set the team strikeout record this year. Signed for 2 years, why?— jpelle36
- NIX on Nix. JMJ will exceed him.— BEMiller
- I wouldn't want Reyes anyway with his me first attitude and injury track record. We all know J-Rol is coming back so I would move on to other issues...like 3rd base.— athousandgods
- ATTENTION PEOPLE SOMEONE POSTED JOSE REYES HAS SIGNED A HUGE CONTRACT WITH THE MARLINS STOP THINKING THE PHILS CAN GET HIM.HE IS A MARLIN NOW.— tobyjoe
- The team that won 102 games and lost the first round in the playoffs look better than this RAGTAG bunch of AARP players RUBE is signing.WTH?— tobyjoe
- Too early to judge these acquisitions in a vacuum. We will know more in a couple of months, maybe in a couple of weeks. I suspect we are trying to get a proven hitter to buttress our offense.— JohnFC
- Is it true that Prince Fielder can play shortstop because he is faster than most 270-pounders?— orange rhino
- But....since Philladelphia sports is controlled by shadow (underworld) figures, imbeciles like Manuel and the Eagles Reid will always be their preferred field coaches and managers. Makes a lot of sense huh.....to pay millions for players than put clueless cretins in charge of field tactics? Great thinking! The only possible explanation is, although the mob figures bet on the teams to lose the big championships, they still want to sell tickets, hence, the high price players. What a shame and insult to the fans of the city of sisterly love:-)— daystrum
- We don't need the input of the cool aid drinkers. I don't care if RAJ signs Cuddyer or Beltran tommorrow. Nix is a stiff. There is never a need to sign replacement level players to a two year deal. This sums up what Amaro said about himself perfectly the other day "I'm not a stat guy". So basically Ruben thinks he can tell whether a guy is good 100% through the eyeball test. That is ridiculous coming from a Standford graduate. I have no problem using conventional scouting in tandem with advanced statistics even valuing conventional scount more but its obvious to me RAJ doesn't use any kind of advanced statistics at all. The sad thing is that regular run of the mill stats show Nix is a gigantic stiff.— brannigan73
- Am I simplifying it too much by thinking that if you can get the same numbers out of a guy 8 years younger for 1.25 mil a year rather than someone 8 years older at 11 mil a year makes perfect sense?— beagle29
- If the mob didn't control Phillies sports, this is what would happen. Manuel and Reid would be gone! Amaro's priorities (if he had an ounce of integrity and ethics) would be going all out for a younger, power hitting third baseman, and catcher, then signing Rollins (in the absence of anyone else) securing Hamels, and re-dedicating his commitment to "carefully" bringing up Domonic Brown who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Ibanez and cutting garbage like Joe Beer-gut Blanton, Herndon and Conteras then free up more cash for another position.— daystrum
- Nix hits lefties about the same as Howard yet no one (except me ) wants to platoon Howard.— farley
- WHERE IS DOMONIC BROWN THE INVISIBLE MAN? He has to be a better option to Tome, Nix and Cuddyer - huh?
Lets not forget that Amaro and Manuels true pay master is the shadowy figure who bets on the Phils to lose - that explains everything:-) Same goes for Andy Reid!— daystrum - Signing Nix makes less sense than signing Thome. Amaro should be spending his time and money addressing the needs at shortstop and third base.— pajamas
- Forget about Pujols at third. Even if he could play it every day now (doubtful), think he'd able to in 4 years, when Howard is still under contract at 1st? You don't even need to look at finances to know that move makes no sense and will not happen. And clearly the finances don't work either.— Phils Phan 28
What were Werth's stats before he joined the Phils? Maybe someone in the organization thinks his swing can be fixed etc etc . . .
— Leegles
yes..because that is what teams close to winning titles need to be worrying themselves with..fixing swings of career mendoza line hitters.- Does Pujols want to play 3B?— IdahoMoose
- Good signing. Phils now have a lot of power on the bench with Thome, Wigginton and Nix unlike last year with Valdez, Martinez, Gload, Pete Orr. Charlie will play the veteran bench guys more so hopefully the starters will be able to rest more this year.— zeke128
- The Phils will save money with Nix over Ibanez which could be used for another deal. I've seen Charlie on tv several times the last 2 weeks and he looks awfully happy, does he know something we don't yet?— atp2007
- Hey Murph,
Any truth that the phils are in on Aramis Ramierez as tweeted by Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post?— anp27 - Wouldn't it be a hoot if RAJ signed Pojols and started him at 3rd? The Cards did that for a while last season.— Bruno Sammartino
- Something has to be "in the works." Can't believe that this is the team they take to spring training. Cuddyer should be in the works and a SS to take Rollins place should the Phils not sign Jimmy.— walt1
- A strange move by our PHILLIES I would not of made this move. I can only hope the PHIOLLIES have a major move coming. We need a Short stop and Reyes is out. maybe as bearsfriend said Hanley Ramirez throws a fit and gets traded rather than moving over to third... Iwould like to see him as a PHILLIE I think hewould be a better player for a team that really hasa chance to win it all!
