J.A. Happ and the trade deadline, The Sequel
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J.A. Happ and the trade deadline, The Sequel
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
J.A. Happ's next scheduled start is on Friday, which is also the Phillies' last game before the trade deadline. Happ, of course, is no stranger to trade speculation. After last year's deadline, when his name continued to pop up in the Phillies' unsuccessful talks with the Blue Jays, he admitted to being relieved that the process was over. This year, he may have to go through it again. The Phillies continue to explore a possible trade for Astros righthander Roy Oswalt, but these types of deals almost always require a team to part with a young starter who is either major league ready or close to it. The Angels landed Dan Haren by trading big leaguer Joe Saunders. The Phillies sent Carlos Carrasco to the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal and Kyle Drabek to the Blue Jays in the Halladay deal, and Josh Outman to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal two years ago. But the Phillies don't have any polished starting pitching prospects left in their system, which is where Happ factors in. . .
1) For whatever reason, the Phillies have never acted as if they are sold on Happ as a long-term fixture in their rotation. He lost out on a spot in the rotation last spring training in favor of journeyman righthander Chan Ho Park. After he replaced the struggling Park, his name continually popped up in trade negotiations despite being perhaps their most consistent starter. He was left out of the playoff rotation despite going 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 23 starts during the regular season. Then, earlier this month, he was optioned back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after he was activated from the disabled list.
All he's done is go 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and .246 BAA while averaging 6.0 innings in 31 starts (pretty much the equivalent of a big league season). But hey. . .
2) That being said, the Phils suffer more from a lack pitching depth than a lack of top-of-the-rotation production. Oswalt, a legitimate ace for the last decade, would make for an intriguing addition to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. But if he comes at the expense of Happ, the Phillies will have done nothing to improve their overall starting pitching depth, the lack of which is the biggest reason for their current situation. The Phillies only have three starters under contract for next season -- Halladay, Hamels and Joe Blanton -- so they will likely need to add at least one more before spring training. Oswalt is far better than any of the free agent options who could be available (see below). But again, if he is added at the expense of Happ, the Phillies are left with three No. 1 starters, a good No. 4, and Kyle Kendrick, with no obvious depth at Triple-A in case of injury or ineffectiveness.
Even if the Phillies aren't enamored with Happ's upside, or if they are worried about the forearm strain that cost him 2.5 months of the season (they say he is healthy, and his velocity was back yesterday, but his command has been rustier-than-normal since spring training), he still gives them flexibility because he is cheap and under their control.
3) Among the starting pitchers who are eligible for free agency after the season: Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Ted Lilly, Brett Myers, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Chris Young, Brad Penny, Jorge DeLaRosa, Dave Bush, Aaron Harang, Kevin Correia, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla.
4) Happ's situation is tough to forecast because he has missed most of the season. Charlie Manuel said yesterday he thinks Happ just needs more work to iron out some of the command struggles he had against the Rockies. But he won't have much of a chance to get more work before the trade deadline.
5) Obviously, we aren't talking about Happ-for-Oswalt straight up. The big question is, when you factor in the downsides of trading Happ with the financial committment to Oswalt for 2011 (He's owed $16 million and has talked about wanting his $16 million option for 2012 picked up, but a lot could happen between the Phils and Astros in that department), as well as Oswalt's small-town demeanor, along with the potential of having to trade away Jayson Wertht to complete the package, the question becomes, is it worth it?
Assuming Oswalt stays healthy through the end of next season, you can make a strong case for it. But you don't assume he stays healthy, you can make a strong case against it.
Charlie and Dubee don't like young players, especially pitchers, period. They rather send over-the-hill starters and relievers than develop young pitchers.— EL Zorro- Happ has been nothing but consistently good since the day he was first called up. His name should NEVER be included in trade talk. He's still young, cheap, and effective. I wouldn't even trade him for Oswalt (who might be a year away from an elbow blowout). Call me crazy, but I'd like to see the Phils contend for the next 10 years. Not have 4 great seasons then go back to losing 90 games yearly until 2022.— Hugh Jass
- So in conclusion if Oswalt stays healthy the trade would probably be worth it and he doesn't it probably wouldn't. You're really going out on a limb with that insight :)— pgcd3
- I'd rather try to convince the Rays to give us Matt Garza for Jayson Werth. The ultimate goatee swap! Garza is younger and cheaper than Oswalt.— clunkerlane
- I am so annoyed by their disdain for Happ and loyalty to Lidge. Why are they trying to get a starter when the time bomb is closing out games? Please tell me that they are at least considering bringing up Mathieson to close out games or he is in a deal that will bring us a proven closer not named Baez or Lidge. Is Lindstrom in the Houston deal? Stop trying to reel in a big fish when water is crashing over the bow.— truemoderate
- The biggest word: IF. If the team hits, the pitchers relax and things work out, as was shown by Kendrick on Saturday. If Halladay and Hamels can continue to pitch effectively, I don't see the upside to bringing in someone like Oswalt, or anyone on that list for that matter. Happ looked ok, but his command was not there; the next start will be more interesting. I'd sit pat, then swallow my pride and go after Lee in the Fall. The future should be top flight pitching and stellar defense.— ijj
- Seriously, what is their problem with Happ? The guys does nothing but win for them, and they keep trying to trade him. Oswalt is past his prime and is afraid of a northeast media market. This would be yet another stupid trade.— john421
- Dave please stop with the small town bias in all of your collums. Its getting old. I would ask you Dave what do you like so much about Haap? If the Phillies were so impressed with Haap then why did Charlie not use him during the playoffs? There is something about Haap that just does not impress the Phillies. If we could get Oswalt for Haap plus some Sinlg A prospects you would be crazy not to do that deal. Blanton is not going anywhere and Kendrick is ok at No 5. The Phils should NOT trade Werth without getting a MLB power hitting right handed bat.— Bob65S
- Trade Blanton for Oswalt and keep Happ.— spittooncj
- Oswalt could blow out an elbow next season, Happ could have a shoulder problem next year. You can what if on starting pitching when you are talking about trading for Oswalt, he's 31 not 37.— bobf876
- Depends on perspective. If recent resurgence albeit only a few games is a harbinger of a big charge to the playoffs then you rather have Oswalt which gives us a top three better than any potential playoff opponent in either league. Plus Happ is probably at best a number three starter so certainly worth the sacrifice. Not sure one has to trade Werth given the Haren deal and St Louis saying today they are out of it, seems to me that we are the only legit trading partner for Wade so even RAJ should be able to keep the price down— davi
- @clunkerlane - awesome comment. Funny and plausible! DO IT!!— Hollywood Junkie
- Blanton is untradeable. No one would take on Blanton's salary. That is one of the other worst mistakes the batboy Rube did.— Bob65S
- Trade Kendrick and Aumont for a closer. Get Happ back in the rotation--he'll be fine after a few outings. Roll the dice with one of our top pitching prospects. Then reload on starting pitching next year!
- I agree. Charlie and Dubee never want to develop young pitchers.— alihajishank
