If the season started today. . .
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If the season started today. . .
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is the last week of the year, which is generally a time to look back and reminisce. But I'm a forward thinking kind of guy, so I'll leave the "Best of 2009" post to others. Instead, let's look ahead to the regular season, and how the Phillies' roster would look if 2010 started today:
I. Line-up
1. SH Jimmy Rollins SS
2. RH Placido Polanco 3B
3. LH Chase Utley 2B
4. LH Ryan Howard 1B
5. RH Jayson Werth RF
6. SH Shane Victorino CF
7. LH Raul Ibanez LF
8. RH Carlos Ruiz C
The Big Question: Where will Shane Victorino hit?
The speedy center fielder spent most of 2009 hitting at No. 2, but the Phillies signed Placido Polanco largely to provide themselves with a better situational hitter at the top of the order. Charlie Manuel has remained steadfast in using Jimmy Rollins at the leadoff spot, and of the 1,785 at-bats Placido Polanco has logged over the last three seasons, all but 31 have come at No. 2, where he has hit .312 with a .356 OBP. So Polanco seems destined to start the season hitting No. 2.
Although Raul Ibanez spent most of the season hitting at No. 6, logic suggests that Manuel will slide him down to No. 7 to start 2010. Putting Victorino at No. 7 would diminish his ability to use his speed, since he would be on base with the No. 8 hitter and pitcher hitting behind him. A more logical place to hit him would be No. 6, where he has logged the second-most at-bats of his career (250), and has hit .339 with a .392 OBP and .957 OPS while stealing 12-of-14 bases.
This would essentially make Ibanez the three-hole hitter for the second half of the order, putting him two spots behind Jayson Werth's .376 on base percentage (Phillies career) and one spot behind Victorino. Ibanez has only started 62 games in his career at No. 7, but I don't think that is a huge deal.
There is certainly a valid argument to be made that, against left-handed pitchers, Werth (.962 career OPS vs. LHP) should hit clean-up with Howard (.754 career OPS vs. LHP) hitting fifth (Ibanez has a career .760 OPS vs. LHP). But that is a secondary issue.
II. Bench
RH Ben Francisco (outfield)
LH Greg Dobbs (corner infield/outfied)
LH Ross Gload (first base/outfield)
RH Juan Castro (infield)
LH Brian Schneider (catcher)
The Big Question: How will Manuel get his bench players at-bats?
One of the more under-reported aspects of the Phillies' season was the lack of production they received from their bench. Was the lack of production the result of a lack of playing time? Or was the lack of playing time the result of the lack of production? The answer is a little bit of both. If Manuel could do it all over, he might try to get Dobbs more regular action at third base, like he did in 2008 when Dobbs was one of the top pinch-hitters in the game. This did not happen mostly because Pedro Feliz was hot at the plate for much of the first half of the season, leading Manuel to believe that the drop-off in defense he would see with Dobbs in the line-up was not worth the increase in offensive production against left-handed pitchers. But the unknown was how much long-term pinch-hitting production he sacrificed by not getting Dobbs regular at-bats. I expect that to change this season, mostly because Manuel should have more options with Placido Polanco in the fold. The defensive disparity between Polanco and Dobbs might not be as great as it was with Feliz manning the hot corner (Polanco hasn't played third regularly since 2005). In addition, Polanco could get some starts at second base against right-handed pitchers, giving Utley a chance for a breather with Dobbs getting a start at third base against a righty.
Francisco should get plenty of at-bats in left field, where he can give Ibanez, who battled a sports hernia for the better part of the season, an occasional breather. Francisco can also play center and right.
Gload is an interesting case. In an ideal world, he would be a right-handed hitter, giving Manuel an obvious way to get him into the line-up in place of Howard against lefties. This could still be an option, since Gload plays an excellent defensive first base, and is a career .298 hitter against southpaws. That said, Gload's career OPS against lefties is significantly lower than Howard's (.703 vs. .754). He has started 30 games in his career in right field, so he could give Werth a break against righties. But Werth is a much better defensive right fielder.
How Manuel uses Gload will be one of the trickier and more interesting subplots to follow this season. He started 46 games last year for the Marlins, 113 in 2008 and 88 in 2007. So while he is a career .300 pinch-hitter, he is also used to playing fairly regularly. Forty-six starts is the equivalent of roughly two starts per week, or a start every 4-5 games.
III. Rotation
1. RHP Roy Halladay
2. LHP Cole Hamels
3. RHP Joe Blanton
4. LHP J.A. Happ
5. LHP Jamie Moyer
The Big Question: What will happen at No. 5?
