How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
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How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There was a lot of head-scratching on Tuesday afternoon when the Phillies traded away Hunter Pence for a package of players headlined by Giants catching prospect Tommy Joseph. In a recent column, esteemed baseball scribe Jayson Stark relays an email he received from a baseball person who wondered, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?"
It is a fair question to ask, provided the focus is the totality of their moves over the last few offseasons. The one thing the last few days have shown is that the Phillies' ability to spend on payroll is a serious issue moving forward. Ruben Amaro Jr. consistently deflects questions about his budget, but with a little deductive reasoning, we can get a pretty good idea of the meaning of his maneuvering prior to Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline. And what I infer is that $189 million is going to be their targeted payroll for the foreseeable future. That is the number of the luxury tax threshold after next season. I infer that they are willing to spend up to that amount next season, meaning they would be subjected to a 17.5 percent tax (an amount that is hardly a deterrent). But they do not seem willing to go over that amount on a consistent basis, as evidenced by the apparent fact-finding mission they conducted with regard to trade interest in veterans like Cliff Lee and Jimmy Rollins. Even the Yankees are trying to get their payroll under $189 million. The new CBA sets up that number as a near-de-facto salary cap, given the penalties for exceeding it multiple seasons in a row.
So, there we have it: $189 million.
As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Pence trade made sense when you considered the cost efficiency of his production when compared to potential replacements. In this instance, I am convinced they did the right thing, as I'll attempt to illustrate in a minute. The real time to ask, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?" was last offseason, when they decided to allocate $12.5 million a year to a pitcher who will only log 60 or 70 innings in a season. Or a couple years before that, when they decided to give Ryan Howard a $25 million a year contract extension two years before his existing deal expired, in essence guaranteeing him $164 million over seven seasons through his 36th birthday. When you consider that, the following season, the Red Sox signed Adrian Gonzalez to a seven-year, $154 million extension that runs through his 36th birthday, and that Gonzalez was one year closer to free agency when he signed his deal, it is difficult to argue that the Phillies did not take an unnecessary and potentially crippling financial risk when they handed Howard an extension two years before free agency.
It is even fair to wonder what the Phillies were thinking when they signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal if such a commitment was going to end up being a problem. As far as I can tell, nothing unforeseen has happened since the Phillies made the decision to sign Lee to that deal. They knew Cole Hamels was going to be a free agent. They knew Jimmy Rollins was going to be a free agent and that they would likely have to overpay him because the options for replacing him were so slim. They knew they had already guaranteed Howard significant money. I guess what they didn't know was that Chase Utley would miss five months in 2010 and 2011 because of his knee condition. Still...it is hard to imagine that after only a year-and-a-half the Phillies are suddenly contemplating whether they would be better off without Lee and his salary. Sure, his numbers are down this year. But he was as good as advertised last season. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if, at the end of September, his production for 2012 is right where it has been for his career. The guy has always been streaky, and we might be getting set to enter one of his hot streaks. So again, the question: if the Phillies decided Lee was worth all of that money a year-and-a-half ago, how can they now be thinking that he might not be?
Long story short, you can't afford to overpay at every position if you want to maintain a payroll under $190 million. The Phillies are already overpaying at first base, short stop, closer, and starting pitcher. Which is why Hunter Pence is no longer a Phillie.
The Phillies knew there was a possibility that Pence could ask for upwards of $15 million arbitration after the season. Essentially, they could end up paying him as much as a free agent corner outfielder. It just didn't make sense, because Pence is not a $15 million-a-year player, especially not for a team that has a finite amount of payroll space.
In his calendar year with the Phillies, Pence hit .289 with a .357 on base percentage, .486 slugging percentage (.842 OPS) and 28 home runs in 676 plate appearances. Solid production. But not $15 million-a-year production.
Consider what the Phillies could get by pairing newly-acquired right fielder Nate Schierholtz with a right-handed hitting counterpart in a platoon situation. Below are three candidates who will be free agents after the season: Scott Hairston, Jonny Gomes, and Reed Johnson. I took each player's numbers against left-handed pitchers over the last two seasons and added them to Schierholtz's numbers against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons.
The results:
Hairston/Schierholtz platoon: .286/.341/.486 (.827 OPS), 24 HR, 118 SO, 662 PA
Gomes/Schierholtz platoon: .288/.367/.467 (.834 OPS), 22 HR, 136 SO, 671 PA
Johnson/Schierholtz platoon: .295/.349/.475 (.824 OPS), 18 HR, 114 SO, 639 PA
Now, compare those lines to the one posted by Phillies right fielders this season:
.271/.333/.449 (.783 OPS), 18 HR, 91 SO, 456 PA
They have gotten more home runs (the equivalent of 26 home runs over a 671 plate appearance season), about the same strikeouts, about the same isolated power, and less base-reaching ability.
All three of the hypothetical platoons are making less than $2.5 million combined this season. Schierholtz should be in line for an arbitration raise in the neighborhood of $2.75 million, but a right-handed platoon-type outfielder goes for between $1 million and $1.5 million on the open market (or, at least, it did on last year's open market). How much more does Hunter Pence give a team than the aforementioned platoons? More importantly, is it worth an extra $10 million to $12 million?
Rather than Pence alone, the Phillies would be better off with one of the above situations combined with an extra $10 to $12 million spent on a pair of veteran strikeout arms for the bullpen, or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade in center field (Shane Victorino instead of Rick Ankiel?), or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade at third base (Kevin Youkilis instead of Freddy Galvis?).