— srcdaddy1216 - Good move. It's good rotational depth against right handers. Has some pop. No sense comparing his stats to Ibanez's since Raul's numbers will precipitously decline due to him being in his 40s. Beyond that, it's healthy for a team to turn over it's roster. Keeping a 40 year-old Ibanez around for another year or two doesn't make much sense.— guyguy4
- By obtaining the lefty bat of Nix cheaply to replace Ibanez, it opens the door for Amaro to make one key acquisition for this year. We've all seen Amaro work quietly and brilliantly over the past few years. Shortstop and third base are spots where this acquisition could happen. Dont discount the Phillies going after Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd and then trading Polanco for what they can get for him. Unloading Ibanez, Oswalt and Lidge from last years payroll is 40 million dollars. While there are increases in salary to some of the players.. especially Lee.. there is money to sign Rollins and Aramis Ramirez should they choose to do so. Then again, Amaro could choose to find someone new at SS who might be a better leadoff option than Rollins who's on base percentage has been lousy of late.— bradco
- It sounds to me like this is a last-resort insurance policy if Dom Brown fails to step forward in 2012.— Bobby G
- My favorite "clutch" stat is batting average with runners in scoring position. Nix has shown the inability to hit with runners in scoring position with his career .217 average. On the other hand Ibanez has a career .298 RISP avg. for example. Nix has not shown the ability to merit being on the roster of any team that is serious about winning a World Series!— Dull
- WOnder if Hanley would now be an option with Jose going to FL?— PhillyInExile
- I'm hoping this is an "organizational depth" move. Is there any truth to the rumor that the deal is conditional on Nix dropping the pointless "y" in his first name? I loved seeing Nix come up in a key spot against the Phillies...and whiffing!— frankenslade
- The good news is that Mayberry gets a real chance and that Amaro did not unnecessarily go after a big-deal free agent. The bad news is that we have another big-swing-and-big-miss player. The philosophy is that if you put enough big bats in a lineup somebody's going to pop one. They often do, but when facing good pitching it's usually a solo shot. Let's see how many games Hamels loses 3-1 or 2-1, likely with no runs scored by the Phils after the 6th inning.— JayW
- the only people who are puzzled are those who think the Rube has a clue - open secret to anyone who observes this amateur overmatched clown --he doesn't— warbiscuit
Another roster spot wasted. There aren't any big deals in the works because you can't just keep adding people like it's September. I'd rather have Gload than this guy. They won't be stupid enough to dump Valdez's glove, will they? Sorry, but Amaro's moves plain stink this off-season regardless of how you spin it.— Sam Crow- It comes down to money, as it always does, and playing time. Guys like Cuddyer and Willingham aren't willing to come here and compete for playing time against Mayberry, when Howard returns. They want to start. A guy like Nix or Ryan Ludwick will come here, play on a contender, make a few million a year -- if they get at least two years. Which is exactly what Nix got. I believe Amaro when he says Polanco is his starting 3B. Polly is a Gold Glove 3B who is a fine No. 2 hitter and an outstanding 7 hitter. If our lineup is set, which it might be, signing Nix clears the way for Jose Reyes, in my mind. I'm willing to bet right now Amaro is telling Rollins' agent: It's three years for Jimmy with a club option fourth -- oh, and we're talking to Reyes' agent, right now.— eman
- Does this mean that Michael Cuddyer is off the board? That Nix is a much cheaper option? Except for Papelbon - I don't see any reason to believe that this year's version of the Phillies will be any better than last years - except a year older.— jackcalhoun
- Safe to say, Jack. After all, how many 102-win teams in history improved the following year.
