Phillies might have to lower standards in center field to address bullpen...or they might not
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Phillies might have to lower standards in center field to address bullpen...or they might not
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We are here in Nashville, Tenn. at the Opryland Hotel, which is pretty much the epicenter of American excess, a sprawling, ostentacious maze of ballrooms, bars, indoor rivers and Best Buy vending machines where rich people buy iPod nanos like you and I buy bags of Doodle Twists.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, there are no free agent vending machines on the premises, which means they are still at the mercy of a market that is showing the effects of the impending influx of cash that will arrive when baseball's new national television deal goes into effect in 2014. If it feels like I mention that influx of cash in every story that I write, it's probably because I do, because I really do think that it could end up having a drastic impact on teams that already have high payrolls and are determined not to stray too far north of the luxury tax threshold. In that scenario, the new money would provide a small market team an increase in spending power that is far greater than that provided to a team that is already a big spender, because the big spender is already close to that luxury tax ceiling (assuming, of course, that the big spender views the luxury tax as a deterrent). Consider some of the teams that have been the most active in the first month of free agency. The Braves, Blue Jays, Royals, Reds and Mariners each have already doled out more guaranteed money this offseason than they did in the two previous offseasons combined.
Let's take a look at how the market looks with regard to the positions the Phillies will be targeting.
1) Center field
B.J. Upton seems to have been at the top of the Phillies wish list. The Braves ended up signing the talented but underperforming right-handed hitter to a five-year, $75.25 million deal. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported that the Phillies' best offer was for five years and $55 million. Which, in a normal world, would seem to be a pretty fair price for a player with the track record of Upton. But it is hard to judge what is fair this year. Take Angel Pagan, who is another player the Phillies reportedly have had ongoing dialogue with. Pagan would obviously represent a serious upgrade over the center field situation that unfolded in Philadelphia after the trade of Shane Victorino last July. But his numbers really are not a whole lot different from a guy like Coco Crisp, who signed a two-year, $15 million deal with the Athletics last offseason. In the three years leading up to his free agency, Crisp posted a batting line of .262/.326/.396 while averaging 31 steals and 6 home runs per season.
Pagan over the last three years: .281/.334/.415 while averaging 33 steals and 9 home runs. Certainly better than Crisp. But not markedly. He is one year younger than Crisp was when he hit free agency. So what would you say -- at the most, three years, $30 million in last year's market conditions? Maybe that gets it done this year. Who knows. But if Upton ended up landing 40 percent more than the Phillies judged him worthy of, might that end up being true for Pagan? Is Pagan worth three years and $39 million? Four years and $48 million?
2) Bullpen
The pertinent contracts doled out thus far:
Brandon League: 3 years, $22.5 million with the Dodgers.
Jonathan Broxton: 3 years, $21 million with the Reds
Jeremy Affeldt: 3 years, $18 million with the Giants
This is an interesting situation for the Phillies, because a lot of what they decide to do could hinge on their projections for Antonio Bastardo, who was dominant in 2011 but who had a weird year in 2012, being replaced by Chad Qualls as the primary set-up man early as the Phillies at times seemed hesitant to use him. He finished the year with a 4.33 ERA in 65 appearances while averaging a career-high 14.0 strikeouts-per-nine-innings. But he also walked a career high 4.5 batters-per-nine and allowed 1.2 home runs per nine. From June on his ERA was 5.30 and he allowed 12 extra base hits in 165 plate appearances. In 2011 he allowed 13 extra base hits the entire season (225 plate appearances). In 2012, his fastball lacked the explosiveness that once characterized it, and you could never shake the feeling that he was not completely healthy.
Why does Bastardo matter? Because if the Phillies are committed to him, then it probably does not make sense for them to pursue a guy like Burnett, who probably should be valued similarly to Affeldt, who re-signed with the Giants for $6 million per year over three years. With Bastardo, the Phillies do not need another lefty. Jeremy Horst was a pleasant surprise last year and Jake Diekman has the kind of stuff that will earn him plenty of opportunities to succeed or fail. Bastardo, a first time arbitration-eligible, will earn a fraction of what Burnett will be able to command. That being said, Burnett has a longer, more consistent track record, better command, a vastly better groundball rate, and a similar performance against left-handed batters (an OPS under .600 the last two seasons).
Really, though, the Phillies biggest struggles came via their right-handed relievers last season, or at least their right-handed relievers who were not Jonathan Papelbon. The right-handed relievers in front of Papelbon (not including Kyle Kendrick) combined to post a 5.59 ERA, allowing opposing hitters to hit .252/.333/.427. Most telling, they allowed an average of 1.4 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings. That ain't good.
