Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way.
Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way. I still would not be surprised if the Phillies landed a right-handed power bat like Scott Hairston, but any such player is likely to be a part-time player struggled against right-handed pitching while mashing lefties.
We'll give a deeper review of the Phillies offseason in the coming weeks. For now, though, let's look at how this offense might look, with unproven players starting the season in a rotation in both left and right field (and, frankly, I'm not sure that you can say that Ben Revere is proven in center field either).
I took each player's totals over the last three seasons combined and used those rates to project a 2013 season based on a specific number of plate appearances. Here is what I got, and how those numbers compare to last season's totals.
| Player | PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | SB | CS |
| Darin Ruf | 450 | .305 | .386 | .520 | .906 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 425 | .303 | .387 | .454 | .841 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Howard | 675 | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Utley | 675 | .264 | .366 | .433 | .800 | 19 | 19 | 2 |
| Michael Young | 675 | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 675 | .255 | .324 | .405 | .729 | 18 | 30 | 5 |
| Ben Revere | 675 | .278 | .317 | .323 | .639 | 0 | 47 | 12 |
| Domonic Brown | 450 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Laynce Nix | 300 | .260 | .315 | .444 | .760 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| John Mayberry Jr. | 325 | .257 | .317 | .446 | .763 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Erik Kratz | 300 | .227 | .281 | .431 | .712 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Frandsen | 183 | .299 | .339 | .392 | .731 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| PROJECTED 2013 | 6172 | .263 | .328 | .412 | .741 | 160 | 116 | 30 |
| 2012 TOTALS | 6172 | .255 | .317 | .400 | .716 | 158 | 116 | 23 |
These numbers don't really tell you much of anything except that even in a near-perfect world in which Michael Young, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard stay healthy for an entire season and log 675 plate appearances and Darin Ruf continues to hit at the ridiculous pace that marked his minor league career and Carlos Ruiz makes 425 plate appearances, the numbers still aren't overwhelming. A .741 team OPS would have ranked sixth in the National League last year (the Phillies .716 ranked eighth). The 160 home runs would have ranked seventh. The .328 OBP would have tied for third. The Nationals, for example, finished the season with a .261/.322/.428 battling line and 194 home runs, in addition to boasting the best pitching staff in the league.
Again, these numbers are assuming everybody stays healthy, and it assumes that each player will come close to producing as he has over the previous three seasons. In other words, it pretty much plans on an absolute best case scenario. The only potential wild card is Domonic Brown, who has hit .236/.315/.388 in two major league stints but certainly has the potential for more.
In fact, if everything remains as it is, the Phillies formula for offense in 2013 will essentially be the hope that young players like Brown, Ruf and Revere take huge steps forward while veterans like Utley, Rollins, Young and Howard remain healthy and stave off any precipitous decline in production (like the one that Young experienced last year).
- Good luck. Now, try to convince the hardheaded, soft-hearted loser Manuel. You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.
- I still think Utley should be your lead off man. He consistently gets on base, works the pitchers, doesn't really have much power any more, and I'd argue he is one of the best base runners in the history of the game, when you consider going from 1st to 3rd on a single, scoring from 1st on a double, breaking up double plays, and he is always a threat to steal and is insanely efficient. He has 25 steals vs. 1 caught stealing the last two injury plagued seasons. Pete Rose used to get the games started off right by working pitchers, fouling off pitches, getting on base, and taking extra bases while not giving up outs on the base paths. Utley can do that just as well. It keeps the pitcher from settling in-- of course Manuel and Amaro have no understanding of this at all and will front load the line up with free swinging outmakers- a pitcher's best friend.
— jtj06 - Here is a sleeper for you- Freddy Galvis continues to improve. In the 2011 Venezuela season, he hit .249 with a .643 OPS and zero HRs. Last year at 22 he showed some promise in the majors hitting a bunch of doubles and knocking in a lot of runs despite hitting .226. This year in Venezuela he is hitting .300 with a .783 OPS and 5 HRs. The guy is a wizard in the field, a smart ballplayer, and has shown continuing, year over year improvement at the plate. The next time Rollins or Utley go on the DL, Freddy will be taking over.— jtj06
- Upon reviewing Ben Revere's career spray chart and realizing that he has yet to hit a fly ball to the warning track and has only one that can be considered close to the warning track, I predict that he will not hit a HR and if he does, it won't be too long before his positive PED results and suspension are announced.— jtj06
- Phillies will lead league in DP;s hit into and strikeouts.Tied for last with Marlins— sammydelphia
- This comment has been deleted.— TruthTeller01
- Agreed. Manuel should have been shown the door after the debacle in 2011. He is outmanaged on a daily/nightly basis.