By the way, Cuddyer is deaf in his left ear and has played all of 15 games on the left side in the past 7 years.— schmenkman - I live in DC and watched Nix play last year. He is a good bench player/part-timer with some pop, exactly what Ross Gload was not last year. I agree with those who advise chilling out. RAJ is not done.— Carmine
- Schmenkman, you make too much sense for all these armchair GMs and general know-it-alls. They have a hard time digesting facts.— Russ
- Relax, people. This is simply a depth/bench/security signing...not an everyday player signing. Mayberry (R) is replacing Raul (L), and Nix (L) is replacing Franciso (R). Our bench is now Thome, Wigginton, and Nix....last year it was Gload, Martinez, and Francisco; I think its very fair to say that this area has been upgraded. There is still more work to do (SS, a utlity OF/IF with speed (Punto?), and Cole extension)...and Ruben will get it done.— Phront_Runner
- I bet Reyes will steal at least 30 - 40 bases with his team either winning big, or losing big...Also expect plenty of steals of 3rd base with 2 outs...I'm really happy the Phillies didn't sign him...He's not a winner in my book.— drjimmy
- well, if the team fails again to make it to the WS, then this will be RAJ last year at the helm. I guess we can all look forward to that.— ESFjellin
- When you look at the acquisitions so far, along with the likely retention of Valdez over Martinez, you have to wonder who would pinch run on this team?— jfdatl
- Hey, if a Nix/Wiggy platoon at 1st can hit 10 points higher with 50% of the Ks, don't we come out wayyyy ahead? Sounds like Amaro just remade the roster to me!— Mark1npt
- "Wigginton is a career .185 two-strike hitter; Thome is a career .172 two-strike hitter. And Nix is a career .141 two-strike hitter."
---
A little context would be nice: the NL overall average with two strikes is .176. The Phillies in 2011 were at .182. The 2011 Cardinals? .195. So yes, the Phillies are not going to be much better in this area based on the deals made so far.
Regarding the need to "spark the offense", I try to keep in mind that Rollins, Utley, Mayberry, Pence and company (including Howard) were the highest-scoring offense in the NL from the time Utley returned in May.— schmenkman - Perspective is good. Howard hit .178 when he was behind in the count last year. — jtj06
- What were Werth's stats before he joined the Phils? Maybe someone in the organization thinks his swing can be fixed etc etc . . .— Leegles
- A repaired Gload would have been a much better fit.— NewMick314
- The only good thing I can see coming out of the Nix signing is he's a cheap signing. Again, not a young guy and another lefty. What was Amaro thinking????— rolenfan
- The only answer to the issue of sparking this offense, after the signings of Medicare-ready Thome and 30+ Wigginton and Nix, is to sign Jose Reyes instead of J-Roll. Reyes understands the importance of getting on base. You might hate him but he is the only thing that's going to save this offense. Ruben continues to give Charlie a cast of hard-swinging slow runners with little ability to take a pitch when necessary. Last year's problem still remains, especially if Rollins stays. I don't like Reyes at all, but I hate the thought of watching a replay of the 2011 season in every Phillies at-bat in 2012.— Richie Allen
- Not in this lifetime..Reyes inked a 6 year, $106 million deal...Hopefully, he plays 70-80 games a year...If not, plenty of pitchers will make mistakes worrying about Reyes on base... that Morrison and Stanton will hit 500 feet....Maybe Hanley Ramirez throws a fit and gets traded rather than moving over to third... — bearsfriend
Comment removed.- WTF?— tsump
- I agree that something else is in-store...This is another economical move and a decent acquisition...guy plays hard with grit (he looks like a rockem-sockem robot)...This could spell goodbye to Ben Fran, or secures a spot in leftfield for Dom Brown in Lehigh Valley....to boost numbers and become a commodity again.....So far we've been fed alot of appetizers so far as far as bats go....I'm still looking for something to sick my teeth into.— bearsfriend
- Do you pronounce his name LAY-nce or LA-nce? Well, Nix that.
I like LuckyNucky optimism - that RAJ is 'up to something' - the pieces somewhat make sense, particularly from a character, bench POV, however, agreed there are still serious holes and what-if's to account for. Spring training looks like a challenging time with lots of players pushing others to be better. We'll see if it all makes sense next October, I guess.— 24sDad - When you put it that way Murph, it all makes sense. If Amaro thought it was smart to re-up Howard for 5 years $125 million, then he's gotta like Nix, another guy who can't hit lefties and is helpless with two strikes. You can't have enough of them if you want to make it home early on game nights.— jtj06
- The only thing I can think of is that Nix came cheaper than Ibanez would come.— SteveS11
- "give Mayberry or Hunter Pence the occasional day off against a tough righty" When did Mayberry when a full-time job in LF?
"it will have been a puzzling offseason. In Ruben Amaro Jr.'s end-of-the-season press conference, he expressed a desire to put together better at-bats, particularly with two strikes." You weren't paying attention to what he said. He said he wanted his hitter to have better approaches at the plate. He didn't say he wanted to replace a bunch of the guys in the line-up to do this.
— JimG - I cannot believe we gave this guy a major league deal, much less a 2-year major league deal. Makes no sense yet. RAJ better have something up his sleeve...— leeal02
- I cannot believe we gave this guy a major league deal, much less a 2-year major league deal. Makes no sense yet. RAJ better have something up his sleeve...— leeal02
- I still believe RAJ is up to something... It can't end here because the pieces are not making a lot of sense. SS, 3rd Base, are still question marks.— LuckyNucky
