Happ's arm and Hamels' cutter
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Happ's arm and Hamels' cutter
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Disclaimer: It's early. The Phillies are 7-2. And before their melt-down against the Nationals yesterday, they led the National League with a 2.90 ERA. Roy Halladay is still pitching every five days, starting tonight. Joe Blanton and his six or seven innings per start could be back by the end of the month (You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone, right?). And for all the gruff the Nationals take, they still have at least four hitters who could hold their own in this Phillies line-up (Dunn, Guzman, Zimmerman, Willingham).
That being said, a couple of pitching subplots have developed over the first couple weeks of the season. And while Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee will tell you that they don't fall into the "concern" category yet, they are at the very least puzzles that are worth monitoring over the next few trips through the rotation.
The first involves J.A. Happ's arm. Dating back to spring training, the lefty's fastball has appeared to lack some of the life it had during his stellar rookie campaign of a year ago. His success in 2009 stemmed from two chief variables: his ability to locate his fastball on both corners of the plate -- particularly inside -- and the way the ball seemed to explode out of his hand and surprise hitters (think of all the high swinging strikes he got). Happ has never been a low-pitch-count guy -- he walked 4.0 B/9 in 2008, 3.0 in 2009, and 3.5 during his minor league career -- but he has always seemed to be in command of his pitches. And though he is not known as an over-powering strikeout pitcher, he was able to work out of jams last year with opportune Ks.
Which brings us to yesterday. In 5.1 innings, Happ walked six batters while recording zero strikeouts. It was the first time in his career that he finished a start without a single strikeout. And the six walks tied a career-high.
The fact that he escaped without allowing a single earned run is not unprecedented, but it's pretty damn rare. In fact, Happ's performance was just the 12th time in the integration era in which a starting pitcher walked at least six and struck out none without allowing an earned run, according to data compiled by Baseball-Reference.com. Ten of those 12 starts lasted longer than Happ's. In short: it's hard to walk six batters in 5.1 innings and not allow an earned run.
So Happ is having command problems. What's the big deal?
Well, yesterday, his command problems were accompanied by a noticable drop in velocity. Happ usually sits between 89 MPH and 91 MPH, occasionally touching 92 or 93. Yesterday, he was sitting 87-89, dropping down to 85-86 at times. The drop-off might not sound significant, but it certainly jumped out at Charlie Manuel.
"I don't think he hit 90 once today," Manuel said after the game.
He actually hit 90 six times, according to Major League Baseball's pitch-tracking software, which is different from the notoriously-fickle scoreboard radar guns that ballparks use. But not once did he go above 90.
There were times in spring training when Happ battled his fastball. He finished March having walked 11 in 19.1 innings, a below-average 5.2 BB/9 rate. He's walked eight in 10.1 innings during the regular season.
The obvious first thought is that Happ is hurt. I asked Manuel and Dubee, and both responded, "I don't think so."
Of course, everybody's definiton of "hurt" is different.
Happ battled elbow soreness in 2007, a factor the team later attributed to his rough major league debut against the Mets in a spot start. He finished that season with a career-worst 5.02 ERA and 4.7 BB/9 walk rate at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Happ said he wasn't hurt yesterday.
"I'm not going to make anything big of it," Happ said. "It happens. I felt like that way a little bit in some spring games, where it seemed like it just wasn't quite coming out, but that's when you really have to try to execute. I was just a little inconsistent today."
Maybe Happ is just experiencing some arm fatigue that he has to work through. Maybe he is a slow starter. It took him a while to find his groove last summer -- in his first six starts, he walked 19 (4.8 BB/9) and struck out 24 (6.11 K/9) while posting a 4.08 ERA. In a start against the Red Sox on June 14, he walked six and struck out three while allowing five runs, seven hits and three home runs in 5.2 innings. His velocity that day was only slightly stronger than it was yesterday.
Whatever the case, it's something to watch. I wrote yesterday about the possibility of the Phillies skipping Kyle Kendrick in the rotation so that Happ could face the Braves, but I highly doubt that happens now. I figure Manuel will get Happ an extra day of rest whenever he can.
^
During 2008 and 2009, manager Charlie Manuel would sometimes indicate that he felt struggling righthander Brett Myers was relying too much on his cutter rather than being aggressive with his fastball.
In Myers' breakout 2005 season, when he went 13-8 with a 3.72 ERA in 215.1 innings, roughly 58 percent of his pitches were fastballs, and around 13 percent were cutters or sliders.
