Lee vs. Halladay; postseason roster
A hodge-podge of stuff today:
Lee vs. Halladay; postseason roster
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
A hodge-podge of stuff today:
1) Emailer Estep Nagy checked in late last night wondering how Cliff Lee's performance has stacked up against that of Roy Halladay since the trade. Coincidentally, both men were in action last night, with Halladay allowing two runs on 11 hits in six innings of a 10-4 win over the Yankees and Lee pitching a complete game shut-out in a 5-0 win over the Nationals.
Before we look at the breakdown, a quick High Cheese Trivia Question, to be answered at the end of the post -- What is Roy Halladay's given name?
Lee since July 30: 9 GS, 7-2, 2.67 ERA, 64.0 IP .246 BAA, .272 OBP, 4 HR, 60 SO, 9 BB, 59 H, 3 CG
Halladay since July 30: 9 GS, 4-5, 3.82 ERA, 66 IP, .285 BAA, .310 OBP, 10 HR, 60 SO, 10 BB, 3 CG
But keep in mind that seven of Halladay's nine starts have come against three of the four top-scoring teams in baseball (Yankees three times, Red Sox twice, Rays twice). And eight of his 10 home runs have been allowed against those three teams, all of whom are in the top five in baseball in that department.
Lee, meanwhile, has shut down the Rockies (6th in RS), but also has pitched against the Giants (26th in RS), Nationals twice (21st in RS), Astros (25th), Braves (19th), Mets (23rd), Diamondbacks (20th) and Cubs (22nd).
2) Another e-mailer, George Devenny, asked for an early prediction of the postseason roster. Until now, I've resisted the urge to broach the subject. There are simply too many unknowns at this point in time, particularly concerning the statuses of lefty relievers Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero.
But since I was asked:
Definite Position (13): 2B Chase Utley, SS Jimmy Rollins, CF Shane Victorino, LF Raul Ibanez, RF Jayson Werth, C Carlos Ruiz, 1B Ryan Howard, 3B Pedro Feliz, OF Matt Stairs, C Paul Bako, OF Ben Francisco, 3B Greg Dobbs, INF Eric Bruntlett
Definite Pitchers (8): LHP Cole Hamels, LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Joe Blanton, RHP Pedro Martinez, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Ryan Madson, RHP Brett Myers, RHP Chan Ho Park
That's 21 players who, according to my count, are stone-cold locks for the postseason roster. Although Eric Bruntlett hasn't had a plate appearance since Aug. 25 in Pittsburgh, he has five hits in his last 10 at-bats and proved his importance last season as a base-runner. He just hasn't had much of a chance to pinch-hit thanks to the success of the Phillies' starters down the stretch and the presence of Ben Francisco.
That leaves four open roster spots for the following pool of players:
RHP Brad Lidge, RHP Tyler Walker, LHP Scott Eyre, LHP J.C. Romero, RHP Clay Condrey, RHP Chad Durbin, LHP Jack Taschner, LHP Jamie Moyer
As you can see, the Phillies will be faced with some tough decisions. At least two pitchers who were on last season's postseason roster will not be there - at least to start - this time around. If the postseason started tomorrow, I expect the Phillies would keep Lidge, Walker, Durbin and Condrey. Moyer would be headed to Clearwater to stay sharp in case he is needed to fill in as a starter. J.A. Happ would slide into Moyer's role as a long man, plus would provide the team's only left-handed option in the bullpen. Would the Phillies really head into the playoffs without an experienced lefty reliever? At this point, they would probably have to. But again, there is a lot of baseball left to play. If Walker continues to pitch like he has -- 14 consecutive scoreless innings and counting -- I see no way the Phillies could keep him off the roster. That would likely be bad news for Durbin and Condrey, seeing as though Chan Ho Park and J.A. Happ can pitch multiple innings, and Park and two of Lidge, Myers, Walker and Madson can be your righthander in the seventh and eighth, depending on who is closing.
A lot could depend on who the Phillies face. For example, Clay Condrey has allowed five hits in 33 at-bats against the Rockies current roster. Todd Helton is 1-for-7 lifetime against him while Brad Hawpe, Yorvit Torrealba, Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki are a combined 0-for-14. But the Dodgers' current roster has hit a robust .429 off of Condrey in his career including Matt Kemp's 7-for-8, Rafael Furcal's 3-for-5, Andre Ethier's 3-for-8 and Juan Pierre's 4-for-8.
