Posted: Tuesday, September 22, 2009, 9:31 AM | 41 comments |
 

Magic Number. . .Still Six
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Thanks to the Braves' beat-down of the Mets last night, the Phillies enter today's doubleheader against the Marlins with a magic number of six over both the Marlins and the Braves. That means they need a combination of six wins and Marlins losses to eliminate the Fish, and six wins and Braves losses to eliminate the Braves. Crunch those numbers, and they can clinch as soon as Thursday in Milwaukee, although it would require the Braves losing their last two games at Citi Field and the Phillies (87-61) sweeping this three-game set against Florida.

Every Phillies loss or Braves win moves the potential clinch-date back a day.

The earliest a Phillies team has clinched a division since the days of the 162-game schedule was 1976, when they clinched in their 155th game.

Thursday will be their 152nd game, Friday their 153rd, Saturday their 154th.

Other notes of interest for today:

1) Brett Myers is scheduled to be in Philadelphia, where team doctor Michael Ciccotti will examine his sore shoulder.

2) Because Cliff Lee threw just 52 pitches in a rain-shortened outing Sunday, there is a chance the Phillies bring him back earlier than Saturday, when his turn in the rotation arrives. If the Phillies decided to start him on Friday on normal rest, it would enable them to get Pedro Martinez another day to rebound from the still neck that knocked him from Saturday's game after just three innings.

3) Today's doubleheader starts at 4:10 p.m. Joe Blanton is pitching the first game, followed by Jamie Moyer in the nightcap.

4) Raul Ibanez enters today hitting .316 with a .381 on base percentage with four home runs, eight RBI and 16 strikeouts in 63 at-bats over his last 16 games. In his 27 previous games, Ibanez hit .177 with a .262 on base percentage with one home run, four RBI and 30 strikeouts in 96 at-bats (Aug. 1 through Sept. 3).

5) Carlos Ruiz was hopeful that he would be able to play today after sustaining a sprained wrist in Friday night's win over the Braves. If Ruiz is unable to go, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle the catching duties in tonight's doubleheader. I don't think there is any way Charlie Manuel asks Paul Bako to catch 18 consecutive innings. But it is also highly unlikely that he would send September call-up Paul Hoover out to catch Jamie Moyer, who uses a different set of signals than most pitchers. If Ruiz is unable to go, I'd look for Hoover to start the first game.

