Is adding an Oswalt or Haren a smart move?
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Is adding an Oswalt or Haren a smart move?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There was a lot of talk about the future seven months ago when the Phillies finished their little wife swap with the Blue Jays and Mariners. Some of the rationale -- Halladay for three years versus Lee for one --made a lot of sense at the time. Some of it -- trading away two birds in hand, namely Lee and Drabek, because the one in the bush was Halladay -- made a little bit of sense at the time. And some of it -- namely leaving the organization with a net loss in starting pitching depth without addressing either of its other glaring weakness, catching and middle infield -- won't make sense unless J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies and Phillippe Aumont realize the vast upside they are said to have (No pressure, guys).
But while fans may have been frustrated by all of the talk about "future" in the wake of a second straight World Series berth, they can only hope that similar talk dominates the Phillies' internal conversations as they hold out hope for a third.
And within that conversation, the question: Is it possible to lock up $12.75 million or $16 million in another starting pitcher next season while parting with significant minor league talent without hampering the Phillies ability to upgrade the various other areas of the team that have emerged as concerns this season?
They already have $130.35 million committed to 15 players next season. Like it or not, the Phillies operate on a budget. Every dollar they spend on a pitcher is a dollar less they can spend elsewhere. We don't know what that budget is. This year, all indications pointed toward the $140 million mark. Even if ownership OK's an increase to $155 million, the addition of Oswalt would leave them $9 million to pay another starting pitcher (J.A. Happ, if he isn't traded?), a right fielder (Domonic Brown?), three bench players, and four relievers.
Look, upgrading now and upgrading in the future are not mutually exclusive. And the Phillies seem to be thinking along those lines as they target Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. Both pitchers would help this season. And both would help next year. There is no argument about either statement.
What there is some argument about is whether the acquisition of either man would be worth the sacrifice it could take in other areas of the team.
The Phillies have lost six of eight games since the start of the second half of the season. They entered today seven games behind the Braves in the National League East, and four games out of the Wild Card, with five teams in front of them. They've overcome a similar deficit in far less time. But it is important to note that even in 2007, when they came back from 7 games down with 17 to play, they were 4 games back in the NL East and 2 back in the Wild Card at the non-waiver trade deadline.
You can't ignore their past history of getting hot quick. But you also can't ignore the odds.
More than anything, though, you can't ignore the fact that this team is a lot farther away from serious postseason consideration than a starting pitcher who is going to take the mound in 10 to 12 of their remaining 68 games. And the reasons they are a lot further away might not simply disappear over the offseason.
Maybe Raul Ibanez is due to bounce back. Or, if he isn't, Ben Francisco can break out. Or, at the very least, the two can form a platoon. Maybe Domonic Brown will be Andrew McCutchen, and the Phillies will have another superstar to pair with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Maybe Brad Lidge will pitch like an $11.5-million-a-year closer, and Danys Baez will pitch like a $2.5-million-a-year reliever, and Ryan Madson will continue to be Ryan Madson, and the other four bullpen spots can be filled by cheap homegrown players. Maybe Jimmy Rollins will be the player he was in the last three months of 2009, and not the player he has been in his four other healthy months over the last couple of seasons.
Maybe none of those guys will get hurt, and the Phillies will be able to get away with paying a Juan Castro-type $700,000 for his glove and versatility. And maybe they won't need to add a competent fourth outfielder.
Maybe Roy Halladay and the new pitcher, be it Haren or Oswalt, stays health despite 5-to-10 years of 200+ innings on their arms.
If all that happens, then maybe adding another top-flight pitcher makes sense. And maybe trading away a cheap, controllable starter like J.A. Happ makes sense. And maybe, if you trade away Jayson Werth, shipping those presumably promising prospects to a Houston or Arizona instead of keeping them makes sense.
Maybe the first four months of 2010 were a fluke, and this Phillies offense is in a brief recession instead of a steep decline, and the Phillies can enjoy these next two seasons while their mother lode of young talent in Class A works its way toward the majors.