Below is his progression in the subsequent seasons
Year - FB%/SL%/ERA
2006 - 50/22/3.91
2007 - 48/13/4.33
2008 - 48/19/4.55
2009 - 52/18/4.84
We bring this up because the Phillies seemed similarly leery of Cole Hamels' desire to incorporate a cutter into his repetoire this spring. At the end of spring training Dubee said this was because the team did not want Hamels to abandon his curve ball.
Well, through two games, Hamels has thrown twice more cutters than curve balls. And just 52 percent of his pitches have been fastballs.
He has thrown just 12 curveballs, nine of them for balls, and one for a called strike (according to an unofficial tally).
EDIT: I'd initially written that he threw 11 curves, none for a called strike. He has actually thrown 12 curveballs, three for balls, one for a called strike.
Hamels has had some success with his cutter. Of the 27 he has thrown, only two have resulted in hits. Twenty have resulted in strikes, including five called, three swings, and seven foul balls.
But he has never pitched with a cutter before. And logic would seem to indicate that it will take him some time to learn exactly how best to use it. How do hitters react to it after seeing a fastball, after a change-up, on back-to-back pitches, with two strikes, etc.?
Paul Hagen has an interesting column on the situation, specifically on how the new pitch might affect his curveball.
Richie Allen - Excellent comment. Happ is the real thing. Will he ever be an ace?, probably not, but he has the stones to get through a bad day better than 90% of the starters in the NL. Should we instead worry about the bullpen... That's a big 10-4 good buddy.— ColKurtz
Interesting column, Mike. I also noticed the BB:K ration and was dismayed. Still, Happ shows every sign of being a good rotation member, though, even if something needs working on. Not nearly as worrisome as the others...sadly, all for different reasons. Any scuttlebutt on the free agent or trade scene for another starter? or any pitcher for that matter?— Rando- Interesting column, Mike. I also noticed the BB:K ration and was dismayed. Still, Happ shows every sign of being a good rotation member, though, even if something needs working on. Not nearly as worrisome as the others...sadly, all for different reasons. Any scuttlebutt on the free agent or trade scene for another starter? or any pitcher for that matter?— Rando
Idiots in the press box alert: so far this year Jamie Moyer has an ERA of 7.50 and J.A. Happ's ERA is 0.00, yet it is Happ who is getting no respect from the writers. One of these guys will be on the team for the playoffs this year and one won't. Don't ask any idiot in the press box to tell you which is which.
I didn't see Happ pitch that game. The results looked good. Happ looks to pretty solid, and consistent. This is what I missed? All of the hyper "fans" will worry more.— road515
There must be something wrong with Happ's arm. Have you looked at his ERA?- Rev, Murphy has to write about something. I enjoy the thought provoking analysis. I also give Murph credit for not getting too bogged down in the data. Unlike most young people of the ESPN generation, who rely on all stats. But, don't necessarily have enough experience to get a "feel" for the game.— road515
- I think the problem with Cole is in his head he doesnt believe in the pitches he throws. The reason why moyer his pitched so long with success is because he understands how to pitch people and he has faith in his pitches. Cole has a hard time shaking off a bad pitch or a good one that a good hitter just gets one.— skills
- Happ's arm, Hamels cutter, When are the idiots running this team going to do something about this horrible bullpen? A Halladay jem almost lost by these bums again— eaglesman1
- you listed the team era as 2.90 before yesterday. what is it minus halladay?— Sixersed
- Who is calling the pitches in games with Happ, Kendrick and Hamel?? Ruiz is a good catcher , so why is this sudden reliance on these new pitches that are still being developed??— tulsaphil
- Who is calling the pitches in games with Happ, Kendrick and Hamel?? Ruiz is a good catcher , so why is this sudden reliance on these new pitches that are still being developed??— tulsaphil
- Thats all very interesting David but how about the next time you're on Daily News Live you maybe brush your hair and pull up your tie? Sheesh...what are you? 12 years old?— IRAMITLA
- Revjim --- before I dispute your point, I will partially agree that sometimes Murph comes close to data overload-- while helpful, sometimes, its simply too much to digest. But let me ask, what would like writer's to discuss? These days everyone has seen every pitch and watched the post-game-- so the traditional role of writers describing the highlights of the game is virtually gone. That leaves a writer with two functions, 1) write about the main beat stories -- printed in the paper and 2) gettin' into the numbers -- especially in a blog format. I find it a very appropriate outlet/function of this blog. IMO.— randy_w
