At 10 games under .500, the Phillies will need a historic run if they hope to see the playoffs for a sixth straight season. In the Wild Card era, only three teams have ever come back from 10 games below .500 to qualify for the postseason. None of the three teams that accomplished the feat were 10 games under .500 as late as July 5.
The 2009 Rockies were 12 games under .500 on June 3 but were 34-33 by June 19 and never again dipped below .500.
The 2005 Astros were 15 games under .500 on May 27 but were two games under by July 5.
The 2003 Marlins bottomed out at 10 games below .500 on May 22.
At 37-47, the Phillies would have to go 51-27 just to reach 88 wins, which is the mark they'll likely need to reach to have a shot at the second wild card spot. That a .653 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, the Phillies went 49-29 over the last 78 games of last season, although they did have several 78-game stretches above .653 at other points during the season.
The Brewers went 51-27 over the last 78 games of the 2011 season, the best mark in the NL. The Phillies went 53-25 to end the 2010 season. Prior to that, the last NL teams to win at least 51 of their final 78 games were the Cardinals and Braves, both of whom won 53 to finish the 2004 season.