How much is too much for Halladay?
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How much is too much for Halladay?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Just when you thought the trade market was going to flat-line, word comes from Toronto that the Blue Jays will listen to offers for ace righthander Roy Halladay.
"We have to see what's out there," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi told Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com. "I'm not saying we're going to shop him. But if something makes sense, we at least have to listen. We're (leaning) more toward listening than we've ever been."
I have a lot of respect of Rosenthal -- most of what he says is accurate and makes a lot of sense. In the column where Ricciardi's quotes appeared, the FoxSports.com analyst breaks down some likely contenders for Halladay. And, lo and behold, the Phillies are one of his front-runners. But the Jays are not going to give Halladay away, so get any thoughts of a Kyle Kendrick, Jason Donald and Yohan Flande package out of your head. How much will it take to pry away from our friendly neighbors to the North? Rosenthal mentions Clay Buchholz as a starting point should the Red Sox seek to get into the sweepstakes. He is a top-shelf prospect with major league experience. The Phillies do not have any of those.
But they do have bargaining chips.
Here are the two questions that need to be answered: What would it take to get Halladay? How much is too much?
First, let's take a look at what a team would be getting on the field:
- Halladay is 32 years old.
- From 2006-2008 he averaged 17 wins, 7 losses, a 3.22 ERA, 6.2 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings.
- This season, he is 10-2 with a 2.79 ERA. Opponents are hitting .250 off of him.
- Halladay is 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 35 career interleague appearances.
- Halladay was on the disabled list twice with shoulder problems in 2004, and missed the second half of 2005 after breaking his leg. But he has been mostly healthy since, although he did spend time on the DL in 2007 after an appendectomy.
- The Phillies coaching staff likes Halladay a lot.
Second let's take a look at his contract:
- Halladay is in the second year of a three-year, $40 million contract
- He is scheduled to early $14.25 million this season, which means the Phillies would be adding roughly $7.125 million of payroll for the rest of this season.
- Halladay is scheduled to earn $15.75 million in 2010, after which he will become a free agent.
Third, let's take a look at the Phillies' bargaining chips:
- OF Dominic Brown: Rated by Baseball America as the organization's top prospect, he is currently on the disabled list with a broken finger, but that shouldn't limit his value. The 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder was hitting .299 with a .379 On Base Percentage with nine home runs, 38 RBI and 14 stolen bases at Class A Clearwater.
- RHP Kyle Drabek: He has been tearing up Double-A Reading, and at just 21 years old may be on the verge of surpassing Carlos Carrasco as the organization's top pitching prospect.
- LHP J.A. Happ: Happ recently recorded his first career complete game shutout against the Blue Jays and has been fantastic the last two seasons. Scouts don't think he has the upside of a Buchholz, but with five more years of club control and an impressive start to his career, he has value.
- INF Jason Donald: He has battled injury and performance issues since his promotion to Triple-A, but he is still viewed as one of the Phillies' better prospects.
- C Lou Marson: Like Donald, has had a so-so year at Triple-A. But, also like Donald, he is the closest thing the organization has to a major-league-ready bat, and he plays a premium position.
- OF Michael Taylor: You know all about him already. If you don't, check out his stats at Double-A Reading.
- RHP Carlos Carrasco: Kind of in the Gavin Floyd mold. Great stuff, but he still does not have the major league makeup. Then again, he is only 22 years old.
- OF John Mayberry: Has drifted back and forth between the Phils and Lehigh Valley. Big-time power, but won't be an everyday player in Philly for at least another year-and-a-half.
Now, let's try to formulate what kind of package it would take to land Halladay:
As far as comparables, the best place to start is with the Brewers' acquisition of C.C. Sabathia last season.
To land Sabathia, the Brewers parted with power-hitting outfielder Matt LaPorta, who was not only their top prospect, but one of the top prospects in the game. They also gave up LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and 3B Taylor Green. None of those players were among the organization's top prospects.
But keep in mind, Sabathia was a free agent at the end of the season. Halladay has the added value of being under contract for next season.
So what will the Blue Jays be looking for?
I'd guess - and, again, it just a guess -- it will be something like this: One top-prospect with big major league upside (Brown, Drabek) one prospect who is close to major-league ready (Happ, Donald, Marson), one or two medium-level prospects (Kendrick, Carpenter, Mayberry etc) and one prospect from the lower levels of the system. The wild card in all of this is Carrasco. I'm just not sure how the Phillies or other teams view him. He could fit into either of the top two categories.
So here are some packages I'll throw out there. You tell me which ones wouldn't make sense for the Phillies:
- Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, John Mayberry Jr.
