Introducing. . .Danys Baez
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Introducing. . .Danys Baez
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Ruben Amaro Jr. has reminded us plenty of times this season that there is no giant pit of loose bills at Citizens Bank Park where he can do the Scrooge McDuck backstroke during his lunch hour. He operates in the real world, where there are payroll budgets and spending limits, kind of like you and your beer money, only with a lot more zeros. Which brings us to an old adage that will be very much in play once spring training starts: at some point, the guys getting paid will have to earn their money.
We bring this up in relation to the Phillies' bullpen, which sometime this week -- perhaps today -- will receive what might be its lone addition of the 2009-10 offseason in the form of veteran righthander Danys Baez. Even if the Phillies do add another arm - and I'd be surprised if they don't - it is pretty clear that any drastic improvement over a mediocre 2009 campaign will have to come internally. Baez could prove to be a solid addition - in fact, as we'll detail later, RAJ and Co. seem to have made the best out of a bad situation - but you'd have to be Anthony Robbins to expect the 32-year-old Cuban to equal the 2.52 ERA and 9.4 K/9 posted by Chan Ho Park1, whom he is effectively replacing and who was the Phillies' top target to fill the role that Baez now inherits. The Phillies had hoped to ease some pressure on the back end of the bullpen by signing one of the bigger names on the market. But two of those "names" - the Braves' Rafael Soriano and the Rockies' Rafael Betancourt - accepted arbitration, and two others signed contracts with more generous clubs (again, more on that below). Park, meanwhile, will apparently look for either more money or a better opportunity to start from somebody else. Which leaves the Phillies with Baez and whatever January bargain that I suspect they will be able to land closer to spring training.
In other words, it leaves them needing to receive production out of Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson that is more commesurate with the combined $20 million in salary that they will be making. In an ideal world, the Phillies would have been able to land somebody like Soriano or lefty Mike Gonzalez, a dynamic arm with top-shelf stuff that could replaceany one of their top three relievers should they falter. But any team operating under a hard budget number will find it difficult to fit four back-of-the-bullpen salaries into a $140 million payroll. Which means two things: 1) Settling for a low-risk, decent-reward guy like Baez, who last year posted a 4.02 ERA in his first year back from elbow surgery but once-upon-a-time was a solid closer who saved 71 games in 2004-05; and 2) Counting on your incumbents to improve.
Counting on a closer who posted a 7.21 ERA and blew 11 saves and a lefty set-up man who is coming off of elbow surgery might not be an ideal situation for a team that ranked in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA last season, but given the contracts doled out to relievers this offseason, it was the smartest. Signing Fernando Rodney to a two-year, $11 million deal or Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15 million deal not only carried the risk of backfiring this season, but of limiting their ability to add another arm at the trade deadline or next offseason.
1. Now is probably a good time to pause and honor the year that was the Chan Ho Park era. Favorite Chan Ho Park moment? It came in spring training, near the end of a heated battle between the Park, the Pride of South Korea, and J.A. Happ, the Pride of Spring Valley, Ill., J.A. Happ. Since signing with the Phillies in the offseason, Park had made little secret of his desire to start, even making the competition a matter of national pride, saying all of his fans in Korea could follow him easier when they knew when, exactly, he would be pitching. But toward the end of spring training, it looked like J.A. Happ was going to win the fifth spot in the rotation. So, one afternoon, a reporter asked Park how he would react if the Phillies chose to go with Happ. Park turned serious.
"I don't know, let's see," he said, his tone of voice eerily reminiscent to the way John Hinkley's would have sounded had a reporter asked him how he would react if Jodie Foster spurned his advances. "Wait, wait, wait. . .Sometimes, I'm crazy."
So when Charlie Manuel named Park the starter a short time later, you couldn't help but think he did so partly out of concerns for his personal safety. Turns out, Park just has a dry - or, depending on your perspective, odd - sense of humor that occasionally gets Lost in Translation. And when he lost his job in the rotation in mid-May, he proceded to become an integral part of the bullpen.
^
So, who is Danys Baez? And why might he have been better option than Lyon or Rodney?
First, throw Lyon out of the equation. The Phillies had interest in him, but the righthander's three-year deal with the Astros has been universally panned. Regardless of how well he might have fit in Philly, his eventual pricetag was a whopper that any team would have been wise to reject.