Walker, meanwhile, has a .275 BAA against the Dodgers (0-for-12 against Juan Pierre, Russell Martin, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier and Casey Blake, but 8-for-14 against Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson) and .196 against the Rockies (4-for-26 against Brad Hawpe, Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Spillborghs, 3-for-9 with a HR against Todd Helton). Looking forward, Walker is 2-for-12 against the Cardinals Matt Holliday.
Long story short, it's way too early to make any projections.
Even if the Phillies clinch early, the battle in the bullpen will provide a certain level of intrigue through the close of the regular season. If one, or both, of Romero or Eyre is healthy, it will make things really interesting. The Phillies really need one of those two, or else they will be forced to either use Happ as their lone lefty out of the 'Pen, or add Taschner - who isn't a true situational lefty - or rookie Sergio Escalona. The Phillies could still call up LHP Antonio Bastardo.
3) The Phillies' magic number is 12. They are a game behind the Cardinals for second place in the National League. They are seven games ahead of the Marlins, 7.5 ahead of the Braves.
4) High Cheese Trivia Answer: Roy Hallday was born Harry Leroy Halladay.
Once the Phils clinch, start Stairs in center field to work on his speed and have Bruntlett catch.— Delaware Jim- why do we need 12 pitchers? wouldn't 14 position players be better?— CyHamels
- If it's too early to make such projections, why write the article?— The Truth Hurts
- What's the big idear putting well-reported and reasoned, cogent analysis in a blog posting?— andrewfrombrooklyn
- We were incredibly fortunate to have Rube get us The General. That is no excusefor folks to start downplaying what Halladay has been doing!. I would LOVE to add him to our staff over the off-season if possible......wouldn't you?— TBear
- if your going to compare lee and halladay, you have to look at the price it would have cost to get Halladay vs Lee. At worst you can say their performances are equal, and phils hardly gave up anything to get him. Not to mention got Francisco. Plus report on ESPN is that Knapp needs surgery. Phillies robbed Cleveland.— phillysmith
- Lidge should not be anywhere near a playoff roster spot. There's a big difference between blowing a save in September with a 7 game lead in the division then blowing one in a playoff series. If Manuel goes with Lidge in any playoff game this season and he blows the game and costs us the series, I personally think Manuel should be fired. Right now is the time that Manuel should grooming Myers as the sole closer. Not Lidge and not Madson.— power808
Comment removed.- [Posted by ashemnat99 02:45 PM, 09/16/2009 James, who's Buntlett?? Well, he's the twin brother of our dashing bench player supreme Eric bruntlett. You know, the guy who Charlie uses as a pinch hitter because he hit that one ball hard that one time? ] Wasn't that hit off Cincinnati's UTILITY INFIELDER who mopped the 9th inning of the Phillies 26-1 blowout?— jman
- I would not expect to receive any contribution from Romero at this point, and Eyre is gutsy for trying to pitch with this loose chip in his arm. One way or another they’re going to have to make some interesting playoff roster decisions. 8 Regulars: Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ruiz, Ibanez, Werth, Victorino. Bench Bako Francisco Stairs Dobbs Mayberry (I’d put him on here for RH Pop off bench) Bruntlett SP Hamels Lee Pedro Blanton BP Madson Myers Park Lidge (they’ll put him on there for loyalty reasons) Moyer (loyalty/long man) Happ (lefty) Eyre?? (if healthy) Out Durbin Romero Condrey If Eyre can’t go, then I’d go Condrey over Durbin if Romero is still hurt. Also, if Happ has a set back, Eyre/Romero can’t go, do not be surprised when I tell you their only other option is Taschner, who changed his delivery up in triple A, and looks much better. Gotta give him some props for wanting to stay with the organization in triple A and working on it down there.— PhillyPhan35
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- No doubt, here's how the wheels in Cholly's head will turn (regarding the post-season pitchers): 1) Take all "my guys' from last year's post-season; 2) add in the "big names" acquired this year (Park, Martinez, Lee); 3) sort them by a mix of performance, tenure, current injury status, and contribution to last year's post-season; 4) Keep the top 12 on the list. If Eyre and Romero are still injured/ineffective, this will make Cholly's decision an easy, painless no-brainer. Otherwise, Durbin and Condrey figure to be the odd men out. (Kendrick and Walker have no shot in either scenario.) ... THERE'S NO WAY LIDGE AND MOYER ARE LEFT OFF THE POST_SEASON ROSTER. The organ-I-zation has too much respect for their past contributions. (This was not the case in 2008 for Eaton & Kendrick.) This short-changes Condrey and Durbin, but they missed large stretches of 2009, and aren't that spectacular anyway.— jman