You could make the argument that the Phillies would be better off avoiding a pricey free agent position player and pouring that money into the bullpen instead. For starters, the Phillies showed last year that a team can make do with a substandard lineup, but it absolutely cannot contend without a solid bullpen. And because individuals performances tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year for relievers (perhaps because their inconsistency is what landed them in the bullpen to begin with), and because injuries seem to happen with more frequency in the bullpen (see last year), the best way to ensure a solid bullpen is to invest in a diverse portfolio. Rather than signing one upper-tier set-up man, sign two. Or sign one and then bring in two or three veterans/reclamation projects/etc.
One player who would fit into the upper tier category is Brandon Lyon, who the Phillies had some interest in a few years ago when he ended up signing with the Astros. Pedigree wise, the top set-up man available is probably Mike Adams, and I would not be surprised to see the Phillies pursue him. But he has some workload/injury concerns and is 34 years old. Koji Uehara is a name they have been linked to. But again, he is 38 years old and has some durability concerns.
Some potential reclamation projects: Jose Veras, Mark Lowe, Matt Lindstrom, Peter Moylan, Ramon Ramirez, Joey Devine.
The Phillies do have a lot of young talent that got a lot of experience last year. They also have Mike Stutes coming back from surgery. But they thought they had a lot of young talent last year, and we saw how that worked out.
While relievers like League and Broxton and Affeldt have been rewarded thus far, it still looks like the amount the Phillies will need to overpay relievers pales in comparison to the amount they will need to overpay a slightly-above-league-average hitter like Angel Pagan.
In a perfect world they will fill all of their needs. But as soon as the pricetag of one need starts preventing them from being able to adequately address another need, they might need to make some tough decisions.
Been a fan for 34 years but I swear if I have to look at Angel Pagan in a Phillies uniform its over.— mattt- Bastardo wasn't dominant in 2011. Bastardo completely fell apart at the end of the 2011 season, with an ERA over 11.00 in his last 10 appearances, which is why he and Stutes were question marks for 2012, and why the Phillies acquired Chad Qualls in the off-season, even though Chad Qualls hadn't had an above average season since 2008. Unfortunately, that's the kind of reliever the Phillies like to acquire - somebody who used to be good in 2008.— Gnip Gnop
- The Phillies central problem is they have two good players: Hamels and Ruiz. The rest need to be replaced.— 4thand10
- I'm glad they didn't get Upton. Mike Adams would be a mistake IMO. I'm for most any CF that moves Jimmy out of the leadoff spot.— Only in Philly...
- I'm going to continue my broken record lobby here. Sign Cody Ross to play one of the corner spots. Keep Mayberry in CF and use Ruf/Brown as a platoon. Use $ to shore up bullpen and/or invest in a proven utility player who can play multiple positions. Is Scott Hairston still on the market?— Sam Crow
- In fact, why doesn't Amaro make a play for Marco Scutaro??— Sam Crow
- Aumont and JDeF. are the answer...just let them do it.— Romus
- @Only in Philly: "I'm for most any CF that moves Jimmy out of the leadoff spot."
I guess the two biggest FA candidates are Pagan and Bourne.
Pagan: Pagan walks less than Rollins, strikes out more, swings at the first pitch more, sees fewer pitches, and while he gets on base more, the difference is small.
Bourne: Bourn walks about the same as Rollins, strikes out a lot more, swings at the first pitch more, but sees more pitches and gets on base more.
Bourn would almost definitely lead to Rollins moving down. Pagan is not clearly a better leadoff hitter, so with him it's not as certain.— schmenkman - mattt...really? Pagan would be a decent CF. Wait you want Hamilton right? Pleeeez...Be realistic Matty— phillyceltic
- All I know for sure is that the team, as it's currently constructed, is underwhelming and needs an influx of talent (preferable under 30 y.o.). Last season was BORING and a repeat would be a bitter pill to swallow.— dblankj
- Pagan just re-signed with SF. Now what do you do RAJ? As I've said before the Phils will be left with 2nd rate talent in CF when the 2013 season starts. They're not willing to spend this year (2 affordable contracts with Upton & Pagan) and their farm system is baron.
- 10 million dollar a year for angel pagan to stay in s.f?
i can stand the stars getting the big bucks, but when we have slightly above average players getting to the 8 figure mark and set up guys getting 6 plus million, its just out of control.— jim715 - @tothehouse, I think it's a little early to get nervous.— schmenkman
- @schmenkman--not nervous--just stating facts. The team doesn't want to go over the luxury tax & they have nothing other teams would be looking for in a trade. Talk to me in a couple a months and we'll see then. If RAJ isn't panicking, he should be. The teams around him are getting better and he hasn't done anything yet.
- @tothehouse, I guess I don't feel like the Phillies have missed out on much so far. Upton at 5/75 is a little steep, Span is ok but not great. There are lots of ways to improve the team, and I for one am glad that for a change, Amaro isn't jumping in early and setting the market.— schmenkman