- @ghost of callison: "Now, do you REALLY think the dufus Manuel will do so? Not a chance in h*ll. You will see Rollins batting lead off so Manuel doesn't have to confront him."
I can't think of any Phillies regulars over the past few years who would have fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever they actually hit, so I don't really understand what this comment is based on.
As for 2013, chances are Revere will probably be the worst hitter on the team overall. It may be interesting, and sometimes exciting, to have a young speedster at the top, on the other hand it will probably mean that the worst hitter gets the most at bats.
Some day, and it's possible it will be as soon as sometime in 2013, Revere MAY become a decidedly better leadoff hitter than Rollins. Until then I am just as happy to leave Rollins there. He will get on base about as much, and while he won't steal as often, he will get himself into scoring position on doubles more often than Revere.— schmenkman - You can't think of a Phillies' regular over the past few years who would have fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever he actually hit? You don't have to go back that far. How about last year? You like stats, so here you go: Pierre was playing regularly last year and he would have been superior to Rollins -- .312 BA for Pierre, .250 for Rollins; .350 OBP for Pierre, .316 for Rollins. 31 SB for Pierre, 30 for Rollins. Those are the stats you look for in a lead off hitter -- NOT home runs. I would bet you right now that Revere will have a better OBP than Rollins next year. He doesn't swing for the fences and he's a slap hitter who will get on base. So, you asked for a better lead off guy and I gave you one who would have been one in Pierre. This year, my bet is that Revere would better serve as the lead off hitter for reasons stated.
- @ghost: ok, Pierre was a semi-regular. Any others?
And you say that coming out of spring training, they should have made Juan Pierre the leadoff hitter. Juan Pierre, who many didn't think should even make the team, and was coming off back-to-back seasons with .657 OPS.
Or should they have made Pierre the leadoff hitter AFTER Rollins started hitting well in May? From early May on, Rollins was the much better hitter overall, and there wasn't much difference in their OBP (.324 vs. .342).
And assuming Pierre wouldn't play every day, you would then shuffle the lineup vs. LHPs, and who would lead off then? And all for what kind of improvement?— schmenkman - No, I said Pierre's body of work over the first half of the season should have been enough to knock Rollins out of the lead off spot. And, Rollins continued his popping up, swinging for the fences, and lackadaisical jaunts to first base throughout the year, surprisingly earning him another trip to Charlie's dog house. I guess even Manuel had to do something about it because Rollins was arrogantly rubbing it in his face, daring him to do something about it. You saw the differences in the stats. This time, they worked against you. As long as Manuel is running the team, Rollins will lead off, even though he should be batting in the 7 hole. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.
- Oh, and in answer to your last question, in that instance, I would have kept Victorino instead of trading him for basically nothing and HE would lead off when Pierre couldn't. Lindblom's no longer here and we could have used another trading chip to get Michael Young. The Victorino trade was another faux pas by the "great" Amaro.
- @ghost, the stats certainly support the argument that there was no compelling reason to move Rollins out of the leadoff spot on the days that Pierre played.
You threw in a bunch of your own issues with Rollins, and that's fine. You're free to have your preference, but I look at the actual performance results and based on the results there is no way that mid-way through the year I would have replace Rollins with Pierre.
And even if they had, for argument's sake, chances are Rollins would have hit 2nd. How much difference is there between Pierre-Rollins and Rollins-Pierre (on the days that Pierre played)?— schmenkman - You saw the difference in the OBP and the BA. What else do you need? Just Rollins' attitude alone (dogging it to first base, etc.) and his propensity to kill rallies with weak pop ups and ground outs should be the reason to relegate him to the 7 or 8 hole in the line up. That is now where he belongs, in my opinion.
- Victorino would have led off, after all the success he had hitting 5th in 2011? Also, Victorino's OBP is about the same as Rollins', and Vic has never hit very well in the leadoff hole (.251/.320/.411).— schmenkman
