Is adding an Oswalt or Haren a smart move?
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Is adding an Oswalt or Haren a smart move?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There was a lot of talk about the future seven months ago when the Phillies finished their little wife swap with the Blue Jays and Mariners. Some of the rationale -- Halladay for three years versus Lee for one --made a lot of sense at the time. Some of it -- trading away two birds in hand, namely Lee and Drabek, because the one in the bush was Halladay -- made a little bit of sense at the time. And some of it -- namely leaving the organization with a net loss in starting pitching depth without addressing either of its other glaring weakness, catching and middle infield -- won't make sense unless J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies and Phillippe Aumont realize the vast upside they are said to have (No pressure, guys).
But while fans may have been frustrated by all of the talk about "future" in the wake of a second straight World Series berth, they can only hope that similar talk dominates the Phillies' internal conversations as they hold out hope for a third.
And within that conversation, the question: Is it possible to lock up $12.75 million or $16 million in another starting pitcher next season while parting with significant minor league talent without hampering the Phillies ability to upgrade the various other areas of the team that have emerged as concerns this season?
They already have $130.35 million committed to 15 players next season. Like it or not, the Phillies operate on a budget. Every dollar they spend on a pitcher is a dollar less they can spend elsewhere. We don't know what that budget is. This year, all indications pointed toward the $140 million mark. Even if ownership OK's an increase to $155 million, the addition of Oswalt would leave them $9 million to pay another starting pitcher (J.A. Happ, if he isn't traded?), a right fielder (Domonic Brown?), three bench players, and four relievers.
Look, upgrading now and upgrading in the future are not mutually exclusive. And the Phillies seem to be thinking along those lines as they target Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. Both pitchers would help this season. And both would help next year. There is no argument about either statement.
What there is some argument about is whether the acquisition of either man would be worth the sacrifice it could take in other areas of the team.
The Phillies have lost six of eight games since the start of the second half of the season. They entered today seven games behind the Braves in the National League East, and four games out of the Wild Card, with five teams in front of them. They've overcome a similar deficit in far less time. But it is important to note that even in 2007, when they came back from 7 games down with 17 to play, they were 4 games back in the NL East and 2 back in the Wild Card at the non-waiver trade deadline.
You can't ignore their past history of getting hot quick. But you also can't ignore the odds.
More than anything, though, you can't ignore the fact that this team is a lot farther away from serious postseason consideration than a starting pitcher who is going to take the mound in 10 to 12 of their remaining 68 games. And the reasons they are a lot further away might not simply disappear over the offseason.
Maybe Raul Ibanez is due to bounce back. Or, if he isn't, Ben Francisco can break out. Or, at the very least, the two can form a platoon. Maybe Domonic Brown will be Andrew McCutchen, and the Phillies will have another superstar to pair with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Maybe Brad Lidge will pitch like an $11.5-million-a-year closer, and Danys Baez will pitch like a $2.5-million-a-year reliever, and Ryan Madson will continue to be Ryan Madson, and the other four bullpen spots can be filled by cheap homegrown players. Maybe Jimmy Rollins will be the player he was in the last three months of 2009, and not the player he has been in his four other healthy months over the last couple of seasons.
Maybe none of those guys will get hurt, and the Phillies will be able to get away with paying a Juan Castro-type $700,000 for his glove and versatility. And maybe they won't need to add a competent fourth outfielder.
Maybe Roy Halladay and the new pitcher, be it Haren or Oswalt, stays health despite 5-to-10 years of 200+ innings on their arms.
If all that happens, then maybe adding another top-flight pitcher makes sense. And maybe trading away a cheap, controllable starter like J.A. Happ makes sense. And maybe, if you trade away Jayson Werth, shipping those presumably promising prospects to a Houston or Arizona instead of keeping them makes sense.
Maybe the first four months of 2010 were a fluke, and this Phillies offense is in a brief recession instead of a steep decline, and the Phillies can enjoy these next two seasons while their mother lode of young talent in Class A works its way toward the majors.