While I believe David Montgomery and Ruben Amaro Jr. when they say that they could have fit both Halladay and Cliff Lee into the payroll, I still think the presence of Jamie Moyer and his $8 million salary played into the decision to deal Lee to the Mariners. Maybe it wasn't the over-riding factor - I do believe the Phillies felt like they needed to re-plenish their farm system - but you can't conficne me it didn't play a role. Had the Phillies kept Lee and righthander Joe Blanton, they would have had to give long consideration to releasing Moyer, since he would have entered spring training without a role. That would have meant two things: First, eating his salary. Second, bidding an uncermonious adieu to a well-respected veteran.
So either Blanton or Lee had to go. The Phillies gauged interest in Blanton. But, as might have been expected, no teams were in a position to give up a decent package of prospects for a pitcher due to make at least $7 million in his last year before free agency. Which is why Lee was dealt. The Phillies could have non-tendered Blanton or traded him for next to nothing, but that would have meant both players becoming free agents without the Phillies getting anything to re-stock their farm system. And, it seems to me, the front office felt that the return they could get for Lee from Seattle outweighed the benefit of keeping both while depleting their farm system AND having to eat Moyer's $8 million salary.
But that means the Phillies are likely to enter the season with plenty of uncertainty at the No. 5 spot in the rotation.
The Phillies have said they would like to add some rotation depth. But the pool of players who would provide such depth is dwindling to the point where it is difficult to find a player who might have a fighting chance to fend off either Moyer or righthander Kyle Kendrick in spring training.
Pedro Martinez, Erik Bedard, Joel Piniero, Ben Sheets and Jarrod Washburn are all likely out of their price range (although if the Phillies' plan was to trade Lee for prospects and then use his $9 million salary to sign someone like Bedard or Sheets to a respectable-base, incentive-laden deal, it would make some sense to me).
Jon Garland is likely both out of their price and desireability range.
I personally think hell would freeze over before Vicente Padilla made a return to Philly.
Which leaves the following group of players: Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Tim Redding, Mark Mulder, Eric Milton, Livan Hernandez, Braden Looper, Jose Contreras, D.J. Carrasco and Miguel Batista).
Carrasco, Contreras, Looper, Batista and Smoltz could be feasible additions using the Chan Ho Park starter/reliever plan.
In the end, the Phillies look to be headed to a scenario in which they give Moyer the first crack, followed by Kendrick, at which point they will know if they need to make a Pedro Martinez-type move, or whether they can make it through the end of the season with the cards in their hand.
The bottom of the rotation has been a revolving door of sorts over the last several years. The Phillies made the playoffs in 2007 despite relying on a struggling Adam Eaton. They made the playoffs in 2008 despite relying on a struggling Kendrick. And they made the playoffs last season despite relying on a struggling Moyer.
Once the playoffs start, the No. 5 spot is irrelevant. But depending on how they fill out the rest of their roster and minor league system, an injury or subpar season by any of the Top 4 guys could leave them perilously thin.
Right now, the only two sure things in the rotation are Halladay and Blanton. Like the Phillies, I think Hamels' 2009 struggles will prove to be a blip on a mighty fine career. And I also believe J.A. Happ will prove to be more than a one-year wonder. But until both players prove it in 2010, there will be some uncertainty.
IV. Bullpen
RHP Brad Lidge (closer)
RHP Ryan Madson (set-up)
RHP Chad Durbin (multi innings)
RHP Free agent (7th-8th)
LHP Antonio Bastardo
LHP Sergio Escalona
RHP Kyle Kendrick
The Big Question: Can the unit improve internally?
Before the front office broke for the holiday, they were close to a deal with a veteran reliever that would represent their first bullpen signing of the offseason. I haven't been able to confirm who, exactly, that reliever is. Danys Baez would make a lot of sense. He has closed before and has a decent amount of upside entering his second full season after elbow surgery. Whatever happens, I expect them to be relying on at least one young arm from their farm system. Bastardo has huge upside, and could be the type of epiphany that can turn this bullpen into a formidable unit. Scott Mathieson is another possibility, and I expect the Phillies to take the kid gloves off in spring training and let him prove that he is all the way back from two elbow surgeries and capable of handling a regular workload.
Beyond that, the Phillies will need to count on Lidge on cutting his ERA in half, Durbin being the pitcher they saw in September and October, J.C. Romero getting healthy, and Madson continuing to pitch the way he has the past couple of seasons. If all of that happens, their pursuit of a big-name reliever this offseason will prove to have been unnecesarry.
