J.A. Happ and the trade deadline, The Sequel
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J.A. Happ and the trade deadline, The Sequel
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
J.A. Happ's next scheduled start is on Friday, which is also the Phillies' last game before the trade deadline. Happ, of course, is no stranger to trade speculation. After last year's deadline, when his name continued to pop up in the Phillies' unsuccessful talks with the Blue Jays, he admitted to being relieved that the process was over. This year, he may have to go through it again. The Phillies continue to explore a possible trade for Astros righthander Roy Oswalt, but these types of deals almost always require a team to part with a young starter who is either major league ready or close to it. The Angels landed Dan Haren by trading big leaguer Joe Saunders. The Phillies sent Carlos Carrasco to the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal and Kyle Drabek to the Blue Jays in the Halladay deal, and Josh Outman to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal two years ago. But the Phillies don't have any polished starting pitching prospects left in their system, which is where Happ factors in. . .
1) For whatever reason, the Phillies have never acted as if they are sold on Happ as a long-term fixture in their rotation. He lost out on a spot in the rotation last spring training in favor of journeyman righthander Chan Ho Park. After he replaced the struggling Park, his name continually popped up in trade negotiations despite being perhaps their most consistent starter. He was left out of the playoff rotation despite going 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 23 starts during the regular season. Then, earlier this month, he was optioned back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after he was activated from the disabled list.
All he's done is go 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and .246 BAA while averaging 6.0 innings in 31 starts (pretty much the equivalent of a big league season). But hey. . .
2) That being said, the Phils suffer more from a lack pitching depth than a lack of top-of-the-rotation production. Oswalt, a legitimate ace for the last decade, would make for an intriguing addition to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. But if he comes at the expense of Happ, the Phillies will have done nothing to improve their overall starting pitching depth, the lack of which is the biggest reason for their current situation. The Phillies only have three starters under contract for next season -- Halladay, Hamels and Joe Blanton -- so they will likely need to add at least one more before spring training. Oswalt is far better than any of the free agent options who could be available (see below). But again, if he is added at the expense of Happ, the Phillies are left with three No. 1 starters, a good No. 4, and Kyle Kendrick, with no obvious depth at Triple-A in case of injury or ineffectiveness.
Even if the Phillies aren't enamored with Happ's upside, or if they are worried about the forearm strain that cost him 2.5 months of the season (they say he is healthy, and his velocity was back yesterday, but his command has been rustier-than-normal since spring training), he still gives them flexibility because he is cheap and under their control.
3) Among the starting pitchers who are eligible for free agency after the season: Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Ted Lilly, Brett Myers, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Chris Young, Brad Penny, Jorge DeLaRosa, Dave Bush, Aaron Harang, Kevin Correia, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla.
4) Happ's situation is tough to forecast because he has missed most of the season. Charlie Manuel said yesterday he thinks Happ just needs more work to iron out some of the command struggles he had against the Rockies. But he won't have much of a chance to get more work before the trade deadline.
5) Obviously, we aren't talking about Happ-for-Oswalt straight up. The big question is, when you factor in the downsides of trading Happ with the financial committment to Oswalt for 2011 (He's owed $16 million and has talked about wanting his $16 million option for 2012 picked up, but a lot could happen between the Phils and Astros in that department), as well as Oswalt's small-town demeanor, along with the potential of having to trade away Jayson Wertht to complete the package, the question becomes, is it worth it?
Assuming Oswalt stays healthy through the end of next season, you can make a strong case for it. But you don't assume he stays healthy, you can make a strong case against it.
HaHa, that's funny ... trade Kendrick and Aumont for a closer ..... LMAO .... you want a closer from rookie league ball? That's what those two will get you!— JBinPA- Happ is already 28 years old - he's reached his max, which is a middle-of-the-rotation guy (3rd or 4th). As someone that usually preaches keeping young talent, I would give up Happ in a heartbeat to get Oswalt.— Chewey
- Don't worry, RAJ is a desperate attemtpt to cover his a** from all his earlier mistakes will trade Werth for an over the hill pitcher with a bad arm and a big contract! Fire RAJ, not Milt Thompson!— JBinPA
- Most of you people are idiots... just like Ruben Amaro Jr.— PSU DEJA BLUE
- Over the hill like Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Kendrick, and Halladay, el zorro?— smfree31
- Sadly, they have to trade Happ to get a top starter because the rest of the league is not stupid. They know that Happ is better than Blanton or Kendrick and that is why they want him. I just don't get it as we should move Kendrick or one or two of the great Single A prospects before Happ IMO. I would try everything I could not to trade Happ for Oswalt or anyone else.— matty177
- I'm not sure how they make any trades right now. You cannot trade Werth because your only other right handed options are John Mayberry and Ben Francisco. Ibanez can go because they have to bring up Brown soon, but no one wants him. Kendrick, and Blanton the same. I'm afraid they either win now with what they got, or they sign some free agents in the winter, and try to do it next year. I hate to say it, but you have to try to sign Lee in the off season.
- No smfree, like Baez, Contreras, Moyer... BTW, Hamels has been with Dubee and Charlie for 5 years already, and still has not claimed the Ace status yet, although he has shown flashes of brilliance. Blanton has never put a good full season and seems to have his annual mechanic issues early in the year. JA Happ has been nothing but a great find and yet he can't get a define role with the team. And Kendrick has been treated like a black sheep after a good rookie season two years ago. Like a month ago, he stopped a losing streak by beating the 1st Braves and was reward the day after in the paper with a rant from Charlie about his lack of aggressiveness and poor tempo. He was send down a few weeks ago after a very good stretch where he went 5-2 with and ERA under 3.50. Then was called back after Jamie went down and allowed 1 run in 7 innings. Go figure. That's what I'm talking about.— EL Zorro
- Blanton is why we have to get Oswalt. It is a disgrace that Amaro signed him to a three year contract when he could have let him walk. He is off to another bad start today. Happ is our best starter after Halladay and Hamels but we have to trade him to get a top three starter. Unbelievable. Thanks, Rueben.— matty177
- Trade Happ while he still has value. The Sixers should have traded Iguodala five years ago when he still had value.— Gnip Gnop
- Will somebody PLEASE convince the cigar-billionaire owner of the Phillies to go after CLIFF LEE in the off-season!!..PLEASE!!— PhillieJoe
- Happ really isn't that young; he's already 27. Oswalt is 32.— Truth B. Told
- So, let me get this straight. The Phils are going to trade a youthful player with a decent to bright future for another veteran who is probably going to fly the coop in about two years? Mark Davis, Ryne Sandberg, Michael Bourne, Lonnie Smith ... this all sounds very familiar.— Mike Kotyk
- Has anyone looked at Oswalt's numbers this season? 6-12 w/ a 3.42 ERA?? He got blasted by the Reds on Saturday night giving up 2 homers and 6 runs in 5 innings. That's not the pitcher we need.— F. Harry Stowe
- Please keep in mind that other than Hamels, who hasn't claimed ace status, the Phils coaches, owners, GM or scouts haven't successfully drafted, groomed and retained a #1 pitcher in MANY years. So while you're trying to figure out why they want to dump Haap, dumped Draybek, kept Myers for so long, overpaid Blanton, and seemingly can't teach Kendrick how to be a consistent sinker ball pitcher...keep in mind that they just don't know pitching. Period. Evaluating Halladay is easy. Evaluating Hamels, Haap, Blanton, Kendrick, Moyer, Myers, Eaton, Garcia, Baez, Eyre, Contrareas, & Chan Ho Park is not. For them.— MichaelZoe
