Live Cheese, Game No. 2: Phillies (1-0) at Pirates (0-1)
We're going to try to kick the in-game commentary up a notch this season, and this will be the blog post where we kick it. Check back throughout the the game for notes, observations and statistics. The newer stuff will be on top. Also, I'll participate in the comments section as often as possible.
Live Cheese, Game No. 2: Phillies (1-0) at Pirates (0-1)
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We're going to try to kick the in-game commentary up a notch this season, and this will be the blog post where we kick it. Check back throughout the the game for notes, observations and statistics. The newer stuff will be on top. Also, I'll participate in the comments section as often as possible.
PIRATES 2, PHILLIES 1 -- FINAL
There are exciting 2-1 losses, and then there is whatever you witnessed tonight at PNC Park. The Phillies have experienced plenty of these over the last year-plus, but this one felt a little different. Maybe it is just because we can't help but project our preconceived notions about this offense onto the action we see on the field. Still, whenever you watched the Phillies in one of these games over the past few seasons, you at least had the potential that a Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Raul Ibanez or Jayson Werth would seize the momentum with one swing of the bat. Tonight? It was just ugly, plain and simple. The manager did not have his finest inning in the eighth, when he first tried to get Laynce Nix to lay down a bunt, then pinch-hit Jim Thome for John Mayberry Jr. At the same time, Manuel knows he is going to have to invent ways to score runs, and he doesn't necessarily have the personnel to do so.
Not a pretty couple of games of hitting for this team. Sure, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins can get hot. Otherwise, you look up and down the line-up and see very little to think that what you have seen will change in the near future.
More to come.
10:00 p.m. - Down on the farm, Domonic Brown's two-run single in the top of the sixth inning lifted the IronPigs to a 3-2 victory in the second game of a doubleheader. Here in the big leagues, it is extra innings. Joe Blanton is warming in the bullpen for multiple-innings duty. Blanton is scheduled to start on Thursday, meaning he can pitch tonight and still get normal rest. The Phillies offense has scored four runs in the last 35 innings of ball dating back to the first inning of Game 4 of the NLDS.
9:36 p.m. - Let the second-guessing begin. An interesting decision to have Laynce Nix attempt to lay down a bunt after Hunter Pence singled to lead off the ninth with the score tied at 1-1. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Nix had not attempted a bunt since 2010, when he was 2-for-2 on SAC bunt attempts as a member of the Reds. For his career, he was 4-for-5 on SAC bunt attempts and 1-for-2 on attempted bunts for hits. Nix popped out. Charlie Manuel then brought in Jim Thome to pinch-hit for John Mayberry Jr., taking his best defensive left fielder out of a tie game. Thome struck out. I'm guessing Thome or Ty Wigginton heads to first base with Laynce Nix heading to the outfield.
9:12 p.m. - Well, we're slowly getting a look at some of the new pieces to the puzzle. Like, for instance, Kyle Kendrick pitching out of the bullpen in the seventh inning of a 1-1 game. Kendrick pitched a 1-2-3 frame, giving up three line drives, including one that Laynce Nix made a nice grab of. This was the eighth time in his career that Kendrick pitched in a tie game or save situation in the seventh inning or later. Half of those were extra innings appearances. We also saw Juan Pierre for the first time as a Phillie, wearing Ben Francisco's old No. 10. Pierre has one of the best strikeout rates in the majors, but he struck out against former IronPig Jason Grilli to lead off the eighth. The other option there was going to Jim Thome and then using a pinch runner if he reached base. Game tied at 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth.
8:49 p.m. - Cliff Lee does not appear to be thrilled with the strike zone tonight, and that's worth pointing out because in the bottom of the sixth inning he issued a one-out walk to Yamaico Navarro that came back to haunt him, as a two-out wild pitch tied the game. Meanwhile, Lee's night appears to be over after one run, two hits and two walks in six innings. Kyle Kendrick is warming in the bullpen to inherit a 1-1 game.
8:03 p.m. - Laynce Nix walked. It's worth mentioning because Laynce Nix only walked 23 times in 351 plate appearances last season. He did, however, draw some walks in spring training. Maybe he has turned over a new leaf. Doubtful that he's gained much foot speed, although it looked like he probably could have scored on a Carlos Ruiz singled through the right side of the infield. Nevertheless, Juan Samuel held him up, and Freddy Galvis flied out with runners on the corners to scuttle the scoring opportunity.