Now, let's take a look at Baez's overall numbers from last season compared with Rodney's:
Rodney: 1.467 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 1.0 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9, 75.2 IP, 73 APP
Baez: 1.130 WHIP, 4.02 ERA, 1.0 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 SO/9, 71.2 IP, 59 APP
Now, let's take a look at their numbers in save situations:
Rodney: 39 G, .221 BAA, .308 OBP, .658 OPS, 2.79 ERA
Baez: 17G, .185 BAA, .254 OBP, .588 OPS, 3.45 ERA
So Rodney brings with him a bigger arm and more closing experience. Baez, meanwhile, allowed far fewer walks, hits and - overall - earned runs. Both have excellent groundball rates. Rodney has a better recent track record, having thrown at least 40 innings in each of the last five seasons, while Baez struggled mightily in 2007 (6.44 ERA) and then missed all of 2008 with elbow surgery.
Baez has plenty of caveats. He pitched on back-to-back days just five times last season, allowing two runs in 5.1 innings in those appearances (Park pitched on back-to-back days five times in 37 apeparances). Lefties have a career .272 AVG, .352 OBP and .766 OPS against him (.248 AVG, .707 OPS in 2009), compared with .213/.300/.641 from righties. He allowed at least one run in 20 of his 59 appearances (Rodney allowed at least one run in 22 of 79 appearances; Park allowed at least one run in 10 of 37 appearances)
His home/away splits in 2009 were drastic:
Home: 1.73 ERA, .196 avg, .236 OBP, .268 SLG, .504 OPS
Away: 7.20 ERA, .257 avg, .358 OBP, .442 SLG, .801 OPS
And in his one appearance at Citizens Bank Park last season, he allowed a three-run home run to Ryan Howard and finished being charged with one earned run in two thirds of an inning.
Some other things to consider that are open for interpretation:
- Baez was used by the Orioles mostly in multiple innings and pre-8th innings for the first four months of the season, but over the last two months, after George Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, was used largely as a set-up man in the eighth inning. In his last 20 appearances, mostly as a set-up man, he posted a 3.32 ERA, .214 BAA, .273 OBP, .573 OPS.
- Baez allowed five runs while recording just one out at Florida on June 23. Take that outing out of the equation and his road ERA is 5.86
- Baez allowed 11 runs in 13.2 innings against the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies last season. Seven of those runs were allowed on the road.
- Baez turned 32 on Sept. 10. Rodney turns 33 in March.
- From 2001-06, in the six seasons prior to his 2007 elbow surgery, Baez posted a 3.79 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, 3.7 BB/8 and 7.1 SO/9.
Nice analysis as always, Murph. I'm still at a bit of a loss as to why the Chan Ho door was slammed shut....was it shut by the Phillies? Or did Park do so by demanding a significant upgrade to his contract ($ and/or length)or did he really want the opportunity to start again? Its also odd because i read several times that Park liked it here & felt more like a part of the team than he had elsewhere....I'd think at this stage of his career that would be an important factor, maybe even trumping a role as a 4th-5th starter on a lousy team.— 1008- My guess is that Mr. Park, Chung Ho wanted more than 3M a year. He wanted to be a starter. The Korean Internet is stated that he will sign with the Giants although I do not see him starting for them. He does not have many offers. It is either the Giants or the Korean League.— jpelle36
- Mike Gonzalez, They should've forgotten all those other guys and gotten this guy. Then bring up the Flying Bastardos and the Mathieson's and Carpenter's. You are correct Gonzalez would've been good insurance if Brad Lidge falters.— Phillyexp
- There is a Korean Internet?— WentWet
Comment removed.
It really is a shame that something could'nt have been worked out with Chan Ho... Vital piece of the bullpen gone... We've gained very little experience soo far in the pitching department and I would definitely be surprised if another arm was not added. GREAT ARTICLE MURPH!!!— JLingle3- Comment removed.
