If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
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If the Phillies make the playoffs, they will make history
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
At 10 games under .500, the Phillies will need a historic run if they hope to see the playoffs for a sixth straight season. In the Wild Card era, only three teams have ever come back from 10 games below .500 to qualify for the postseason. None of the three teams that accomplished the feat were 10 games under .500 as late as July 5.
The 2009 Rockies were 12 games under .500 on June 3 but were 34-33 by June 19 and never again dipped below .500.
The 2005 Astros were 15 games under .500 on May 27 but were two games under by July 5.
The 2003 Marlins bottomed out at 10 games below .500 on May 22.
At 37-47, the Phillies would have to go 51-27 just to reach 88 wins, which is the mark they'll likely need to reach to have a shot at the second wild card spot. That a .653 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, the Phillies went 49-29 over the last 78 games of last season, although they did have several 78-game stretches above .653 at other points during the season.
The Brewers went 51-27 over the last 78 games of the 2011 season, the best mark in the NL. The Phillies went 53-25 to end the 2010 season. Prior to that, the last NL teams to win at least 51 of their final 78 games were the Cardinals and Braves, both of whom won 53 to finish the 2004 season.
With odds like that, you can pencil them in to win the World Series.— Ry824Guy- With odds like that, you can pencil them in to win the World Series.— Ry824Guy
- 51-27/88 wins is not even a remote possibility with this team and all of its problems (start with a bullpen that can't get 6 outs and go from there). It would be a major turnaround just to get to 80 wins. Season is over.— wmichael
- with Kendrick, Blanton and currently struggling or injured Worley, Phils will be lucky to win 1 this weekend— warbiscuit
- Chase's first game back, "braintrust" decided to go with a bullpen to start game and promtly lost 6 in a row... now they have Howard returning and have Kendrick starting... would be lucky to get a single win before Al-Star game— warbiscuit
I'm hoping for rain.— zubzub- 2 weeks ago, I thought if they could get to the break at 45-42, they could demonstrate that they can make headway against half-decent teams and would have a shot at the postseason. Exactly the opposite happened, with a resounding thud. They're probably chasing half a dozen teams for a WC spot, and they're all not going to collapse.— ijj
- Stop already. They need to see .500 before we need to read nonsense about the playoffs. I don't see that happening regardless of Howard and Halladay returning. We need to see some smart selling at the deadline so we can have hope for 2013.— bmcw
- How does Jeffrey Lurie's divorce affect the Phillies playoff chances? I would love another article about his divorce.— AreaMan
- Way too many holes in this team to make that kind of run. Getting back to 500 is pretty improbable. And this is the team Amaro "built." It's about time to hold him accountable and run him out of town.— lazyboy
- If I pick the right numbers, I'll win the lottery.....— dogman5
- If so then why don't you just quit covering them. Otherwise just shut the F up Murphy.— Phillyexp
- Kyle did fine tonight but of course, Antonio gave up 5 runs and the Phils were collapsed again. Howard did fine too. But as usual nobody drove in any runners. So forget 2012 and Rube, start selling as soon as you can for yutes.— Koons
- Step one fire Manuel step two fire dubbe step three fire Manuel— gates2012
- As if last night's horror show ending starring Pap wasn't bad enough, after KK pitched 7 scoreless innings Bastardo comes in to make sure this season from hell continues. Looks like the rest of the year meaningless, can they just gracefully bow out & get ready for next year so they get their 1st round pick? Yes, I'm a huge Phils fan, but the team playing this year has no resemblance to the real Phils save Chooch
