If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
At 10 games under .500, the Phillies will need a historic run if they hope to see the playoffs for a sixth straight season. In the Wild Card era, only three teams have ever come back from 10 games below .500 to qualify for the postseason. None of the three teams that accomplished the feat were 10 games under .500 as late as July 5.
The 2009 Rockies were 10 games under .500 on June 5but were 34-33 by June 19 and never again dipped below .500.
The 2005 Astros were 10 games under .500 on June 20 but were two games under by July 5.
The 2009 Rockies were 12 games under .500 on June 3 but were 34-33 by June 19 and never again dipped below .500.
The 2005 Astros were 15 games under .500 on May 27 but were two games under by July 5.
The 2003 Marlins bottomed out at 10 games below .500 on May 22.
At 37-47, the Phillies would have to go 51-27 just to reach 88 wins, which is the mark they'll likely need to reach to have a shot at the second wild card spot. That a .653 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, the Phillies went 49-29 over the last 78 games of last season, although they did have several 78-game stretches above .653 at other points during the season.
The Brewers went 51-27 over the last 78 games of the 2011 season, the best mark in the NL. The Phillies went 53-25 to end the 2010 season. Prior to that, the last NL teams to win at least 51 of their final 78 games were the Cardinals and Braves, both of whom won 53 to finish the 2004 season.
Comments (35)
With odds like that, you can pencil them in to win the World Series.— Ry824Guy- With odds like that, you can pencil them in to win the World Series.— Ry824Guy
- 51-27/88 wins is not even a remote possibility with this team and all of its problems (start with a bullpen that can't get 6 outs and go from there). It would be a major turnaround just to get to 80 wins. Season is over.— wmichael
- with Kendrick, Blanton and currently struggling or injured Worley, Phils will be lucky to win 1 this weekend— warbiscuit
- Chase's first game back, "braintrust" decided to go with a bullpen to start game and promtly lost 6 in a row... now they have Howard returning and have Kendrick starting... would be lucky to get a single win before Al-Star game— warbiscuit
I'm hoping for rain.— zubzub- 2 weeks ago, I thought if they could get to the break at 45-42, they could demonstrate that they can make headway against half-decent teams and would have a shot at the postseason. Exactly the opposite happened, with a resounding thud. They're probably chasing half a dozen teams for a WC spot, and they're all not going to collapse.— ijj
- Stop already. They need to see .500 before we need to read nonsense about the playoffs. I don't see that happening regardless of Howard and Halladay returning. We need to see some smart selling at the deadline so we can have hope for 2013.— bmcw
- How does Jeffrey Lurie's divorce affect the Phillies playoff chances? I would love another article about his divorce.— AreaMan
- Way too many holes in this team to make that kind of run. Getting back to 500 is pretty improbable. And this is the team Amaro "built." It's about time to hold him accountable and run him out of town.— lazyboy
- If I pick the right numbers, I'll win the lottery.....— dogman5
- If so then why don't you just quit covering them. Otherwise just shut the F up Murphy.— Phillyexp
- Kyle did fine tonight but of course, Antonio gave up 5 runs and the Phils were collapsed again. Howard did fine too. But as usual nobody drove in any runners. So forget 2012 and Rube, start selling as soon as you can for yutes.— Koons
- Step one fire Manuel step two fire dubbe step three fire Manuel— gates2012
- As if last night's horror show ending starring Pap wasn't bad enough, after KK pitched 7 scoreless innings Bastardo comes in to make sure this season from hell continues. Looks like the rest of the year meaningless, can they just gracefully bow out & get ready for next year so they get their 1st round pick? Yes, I'm a huge Phils fan, but the team playing this year has no resemblance to the real Phils save Chooch
- With an ERA now north of 5, mop up time is in Bastardo's future. If there is no improvement, he should be sent down to the Iron Pigs and bring up Cloyd.— dross
- Oh, Dubee should be kicked to the curb and Rod Nichols brought up to take his place. His visits this season have been like throwing gasoline on a fire.— dross
- Howard's return was a replica of his last game - 0 runs scored. Yeah, Utley and Howard were going to save this season.— bmcw
- I cannot believe that their are idiots still thinking this garbage team is going to make the playoffs. Cholly continues to make blunder moves every game. That was Kendricks game to lose not the people in the garbage pail bullpen. With Utley they are 1-7 and with Howard 0-1. They are on their way now. How do they lose tomorrow.— eaglesman1
- The cited teams all had something the Phils lack: heart. This them has played uninspired baseball from day one. Inexplicably, Booben and Manuel survive. The train is off the tracks, over the cliff, and crashed. Because Booben mismanaged the payroll, we're stuck with dead weight for years to come.— DameB
- Actually, I'm hoping they lose all the rest of their games. They'd still make history and it would be a lot easier!— catharine_christian_carpenter
- Since no one paid proper attention to the missing RBI's from the lineup, and our dependence on a bunch of no- talents to flesh out the roster, this team was destined to lose right after they played the Star Spangled Banner. The PR move right now, is to try to convince fans that since we no longer strive for first place, we can make the playoffs, and all our dreams will come true. If they can't sell that , those turnstiles will stop moving, and the cash cow will go dry. Even a country farmer knows when his milk production drops, you replace the cow or cows with better producers . It's time to get someone in to cull the herd !— phineas
- The "Sillies" are irrelevant......— STEPHEN1988
- If we were .500 right now Amaro would be tempted to stick with the current guys and convince himself he was right all along. Better to be where we are because even Amaro has to realize it's time to reshuffle and reload.— eman
- No way--- this team is cooked! DONE! RAJ FLUNKED BULLPEN From THE GET GO---he gets a D in not being aware of UT'S not coming back sooner-that's on him not doing his JOB in the off season…Jolly Charlie flunked playing a different brand of baseball early on--his approach station to station did not change from last year--HE FLUNKED demanding that his Players play SMALL BALL--hit run'- move runners over hitting to right field-et al-- AND Practicing IT IN SPRING TRAINING--being prepared as they--a BIG FLUNK!!