- Who's Buntlett?— James TL
- [Posted by KGKoons 12:43 PM, 09/16/2009 If Dobbs cannot come back, who then ? And what happens in the next few weeks if Stairs, Brun. get hurt? Cairo? ] If Stairs or Buntlette get hurt, that's probably a GOOD thing.— jman
- [Posted by EL Zorro 11:01 AM, 09/16/2009 Cairo can play shorstop and has tons of playoff experience. Don't count him out yet.] If Cairo is so useful, why was he in AAA for most of the year, while Buntlette was here batting .125? ... Surely by now, everyone must know that Cholly will go with "the guys who got him here". Cairo is not one of those (nor is Walker).— jman
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- Glad we got Lee. I am impressed with his piching and he also could hit. I like it as Lee, Hamels, Blanton,and Pedro. What more could we ask for. GO PHILLIES GO!!!!!!!!— mick
- Halladay would have better #'s with the phils, but guess what? news flash, hes not !— Will.i.Am
One other thing I'd add to the Halladay/Lee comparison is that Halladay was terible in his first 3/4 starts after the trade deadline. All that talk about getting traded to a contender then ultimately staying put had to be deflating to him.- and you know cholly loves those historical stats. be crazy to see happ off the postseason roster given the year he had. tough decisions upon us indeed. either way, we're about to rePeat! Fightin Phils!— drumminge6
- Don't put too much stock in that Lee/Halliday comparison. One pitcher was traded from a moribund team to the defending champs, and his performance reflects his elation at his opportunity. The other, who anticipated coming to the Phillies, had his hopes dashed and relaized that he will never get to pitch for a contending team in 09, and his performance reflects his disappointment. Despite the millions they make, ball players are all too very human, like the rest of us— stop2think
- phillysmith got the rotation for the palyoffs right - that's it. Only issue is Moyer: if you noticed, it takes him awhile to settle down when he starts, so I'm not confident in having him come out of the pen as relief, because that would mean he'd give up some hits or runs at a moment that could be critical in the game.— phillies_eagles
- The grammar police are on the loose-- There is no such word as statuses- it's status, whether you are speaking of one person's status or more than one.— pajamas
- Would you be so kind as to pass a request on to Phillies management to please FIRE CHRIS WHEELER after the season?— Lpaul
- It would be very nice if people would stop recomending we put injured pitchers who can't throw on the post season roster. Romero, Eyre, etc...Before we worry about who is better, let's worry about who is healthy— fan_in_jerusalem
- leave lidge OFF the roster and keep romero and moyer maybe walker.— only 9
- So you want a stiff who can't hit to play every day to get his "stroke" back, and take away at bats from the regulars, who then won't stay sharp from less at-bats (let alone lose the chance to pad their annual stats against mediocre pitching). Good strategy. Should really help the team peak before the playoffs.— Bob1
- fan: Eyre is hurting. Not sure how he'llpitch from day to day with foreign body floating in his elbow— fan_in_jerusalem
- How is Dobbs a definite? He's hurt right now, and even before the injury he saw very limited playing time and struggled mightily at the plate. Bruntlett can play 3rd so Dobbs is not necessary. They've got to have Eyre on the postseason roster as well.— phillyfan412
- If Dobbs can't play, figure on Andy Tracey as the Lefty off the bench. A power hitting 1B he is a career minor leaguer but a very good one.— fan_in_jerusalem
- If Dobbs cannot come back, who then ? And what happens in the next few weeks if Stairs, Brun. get hurt? Cairo? We probably won't see JC and that could hurt. Hey, I don't care if the Sisters of Mary play as long as the Phils make the PO's and do well.— KGKoons
- Dick Allen: Tyler has been lights out lately. Eyre is hurting. With a floating body in his elbow no one knows how he'll pitch from day to day. It all depends on where the body is at any given time.Moyer doesn't need t be on the roster as he only has pitched out of the bullpen after rain delays--better he should be ready in case someone goes down. You are right, however, about Brunlett, DObbs (if healthy) and the other bench players. The more ABs they get before the post season the better we'll be. The question is, do we trade possible first or second seed in NL, and home field, for more ABs for our bench— fan_in_jerusalem
- Moyer will definitely not be on the roster.— benjyedwards