Or maybe not.
Which is why any move that the Phillies contemplate over the next eight days should involve some heavy meditation on the ramifications for next season and beyond. That means financial ramifications as well as personnel ramifications.
As tempting as Oswalt or Haren may be, perhaps the Phillies really would be better served focusing their efforts on other areas that would still improve them this season while also leaving them more flexibility in the future.
At this point, we're just throwing names out there as hypotheticals. But take a guy like Jose Bautista, who could play second base until Utley returns, and outfield afterward, and would be around next season to either provide some right-handed power off the bench or work into the outfield rotation (He has killed lefties in his career, although not as much this season), while also providing some infield depth? What if you could get him and a reliever, both of whom would be around next season, from the Blue Jays? And what if you could get them for half of the minor league talent it would take to get Haren or Oswalt, while also saving $4 million in salary that could be spent elsewhere?
Again, hypotheticals. All things, I'm sure, the Phillies have discussed amongst themselves. The big question is which philosophy they will err toward. Over the offseason, it was away from immediate organizational depth and toward three years into the future when they traded away Drabek and Lee. It's safe to say that has yet to work out as planned.
This year, it will be fascinating to see what they do.
Consider this, though. . .
Back in 2006, the Boston Red Sox were barely hanging onto first place in the AL East as the trade deadline approached. Josh Beckett was having an awful season. The only starting pitcher in their rotation with an era under 4.60 was an aging Curt Schilling. Rookie starter Jon Lester had only recently been called up.
There was pressure on the Red Sox to go all-in in the trade market. They won the World Series in 2004, then lost in the ALDS the next year despite winning 95 games. They had a declining closer in Keith Foulke, who lost his job to rookie Jonathan Papelbon. As the trade deadline neared, names like Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen were in the thick of trade rumors.
But when July 31 had come and gone, the Red Sox had stood pat. They added no salary. The parted with no prospects. And they finished in third place in the AL East.
But the next season, they signed outfielder J.D. Drew and pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka to big deals. They promoted Dustin Pedroia to second base. They added reliever Hideki Okajima and paired him with Papelbon. The Red Sox won the World Series that season.
The Phillies don't have prospects like Lester and Papelbon. The comparison isn't perfect.
But as you clamor for another top-of-the-line starter to replace the departed Lee, keep it in mind.
I don't believe the Phillies ae a contending team. IN the NL they rank 11th in hitting ( a meager .254 and falling every week), and 9th in pitching. So how does a below average team in both pitching and hitting become a contender? Face it, JRoll's hitting is next to zero, Utley is hurt all the time, Ibanez is terrible, Vic is a wild swinger, and Werth has little plate discipline. He's operating as though he is Vlad, who can swing at anything and hit it. Werth cannot and is not contributing much. Pitching - we have Halladay and Hamels and nothing else. Contender, yes, but for the bottom half of the standings.— 4thand10- Whoa - your line, ". . . the Phillies finished their little wife swap" is certainly coincidental, if not ironic, given the alleged Werth/Utley situation.— Truth B. Told
- problem is, there is not one thing you can point to and solve the Phillies' issues by addressing it. I happen to think it's not starting pitching, so I'm willing to see what Happ and Kendrick can do, although I don't expect miracles. Agree with wooderice; If the lineup and bench guys approached their career average batting numbers, they would be winning more games. I also think next year lots of guys will be in their final contract year, some maybe too old/too many miles on them to have much trade value, but the suits can be more methodical in filling in the roster. Maybe getting Lee last year was an extremely lucky, one-off event; we should not expect that to be the benchmark for trade deadline deals, or else we're always going to feel short-changed.— ijj