6) A topic of discussion amongst some writers the other night: Who is the one position player the Phillies can least afford to lose to injury? To me, the answer is Jimmy Rollins, given the three unique skill sets he brings to the field - a switch-hitting leadoff hitter playing a Gold Glove short stop -- as well as the options the Phillies have for replacing him. A close second in Chase Utley. Ryan Howard has been on fire the last couple of months, but Greg Dobbs provides a much more solid alternative at the plate and in the field than the Phillies could find for Rollins or Utley.
Posted by David Murphy @ 9:31 AM  Permalink | 41 comments
41
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:14 AM, 09/22/2009
    Tire ads...still driving me insane
    — MFPhils
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:24 AM, 09/22/2009
    I don't know, I find it hard to believe that Rollins is the player the team can least afford to lose. I mean, he gets on-base less than 30% of the time as a lead-off hitter, while Utley is the number 3 hitter (which is more important to the team) who by all metrics is a great defensive player and who has been a much better offensive player than Rollins. He either the 2nd or 3rd best player in the NL. He has over 30 HR and 20 SB (w/o getting caught either, which is amazingly good). The question would be who would you rather replace with Bruntlett (since he is the back-up at both of those spots). I would rather have him play shortstop and keep Utley in the line-up. So I disagree with you about that. But thanks for your coverage, especially at 9:30 on a day where games don't begin until 4.
    — spin cycle
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:27 AM, 09/22/2009
    Sorry, but without Howard, this race is much closer...Since bringing him up, our late summers have been great vs. the prior days when the Eagles were on everybody's mind by mid-July. PK PS: As long as Bruntlett isn't our only option at ss, Vic goes into the lead-off hole and we don't miss a beat (this season anyway), though Rollins has had to hit very well in the second half to get his avg. up to .240!
    — PhillyTheKid
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:41 AM, 09/22/2009
    Rollins and Utley are very good, but Howard is putting up numbers that are historic. He is only the 3rd player to put up 4 or more seasons with at least 40 home runs and 140 RBIs, without performance enhancing drugs. Howard, Griffey Jr., and Ruth. Dobbs is such a far drop off, he shouldn't even be in the same sentence as Howard. Victorino can hit leadoff, Werth can be a good 3rd hitter, but there is no other player on this team that can put up the numbers Howard is putting up in the cleanup spot. There have been games this year, last week at the Braves, that Howard won the game for us, I don't think Rollins has won any games this year. And I love Rollins, but Howard has the chance to be the best power hitter ever, maybe not total numbers because he started late, but his per season numbers can be better than anyone ever!!!
    — souderton
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:46 AM, 09/22/2009
    Utley IS a great player, of that there is no doubt,,, but replacing J Rolls GLOVE would be an impossibility. You would rather have Burntlet at SHORT RATHER THAN 2ND?? Wow,, have you watched any phillies games "ever". Can you see Bruntlet making the play that J Roll made to clnch the division last year ?? Maybe you don't understand the value of having a Great defensive shortstop. Chase is good no doubt but great defense wins championships.
    — phillyroni
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:01 AM, 09/22/2009
    Let's not talk about losing any of those three.
    — wtphillies
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:11 AM, 09/22/2009
    Pedro's "still" neck could be a problem.
    — rewbschaft
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:23 AM, 09/22/2009
    Sorry Guys, this conversation has to include Ruiz, the guy who controls the game effortlessly and gives our pitchers the confidence to throw their nastiest stuff knowing that Carlos will pick it almost every time...
    — wvbillz
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:35 AM, 09/22/2009
    With the magic number at 6. Won't it take a 3 Phillies wins and 3 Marlins losses to knock them out. The same thing with the Braves.
    — roque32
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:37 AM, 09/22/2009
    Souderton: Howard hasn't reached the 140 rbi mark yet buddy, don't count them before they're hatched.......
    — conway86
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:43 AM, 09/22/2009
    David, I agree with you. Rollins defense alone sets him apart from just about any shortstop in baseball and his numbers have become very respectable considering the start he had. They always say the defense up the middle wins games. The Phillies have probably the best in baseball plus you get the bonus of Feliz at 3rd. When the playoffs come, it's about pitching and defense. If the back of the bullpen can get settled, a repeat is definitely not out of the question.
    — Bill S
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:56 AM, 09/22/2009
    I understand what you're saying phillyroni, but I don't think you're right. Look at uzr ratings for this year - Rollins is ninth among shortstops in ultimate zone rating, which measures range and not errors, which is well above average, I can't dent that. Utley, meanwhile, is third among second basemen. Utley is also a better hitter. I would agree that Rollins has been better in regards to errors but relative to others at his position and in terms of runs prevented Utley is a better defender. Check out the fangraphs uzr rankings here http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0 0 is average, positive numbers are above average, and negative numbers are below average. It measures run saved and runs a player cost his team. Utley is the third best defensive second baseman in baseball this year according to these ratings, and last year he was the best in ALL OF BASEBALL, not just second basemen. So yes, I understand the value of great defense. I just know it a little more differently than you. And that's why I'd keep Utley, since he's saves more runs and is a better hitter.
    — spin cycle
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:05 PM, 09/22/2009
    It's Utley and it's not even close. Utley is the best offensive and defensive 2b in baseball. Rollins offense has been abysmal this year. I don't understand how there is even a debate. Chase Utley is the most valuable player on this team by a mile. C'mon.
    — Either/Or
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:06 PM, 09/22/2009
    Spell check doesn't cut it.
    — drbob456
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:10 PM, 09/22/2009
    Oh and also I love how Rollins get value for being the "lead-off" hitter. Really? He's worth more because Charlie bats him 1st? He has the worst OBP on the team! He gets on base less than Pedro Feliz. That is more valuable than Utley?! Or even Howard?! Oof.
    — Either/Or


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About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times. E-mail Dave at dmurphy@phillynews.com.

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