If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
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If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
At 10 games under .500, the Phillies will need a historic run if they hope to see the playoffs for a sixth straight season. In the Wild Card era, only three teams have ever come back from 10 games below .500 to qualify for the postseason. None of the three teams that accomplished the feat were 10 games under .500 as late as July 5.
The 2009 Rockies were 12 games under .500 on June 3 but were 34-33 by June 19 and never again dipped below .500.
The 2005 Astros were 15 games under .500 on May 27 but were two games under by July 5.
The 2003 Marlins bottomed out at 10 games below .500 on May 22.
At 37-47, the Phillies would have to go 51-27 just to reach 88 wins, which is the mark they'll likely need to reach to have a shot at the second wild card spot. That a .653 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, the Phillies went 49-29 over the last 78 games of last season, although they did have several 78-game stretches above .653 at other points during the season.
The Brewers went 51-27 over the last 78 games of the 2011 season, the best mark in the NL. The Phillies went 53-25 to end the 2010 season. Prior to that, the last NL teams to win at least 51 of their final 78 games were the Cardinals and Braves, both of whom won 53 to finish the 2004 season.
I'm surprised at venom vs. Amaro. First critique is not preparing for Utley and Howard. But...how do you replace guys like that? I think the Wigginton-Nix-Pierre moves were pretty good--about as good as you can do. But offense hasn't been the main problem. A fair criticism is the bullpen, which is a sieve. That was something where he gambled that some young guys would be ready. They weren't. But you have to gamble somewhere. Still, fair criticism. But let's be honest--the key here is the starting rotation. Who could've predicted they'd be this bad? Only Hamels is having a decent season, and even he's been a little shaky after a great start. Who could predict the record of Halladay and Lee at this point? If they were doing what they did last year, there wouldn't be as much need for a bullpen and the formula of get to Pap and go home would be working much better. They'd at least be treading water. Things have gone wrong. Ohly with hindsight can anyone claim Amaro is a fool. And as for those yelling to fire Charlie, you can't have it both ways. If the problem is the roster--and it is--how is it Charlie's fault?— monsieurms- Charlie plays power ball, and is a good coach for the 2008 WS team, when Howard/Utley/Victorino/Werth were rising, while Burrell/Rollins/Felix just needed to be left alone as established pros; however, time has changed. Our established players are aging, and the young players are average at best. We need to switch from power ball to smart ball, therefore a manager that can:
1. Execute the game better to score enough runs for Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley
2. Manage and motivate the bullpen to hold the fort
3. While garnering the respect of the team.
Ryne Sandberg has hall of fame pedigree, even though he has not coached in the majors, he is the best option left.— cvs737 - We have history on our side -> Ryne Sandberg, hall of fame pedigree, winning and motivating resume;however, he needs a call up.— cvs737
- I love the phils and can remember the horror shows of past years as well as the glory days of recent times and former world series wins.But this is just not the phils year for a variety of reasons.Hang in there fans,2013 will soon be here.— streak1
- Agree completely with gates 2012. Same results in Cleveland when he managed. 90 wins in 2000, 91 wins in 2001, 37-49 in 2002 and fired at all star break. Players stopped playing for him. Bring up Sandberg, sign Brian fuentes, (better than anything we have before Papelbon) send Bastardo to the real pitching coach at Lehigh Valley, and start playing fundamental baseball again.— coachbruce