- Park either wanted another chance to start, or a substantial raise over his 2009 salary, or both. He will be 37 in June and hasn't shown consistent starter ability since, well, 2001. I expect that a West Coast team might give him a shot to start, if only for the Pacific Rim television ratings, but I think the Phils were wise to let him leave.— paolibulldog
- reclinergm had a similar article to this on Baez - with more info as to what kind of pitches he throws, velocity, effectiveness, etc... http://www.reclinergm.com/what-are-we-getting-in-danys-baez/— psalveso
- FWIW Todd Zolecki reported on MLB.com that Park turned down the Phils' December offer of a 1-year, $3M deal.— paolibulldog
- Beimel? Valverde?— Ed3
- Park should come back for one more year. He was great in his role. He needs to stop denying that.— NickFromGermantown
- I'm not impressed with Baez but it is this or nothing. I still think that Scott Matheison or Bastardo could do almost as well for a lot cheaper. We'll see if they get that chance in spring training.— MattPSU
- finally, some baseball talk— phairmount
- Football season is over, and Hockey is going to be over pretty soon. Park wanted to start when he was back in L.A., which is why he came here for the chance. The Phils probably seen enough to know he won't be the fifth.— Danno
- Open question to anybody that can answer it: Is there any possibility of STILL going after Chan Ho? I was VERY disappointed with his five straight losses as a starter.(But I DO think he EARNED his #5 starting slot in Spring Training.) And I thought he would be a poison pill when he was put back in the 'pen.But after a shaky first outing, he turned out to be a jaw-dropping TREASURE the rest of the year! I certainly hope there is a shot to still getting him.— TBear
- Talking about the 5 position: please tell Jaime to retire or try to get him to be the roving pitching coach for the minors. He cannot pitch 3 innings anymore without getting bombed. Kyle might do it but Joel Pinero would would better than both together if he would sign here.— KGKoons
- Who cares? There is little to nothing the Phils can do to repair the damage done by giving away Cliff Lee for nothing. Fire Ruben Amaro NOW!
Being philly born/raised and now living near baltimore; i get stuck with a lot of O's and Nats games. I'll offer my scouting services for free. The O's and Nats both finished last! We don't want any of their pitchers! They should be trolling our roster...— burholme- Moyer will be in the bullpen when everything is done.RAJ should sign CHIN MING WANG and give him a chance for the 5th starter.— Phillies08
- danno- hockey is only half way through the season. football is now more exciting than ever being the post season.. wtf are you talking about ?— Will.i.Am
- I also noted that the most impressive stat for Baez was his weight. Maybe Amaro plans to trade him to the Eagles. So far there hasn't been much overall improvement to the pitching squad which came down to Lee and an out of shape Pedro at playoff time. Nor has there been any bench improvement.— atp2007
- Comment removed.
- The Phils should have given Park what he wanted - another chance to start. They should have made him the 5th starter of record for the start of the 2010 season, and allowed his performance dictate the next move. After a few starts, Park would have probably agreed that his starter days were over, and returned to the bullpen where he would have had another strong year. I don't think Moyer would be in a position to disagree with such a move because, after his abdominal and orthopedic surgeries, Moyer may be relegated to bullpen duty from the very start of the season. Moyer starting may be out of the question from the get-go. That leaves the Phils with a likely need for a 5th starter. To be sure, there are plenty of decent free agent starters still looking for a job. Most of them appear to be short-term solutions for the Phils. For my money, I'd trade for the affordable, underrated and available Zach Duke of the Pirates.