- It's obvious our 4 starters look bad. They are going 5 innings and have been saved by the terrible teams we have faced. By the end of the month, we will know the trouble we are in.— AllDawk_AllTheTime
- Hey Pokey1228.........I'd watch who your calling a idiot. You can't get personal or call people names or "BIG BROTHER" will kick you off and suspend you from posting.— Philly4fanDoc
- With JRoll down for about six weeks, more emphasis will be shown the starting 2,3,4,5 pitchers (LOVE ya Doc!) on their 2nd, 3rd, and fourth times through Major League rosters. And right now, I'm starting to see a few possible clouds on the horizon that COULD wind up blocking the "sun" for us. Here's hoping a fair wind blows those clouds out over the sea!— TBear
- the fact is that analysis paralysis is has infected all sports writers (I guess we call them that today). This column is another example of intellectual masturbation.— revjim
- The problem with Hamels is location. He can't make mistakes like a Sabathia or other power lefties, because he doesn't have the velocity to get away with. If he doesn't keep the ball down or command the corners he's in a lot of trouble, like Moyer. I think the cutter will be fine with time. It's location, location, location.— EL Zorro
- Hey "Leave in the 7th Inning Fans" go soak your "Live in your Momma's basement" heads. Phightin's are 7 and 2. As far as the early schedule being soft goes, you "real" sports fans would've gotten on them if they did poorly. So it is what it is, dopes. Just enjoy the fact you've got a winning team. A Championship team that other cities would die for especially DC. They swoon over the Phils in the sports pages here. Hamels has 2 wins. He's barely past 25 and he's already been a WS MVP and a WS Champ. What've you all done??? Oh yeah I forgot - The Star Wars gig in the basement.— Phillyexp
- For Happ to have a let down this year should be expected. He was great last year as a rookie. It will be tough for him to duplicate that. I agree that Hamels will get better, but it would be nice for someone other than Roy Halliday to go beyond six innings. At this rate, the bullpenn will be exhausted before July.— Hemingway
- To have Happ's line the pitcher has to turn in a gutsy performance. Great pitchers pitched decent games even on days when they didn't "pitch well," or didn't have their good fastball or good curve. Happ was missing a few mph on his fastball AND not locating pitches yet he pitched good enough to win. It's about time somebody starts giving him some credit for being a pretty damn good pitcher. Enough of the non-believre BS articles on why he shouldn't be performing as well as he is start after start.
- Its ok Hamels hasn't started great. If it was last year, he would have blown up even worse. He is staying composed on the mound. Thats the improvement I see. It's still early, lets see how he is doing in May.— BammBamm
If Ruiz is such a great handler of pitchers, he's calling the games, and the pitchers aren't shaking him off, maybe it should be Ruiz that we're talking about with pitch selection for Hamels and Kendrick.- The Nationals aren't taking gruff." the word you meant is is "guff." "Gruff" means, according to Merriam-Webster: "1 : rough, brusque, or stern in manner, speech, or aspect " (HTML deleted)— judas_priest
- he sounds jealous if you ask me....it's ok phillymike, I'm sure you could do better but probably choose against the money, fame, allure and numerous other perks that come with playing ball.— Bleue
- What? 5 comments and no crying for Cliff Lee?— reidbetweenthelines
- phillymike - you're ugly, huh? You sound like a bitter ugly man.— lulu
- Allow me to elaborate. Cole Hamels is neither the ace he was in 08 or the 4th starter he was in 09. He's a solid #2 who has made 2 sub par starts in April -- not exactly unprecedented. Plus, he's always better after the all star break... look it up. As for his mental state... I'm sure you know him personally, so you're in the position to comment on such things.— pokey1228
- Phillymike... you're an idiot.— pokey1228
- not lovin the words 'arm fatigue' in April. Interesting point on Cole needing to learn WHEN to use the cutter. I'm not sure you toss it from your arsenal after two starts, but his dependence on it definitely seems to be an issue. Seems the ideal scenario would be if he went out there with fastball-change-curve and mixed in the cutter here and there just to give hitters something else to look at. The curve is what really changes the hitters' eye leve. I'd hate to see him get away from that pitch
- Cole stinks- get rid of him, hes too whipped and worried about his image with Heidi— phillymike32