Or maybe not.
Which is why any move that the Phillies contemplate over the next eight days should involve some heavy meditation on the ramifications for next season and beyond. That means financial ramifications as well as personnel ramifications.
As tempting as Oswalt or Haren may be, perhaps the Phillies really would be better served focusing their efforts on other areas that would still improve them this season while also leaving them more flexibility in the future.
At this point, we're just throwing names out there as hypotheticals. But take a guy like Jose Bautista, who could play second base until Utley returns, and outfield afterward, and would be around next season to either provide some right-handed power off the bench or work into the outfield rotation (He has killed lefties in his career, although not as much this season), while also providing some infield depth? What if you could get him and a reliever, both of whom would be around next season, from the Blue Jays? And what if you could get them for half of the minor league talent it would take to get Haren or Oswalt, while also saving $4 million in salary that could be spent elsewhere?
Again, hypotheticals. All things, I'm sure, the Phillies have discussed amongst themselves. The big question is which philosophy they will err toward. Over the offseason, it was away from immediate organizational depth and toward three years into the future when they traded away Drabek and Lee. It's safe to say that has yet to work out as planned.
This year, it will be fascinating to see what they do.
Consider this, though. . .
Back in 2006, the Boston Red Sox were barely hanging onto first place in the AL East as the trade deadline approached. Josh Beckett was having an awful season. The only starting pitcher in their rotation with an era under 4.60 was an aging Curt Schilling. Rookie starter Jon Lester had only recently been called up.
There was pressure on the Red Sox to go all-in in the trade market. They won the World Series in 2004, then lost in the ALDS the next year despite winning 95 games. They had a declining closer in Keith Foulke, who lost his job to rookie Jonathan Papelbon. As the trade deadline neared, names like Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen were in the thick of trade rumors.
But when July 31 had come and gone, the Red Sox had stood pat. They added no salary. The parted with no prospects. And they finished in third place in the AL East.
But the next season, they signed outfielder J.D. Drew and pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka to big deals. They promoted Dustin Pedroia to second base. They added reliever Hideki Okajima and paired him with Papelbon. The Red Sox won the World Series that season.
The Phillies don't have prospects like Lester and Papelbon. The comparison isn't perfect.
But as you clamor for another top-of-the-line starter to replace the departed Lee, keep it in mind.
Agreed. The obstacles facing this year's squad are more complex than the lack of another top-starter. And Moyer and Werth are off books in 2011. Ibanez and Lidge are off books in 2012. Let's all take a deep-breath. Maybe we use the rest of the season to heal and settle down, and come into 2011 healthy and re-stocked.— smel4727- ....but we do have prospects like Lester and Papelbon---Aumont and Mathieson---wake up and smell the roses.— Romus
- 3.5 out of the wild card, not 4. and only 3 in the loss column
- Excellent article. I've been saying something similar for days now. Why chase something this year when the stars just aren't aligned our way? Better to cut our losses and re-group for next year, when there will still be holes to plug and dollars needed to spend. In my opinion, acquiring Oswalt (who has a history of a bad back and cortisone shots) and guaranteeing his option year in the process, will haunt this team down the line. Big money will be needed to extend Hamels and sign a replacement for Lidge. Ruben, please do what is right and don't make (another) ill-advised move this year. It will only compound the current problem and hinder future championship runs.— UncleEddie