- Drabek, Jason Donald or Lou Marson, Andrew Carpenter, Player TBA
- Drabek, J.A. Happ, John Mayberry Jr., Player TBA
- Drabek, Michael Taylor, J.A. Happ, Player TBA
- Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Kyle Kendrick
Frankly, I don't know how much sense it would make to give up J.A. Happ, because although you up drastically upgrade the top of your rotation, you still have a big hole at the bottom of it. Then again, I like Happ a lot, and I think he brings a lot of things to the table that do not show up on radar guns and scouting reports. Who knows if the front office feels the same way -- his name has been linked in several proposed deals over the past year. At the same time, I don't know how much sense it would make for the Blue Jays to give up Halladay without getting a pitcher who can step into the rotation.
Whatever happens, at least it gives folks something to talk about.
All of these packages are absurd. I wouldn't trade the future for a 32 year old pitcher that has a history of injuries. Our core star players are aging. Surely 1 of our top pitching prospects can step-up and Michael Taylor should be untouchable!— brinkmang- They can't trade Taylor and Brown or Drabek and Carrasco - gotta be one or the other in either case. That would be the deal-breaker for me, as would trading Happ, which makes zero sense at this point. Can't imagine the Jays doing this without Drabek. I'd offer Drabek, Taylor, Donald, Kendrick. Keep Marson, keep Brown. I'm starting to think the Phillies are going to need Marson before they'd need Donald. Get Ricciardi on the phone.— wooderice
- I'd give up any of our prospect in a package for Roy Halladay.— TommyD18
- Lets see.....Numbers three and four are ridiculous. The only one that look possible is five and that is even a stretch. I would think taylor and drabek are untouchable.— 46 and 2
- No Drabek, Brown, Taylor or Carrasco. Those are my UNTOUCHABLES.— Irish Frank
- Hi David...I would not trade Taylor or Drabek, and preferably not Marson. How about Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and Kendrick? Carrasco or Kendrick could pitch right away, Donald is a year or two away and Brown higher upside but further away.— CupOrBust
- Keep Happ, Drabek & Taylor, give up KK, Donald, Mayberry Jr, and either Carlos Carrasco or Marson.— dksurf
- Hey, do you think the Jays have right-handed bat who can fog a mirror? We'll throw in "Boomerang" Escalona.— wooderice
Comment removed.- Make this trade today! But keep Drabek and J.A. Happ. Anyone else GOES. Would like to keep Marson, but that depends on how Ruiz is viewed long-term. Would like to keep Mayberry, but the strategy should be "which of those position players can serve as a apprentice on the bench as a pitch hitter when needed for the next 1-3 seasons" while Werth, Ibanez and Victorino play themselves in or out of positions.We might need only 1 talented backup outfield for the next couple years due to the current talent. In that case, keep the pitchers, trade the position players. With Hamels, Halladay, Haap, and then the rest of the crew we'll be in great shape for another few years in the rotation. Develop 3rd baseman, short stop and catcher next then start all over again.— MichaelZoe
- Why would you give up a player already in your rotation (JA Happ)when you desperately already need pitching? I understand Halladay is heads and shoulders above Happ, but it still leaves a hole in the rotation if you part with him.— dbuzzy19
- First off, I saw Michael Taylor play last week against Trenton. He is going to be a big time star in the majors. Any deal including him is out. #4 is out. Drabek has been lights out at Reading. He is going to be a top of the rotation starter. Any deal including him is out. #2 & #3 gone. JA Happ is going to be a solid pitcher for many years at a reasonable price. You need guys like him him to keep the salary structure somewhat reasonable. #1 is done. This leaves #5. Dominic Brown is at least three years away and you have Michael Taylor a year away. He's tradeable. Carrasco has been inconsistent at AAA. He's OK to deal. Kyle Kendrick stinks. He can be dealt. Lou Marson may or may not be a good major league catcher. See ya. Option #5 is the best.— syddan26
- nicely done David— GOdouble
- Taylor is not to go and neither is Drabek. If it takes 4 guys to get Roy, then one has to wonder if at 32, he will continue to be the beast he is now. How many years does he go? Is he a DNA Moyer, or Eaton? Who knows? No. 1 may be fine , but not Happ. Put Carpenter, in there for the 4th and I would do it.— KGKoons
- Don't give up taylor, mayberry, or drabek. Period. The phillies should go with what's been working and thats bringing guys up through the farm system. This team is full of guys who played their way through the system from Clearwater, to Reading, to Scranton or Lehigh Valley. I know the pithcing looks bad, but they are where they were last year. If it ain't broke don't fix it.— jwood
