Lidge's fastball versus Lidge's slider
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Lidge's fastball versus Lidge's slider
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I was running on the treadmill yesterday when I felt something in my left shoe rubbing against my small left toe. It felt like a small pebble might have been stuck in there. Turns out, it was just an awkward positioning of my sock. It was more annoying than painful, and once I stop running I tend to have a hard time starting back up again -- it's like a Band-Aid, get it out of the way as fast as possible and it is less painful -- so I ignored the pebble-type sensation and continued to run. But when I stopped running 18 miles later -- OK, so it wasn't 18 -- the top right side of my left ankle hurt.
Now, you may be asking yourself one of two things:
1) Is this a subtle plea for prescription pain meds?
2) What in the name of Sancho Panza's donkey does this have to do with Brad Lidge?
To any Federal Agents who happen to be reading this blog, the answer to the first question is: Um, no. I tell this little anecdote because it is the first thing I thought of when I listened to Lidge talk about his knee and elbow problems at a press conference yesterday. The human body is an intricate machine, one that has a remarkable ability to compensate for shortcomings in one area by instinctively transfering energy to another area; or, as Subaru would say, from the wheels that slip to the wheels that grip. When I was running on the treadmill, I was subtly changing my stride to alleviate pressure on my left toe, which required transfering more pressure to the right side of the foot, which led to the second bout of soreness I felt.
I draw two parallels to Lidge's situation last season -- one literal, and one figurative. The literal: the fact that Lidge's elbow required surgery after the season makes perfect sense, given the fact that he says he was favoring his knee and changing his mechanics all season. The figurative: Lidge's fastball was most affected by the knee injury, which made his slider seem more ineffective than it really was.
The second scenario is what really intrigues me, because Lidge's slider was the pitch that was the subject of so much speculation last season. Had he lost confidence in it? Had he lost a feel for it? Were hitters laying off it at a far greater rate than in previous years? Was his lights-out 2008 season mostly the result of hitters consistently fishing for sliders out of the zone?
While there was good reason to ask any one of the aforementioned questions, I don't think they hold the key.
I haven't done enough research to say anything concrete, but I have done enough to say this: I strongly believe that the overwhelming difference between Lidge in 2009 and Lidge in 2008 was more a result of an inability to control his fastball location inside the strike zone, and less a result of hitters waiting out sliders (perhaps suggesting tipping, or lack of command) or crushing bad ones.
I. The Slider
Let's look at the 44 sliders Lidge through in the 2009 playoffs
- Strikes: 30
- Called strikes: 7
- Swings/Misses (including fouls): 12
- Hits: 1
- In-play Outs: 3
- Strikeouts Swinging: 3
- Strikeouts Looking: 1
Now let's look at the 109 sliders he threw in the 2008 playoffs:
- Strikes: 70
- Called strikes: 20
- Swings/Misses: 32
- Hits: 2
- In-play Outs: 7
- Strikeouts swinging: 8
- Strikeouts looking: 1
The one glaring difference is the number of sliders he threw. In 2008, 63 percent of his total pitches were sliders. In 2009, 42.7 percent of his total pitches were sliders. This jibes with his percentages during the respective regular seasons, when he threw 49.3 percent sliders in 2009 and 56.2 percent in 2008. Why the disparity? Who knows. Maybe he wasn't as confident in the pitch, maybe he was trying repeatedly to establish his fastball, maybe he didn't feel it was effective. All of those are legit questions. But that's a different topic of conversation. My search here was to find him he was throwing the slider as effectively, and the numbers suggest that -- at least during the playoffs, he was:
- Hitters actually swung at the slider more in the 2009 postseason (50 percent of the time), than they did in the 2008 postseason (45.0 percent of the time).
- He threw his slider for more strikes in 2009 than in 2008
- Hitters put sliders into play at a similar rate in 2009 (9.1 percent) as they did in 2008 (8.3 percent)
- Lidge threw his slider for more called strikes in 2008 (18.3 percent to 15.9 percent), but hitters swung and missed or swung and fouled off more sliders in 2009 (34.1 percent) than they did in 2008 (29.4 percent).
- All other categories were comparable.
Of course, this was the playoffs, when Lidge's results were as good as they'd been all season. So I also looked at two separate five game stretches in May, the first from May 8-15, the second from May 26 to June 1. I tried to pick one of his worst stretches of the year, and one of his best. I don't expect them to prove anything, since they are arbitrary dates and - along with the playoffs -- represent roughly 15 percent of his appearances during the year.