- Richie Allen --- great point about Bruntlett. As he works his way around the positions he could be the guy who gives everyone their breather and get his rust off at the same time.— RichieAllen64
- Halladay has 12 years in the big leagues. Cliff Lee has eight. What exactly do we learn about them from looking at their stats from the past six weeks? Halladay was absolutely put through the wringer in July, and when the process was over, he was stuck on the same sub-.500 team he was on when it began. Don't you think that could have knocked him off his game for three or four starts? Over the course of their careers, Halladay has proven himself to be a slightly better pitcher than Lee. That's not a knock on Lee. Lee has been very, very good, but Halladay has been better. (Lower career ERA, better career winning percentage ...) That said, the Phils are way better off with Lee because the price for Halladay would have been so much higher.— GoPhilsGo
- As a strict amateur, I would say Romero will not have enough time to show anything definitie. Taschner has the ability to give up huge chunks of runs. I think you have to have Lidge and Moyer - Moyer for no other reason than team stability. Scott Eyre is a must. I don't think you should leave Chad Durbin off. Condrey simply hasn't been healthy enough. Walker is too scary for me.— RichieAllen64
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Once we clinch, Bruntlett should start every game to get his stroke back. He is NOT as bad as he's looked this year at the plate, just rusty from inactivity. Same for Greg Dobbs. The bench better be ready for the playoffs or the season is over. And Jamie Moyer is a spectator- Eyre won't be on roster due to his arm--he's playing hurt, but hurt in playoffs isn't good. I figure the pitchers are: Lee, Hammels, Blanton and Pedro as starters and Lidge, Madson, Happ, Myers, Park, Walker, Condrey and Durbin. Moyer has only pitched out of the Pen as a starter (coming in after rain delays). Romero and Eyre are hurt, and Tascher hasn't proven he's any better then he was when he was sent down (though he's gotten great reports from AAA). Cairo has as much chance of making the post season roster as Eaton does--abso-F*ing-lutely none!!— fan_in_jerusalem
- NO way Lidge should be on the roster. Lee, Hamels, Pedro, Blanton in that order. In the pen Madson, Park, Myers, Happ, Walker, Durbin, Condrey, Moyer, and Eyre or Romero (who ever is healthier). Madson closes, myers setup, Happ fills Lefty role.— phillysmith
- "Long story short, it's way too early to make any projections." - - You could have started with that and saved everyone a lot of time. Unless you get paid by the word...then I get it.— Bazalite
- 11 pitchers works given off days and length of the first series. Also, unclear why Condrey and Durbin would fit, and Walker/Moyer or Eyre would not, given perfromance and appearance factors of past month. However, I agree that next couple of weeks will show us the best route to go. In my mind, C & D would have to pitch lights out to make it. Too many arms is a nice problem to have, unless one of them is named Lidge.— mick314
- Cairo can play shorstop and has tons of playoff experience. Don't count him out yet.— EL Zorro
- Mike Zagurski - 3.57 ERA in 53 innings at Reading - 63 Ks, 27 BBs, 7 HRs allowed, 1.30 WHIP. Not bad, but not exactly lighting it up, though he pitched 11.2 scoreless innings to close out the year. Can't imagine they'd give up on him yet, esp. when they haven't given up on Mathieson who's had two TJ surgeries to Fat Mike's one. Also, his photo on MILB.com is hilarious.— B in DC
- I know you are trying to pla to the fan base here, but we all know that Brad Lidge will be on the post-season roster. Without a doubt he will be there.— MFPhils
- Is there any reason these blogs are being updated so infrequently? Busier schedule?— MFPhils
- Murph... I saw Dobbs playing for the Lakewood Blueclaws last night when I went to game 2 of their championship. Played 5 innings at 3rd base. Is he in rehab?— BudSelig_isthenext_MrBurns
- MH225 - I doubt it, although they did last year with Stairs, Jenkins, Coste, Bruntlett, Taguchi and Dobbs. I don't see who the sixth bench guy would be this year. Last year, their bullpen was healthy and set up and they could afford go light. This year, I think they need all the options they can get.
- Good stuff, Murph. While Bruntlett has been weak at the plate, he is the only infielder that can back up Jimmy and Chase, so the flamers need to take that into account. But I would keep Eyre on the roster as opposed to Durbin and unless Codrey (and Romero) gets some innings in soon, they are just names, not solutions.— jimmymack
- Is there any chance that they go with 14 position players and 11 pitchers (since they will only need 4 starters)?— Mh225
- What's the deal with Mike Zagurski? Have they given up on this lefty?— brinkmang
