Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way.
Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way. I still would not be surprised if the Phillies landed a right-handed power bat like Scott Hairston, but any such player is likely to be a part-time player struggled against right-handed pitching while mashing lefties.
We'll give a deeper review of the Phillies offseason in the coming weeks. For now, though, let's look at how this offense might look, with unproven players starting the season in a rotation in both left and right field (and, frankly, I'm not sure that you can say that Ben Revere is proven in center field either).
I took each player's totals over the last three seasons combined and used those rates to project a 2013 season based on a specific number of plate appearances. Here is what I got, and how those numbers compare to last season's totals.
| Player | PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | SB | CS |
| Darin Ruf | 450 | .305 | .386 | .520 | .906 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 425 | .303 | .387 | .454 | .841 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Howard | 675 | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Utley | 675 | .264 | .366 | .433 | .800 | 19 | 19 | 2 |
| Michael Young | 675 | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 675 | .255 | .324 | .405 | .729 | 18 | 30 | 5 |
| Ben Revere | 675 | .278 | .317 | .323 | .639 | 0 | 47 | 12 |
| Domonic Brown | 450 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Laynce Nix | 300 | .260 | .315 | .444 | .760 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| John Mayberry Jr. | 325 | .257 | .317 | .446 | .763 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Erik Kratz | 300 | .227 | .281 | .431 | .712 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Frandsen | 183 | .299 | .339 | .392 | .731 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| PROJECTED 2013 | 6172 | .263 | .328 | .412 | .741 | 160 | 116 | 30 |
| 2012 TOTALS | 6172 | .255 | .317 | .400 | .716 | 158 | 116 | 23 |
These numbers don't really tell you much of anything except that even in a near-perfect world in which Michael Young, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard stay healthy for an entire season and log 675 plate appearances and Darin Ruf continues to hit at the ridiculous pace that marked his minor league career and Carlos Ruiz makes 425 plate appearances, the numbers still aren't overwhelming. A .741 team OPS would have ranked sixth in the National League last year (the Phillies .716 ranked eighth). The 160 home runs would have ranked seventh. The .328 OBP would have tied for third. The Nationals, for example, finished the season with a .261/.322/.428 battling line and 194 home runs, in addition to boasting the best pitching staff in the league.
Again, these numbers are assuming everybody stays healthy, and it assumes that each player will come close to producing as he has over the previous three seasons. In other words, it pretty much plans on an absolute best case scenario. The only potential wild card is Domonic Brown, who has hit .236/.315/.388 in two major league stints but certainly has the potential for more.
In fact, if everything remains as it is, the Phillies formula for offense in 2013 will essentially be the hope that young players like Brown, Ruf and Revere take huge steps forward while veterans like Utley, Rollins, Young and Howard remain healthy and stave off any precipitous decline in production (like the one that Young experienced last year).
- I have not idea why you and others are so down on Mayberry. He had many very clutch hits including very timely home runs which is not seen in merely looking at end of year stats. He is an excellent outfielder with an accurate cannon for an arm which saved runs and games and must be a part of the total picture. Take a look at his extra base hit percentage and understand that the guy has pop in his bat and if he were given an every day job without having to be pulled after a couple bad games, his production would improve. If he had 600 atbats he would be a 30-35 home run guy with 90 rbi's even if he hit only .250.
— jersey mark - Howard has become an almost automatic out against lefthanders. I know he makes $25 Million but he should be platooned with Ruf.— farley
- Heres to hoping Adams stays healthy. I see alot of close ballgames in our future.— Grazman
- Does anybody really know whether he's healthy now? I know I read reports that he would be ready to go by opening day, but that just means that without spring training, he's already behind the curve. And, when you hear that somebody will be ready by opening day, we all know how THAT can go when it comes to Amaro.
- Never had an impact player in their first year. How about Howard?— fish1463
- Will the first 10 games go by without a homer??? It has happened a few times last year. 10 games went by , then a HR flurry. Then nada. Injuries cut it down for sure. But, Revere is not a HR hitter nor is Young. Thus, they are depending on fading ball players. Not one real power guy unless miracles happen. So it is all about pitching. That is the entire enchilada.— Koons
- no, nor the pitching— warbiscuit
- mediocre trash assembled by the most incompetent g.m. in professional sports...worst team money can buy— warbiscuit
- If D. Brown bats .236 with 11 HR in 450 ABs as projected above, that's real bad. It needs to be much better. The rest of the projections seem reasonable, though there's no utility IF like Galvis.
Power numbers will be be low, which is why the Phillies will have to run Revere, Rollins, Utley and the rest -- a lot -- and see what happens. It's definitely not Manuel's brand of baseball.
— eman - Here's an interesting exercise that points out the futility of trying to predict on offense alone. Take Murphy's two lines and add the 2011 numbers, where they won a franchise high 102 games:
2012: PA=6172 BA=.255 OBP=.317 SLG=.400 OPS=.716 HR=158 SB=116 CS=23
PROJ: PA=6172 BA=.263 OBP=.328 SLG=.412 OPS=.741 HR=160 SB=116 CS=30
2011: PA=6279 BA=.253 OPB=.323 SLG=.395 OPS=.717 HR=153 SB=96 CS=24— s - You missed the part where they had a once in a generation, historic performance by a loaded pitching staff that had 3 aces have simultaneous career years and nobody on the staff with an off year. Any other team who had that in my lifetime (Orioles in the late 60s early 70s, '86 Mets, 1990s Braves) won several games more than 102. The '86 Mets won 108 games. The '69 Orioles won 109 and the '70 Orioles won 108. The Braves surpassed 102 wins three times in the 1990s. Never in my life has a team with such great pitching won so few games than the 2011 Phillies. — jtj06
- No, I didn't miss that. I get the fact that the 102 wins with the offense we had was a once in a lifetime deal. My point is that until we see the whole team play I'm not going to project wins and losses on offense alone. If the bullpen and rotation can combine for 10-11 more wins over last year and the offense even gets slightly better, we can make the post-season. The bullpen was averaging 33 wins from 2008-2011. Last year they had (I think) 22. If they just improve enough to split the difference, that's 5-6 more wins. And I understand some of those bullpen losses were offense related but look at that stretch from June to July where you couldn't go into the 8th with a 1-2 run lead and win a game. Statistically, the chances of Cliff Lee pitching 30 or more games and only winning 6 is also a once in a lifetime deal. He averages around 14 wins when he pitches 30 or more games. So if he splits his difference that's 4 more games.
The main point I was making is that it may be possible to ride the pitching once again and deal with any offensive issues at the trade deadline.
Since no big offensive moves were made, if I were Amaro I'd increase my pitching odds by adding one more experienced bullpen arm, possibly even a starter. If there's any extended DL time for any of the starters or for a few key bullpen arms then pitching isn't taking us anywhere.
— s - Uncharacteristic weaknesses of Phillies displayed last year, 1 Shoddy fielding, runs not given back means less you have to score, Revere at a discount price should solve this, 2 Eighth inning blackhole, (see above)Adams and more experienced existing personnell should answer this, 3 Catastrophic injuries to power-core, Howard and Utley, who knows with Utley but Howard will be ready,
4 loss of strong righthanded power bat in outfield, maybe Ruf and Brown can blossom 5 the hole at third, probably solved by Young short term and Asche long term, 6 a weak bench Wigginton et al— robinlupe - The plan is to hope Halladay, Lee, and Hamels are the 3 Aces again and we win a whole bunch of low scoring games.— Dan in Holmesburg