Here is his breakdown from early May (5.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 24 AB, 4 SO, 3 BB, 6 XBH), when he threw 106 total pitches:
- Sliders: 60
- Strikes: 35
- Called Strikes 7
- Swings/misses: 18
- In-play Outs: 5
- Hits: 3
- Strikeouts swinging: 2
- Strikeouts looking: 0
Now here is his breakdown from late May (4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 13 AB, 5 SO, 1 BB, 0 XBH), when he threw 64 pitches:
- Sliders: 28
- Strikes: 20
- Called Strikes: 5
- Swings/misses: 7
- In-play Outs: 2
- Hits: 2
- Strikeouts swinging: 3
- Strikeouts looking:1
So during his rough five-game stretch, Lidge threw more sliders (56.67 percent to 43.8 percent), and threw fewer of them for strikes (58.3 percent to 71.4 percent). But. . .
- Hitters swung at his slider at a similar rate (46.7 percent during his rough stretch and 50.0 percent during his good stretch, the equivalent of about one more swing during the good stretch and two more during the rough stretch).
- Hittters "missed" when swinging at the slider -- in other words, did not put a ball into play -- at the exact same rate in both stretches (71.4 percent)
- Hitters put the slider into play at a similar rate during both stretches (13.3 percent of all sliders during the rough stretch, 11.1 during the good stretch).
What does all of this mean? Nothing conclusively. But at the very least, it doesn't appear as if there is a huge disparity in the frequency with which hitters elected to swing at Lidge's slider during any of thestretches. And the similar in-play rates would seem to indicate the hitters were having only slightly more success against the slider during the bad stretch than during the good stretch.
II. The Fastball
Conversely, the difference between Lidge's fastball was vastly different between the two May '09 data sets.
- During the good stretch, 0-for-12 against his fastball. During the bad stretch, they went 8-for-19, meaning 42.1 percent of the time a batter swung against a fastball, it resulted in a hit (and six of those hits were for extra bases).
- During the bad stretch, 13 of the 46 fastballs Lidge threw (and 13-of-19 swings) resulted in a Ball In Play. During the good stretch, 4 of the 36 fastballs he threw (and 4-of-12 swings) resulted in a Ball In Play.
- Hitters swung more at his fastball during the bad stretch (41.3 percent) than the good stretch (33.3 percent), but no more than they swung at his fastball during the playoffs in 2008 (42.2 percent), when they put just 13 of 64 fastballs and 13-of-27 fastball swings, into play.
III. Conclusion
As I said earlier, these are really small sample sizes, so nothing about this is scientific. But I think some of the examples illustrate were the bulk of Lidge's problems lay last year. He still had his slider, even if it was slightly less effective. But hitters killed his fastball at a ridiculous rate, thanks to his difficulty in putting the ball where he wanted it.
What does all of this have to do with Lidge's knee? Maybe nothing. Maybe he just flat-out lost his command. But the knee makes sense in a lot of ways. It explains the location issues. It explains the inconsistent velocity he displayed throughout the season (While his fastball averaged just 0.7 MPH less than in 2008, there seemed to be days where he wasn't throwing as hard. For example, during the 2008 postseason, he threw just one fastball out of 61 total that was clocked below 93 MPH, according to PitchFX. During the 2009 postseason, he threw 12 such pitches out of 51 total fastballs.
Take Game 4 of the World Series, for example, when Lidge allowed three runs in the top of the ninth to blow a tie game. Seven of his first 10 fastballs clocked in at 94 MPH (the other three at 93). Of the final seven that he threw, six clocked in at 92 (including a Mark Teixeira HBP, Alex Rodriguez's RBI Double, and Jorge Posada's two-run single).
Again, anecdotal evidence doesn't prove anything. And it certainly doesn't prove that all will be well with Lidge now that his knee (and, consequently, elbow) are surgically-repaired. Maybe the drop in velocity came from poor mechanics, or the fact that he was pitching from the stretch.
But if the knee was the problem, and if it remains trouble-free this season, all the offseason worry about the bullpen could prove to be unfounded.
murph they need to fire everyone else on the staff and put you in charge of every sport— bitlrc- That's one sick blog. Nicely done.— Drummerboy79
- we talk about Hamels developing a third pitch, how about Lidge developing a third pitch.— eagles84
- "My knee feels great"... forced to shutdown in midseason. "My elbow feels fine".... offseason surgery. Frankly I could care less about what he tells reporters at Spring Training how he feels. Whether he pitched the whole year through injury, or just stunk that bad, the back end of the bullpen is a gargantuan question mark until/unless he goes out and PROVES otherwise ON A CONSISTENT BASIS. Few things were as annoying last year as when he'd save 2 or 3 games in a row and everybody would jump in line to say "He's back!!!" then he inevitably gets rocked his next few times out. So tiresome, as were his constant proclamations that he feels great or he feels confident. I don't get all warm and fuzzy hearing about it. Just go out and Do It!