7:35 p.m. - Just posted this to Twitter, but it is interesting enough to post here, especially if this is going to be a boring game. Last year, Cliff Lee's .307 slugging percentage was higher than those posted by Brian Schneider (.256), Michael Martinez (.282) and Pete Orr (.250). It was just four points lower than the slugging percentage that Freddy Galvis posted at Double-A Reading in 2010 (.311). Galvis displayed a much stronger bat last season at Reading and Lehigh Valley, and did so again during spring training. Galvis appears to be a more powerful hitter from the left side of the plate. During his first at-bat he made good contact but flied out at the warning track. 1-0 Phils in the bottom of the second here.
7:20 p.m. - You wanted small ball? You got it. Jimmy Rollins lays down a SAC bunt from the three-hole to move runners to 2nd and 3rd with one out. Not sure how I feel about that one, although it did ensure that one run got home. Then again, only one run got home, putting the Phils up 1-0 on Hunter Pence's infield single.
Last year, Phillies three-hole hitters sacrificed twice: Placido Polanco in the bottom of the 19th of that epic game against Cincinnati, and Chase Utley against Josh Beckett in a late-June game.
PRE-GAME, 6:41 p.m. - Can't be a good feeling to be the Pirates coming off a shutout loss on Opening Day and having to face Cliff Lee in the follow-up. Lee hasn't faced Pittsburgh since 2009, so we're not even going to bother with his history against them.
Couple of random thoughts: Did anybody catch the Nationals' bullpen today? The unit tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing one hit and two walks with seven strikeouts after Gio Gonzalez was knocked out of the game in the fourth inning (3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R/ER, 3 BB, 6 SO). We knew it was going to be a helluva 'pen, and they are off to a good start.
Also, the Braves have now lost seven straight games dating back to last season. They are off to an 0-2 start this year.
Anyway, we'll be underway here from PNC Park in about a half hour. You can find the line-ups in the two previous posts, as well as a breakdown of Jeff Karstens.
National"s Park?????— SMOKEY811- Hey, love the commentary. I'm out of town in an AL area, and this is my life line. Keep it up!— Cheesedog
- Hey all, this is my only link to the Phillies too. Wish more of the comments were about baseball. Still entertaining though.— cupajoe
" An "Empirical Perspective on Defensive Equilibrium" was a great effort Murph.— DUDESKINS- No small ball with Nix and Thome up there. Same old lame offense. Does Juan Samuel not understand that runs, and chances to get runs, are limited? Don't hold people at third with two outs. Getting to third for this team is as rare as it was for me in high school.— burholme
- First two games: Worst offense we've seen from the Phillies in over a decade.
They're struggling against the *pirates*.
I think the Nats will be beating this team 9-0. The Mets may be laughing at them by the time June rolls around.— fmMD - I see the solution to the Phils' luxury tax concerns for 2013 and beyond. Sign Hamels and let the bats go. There just are no hitters who are earning their salaries and if someone wants to pay Victorino $10 M for what's he's producing, then problem solved -- he's gone. Polanco is making it easy to resolve his situation after this year. Who will gave Pence a raise? We've been troubled over how the team will do by losing its lineup but this lineup is well worth losing, not worth watching. Pull a Flyers' style makeover on this lineup.— Claudio Vernight
- great game... not— Sam Crow
- Yeah, the team needs to manufacture runs. But no way JRoll needed to bunt in the first inning. He owned the pitcher and is the first inning for crying out loud. And why bunt Nix in the 9th. They guys hasn't bunted since 2010 and he showed why.— EL Zorro
- Bad coaching all around. I was afraid of that with Howard and Utley out.— EL Zorro
- Proposal for commenters in 2012: If you wish to trash a managerial move, please offer the alternative move(s) and why the (statistical) likelihood of success would have been so much greater. To take only the Nix bunt attempt, the guy had a horrendous spring and was hitless tonight. You have the lead-off runner on 1st in a 1-1 game in the 9th; getting him into scoring position is paramount! Yes, Nix hadn't bunted since 2010, but almost everybody else hasn't bunted for 6 months either. (I'd posit that all players get their most sustained bunting practice during spring training, so Nix has probably practiced bunting more in recent weeks than at most junctures of the season.) And he WAS 4-for-5 lifetime in SAC bunt attempts. Thus, an 80% chance of advancing Pence, arguably lower because Nix is out of practice. But what are the chances Nix gets a hit or a walk there? Recently, those numbers have been at 20-25%. Further, the better bunter, Juan Pierre, had been used -- appropriately -- to try to kick-start the 8th inning. You could pinch-hit Pete Orr to bunt, but is he really a better bunter? I don't know. I think, strictly speaking about this one move, the numbers were strongly in favor of having Nix bunt. Sometimes -- I know this is difficult for some to accept -- but sometimes it's just the player's fault.— PhilaLogic