RAJ AND JOLLY Charlie both flunked sticking with players that DO NOT HAVE effective BIG LEAGUE ARMS --- MLB and contending for a WS is not a training /learning ground for pitchers in the bullpen!!! and they BOTH FLUNKED TELLING US AND THE TEAM JUST TREAD WATER TILL UT AND HOWARD RETURN---THAT PROVIDED EXCUSES FOR LESS THEN PERFORMANCES---AND IT DID !!!!!!
— carmen2 - Trade whomever you need to trade to get some YOUNG players on this team. The Marlins, Nats and Mets are all much younger, and over the next five years will only get better. After the trade deadline, bring up a half dozen players from Reading and Lehigh Valley to see if any of them can play at this level. August and September should be audition time!— joebruz1
- More historical LOSERDELPHIA Freedom— quadgator
- You can substitute "Phillies" with any team thats 10 games under .500 right now in that headline. So what?— Norf77
- So you're saying there's a chance . . .— carl51
- Good job by Murphy. They obviously aren't allowed to write anything that is very critical of Phillies' management or say the team is toast- thus all the hopeful drivel and framing the team as contenders. So Murphy figured out a way to put a positive spin on the Phillies being toast- if they make the playoffs, they will make history.— jtj10
- I'm surprised at venom vs. Amaro. First critique is not preparing for Utley and Howard. But...how do you replace guys like that? I think the Wigginton-Nix-Pierre moves were pretty good--about as good as you can do. But offense hasn't been the main problem. A fair criticism is the bullpen, which is a sieve. That was something where he gambled that some young guys would be ready. They weren't. But you have to gamble somewhere. Still, fair criticism. But let's be honest--the key here is the starting rotation. Who could've predicted they'd be this bad? Only Hamels is having a decent season, and even he's been a little shaky after a great start. Who could predict the record of Halladay and Lee at this point? If they were doing what they did last year, there wouldn't be as much need for a bullpen and the formula of get to Pap and go home would be working much better. They'd at least be treading water. Things have gone wrong. Ohly with hindsight can anyone claim Amaro is a fool. And as for those yelling to fire Charlie, you can't have it both ways. If the problem is the roster--and it is--how is it Charlie's fault?— monsieurms
- Charlie plays power ball, and is a good coach for the 2008 WS team, when Howard/Utley/Victorino/Werth were rising, while Burrell/Rollins/Felix just needed to be left alone as established pros; however, time has changed. Our established players are aging, and the young players are average at best. We need to switch from power ball to smart ball, therefore a manager that can:
1. Execute the game better to score enough runs for Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley
2. Manage and motivate the bullpen to hold the fort
3. While garnering the respect of the team.
Ryne Sandberg has hall of fame pedigree, even though he has not coached in the majors, he is the best option left.— cvs737 - We have history on our side -> Ryne Sandberg, hall of fame pedigree, winning and motivating resume;however, he needs a call up.— cvs737
- I love the phils and can remember the horror shows of past years as well as the glory days of recent times and former world series wins.But this is just not the phils year for a variety of reasons.Hang in there fans,2013 will soon be here.— streak1
- Agree completely with gates 2012. Same results in Cleveland when he managed. 90 wins in 2000, 91 wins in 2001, 37-49 in 2002 and fired at all star break. Players stopped playing for him. Bring up Sandberg, sign Brian fuentes, (better than anything we have before Papelbon) send Bastardo to the real pitching coach at Lehigh Valley, and start playing fundamental baseball again.— coachbruce
1
Popular Posts
About this blog
High Cheese is your place for the best Phillies coverage from the Daily News.
David Murphy
Daily News Staff Writer
Ryan Lawrence
Daily News Staff Writer
Search this blog:
Classifieds:
Site Services:
Partners:
Powered By:
