Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way.
Is the Phillies offense good enough right now? A rough projection
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
As you may have read elsewhere on Philly.com yesterday, Ruben Amaro Jr. thinks that his offseason work is likely complete. Given the options remaining on the free agent market, you can't blame him for feeling that way. I still would not be surprised if the Phillies landed a right-handed power bat like Scott Hairston, but any such player is likely to be a part-time player struggled against right-handed pitching while mashing lefties.
We'll give a deeper review of the Phillies offseason in the coming weeks. For now, though, let's look at how this offense might look, with unproven players starting the season in a rotation in both left and right field (and, frankly, I'm not sure that you can say that Ben Revere is proven in center field either).
I took each player's totals over the last three seasons combined and used those rates to project a 2013 season based on a specific number of plate appearances. Here is what I got, and how those numbers compare to last season's totals.
| Player | PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | SB | CS |
| Darin Ruf | 450 | .305 | .386 | .520 | .906 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 425 | .303 | .387 | .454 | .841 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Howard | 675 | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Utley | 675 | .264 | .366 | .433 | .800 | 19 | 19 | 2 |
| Michael Young | 675 | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 675 | .255 | .324 | .405 | .729 | 18 | 30 | 5 |
| Ben Revere | 675 | .278 | .317 | .323 | .639 | 0 | 47 | 12 |
| Domonic Brown | 450 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Laynce Nix | 300 | .260 | .315 | .444 | .760 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| John Mayberry Jr. | 325 | .257 | .317 | .446 | .763 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Erik Kratz | 300 | .227 | .281 | .431 | .712 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Frandsen | 183 | .299 | .339 | .392 | .731 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| PROJECTED 2013 | 6172 | .263 | .328 | .412 | .741 | 160 | 116 | 30 |
| 2012 TOTALS | 6172 | .255 | .317 | .400 | .716 | 158 | 116 | 23 |
These numbers don't really tell you much of anything except that even in a near-perfect world in which Michael Young, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard stay healthy for an entire season and log 675 plate appearances and Darin Ruf continues to hit at the ridiculous pace that marked his minor league career and Carlos Ruiz makes 425 plate appearances, the numbers still aren't overwhelming. A .741 team OPS would have ranked sixth in the National League last year (the Phillies .716 ranked eighth). The 160 home runs would have ranked seventh. The .328 OBP would have tied for third. The Nationals, for example, finished the season with a .261/.322/.428 battling line and 194 home runs, in addition to boasting the best pitching staff in the league.
Again, these numbers are assuming everybody stays healthy, and it assumes that each player will come close to producing as he has over the previous three seasons. In other words, it pretty much plans on an absolute best case scenario. The only potential wild card is Domonic Brown, who has hit .236/.315/.388 in two major league stints but certainly has the potential for more.
In fact, if everything remains as it is, the Phillies formula for offense in 2013 will essentially be the hope that young players like Brown, Ruf and Revere take huge steps forward while veterans like Utley, Rollins, Young and Howard remain healthy and stave off any precipitous decline in production (like the one that Young experienced last year).
- Personally, I'm VERY concerned that all the innings has finally caught up with Doc. This is ANOTHER reason why Amaro should NEVER have given up a proven Worley and replace him with a AAA pitcher in Lannan, in my opinion.
Again, unless I'm missing something, the chart leaves out 1 hitter. It lists 12. We won't carry 13 pitchers, will we? I mean, Galvis' numbers won't be great -- he may hurt in OPS, OBP and BA -- but shouldn't he be on there?— eman- The answer is NO. They are old and will be irrelevant before school ends. Howard ,Utley,and Rollins not the same and those injuries to the first two will make them average at best. Howard strikes out too much and who really knows about Utleys knees .The people brought in are not going to make the NL East shiver. Halladay is a huge key as he looks like he may be on the downside. Rube dropped the ball in the off season and that outfield group is a error waiting to happen.— d1955h
- As long as Amaro continues as GM and stocks the team with has-beens and over the hill retreads, and Manuel remains in the dugout mismanaging the lineup, pitching staff, and relievers, this team is looking at another disappointing season.
- On one hand I don't mind opening up the corner spots to competition, seeing if you catch lightning in a bottle with one of the young guys, and if not they should have the flexibility to swing a deal at the trade deadline.
On the other hand, swinging deals at the trade deadline has left the organization in the middling state it's in now with aging veterans and few if any real promising prospects.
The thing that makes it tough for fans to anty up behind this team is the fact that the manager and GM BOTH flat-out said this winter they needed to upgrade the outfield options with an impact bat because the current options were not good enough. I'm curious, what's the company line now? "Oh sorry, we've spent WAY too much money on past contracts that we couldn't offer Josh Hamilton a real contract to actually consider"?? "Oh and btw we hope you don't mind the increased ticket prices" - The Phillies have to get younger, so young players need the opportunity to have their time in the sun. Health is a problem for a bunch of player, so give them time off in the first half of the season and save them for the stretch run. The Phillies want to win now but they must find out about their future. They are only going to go as far as their Veterans take them. Give the Veterans who need it a day off a week because it may save the season.— jpelle36
- I'd be happy if the Phillies actually produce those numbers. My fear is, for example, Howard hits .225, with 18 HRs and 193 SOs.— 4thand10
- So would I. If I was a betting man, I would bet that your Howard prediction is pretty accurate. Maybe a few more home runs if he stays healthy, but the SOs will be right up there. Pitchers know how to get him out and he has absolutely NO discipline at the plate. NONE.
- Ruz hitting .303 now that he is off the juice???— sonny_boy_k
- Personally, I don't see the amphetamines as "performance enhancing", no more than the "greenies" (same thing) enhanced the performance of the players in the 60s/70s. It doesn't build muscle or cause a person to become stronger. It just keeps them awake. That said, I think Carlos' BA and performance will continue near the same level as last year, as long as pitchers don't find a weakness they can exploit.
- i'm just afraid that after this season a lot of us are going to sound like warbiscuit. really, fellas, we ain't got diddily.— bubba church & granny hamner
- So in other words, you're going to be even worse than you were last year...just like I've been saying for the past year and a half! I gotta hand it to you, Cheese, this is a pretty honest analysis for the ultimate #fanboibeatwriter. I think Cheese is gwowin' up right before our very eyes!— Curlydubs
- Revere should bat lead off, followed by Young, Utley, Howard, Ruf (Ruiz when he returns), Rollins, Ruf, Brown, Kratz (until Ruiz returns). This line up, assuming they hit average numbers, will score plenty of runs. Ruf's HR estimates are low, while Young and Kratz HR numbers are high.— drhoffman
- Yes. Absolutely agree. Now, do you REALLY think the dufus Manuel will do so? Not a chance in h*ll. You will see Rollins batting lead off so Manuel doesn't have to confront him. Manuel is a push over at the team's expense and that's why his players love playing for him.
- flip Utley to the two hole and bat Young third or fifth, moving Jimmy into the three hole. don't have a lot of hope that utley will return to previous form. now many just a doubles hitter.