- Seems to me like we need much more than a starter. Unless Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt is going to start be the guy who comes off the bench with the bases loaded in the top of the 8th in a tie ballgame to replace the pitcher and then stay in the game to pitch relief after he singles home two, I think we stand pat. The other night couldn't have been a more pronounced statement that we are much farther than an aging starting pitcher away from the playoffs.— Mills
- Glad you are back Murph.. tell Hagen to stay away from your blog.— madecaro
- If Greinke is available,he would be ideal. I would move Ms Vicki for him NOW. RoyO has been iffy of late and has a few grays, and Haran gives up a load of hits. If moving Brown is the price to pay to land a stud, I would tend to hold off. Dont give up on Happ, he had solid numbers in '09 and is working his way back. I suspect he will log several wins in this half.— mick314
- Zack Greinke— Guy Incognito
- Hits the nail on the head. Getting one of these pitchers is far from the right move. This season we have had injuries all over the place, poor seasons from a number of players working back from injury. Raul Ibanez has died and just like a cicada, left merely his shell in left field. Throwing prospects around to get a pitcher who will only be involved in 10 games makes no sense. Much better to have long term viability. You can't always "chase the night"— boredjake
- Folks, keep one thing in mind when discussing a potential trade with the Astros: their GM is Ed Wade. We might very well get Roy Oswalt for a bucket of baseballs. That moron has no clue how to run a MLB team, and we've seen that he has run a once decent Houston team directly into the ground. No, we don't have to give Dmonoci Brown up to get Oswalt: Ed Wade is so clueless, he'd probably give us Oswalt for Danys Baez and an Italian Hoagie.— JGT
- JGT...why was Ed Wade so clueless and didn't know how to run a baseball team? I believe under his watch, where payroll was limited to the $70M range roughly, teh team drafted, signed, developed many players who have contributed to the team's world series appearances. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers, Bourn (who got us Lidge), etc., and the list goes on. The true mark of a great GM is that the team sustains success after he has left. Bill Parcells is great at making teams good, then he leaves and it falls apart almost instantly. Pat Gillick built the Blue Jays, built the Mariners and then walked away and they crumbled. Ed Wade wasn't here to see the end result but a lot of the Phillies successes over the last couple of years ride directly on the coattails of Ed Wade and his staff while he was here.— Eilex826
- i would never count this team out. never. the yanks are reportedly looking for a pitcher. i don't think the phils are okay with their rotation. they do need to get a legit starter. with that being said, i don't want that to prevent phils from pursuing lee in the offseason. i don't think we as fans should just accept that the phils don't want to spend the money on him. we deserve to have lee.— liberty_bell
i admire the patience of you fans content to retool for 2011. but as a witness to 2007 (read: 7 games out of 1st place, 17 games left to play, and still a division title) i am more like rocky when it comes to throwing in the towel... apollo creed will die first.- are you kidding? for intents and purposes we have 3 pitchers right now. thats 3 pitchers who have seemed to handle a season's workload. let alone only halladay and hamels who are keeping us in games. we need another starting pitcher and it would be worth(werth?) whatever it takes. also someone was telling me victorino could be used as trade bait? i hope not id rather keep him based on the current situation (werth becoming a free agent.)— theeman
I am on the side of developing homegrown players. The biggest reason: Teams that develop their own players win WS. If you want a team chock full of FA's- look at the Mets. Reason 2: the Phillies have had a good recent showing with homegrown talent. By all accounts, this trend may continue. I would rather be like the Twins or Rangers, with the makeup of their teams. Only, The Phillies are rich enough to add a FA that will put them over the top. History speaks.— road515- I would say stand pat and retool for the future. Oswalt does not want to come to Philly as a passionate fans why would we want someone who wants to really play for St Louis. Secondly Haren may cost us more now and hurt our chances to be in a better position next year to pick up a quality pitcher without being in such a bind. I agree Zach Grienke would be good for our team and as for Cliff Lee,I understand we speak of him way too much but at least he wanted to and I believe still wants to play in Philly.— Overbrook Runner
