How much will Hamels earn?
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How much will Hamels earn?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
If you have already read the paper today, you already know that today is the first day that major leaguers can file for arbitration. What you don't know - and what nobody knows - is how the process will play out, particularly for the two Phillies who could be in line for the biggest raises. The Ryan Howard situation is well-documented. Last year, he set a record for a first-year arbitration-eligible player, earning $10 million after winning his case against the Phillies, who had sought to pay him $7 million. This year, he is likely in line for another big raise.
But the situation I am more interested in is that of lefthander Cole Hamels. Hamels was pretty upset last season when the Phillies renewed his contract at $500,000. I talked to his agent yesterday, who said that there are no hard feelings between the two sides. But John Boggs also said the Phillies and Hamels have not yet had any discussions about a potential long-term deal, and he didn't really have a good feeling on the likelihood of such a contract.
Under Pat Gillick, the Phillies were hesitant to give pitchers anything more than a three-year deal. Hamels still has four more seasons under club control. He is also coming off a year in which he pitched a career-high 227 1/3 innings during the regular season alone.
But Hamels is also coming off a year in which he established himself as one of the true dominant starters in the game. He won the NLCS MVP and the World Series MVP and led the National League in innings. In short, he is in line for a big raise.
The question: how big?
There are two players to zero in on when trying to compare Hamels' situation. The one name Boggs mentioned was Dontrelle Willis, who agreed to a one-year, $4.35 million deal with the Marlins in January of 200.
Another name to keep an eye on is Chien Ming-Wang, who lost his arbitration case last year and earned $4 million from the Yankees.
Using those two players as bench marks, an educated guess would put Hamels' salary above both numbers. While Willis had more wins and a lower ERA at the time of his deal, Hamels has more strikeouts in fewer innings, plus a World Series MVP. You also have to factor in the rise in salaries over the past three years, and the fact that Hamels' 2008 salary of $500,000 was higher than either Willis' or Wang's was the year before their arbitration deal.
Here are the career numbers of the three pitchers at the time of their deals:
Willis in 2005: 46-27, 3.27 ERA, 451 SO, 594 IP
Hamels in 2008: 38-23, 3.43 ERA, 518 SO, 543 IP
Wang in 2007: 46-18, 3.74 ERA, 227 SO, 533 2/3 IP
If I had to guess, I'd put Hamels salary in the $5 million range next season.
Over the next few days, we'll take a look at the cases of each of the Phillies' arbitration eligible and try to forecast what they'll be looking for in terms of salary.
I would say he is worth every penny!— creativesafetysupply- players all over paid, period!— tyrone_loves_guns
- players all over paid, period!— tyrone_loves_guns
- Just for clarity, I want to apologize to everyone in this discussion if I am being harsh or overly finite. I realize this is a matter of opinion, and that mine is the minority opinion. But it is a sore subject with me (obviously), and I tend to get carried away. Don't take it personally.— RollinsWasRight
- Fascinating - the Phillies payroll is going to increase from approx. $100M in 2008 to approx. $125M in 2009, and still geniuses are saying they need to "open their wallets". I'd like to know what other ML franchise is planning on increasing its payroll 25% in one offseason in a horrible economy. Varsho - the "escalating scale". It is stupid, on all levels. Overpaying 30-somethings while under paying players in their prime. Going year to year with guys who are likely to maintain their level of performance, while doling out long-term, guaranteed deals to guys who are more than likely to decline or break down entirely. Comparatively paying players not based on their or anyone else's performance, but based on other player's salaries. The reason for bloated contracts for the Eatons and Burnetts of the world is that they get jobbed when they are younger. The system is set up to operate exactly the way it operates, and it makes no sense. It is all escalating, and it is all fundmentally flawed.— RollinsWasRight
- 93Phils - the NFL also affords its teams the luxury of cutting bait with dead weight contracts so they can continue to improve. And baseball is doling out more and more cash to draft picks and foreign minor league free agents. The difference is, far too often, Major League franchises are hamstrung by not being able to compete financially for available free agents, in some cases due to the fact the asking price is ridiculous. The system does not SAVE the owners money...it COSTS them money on bad contracts for veteran players. 26, 27, 28 year olds should be making big money. After 31 or 32, their salaries should be decreasing, but instead, they get bigger deals at that age than any other. In what fantasy land does that makes sense? Because of signing bonuses in the NFL? That isn't even really relevant, as NFL draft picks play on NFL teams that same year, and are paid professional salaries. Baseball draft picks don't, and most have deals that include minor league and major league salaries, depending on how quickly they ascend through the system.— RollinsWasRight
- RWR - the problem isn't the system per se - its that GMs for some reason give guys like Adam Eaton huge contracts that they weren't worth in their prime or in old age. Then you say, if Adam Eaton is worth $8 mil per year, then Burnett certainly is worth $16.5 mil..— Gary Varsho