If Kendrick fails to beat out Moyer for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, I wouldn't be surprised to see him enter the season as a Clay Condrey-esque long man, with Bastardo and Escalona competing to see who remains with the club once J.C. Romero returns from his elbow surgery sometime in the first month of the season. Another free agent addition would turn that into a three-way battle involving Kendrick.
For now, though, this is how the roster sets up.
V. Disabled List
LHP J.C. Romero
It sounds more and more like the Phillies are not expecting Romero to be ready for the start of the regular season, although the club is optimistic that he will not miss more than a month of action.
Great job Murph, I don't think anyone puts more time into his/her blog reports; they are invariably interesting. From my perspective, next season does not boil down to the 5th starter or where Polanco should hit (a pure second man in the lineup, rarely strikes out, can hit behind the runner, a true professional hitter)or where Victorino and Ibanez should hit or even whether Polanco should spell Utley (who needs to play fewer games to stay strong)and Dobbs spell Polanco. The keys to this season are Lidge and the bullpen (and to a lesser degree Hamels). Right now Baseball more than ever is a bullpen-driven game; look at the contracts even middle relievers are getting. With starters averaging six innings per game, the team with the best bullpen shortens the game dramatically. The 7th, 8th, and 9th inning relievers are crucial. No matter how productive an offense, if the late inning relievers and in particular the closer fail, then hitters begin to grind the bats in their hands, knowing they must score early and often and still may lose. The Phils need to bring in another potential closer if at all possible, in case Lidge melts down. Where the trade of Cliff Lee hurts in my perspective is his ability to pitch complete games, much like Halladay. Nothing eases bullpen troubles like starters who go deep into games, preferably complete games. Joe Blanton might be an "inning's eater" but rarely did he go into the 8th inning and generally faded after six innings. Both Happ and Hamels will need to go deep as well. If Moyer is the 5th starter and Blanton the third starter, then the bullpen will get plenty of work.— chuckw- What ever happened to Brett Myers? Haven't heard of him catching on with another team. Why not bring him back in at a discount for the closer/starter competition? He's got more to give than some names bounced around!— teeleeinHbg
Please don't sign Eric Milton--unless the Phils want to pay him to stay home and play pool while he spends 85% of the season on the DL. Just ask the Dodgers. They did it last year and the Reds paid him $26 mil for 3 years to spend over half that time on the DL. Padilla is a horse with a live arm and has an upside even if he's a bit of a mental question mark. What pitcher isn't--especially for the money the Phils would want to pay???- David, let me start off by saying that normally I agree with most of your views on the Phillies ..... And I even agree that if the Ruben and Monty had elected to keep both Lee and Halladay, they would have had to consider eating (God forbid) Moyer's $8 million for 2010 ..... But having to bid farewell to a well-respected veteran like Jamie? ..... You make it like this guy has spent his entire career in the organization ..... David, you may be too young to remember this but the Phillies released Steve Carlton in the middle of the season ..... So, why should they care about doing the same to Jamie Moyer? ..... Seriously, are you kidding? ..... Trading Cliff Lee was all about the budget ..... Period, end of story.— PhightinPhil
The Moyer second year was crazy but I don't expect him to turn down the money now. Victorino should lead off and J-Roll should bat 7th. An increase in OBP of .060 in the lead off slot cannot be ignored. I also would have loved a rotation headed by Halliday and Lee, but that is not to be, so we have to move on and enjoy the good things in place for the coming season.— TennPhan- Four things One, great column as always..two, great observation about losing Lee's salary to invest in a second tier starter I have been saying that since day one of the trade... three, you blow over the bullpens problems starting with Durbins inability to get people out he really looks over the hill and gassed, and Madsens really bad situational pitching down the stretch he blew hold after hold with his predictable straight as an arrow fastball... and Fourth, Lidge has two pitches and everyone is on to him if he and Hamels don't get another pitch everyone in the league will be on to them....— Trot
- Comment on Moyer, why not put him in Parks role and sign JJ Putz as a long shot rehab. What happened to Eyre as a lefty option and what about Mcdougal— Trot
- Why do you (and everyone else) continue to say "the phillies had to restock their farm system?" when the could have just as easily let lee walk next season and gotten two very good draft picks? the pitchers they got both project as relievers only and the outfielder sounds reggie taylor all over again. so again, why couldn't they have just let cliff lee walk? and if they aren't going to resign Blanton after this season (very likely), then who cares if they would have dealt him for a box of tennis balls? deal him for a middle reliever, then keep lee, let him walk and get two very good picks for him. this was a no-brainer. however, where you are correct is moyer. if they didn't have his contract, then the phillies are possibly talking about the best rotation ever this season.— steve1970