- This bullpen is going to be better than expected because one or two of the young guys will come through. It will be refreshing to have young gun coming out of the pen instead of another grizzled vet.— wooderice
- The Phillies have already tipped their hand. This is pretty much it for this offseason in terms of acquisitions. That of course never counts out signing some marginal players to non-guaranteed or minor league deals. Unless he is physically unable to play, Moyer will be the 5th starter, if he is unable to play it will be Kendrick. The biggest question will be which players are going to be ready to start the season i.e. Lidge and Romero. Guys like Baez fall off trees. But I have read that G.M.'s often look for guys coming off injuries because their arms are lightly pitched over the previous year or two. Barring injuries, I like the Phillies to win the East. I also like the idea of batting Polanco second, Victorino sixth, and Ibanez seventh. Victorino then becomes your second leadoff hitter to keep innings alive with extended rallies.— jrquixote
- So, statistical overkill aside, we're basically left with no real closer in 2010 and we're gambling the house on a resurgent Lidge and a retread named Baez. By trading Lee, who between himself and Halladay would probably pitch deep into games and marginalized BP problems, the Phillies have now effectively put the BP back on the front burner with no foreseeable solution other than Lidge returning to form. That is a huge gamble.— Manor2009
- living on the other side of the planet, i get all my phillies stuff second and third hand. what i don't understand, not a whit, is the money thing. sell out the last, what?, final 60 games, raise ticket prices, and they had to pawn off the utterly amazing cliff lee for a bucket of minor league slop, won't go after figgins, possibly the most exciting player in baseball, and make no effort to retain park coz he (allegedly) wanted more than one-quarter what lidge is getting. explain, please.— kiwi
- amazing to have Joan's grandson pitch for the Phils— riverhealer
- Book em Danno.— P Even
- Manor, agree on Lee. I still have not heard an answer as to why not Lee for 1 year at 9 mill and 2 draft choices after he leaves for free agency versus the 3 prospects from Seattle. They trade Lee at a bargain of 9 mill for 1 year for 1 more prospect. Unbe lee vible!— P Even
- He'll bring a certain Latin flavor to the bullpen,and all around professional averageness.— MJOLLNIR HAMMER
- Ruben has made some good moves...but it looks like he has no tolerance for bending to players who are not absolutely essential...even if he loses in the long run. Park wants to start, but...I think Amaro took a hard line with him, and we get worse as a result. This guy is no better than Condrey let alone Park, but we needed somebody and he was all that was left.— BySaam
- What about a Mike MacDougal? And a 5th starter please tell me we aren't settling with Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick that would be just sickening.— Bob Crogan
- Looks like 3 yards and a cloud of dust for our 5th Starter and Middle Relief...Hey wait a minute,the owners said we were broke,that's why we traded Lee with a year left on his laughable,for a Cy Young winner,9 Mil. contract.How can we sign anyone being as broke as we are?— MJOLLNIR HAMMER
- "J.A. Happ, the Pride of Spring Valley, Ill., J.A. Happ" murph channeling his inner bob sheppard but honestly, good job, murph. definitely the most consistently informative and thorough phillies writer.— bitlrc
- MURPH IS TO PHILLY.COM,WHAT JEFF BECK WAS TO THE FENDER TELECASTER,HE MAKES IT LIVE!!!— MJOLLNIR HAMMER
- Am I the only one who hasn't seen an amount for Baez? How much did he take Amaro for? If it is more than a bucket of balls and couple bats he was robbed.
- Oh wait...I'm sure it was just a 'baseball decision' so it is OK regardless.
- relief corps would not be as much of a concern if we kept lee along with halladay. salary room and prospects could have been gathered by moving someone other than lee. amaro was just too narrow-minded to see that moving rollins or one of the starting outfielders was also a solution to salary/prospect concerns from the halladay deal. we'll pay for amaro's decision this year, you watch.— zwarte piet
- relief corps would not be as much of a concern if we kept lee along with halladay. salary room and prospects could have been gathered by moving someone other than lee. amaro was just too narrow-minded to see that moving rollins or one of the starting outfielders was also a solution to salary/prospect concerns from the halladay deal. we'll pay for amaro's decision this year, you watch.— zwarte piet
- One thing that struck me: you note that the Phillies are operating under a hard cap of $140 million; David Montgomery has insisted the cap is not firm if a player is out there who can help the club. Which is it??— chuckw