The Phillies have made plenty of questionable decisions over the last few seasons. Heck, you can question the return they got for Pence. But the philosophy of the move makes perfect sense, at least now that we know that they have a hard cap on what they can spend.
Hey Murhpy you're way off the mark. Here's why:
Hamels- 24
Haladay- 20
Worely- 1.5
Kendrick- 4.5
Ruiz-5
Howard 20
Utley- 15
Rollins- 11
Dom Brown- .5
Mayberry Jr- .5
Papelbon- 13
Bastardo 1.5
Kratz- .5
Schierholtz- 2.5
Stutes- .5
15 guys - 120 million. So fill in a long man in the bullpen, and two more decent bullpen arms and another bullpen stud. Now you got 19 guys 127million. Now get yourself a 5th starter and you have 20 guys and 133 million. Now add a utility infielder and a pinch hitter and you got 22 guys and 135 million. And you got 3 spots left, everyday RF, CF and 3B and you got (according to you) 54m to go, or (according to me) 44m to go. So that works out to 14-18m per spot, or exactly what Pence is projected to make in arbitration.
Oh wait you don't even want to make the unmentioned but obvious assumption that Lee is dealt even though he was shopped and then immediately put on waivers. Ok. So subtract the 6m for the fifth starter and add 25m for Cliff and you have 149m with 3 spots to fill. That's about 10-13m per position.
Not a good enough argument? Here's a kicker, there isn't a free agent 3b or SS available that is worth paying even 8m.(lol if you think Youkilis' option isn't getting picked up or that he's even worth his option) Kicker 2, the only CFs worth even 8m are Bourn and Victorino.
So whats to gleam? If the Phillies were serious about being around the threshold next year they certainly could have afforded Pence and still upgraded at 3rd and CF.
Tell me what an outfield consisting of Dom Brown, Victorino/Bourn and a platoon, and being under the threshold doesn't scream "We aren't trying to win"..— JoeinSouthPhilly- when The Contract was given to howard, there was absolutely no criticism about it in the philly press. none. however, a reporter in the new york times absolutely shredded amaro over it. when i made note of this curious juxtaposition in a post to this site, it obviously got lost in the ether between my laptop and philly because my comments never appeared. i honestly don't know the weight media criticism has on our esteemed gm, nonetheless, how could professional analysts in this town not have seen the utter folly, and how could a site billing itself as an open forum for philadelphia sports fans pre-empt my observation. whenever i read a reporter's defense of, or apology for, amaro, i would like to lock him in a small room with one or the other (or both) of the 'biscuits'.— bubba church & granny hamner
- Where do these platoon numbers come from? Schierholtz has never had more than 10 home runs or batted .280 in his career, but suddenly he will be part of this platoon with these numbers? How? Also, Murph also argued for keeping JRoll, who gets paid 10 to 12 mil a year but has no where near Pence's numbers. Inconsistent reasoning at best. I think he gets paid by the Phils to write these articles. Pence's defense was suspect this year, I will agree, but is offence was not bad at all.— staup640
- Shows the value of moneyball. For those who are cynical, the 93' Phils were a total moneyball team. Their walks and OBP were off the charts but no huge stars (like a Reggie Jackson). Moving in that direction now with a strong pitching staff is wise.— kenkap
- Werth isn't a $15mm per season player just as Jason Werth wasn't, as wasn't Aaron Rowand before him. I suspect DBrown falls back into right before long but either way you replace a $15mm OF'er with the league minimum variety. The Phillies can fix many areas of concern this off-season but it had to start with Pence. A likable guy, a likable player, but I don't want to be wishing we made the necessary move at this point next season. The Phil's FO got this one right— SteveP
- Amaro took his shots. But it didn't work, those are the breaks. Thanks for the great years.— Fritz and Alice
- Mayberry, Mayberry, Mayberry ! A handsome ball player who's talents don't begin to handle the job. His attraction to the Phillies, is his salary. Only a team in dire necessity would consider him a regular player. Trade Amaro, and get a GM with an idea how to build a team. He knows how to tear one down !— phineas
- Anybody who thinks Mayberry is a good player and needs to play more should have his head examined. Cliff Lee is a better hitter than Mayberry.— subgen
- Baloney. Don't give me the platooning numbers stuff. How did replacing Ibanez in LF on the cheap work out. You get what you pay for in life and the MLB is no different. Pence may have been overpaid but, as you indicated, he was just on a long list of Phillies overpaid. At least he earned his money unlike Lee or Utley or Polanco. Amaro screwed up signing Lee to all that money when he had 3 aces on his staff. It was fantasy baseball stuff. Now the Phillies will suffer.— sfofan
- I was about to write, "Because John Mayberry stinks." But Matt beat me to it.— 2smart4philly
- Disposing of Pence's contract makes sense in light of financial constraints, but did the Phillies receive adequate compensation for him. Did they even receive as much as they gave up to acquire him? With prospects I guess it takes time to fine out. I agree with another reader that Mayberry might be a better righthanded platoon next year than the people mentioned because he is younger and cheaper.— RICH W ALLEN
- No one could foresee Howard would snap his achilles tendon, but he did and I hope I'm wrong but I do not think he will ever be the same.I remember when a similar injury all but ended Bill White's career. All of these long term contracts are a big risk because of injury.— RICH W ALLEN