- Run all the statistics you want, compare players, trades and future hopes, it all comes down to one thing. The Phillies are a contending team. They, while falling back a little bit right now, are set to contend for a postseason berth this year---and the team is constructed to do so again next year as well. In October pitching rules. If you have the chance to add a pitcher like Oswalt or Haren and not seriously disrupt your team (trading a stud minor leaguer who's never played a day in the majors does not constitue distrupting the ML team), you do it. Do you want Oswalt/Haren or Blanton facing off against Garcia, Jurrjens and Burnett? The Philies top two match up with anybody in baseball. In a big game I'd take Halladay over Sabathia and Wainwright and Hudson, Hamels over Carpenter and Hanson---I'd still give the big-game edge to Pettite as he's got five rings and has done it time and time again. Face it...if Cole Hamels had grown up last year and stepped up in game 3, and another pitcher who will remain nameless stepped up and DEMANDED the ball in game 4 so he could potentially pitch a 7th game, Rollins prediction would have come true, and the series never would have made it back to the Bronx. Pitching rules...if you have a chance to add an ace, you do whatever you can do to make it happen...— Eilex826
Comment removed.- Stand pat, ride it out. The only chance this team has is if they start to hit. Oswalt or Haren is not an answer; it would be a mistake.— wooderice
- Brown is the best player not in the major leagues. Mathieson is 19 for 22 in save opportunities at AAA. Worley has not given up a hit in his last in 18.2 innings as a starter at AA. Rizzotti's leading the league in hitting at AA. Harold Garcia broke a 60 year record for consecutive games with a hit in the Flordia State League and is now hitting over .300 at AA. The only problem is Ruben won't give them a chance at the final level.— Dull
- We need Bullpen help. We need a reliable closer. Oswalt does not want to come here and I could care less about Hardin. Fact is we had LEE and Ruben screwed up. Lets keep Werth for the rest of the year. Lets bring up Dominic Brown and bench Ibanez. Lets just go with Haap and Kendrick and see were that gets us.— Bob65S
- Eilex826: Are you advocating trading Dominic Brown? Withe all due respect what other propsects do the Phils have that could possibly convince rebuilding teams like Houston and Arizona to give up Oswalt and Haren?— bvillebaron
- Great thoughts Murph. I know the Phils do have a budget, but I think Monty and the no-name owners need to keep in mind how great it has been down at CBP. I'm 32 and I've never seen people so excited about the Phils and flocking religiously to the stadium night after night. The owners need to suck it up. Their boy Rubes screwed up by trading you know who. The majority of this nucleus is in its early thirties, so you still have a very reasonable shot to win it again in the next 2-3 years before having to restock. Adding an Oswalt or Haren would give you possibly the best rotation in baseball for another 2 years. Get a deal done Rubes!— jimmydugan
- seems to me that we have chips to trade....to a varying degree, aumont, gillies, ramirez, gose, singleton, cosart, colvin, may, mathieson, rizotti, flande are all guys that other teams would want....singleton would have to wait till 2018 to play here, so trade him while he's hot along with another speedster who will be lucky if his upside is michael bourn. dont trade our young pitching. win-win.— djacobs5582
- Great piece Murph! I agree 100% about Bautista. I can't beleive he's not on the radar right now. As far as I am concerned the only Starter out there worth going after, and giving away the farm for (maybe even Brown) is Zach Greinke, who as of this afternoon, is available, according to a few sources. Haren and Oswalt are not the answer. Not if you're playing for today and the future.— joecatz
- Haren runs out of gas in the second half of the season. He has for the past few seasons. But he can hit very well and they could use him as a pinch hitter. They do need offense. His batting avg is .364 with 6 doubles. His ERA is higher then that 4.60— ideaman
- bvillebaron...No, I am not advocating trading Dominic Brown...at least not for Haren or Oswalt. Are their players and teams I would trade Brown for? Yes, of course. My point was that minor league talent is not the be-all-end-all, and I'd rather have major league success rather than minor league talent. Brown is not completely untradeable, but the deal would have to be right. Dom Brown, Utley and Happ to the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and Johnathan Broxton? Not a deal that would ever happen but it would be a fair trade and most would (or should) agree to part with Brown for that. IN order to trade Brown they'd have to get a stud back...pithcer, position player, etc. They'd have to get Lincecum, King Felix, Kemp, David Price and BJ Upton, that kind of player. I'd not move Brown for anything less than a franchise star or package of players significantly better than what you have now...— Eilex826
