Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way.
Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way. I still would not be surprised if the Phillies landed a right-handed power bat like Scott Hairston, but any such player is likely to be a part-time player struggled against right-handed pitching while mashing lefties.
We'll give a deeper review of the Phillies offseason in the coming weeks. For now, though, let's look at how this offense might look, with unproven players starting the season in a rotation in both left and right field (and, frankly, I'm not sure that you can say that Ben Revere is proven in center field either).
I took each player's totals over the last three seasons combined and used those rates to project a 2013 season based on a specific number of plate appearances. Here is what I got, and how those numbers compare to last season's totals.
| Player | PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | SB | CS |
| Darin Ruf | 450 | .305 | .386 | .520 | .906 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 425 | .303 | .387 | .454 | .841 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Howard | 675 | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Utley | 675 | .264 | .366 | .433 | .800 | 19 | 19 | 2 |
| Michael Young | 675 | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 675 | .255 | .324 | .405 | .729 | 18 | 30 | 5 |
| Ben Revere | 675 | .278 | .317 | .323 | .639 | 0 | 47 | 12 |
| Domonic Brown | 450 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Laynce Nix | 300 | .260 | .315 | .444 | .760 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| John Mayberry Jr. | 325 | .257 | .317 | .446 | .763 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Erik Kratz | 300 | .227 | .281 | .431 | .712 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Frandsen | 183 | .299 | .339 | .392 | .731 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| PROJECTED 2013 | 6172 | .263 | .328 | .412 | .741 | 160 | 116 | 30 |
| 2012 TOTALS | 6172 | .255 | .317 | .400 | .716 | 158 | 116 | 23 |
These numbers don't really tell you much of anything except that even in a near-perfect world in which Michael Young, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard stay healthy for an entire season and log 675 plate appearances and Darin Ruf continues to hit at the ridiculous pace that marked his minor league career and Carlos Ruiz makes 425 plate appearances, the numbers still aren't overwhelming. A .741 team OPS would have ranked sixth in the National League last year (the Phillies .716 ranked eighth). The 160 home runs would have ranked seventh. The .328 OBP would have tied for third. The Nationals, for example, finished the season with a .261/.322/.428 battling line and 194 home runs, in addition to boasting the best pitching staff in the league.
Again, these numbers are assuming everybody stays healthy, and it assumes that each player will come close to producing as he has over the previous three seasons. In other words, it pretty much plans on an absolute best case scenario. The only potential wild card is Domonic Brown, who has hit .236/.315/.388 in two major league stints but certainly has the potential for more.
In fact, if everything remains as it is, the Phillies formula for offense in 2013 will essentially be the hope that young players like Brown, Ruf and Revere take huge steps forward while veterans like Utley, Rollins, Young and Howard remain healthy and stave off any precipitous decline in production (like the one that Young experienced last year).
- Yes. That's the way I see it. Attitude is contagious and Victorino was a spark plug and well liked in the dugout. He never dogged it to first base. He didn't flagrantly flaunt a negative attitude by showing up his manager. In my opinion, it is all B.S. at this point in Rollins career saying that "as Rollins goes, so goes the Phillies". Actually, that statement is now somewhat accurate, but it is no longer a positive because as Rollins' output continually regresses, so has the Phillies' performance.
@ghost, I don't know if it's just that your expectations are just much higher for Rollins, but your impressions are wrong:
"propensity to kill rallies with weak pop ups and ground outs"
Rollins hit a grounder or popped up in 36% of his plate appearances in 2012
Pierre hit a grounder or popped up 45% of his plate appearances in 2012
But maybe you want to throw strikeouts in there too, since Rollins K's more:
Rollins hit a grounder, popped up, or K'd 50% of the time
Pierre hit a grounder, popped up, or K's 51% of the time
Pierre had a higher average, but Rollins walked a lot more, stole 30 bases, and also got himself into scoring position with extra base hits.
If you want to link to the stats, let me know.— schmenkman- Thanks anyway. You and I have a different opinion and, apparently, place a different value on attitude and human nature. That's fine. If we all agreed about everything, this would be a boring world. I made my point and my opinion remains as it is. I respect your opinion. However, the fact remains that Pierre's OBP, BA, and SB were better than Rollins last year and I (and a good majority of the fan base) grew tired of the continual rally-killing pop ups and weak ground outs, the smiles in the dugout after failure, and the "in your face" dogging to first base by one Mr. Rollins, all to the chagrin of his manager and the fan base. That's where I'm coming from and where my opinion will remain.
- I really like Victorino, but he was not traded for "basically nothing". They traded two months of a player they apparently had little interest in signing to a big contract, for Lindblom plus a very good young pitcher named Ethan Martin who is now either a top 5 or top 10 prospect for the Phillies, depending on who you ask. It was a good trade, actually.— schmenkman
- Well, we're going to have to agree to disagree once again, my friend. Lindblom was a mistake. A fly ball pitcher in this ball park is a disaster waiting to happen. And Martin is projected thusly: "The hard-throwing right-hander has swing-and-miss stuff, but his control has been erratic with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 112-to-61 over 118 innings. The 23-year-old has yet to reach the Triple-A level in three-plus professional seasons so he might not have a quick ascension to the majors." So, who knows how long we'll have to wait until that fruit ripens?
- ok ghost, I am going to try to get the last word in.
For all the talk about "rally killing" etc., Rollins hit...
.277/.364/.545 (.908 OPS) with runners in scoring position
.262/.368/.523 (.891 OPS) with RISP and two outs
.368/.397/.585 (.981 OPS) in high leverage situations— schmenkman - Good posts--reality is there is plenty or upside and downside. We just might find a couple of young stars who can be the next Utley and Howard. If not, we trade away the farm system. I'm hoping we see some young stars in the making this year. Rube please give them the chance.— Barneyboy
- Utley's a better lead-off hitter than Rollins. I think Schmenkman just knee jerk rallies behind the fading Rollins. We can all agree that Rollins hit .250 with a .316 OBP and that he doesn't see many pitchers per appearance. So, Schmenkman starts of by arguing Rollins is the best lead off hitter, but then starts arguing his great numbers when he isn't leading off-- which infers that he is even worse than .250/.316 when leading off.— jtj10
- jtj -- I never said Utley wasn't a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. The question was what regular over the past few years would have fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever they hit, and I would rather have had Utley hitting 3rd. If his power continues to decline, that may well change.
And are you talking about leading off an inning, specifically, in your last sentence? He hit .264/.321/.436 (.757 OPS) when leading off an ining.— schmenkman - I don't see how the Phillies can compete with minor leaguers in 2 outfield positions . Dominic Brown has shown no signs he can hit major league pitching Lance Nix gets hurt all the time John Mayberry only hits lefthanders Darren Ruf is a double A player It doesn't make sense to stand pat— coolcomic