- @stikolaboloni: and then what? what if he has a monster season in 2010, are you going to start posting about how you are waiting for him to messup again?— roque32
- Murph, nicely done. It's obvious you put a lot of time and thought into this. But I can tell you as a guy who pitched baseballs for 25 years, it was most likely his elbow that caused his control issues and not his knee. As a sport therapist I can tell you with pretty good accuracy which pitchers are on the cusp of blowing out their elbows or hiding elbow problems, just by watching them pitch and seeing the results without ever actually examining their arm. Of course, I do back up my theories with an actual exam and 99% of the time I am correct. Anyone who watched Lidge last year and Tom Gordon struggle with control for 2 years, knew they had an elbow issue and it wasn't going to get any better with rest. I still believe Hamels had a signnificant elbow issue last year in spring training, that it affected how he started the year with locating his fastball and that it will affect him again. That's one thing to factor in if you're the Phils brass and he's looking for a 6 year extension. Elbow problems do not go away. They only progress and get worse over time. Hamels will have surgery at some point, could be this year, could be 3 years away, but it will happen. If he struggles again this year to locate his fastball, we will rue the day we traded Lee for sure.— Mark1npt
- As far as your statistical analysis goes, the critical thing to look at is not whether the pitch was a fastball or slider, but what the count was on the hitter. A fastball throw 3-1 will get pounded a lot further than a slider thrown on a 1-2 count. I can get you actual data if you like on the differences in a hitter's batting average based on what the count is. Hitters wait for certain pitches in certain counts and pitchers try their darndest not to throw those pitches in those counts. Unfortunately for Lidge, last year he HAD to throw certain pitches in certain counts and he got hammered. That's what needs to change results this year more than anything. His ability to locate any pitch at any point in the count he wants to. Hitters can't tee off then, unless they just happen to guess right. Ala, Jason Werth, who spins around twice in the batters box by guessing wrong, then crushes one 20 rows deep 2 pitches later when he guesses right. And I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!— Mark1npt
- Wasn't it game 4 of the world series when Damon stole two bases off him and he game up 3 runs in the 9th.. would have been nice to win that one.— sunking11
- Murph, time to go with the decaf— mick314
- From my view the difference was his inability to get ahead in the count and that meant he couldn't throw the slider. There were many differences between 2008 and 09 not the least of which was the fact that he had all the luck in the world in 08 and very little of it in 09. Just think about the clinching line drive double play in 08 versus 09. If it was 09 that was a hit and a blown save. Command is huge and he had less of it in 09, no doubt. And while we're talking about Lidge, can someone teach him how to hold a runner on. Every walk is a double and that it is a killer.— corkyb
- I am tired of athletes blaming injuries after they fail and then proclaiming they won't take themselves out of games because of their injury. Who are they helping by doing that? And you're either a big man about it and take responsibility for your failure and keep quiet even after the season's over or you put yourself on the shelf because of your injury. Lidge wanted it both ways. To be the strong silent hero type during the season and to explain away his failures in the off season.— Mills
- Lidge's problem might be just as simple that his body is done. It's just worn out. No amount of surgeries or better pitch location can reverse the aging process. The mistake Ruben has been making is giving multi year contracts to aging players like Lidge, Ibanez and Moyer and not gradually working into the lineup 20's something year old players like a Micheal Taylor or a Kyle Drabek. All the starting position players were born in 1980 or before. The pitching staff will have only Hamels, Happ, Kendrick and maybe Bastardo if he makes the team under 30. This team may have peaked and is just getting old fast!— Dull
- CorkyB - Lidge actually threw a higher percentage of first-pitch strikes this year than he did last year. And his 2-0 and 3-1 counts were similar to last year's totals. Then again, he gave up 25 hits on the first or second pitch of the at-bat in 2009, compared with 18 in 2008.
Comment removed.- Okay, don't get me wrong. I am a fan of Murph's columns. But why is it that you guys go from one extreme to another? You basically suck Murph off with your comments but rip every other columnist a new arse. Murph's good, but come on.— joeygrl2010