- Chan Ho is a major loss to this team. The late relief for this team is too iffy. Im still amazed at the comfort people have with ryan madson. What exactly does he do each and every year but tease us with 3 games out of ten where he blows people away with his electric stuff, only to have us be fooled into believing that he has finally found his career groove, only to eventually let us all down in the most pressure filled moments. He had opportunity after opportunity to steal bradley's closer job and he wet his pants every chance he got. Every year he has a mid-3's era and thats just not good enough for someone with his stuff. Set-up guys should be sub-2 era guys with great stuff. Ryan has the talent, just not the stomach for it. Romero gave everyone a near perfect 2008 but I think lasy year he showed exactly what Tito Francona was saying as to why boston had to let him go. He's just too wild too often to be counted on. Thats what he looked like last year. I just have a feeling that the phils are going to lose alot of games again when leading after 7 innings. This team cant take for granted that the braves and mets will not catch up eventually. Dont forget. as much as we like to mock the mets for their collapses, the phillies have barely beaten them out 2 of the last 3 years. Also, check out the rotation for the braves. Its better than the phillies.— sjmatt99
- Amaro has been very quiet in his search for a 5th starter. I sure would like to see us get one rather than have a competition between Moyer and Kendrick for that spot. Moyer at 47, coming off abdominal surgery is a great risk. Wouldn't it be great if he just retired? Kendrick, to me is better served in a Clay Condrey type role of long relief and mop up duties. The Braves and Mets will be tougher tests this year so we need a solid 5th starter. Would gladly welcome Pedro back if they can agree on money.— bradco
- IT'S ALL RELATIVE,THE POINT BEING THE WEAR AND TEAR A HORSE LIKE LEE SAVES YOUR BULLPEN GOING 7+ SOLID INNINGS A GAME COMPARED TO 5 0R SO SHAKY INNINGS BLANTON,MOYER,OR WHOEVER GIVE UP,WILL BEGIN TO TAKE IT'S TOLL ON ARMS FROM THE BULLPEN SOONER THEN YOU THINK.IT WILL HAVE A DOMINO EFFECT ON THE PITCHING STAFF WITHOUT LEE.— MJOLLNIR HAMMER
- Baez will be GREAT! That is, until he gets injured and out for the season...— NickFotiu4HOF
- David, do me a favor and report what Fernando Rodney was offered and what Mike Gonzalez accepted from the Orioles? ..... Hey, what do you know, they were both 2/$12 million ..... Then, explain why the Phillies did not extend Gonzalez the exact same deal they offered Rodney.— PhightinPhil
- Comment removed.
- It is curious why the beat writers feel compelled to justify deals instead of just reporting them. Murph did his homework,statistically speaking. Ruben "Little Ed" Amaro, Jr.'s mentor and godfather to his children almost ruined the market for middle relievers by paying Brandon Lyon 3 yrs/$15m. Evidently the Phillies set a dollar amount they were willing to pay and Baez accepted that amount. That's why he is a Phillie today. In their opinion, Baez was the best reliever willing to work for their beer budget. That's the long and the short of it. To try to say Baez is "better" than Kiko Calero or the other handful of relievers is spin. Hopefully Baez will do a good job. He is an experienced reliever, though an underperformer for most of his career.— jrquixote
- So good to be reading about baseball after enduring the Eagles embarrassment.— Disco Dave
- Park wants to start. He's not a starter and will not start here. No more talk about Park. Matheison should take over the Condrey role. Lidge will not have a 7 era next here so that in itself will be a major improvment. Romero comes back. With an improved Lidge, Baez and returning Romero the bullpen will be fine. The key to the bullpen and the success of the team next here is Hamels. Is anyone confident the California kid can dominate again???— Wheelermustgo
- If "ifs and buts" were candies and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. A lot of ifs and buts with Phils 2010 bullpen. Will Lidge return to form? Will Romero get healthy? Will 1-2 Phils minor leaguers step up and fill BP roles? Let's hope it's a Merry October.— yardbyrd
- Rubie missed the boat in not pursing the ChanHo. Chan is also one of the few ho's not shupted by Tiger.— mick314
- Nice analysis Murph! Go Phils! Maybe Smoltzie will get smart and join a winner.— PhilliesPhorever
- Hey WentWet...fyi...South Korea has just about the best internet and broadband network in the world. Internet and cellphone service in Europe and parts of Asia make ours in the US look like we're in the stone ages.— jsparkmd
- Talk is Ruben is giving Baez a 2 year contract. All the other teams are giving out 1 year contracts to marginal players but not Ruben. Every signing that Amaro is making, except Castro, is for at least 2 years. You can't tell me that we couldn't have got Schneider, Gload or now Baez for a 1 year contract. If any of these guys bomb we are stuck with them for another year. I would think these guys would be eager to sign with a championship caliber team for 1 year.— bigtbone