- So maybe he shouldn't be playing if he had an horrendous spring. BTW, I thought Spring numbers don't mean anything. He hit 16 HR last year with not bunt attempts, genius. Of his 81 hits last year, 32 were xbase hits. He also is a LH pull hitter, which increases the chances of advancing the runner with a groundball to the right side. Another alternative would have been for Pence to try to steal a base, which he did shortly after. He's been in the league 11 years and has 5 bunt attempts. Maybe he was lucky with his success, but the reason he only has that low number is because he's not a bunter, period.— EL Zorro
- 1) I never said anywhere that spring numbers are meaningless. I happen to think they are, in general. But if a guy struggled all spring and doesn't look great in his first game out, it weighs negatively to some degree. 2) Calling names sarcastically doesn't advance your argument, but does reveal something about you. 3) Check Murphy's blog post about Manuel's post-game comments for my more thorough analysis of why Nix should have bunted. The numbers are not remotely close, and would hardly be bridged by the chances of a groundout in the hole between first and second. 4) It's silly to cite luck. Nix's bunting success rate is right around the average for all major leaguers. It's what's to be expected. So weigh that versus other likelihoods, which I did. 5) Pence stealing would have been another choice. But if a so-so base stealer (62% success in 99 tries) is thrown out after getting on 1st to lead off the 9th in a 1-1 game, can you HONESTLY say you wouldn't have reamed Manuel for that choice? It's a fair debate, though. It would have taken nerve, with nobody out. — PhilaLogic
- I meant advancing the runner first to third.— EL Zorro
- No, I wouldn't criticize Charlie if Pence was caught stealing. For once, I think the Phillie don't run enough for a team that has the best stealing % for the last few years. That's a huge part of the game that's been lost. You need to put the pressure on the opposing team and the Phillies have the players to do it. They just don't do it enough. And btw, you don't bunt a LH hitting fastball hitter against a RH power pitcher. You just don't.— EL Zorro
- No, I wouldn't criticize Charlie if Pence was caught stealing. For once, I think the Phillie don't run enough for a team that has the best stealing % for the last few years. That's a huge part of the game that's been lost. You need to put the pressure on the opposing team and the Phillies have the players to do it. They just don't do it enough. And btw, you don't bunt a LH hitting fastball hitter against a RH power pitcher. You just don't.— EL Zorro
- Well, I surely would have been upset if Pence had been caught stealing with nobody out! Too many other options at that point for a moderately good base stealer to run. I think that's a bad move, statistically. Which is my point in all of these posts -- including the one on the other blog entry where I blast Manuel's bringing in Blanton... I agree about stealing more, putting more pressure on the opposition. But that 9th inning runner is more precious, and the opponent is usually more attuned to the importance of preventing a steal (unless it's Lidge. if that guy holds on Phillies' runners this year, I will be pissed!). Though they did forget about Pence after there was one out. Smart move by the Phils there.
The idea that you "just don't" a LH fastball hitter against a RH power pitcher might have some validity, but is more feeling than fact. I offered the facts on the other blog entry. Nix, I figured later, would have to be a 35% sac bunter -- less than half of league average -- to make the moves have an equal chance of resulting in a run. You also might figure that against an All-Star like Hanrahan, any player, and Nix in particular, is going to have less success as a batter.— PhilaLogic - Pence's stolen base % last year was 80. So I wouldn't call that moderate. Although he was never a great base stealer, but neither was Vic until he learned under Davey Lopes. Maybe Pence is getting better with experience.— EL Zorro
- Come on, be more sincere. That's in just 10 tries. I didn't cite his 50% success rate with the Phillies because that's deceptive; it's only 2 attempts. There is a blip, no trend. His lifetime numbers are moderate... And you know very well, a guy can swipe a few bases in situations where he's not getting much attention. Heck, Ryan Howard's done it a few times. But it's harder in a tie game in the 9th, at least if the opponent has a clue... Here's a bedtime thought to make you happy: I would trade Charlie Manuel for Mike Scioscia in a second. — PhilaLogic
- I settle for Ron Gardenhire.— EL Zorro