- Trot...Lidge had a bad year. It had nothing to do with him having just two pitches...it had to do with location and command, and it was probably based on health---his knee/elbow problems from the beginning. Two pitches for a closer is fine. (Mariano gets it done with just one.) Hamels could use a third pitch to compliment his arsenal but if he throws his one and two with command and precision. I'd rather a pitcher have two plus pitches than three mediocre pitches. I totally agree that the Lee move was about money though, and that's a shame based on what the fans have done over the past three/four seasons...— Eilex826
- Steve1970, you are comparing Reggie Taylor to Tyson Gillies? Taylor never hit .300 in the minors prior to playing in the MLB. As a matter of fact his first .300 season was after he was released and played for Lancaster in the IL at age 29. His best season was .275 with Scranton. Gillies is averaging .321 with a .419 OBP in his Minor League career. He hit .341 with 40 SB, a .430 OPB and .486 SLG this past year. Reggie never had an OBP over .310 before playing in the ML. They are not even close.— EL Zorro
- David, pretty sly evaluation, though time marches on and my feeling is that there are almost certainly facts yet to develop even before spring training that will cause you to change your evaluation, so as you stated it is definitely "as of now" and will have a short shelf life. Meantime, I'd like to see your analysis of Joe Savery's chances of breaking into that 5th starter slot or filling that blank multi-innings reliever one. I know he's not a mid-90's pitcher but a 12-1 record last season has to be say something about his knowing how to win. What do you think?— portmatilda
I agree with the Moyer comments, indeed logic dictates that he was the cause of us loosing Lee. Jamie - if your reading this do the right thing and become a coach on this team. You do not need the money and the Phillies need you to step aside. We need your teaching ability, you are in position to really hurt our chances this year.— 64 survivor- I know opinions are like buttholes (everyone is entitled to have one), but I still find it amazing how so called fans can be so spoiled, arrogant,and mindless in their interpretations of events involving sport teams and their players. How easy it is to sit in your rocking chair at home and spend someone else’s money and assume you have more knowledge than those closest to the situation. My favorite example of the epitome of this arrogance is the blowhard who claims he will now cancel his trip to Clearwater and his season tickets since his team will have only one CY Young Award Winner this year instead of two that he so dearly wanted and deserved. This intelligent decision of course must be based on the fact that the same team won the World Series the year before with zero CYA winners!!!! I was soooo glad to hear that this moron would reconsider his plan and magnanimously forgive the Phillies if indeed the team won a bunch of games this spring. Please, don’t do the team or the real fans any such favor, just go far away where you belong and don’t come back! I am sure there are lots of other teams out there that are so much more deserving of your wonderful intellect and undying loyalty.— stan the man too
- If I'm not mistaken Putz signed with the Chisox. Phils need to make a couple more significant pitching moves...they plainly don't have enough. I do not envy Jamie Moyer heading into the season; he is a man in the figurative crosshairs. The Phils fans will be loaded for bear as the result of Cliff Lee's departure.— dasher
- I hear so much whining. You might think this was a last place team. Having lived through a 23 game losing streak and Pancho Herrera being tried at second base, I tend to be more appreciative of what we have now. That having been said, I would like to offer the following thoughts on the current discourse: 1) Roy Halladay is the best pitcher on the planet and he is ours. 2) We have him for 4 years and he signed for less than market value. 3) Cliff Lee was not amenable to a similar deal. 4) If he is amenable, he can still prove it next December. 5) Halladay is far more accomplished pitcher than Lee. 6) The Phillies target was Halladay all along. 7) They made a good deal while keeping Brown and getting $6,000,000. 8) They rented Lee temporarily while waiting to get Halladay. 9) The Phils got back for Lee just about what they gave up for him. 10) They gave up 3 of their top 10 prospects and got back 3 of the same. 11) 2 draft choices next year is not comparable to 3 experienced prospects. 12) The 3 prospects are known quantities who could be in majors in 2 yrs. 13) They have matured and been scouted in pro ball for at least two years. 14) The prospects signing bonuses have already been paid. 15) Next year draftees will be 4-5 years from majors & cost big bonus money. Finally: Anyone who thinks that the pitcher who won the most games for the Phils the last two years should just give up his salary for next year or that the team can pay somebody $8,000,000 to be a coach should have a caretaker check their meds real soon!— stan the man too