- 6 years, $70 million buys out his arbitration years and a few years of free agency and takes Hamels until he is 31. Sounds reasonable to me and he is worth it.— joedadd
- Bake - Giving Hamels a 3 year deal gets you nothing. He can't be a free agent for 3 more years anyway. The only reason to give someone a long term deal is to avoid them becoming a free agent. But he would become a free agent in 3 years either way, so a 3 year deal would be a no win for the Phillies - all risk, no reward.— Gary Varsho
- Hammels deserves a multiyear deal with 8-10mil/season. He'd paid his dues. Phillies owners should open their wallets (heavily guarded by Scorpions and Piranhas) and give him what he deserves.— CapitanesFua
- The system is fine, RollinswasRight. Reward players who have proven that they are good. The NFL gives 1st round picks huge signing bonuses to players who have proven nothing. Teams can reward young players for what they are worth. Pujols and Longoria signed long term deals when they had years left of this arbitration stuff. The Phils can give Howard and Hamels long term deals, but they choose not to— 93phils
- Bake, next year is only Hamels 4th in the Majors. He only has 2+ years of service time. He came up mid-season in 2006. And the parallel to Santana is fair, but there's no guarantee that Hamels will continue to follow the same path, and I have no idea what Santana earned in his first year of arbitration eligibility, but I don't think it was more than $5M. And what is the point of locking him up for 3 years, when he is under team control for the next four seasons? A four-year deal I get, but the number would have to be bigger than $40M, because he could likely get more than that going year-to-year like Howard is doing. The bigger problem with the Phillies is how hamstrung they always seem to be by wasted money. They are paying close to $14M this year to Adam Eaton and Jim Thome. Would be nice to have that money to spend on Hamels, or Howard, or another FA, like Derek Lowe. Also, I would much rather have Burrell in LF for 2 yrs, $16M than Ibanez for 3 yrs., $30M+. I really think the Phillies blew this one. Once again, the Phillies' issue is not how much they spend, but how they spend it.— RollinsWasRight
- Of course, the stupid escalating pay scale of MLB is just so fundamentally stupid. It is totally wrong for AJ Burnett to be getting $16.5M per year, and Hamels to be getting possibly $5M. If Burnett is worth $16.5M, Hamels is worth at least that. But oh no, we have to reward veterans for the money we screwed them out of when they were younger. And this system is supposedly in place to protect the owners. What a bunch of nonsense. How about paying the young players what they are actually worth, and stop overpaying for aging veterans for their decline years, during which they will likely get hurt and completely decimate the salary structure of your team? Oh wait, that makes too much sense for MLB, and institution that thinks it is a good idea to allow a moron like Bud Selig to oversee the whole industry.— RollinsWasRight
- At this stage of his career, Hamels is positioned similarly to where Santana was, except with the NLCS and World Series MVPs. Check it out here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/santajo02.shtml In Sanatna's 25-year old season and fifth year in the majors, what would be next year for Hamels, he was truly dominant and won the Cy Young. His year that year, as well as the season following, was very similar to Hamels' year this year. If the Phils could sign Hamels today for three years and $30M, they would be crazy not to. They won;t do that, however. So, they will have to bank on him getting injured or pitching badly - essentially betting against themselves - in the hope of spending less. They could have loked him up for $10M less, had they done this last year of course.— Bake McBride
- He won't get more than $5M. And honestly, if he asked for $5M for next year right now, I would bet the Phillies would give it to him and avoid the whole ugly mess. He is not Ryan Howard. He hasn't accomplished things no other player before him has accomplished. He has not reset the bar for young pitchers. He's been very good. He was terrific in the playoffs, but realistically, that amounts to a hot streak of 5 starts. He isn't going to be breaking any arbitration records, and you are seriously jumping the gun with such an over-the-top assessment as he has "established himself as one of the true dominant starters in the game". He was 14-10 this year, with a 3.09 ERA, 196 K in 227.1 IP. Those are nice numbers, but hardly spectacular, or "dominant". I love the kid, and want to see him locked up long term. But let's wait a little longer before we start treating him like Johan Santana, please.— RollinsWasRight
- You think I want Hamels to go? Never. I love Hamels. But do you really think the Phillies are going to give him 20 per year like the Yankees will?— Beef69
- If I had the money I would walk from Lancaster with $5 mil and hand it to him myself. He said and did ALL we could ask. We should have asked for $2 per person that attended the PARADE to cover this cost. He is well worth the money!!!!— lionpres
Comment removed.- I think the state of Florida doesnt have income taxes... so Burrell's $8 mill per year is comparable to what he made last year... I think...— 93phils
- Heard Burrell is close to a 2yr 16mil deal with the Rays. That is pretty cheap.— Beef69
- I went to a Yankees game last year just to see that stadium. I argued that point to the people that were sitting around me, they had no clue what I was talking about. Just spoiled fans.— Beef69
- Beef69, the Yanks are signing everyone that they think will help them 'buy' the World Series 2009! Terrible isn't it?— phillywebcast
- I got a question. What year will Hamels become a Yankee?— Beef69
- He's worth every penny— jeff gross