- I still expect Park to be in a Phillies uniform in 2010. I don't think any team is going to sign him to a high-price deal to be a starter considering the way he faltered in Philly in that role. Maybe a losing team hard up for a starter might pull the trigger, but you'd figure at his age, Park would want a ring particularly after being in the World Series last year. And once spring training starts, and the Phils see how much more bullpen help they need, RAJ and Co. might open the wallet a little wider for Park to ease the sting of not being a starter. Once Park got to the 'Pen last season he proved that he was worth the money.— phillyfandc
- I still expect Park to be in a Phillies uniform in 2010. I don't think any team is going to sign him to a high-price deal to be a starter considering the way he faltered in Philly in that role. Maybe a losing team hard up for a starter might pull the trigger, but you'd figure at his age, Park would want a ring particularly after being in the World Series last year. And once spring training starts, and the Phils see how much more bullpen help they need, RAJ and Co. might open the wallet a little wider for Park to ease the sting of not being a starter. Once Park got to the 'Pen last season he proved that he was worth the money.— phillyfandc
- Good article as usual, Murph. But you left out one thing: How the hell do we say this guy's name?— schmittergut
- Baez is better than Condrey. Who is going to replace Chan Park? Who is going to replace Eyre? The signing was acceptable. The bullpen still needs improvement. The bull pen (like most teams) is not as good as two years ago. I believe you can NOT win with what they have. That's just my opinion. The bull pen is still weak. Considering the medical concerns and history of inconsistency this team has had in the past year(plus) they do NOT have a quality lights out relief pitcher. They are all fair to good. No top notch lights out reliever. That's my opinion.
- I'm sure half these posters who are pineing for Chan Ho were the same ones last winter that were saying, "Chan Ho Park, WTF!" And next winter when Danys has a decent year will be saying "At least we have Baez locked up"— Wheel
- Nice analysis? This is a huge, unwieldy chore to read. And, Murphy, find an editor -- or have they all "retired"? Commesurate? Replaceany? In relation to? Hey, I'm older than you are and I know how to use Spellcheck. Details matter in your line of work. Step it up.— eman
- eman ..... Apparently, you have never worked for a newspaper ..... For your information, blogs do not typically require editors to proofread what's written before it appears online ..... And, considering how many words Murphy wrote for this installment, I'm willing to give him a pass ..... Now, when are you going to have that cure for cancer?— PhightinPhil
- Does Amaro give up too quickly meaning Lee and Park. Idont think there will be many clamoring for Park as a starter. Baez may surprise and is decent but Park was very good in the pen. Still have trouble getting past the Lee trade. Unless Lee was demanding 5 or more years we should have signed him. Why do people think Werth will be gone after 2010? Jayson is in a good situation. Phills face more lefties than any team and he says he' happy here.— Don w
- Don w ..... Whether Lee wanted one year, five years or 10 should not have mattered for 2010 ..... He was signed through next season ..... Considering this organization has won a grand total of two championships in 128 years, I don't know why so many fans (not you, necessarily) want to look two, three, four years into the future ..... Worry about 2011 and beyond after 2010 ..... If the Phillies had chosen to retain Lee, they would have had, arguably, the best 1-2 starters in their history ..... That's a long time ..... As any Phillie fan knows, success with this team has been fleeting ..... So, instead of talking about what may be the best starting pitching the Phillies have ever fielded, the news of the day is yet another two-year deal for a middle reliever with a 4.04 career ERA .....— PhightinPhil
- Don w ..... Whether Lee wanted one year, five years or 10 should not have mattered for 2010 ..... He was signed through next season ..... Considering this organization has won a grand total of two championships in 128 years, I don't know why so many fans (not you, necessarily) want to look two, three, four years into the future ..... Worry about 2011 and beyond after 2010 ..... If the Phillies had chosen to retain Lee, they would have had, arguably, the best 1-2 starters in their history ..... That's a long time ..... As any Phillie fan knows, success with this team has been fleeting ..... So, instead of talking about two former Cy Young winners at the top of the Phillies rotation, the news of the day is yet another two-year deal, this time for a middle reliever with a 4.04 career ERA.— PhightinPhil
- "So Rodney brings with him a bigger arm and more closing experience." How do you figure that? Baez - 114 career saves, Rodney - 70 career saves. Baez has significantly more closing experience.— JimG
