Happ vs. the numbers, Howard vs. breaking balls
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Happ vs. the numbers, Howard vs. breaking balls
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
A month or two ago (it all blends together at this point), we took a look at some of the skepticism surrounding J.A. Happ's rookie season. Over the past couple of weeks, I've tried to dig a little deeper into Happ's performance last season, when he finished in the Top 10 in the National League in ERA and threw two complete games. One of the aspects of Happ's game that has always intrigued me is his delivery. While it might not look as unique as someone like Dontrelle Willis, Tim Lincecum or Hideo Nomo, Happ's delivery has some subtle characteristics that seem to keep hitters off balance. In addition to Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee, I talked to Happ's pitching coach at Northwestern, a former major league pitcher named Tim Stoddard. I also spent some time over at PhuturePhillies.com, where Phillies minor leaguer pitcher Michael Schwimer maintains a fascinating blog that combines insights on the baseball life, as well as the craft of pitching.
Happ's "deception" -- you may also hear to referred to as his "sneaky" fastball -- seems to stem from a variety of components:
1) Length
Happ has a 6-foot-6 frame that looks to be all arms and legs. This enables him to take a long stride to home plate, but it also enables him to release the ball closer to home plate than other pitchers, as well as get a good downward angle on the ball. Schwimer has done some pretty in-depth studies on release point and how it affects a hitter's timing at the plate. I'll refer you to the blog entry to get specifics.
http://phuturephillies.com/2009/07/28/baseballs-tradition-a-love-hate-relationship/#
2) Arm speed
The first thing you notice about Happ's delivery is his arm speed. His arm in motion looks very much like a whip cracking toward home plate. A pitcher who throws 95 miles an hour might light up the radar gun, but if his arm is moving in slow motion, it makes it easier for a hitter to follow the ball throughout the entire delivery.
3) Hiding the ball
Watch video of Happ throwing from a behind-the-plate camera angle. His arm seems to remain behind the rest of his body for an abnormally long amount of time. His right foot seems to hit the ground before his arm even leaves the cocked position.
4) Late movement
Happ's fastball doesn't have much movement on it, which is one of the reasons why is experiementing with a two-seamer. But the movement that he does have occurs really late to a hitter, something that Stoddard says results in the number of "mis-hits" that Happ seems to induce.
According to Schwimer's formula, Happ's fastball looks to be moving between 94 and 96 miles an hour to hitters, even when the radar gun shows its actual velocity to be between 89 and 92. Midway through last season, I talked to a Phillies hitter who had faced Happ in Live BP prior to the 2008 postseason, and he said the same thing -- that you don't realize how hard Happ is throwing unless you are actually in the batter's box trying to hit off of him.
Now, none of this directly debunks the notion that Happ pitched over his head last season, given the run-of-the-mill numbers he posted in some of the peripherals that sabermetrics relies heavily on (strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate). But it does give some indication that there are certain aspects of Happ's game that get lost in the numbers.
We take a more in-depth look at the whole thing in today's Daily News.
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Sports Illustrated baseball writer Tom Verducci spent the first week of spring training hanging around Bright House Field. Yesterday, he offered his first dispatch about the Phillies, and it is a really interesting one.
Verducci crunched some numbers from Stats Inc. and found that Ryan Howard saw more breaking balls, both in sheer volume and in percentage of pitches seen, than any other hitter in the majors. This might not be a newsflash to those of you who have watched pitchers feed the big man a steady diet of offspeed stuff, but it is really interesting to see an actual quantification of the trend. There is some really interesting stuff in here. I highly recommend reading it.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/writers/tom_verducci/archive/
Tim Stoddard was a 6'10 beast. Not afraid to throw inside.— mick314
Comment removed.- re:3)Hiding the ball, did you mean the "right" foot?— SEEK313
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- Sabermetric dorks don't know jack— JimG
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- "Are you trying to tell me Jesus Christ can't hit a curve ball?"— barefoot
- Good stuff Murphy. I think JA will have a decent year but the coaching staff needs to give him another pitch to throw or it could be a long season. I believe he has the stuff to be an excelent pitcher because of his mental makeup, but again the coaching will determine how well he does from here on out.... I know Howard has been a bit of a disappointment to some but last year I believe he did turn the corner around late July. If he continues to listen to those around him who want to help him he will become a force to recon with. When Schmidt was in his prime teams stopped throwing him anything on the corners of the plate. Mike had problems just like Ryan with being patient when they just wouldn't pitch to him. So take the walks Ryan its good for the average and OBP. Then really give Albert a run for his money.— Wally 24
- Another intangible would be his mental toughness which would help explain his ridiculous percentage of stranding baserunners. Some guys get flustered when they give up a Texas leaguer with two out and a guy on 1st, Happ just seems to shrug it off, bear down and make his next pitch. Also read somewhere (prob one of David's blogs) that he spent some of the offseason trying to perfect his cutter, which he felt he was leaving over the plate too much at times. That's all well and good, I just think it's worth keeping an eye on that he doesn't nibble too much and end up walking guys
I don't know how people can be dissappointed in Howards production. The guy is an RBI machine. I loved Schmidt but even in his best years he paled in comparison to Howard as a pure clean up hole hitter. What this guy is doing production wise is historic. The Phillies will go as far as he takes them.- Happ is a beast. FIP is too specific as it takes few stats into account. Why doesn't Law take into account sabermetrics most famous stat which is vorp. that takes almost everything into account and places a huge emphasis on innings pitch. he still scored higher than C.C. in 70 less innings. Law lives by obp for hitters so why not take that into account for pitchers. Happ's whip was 21st in majors right next wainwright, santana, jimenez, kershaw. There are stats that show Happ is mediocre and there are stats that show he is an ace. Law just took the worse possible stats for Happ and didn't acknowledge other areas.— mikebarley
- Murph, Good job. You've quickly become a must-read for baseball/Phillies geeks in this town, and I mean that in the most positive way.— MG44
- It's an outrage that the great petesuder has to use an intermediary to get valuable information to Ryan Howard. Can someone please text the man the Big Fella's cell number?— GoPhilsGo
- Stats don't win games. PLAYERS win games. Human beings with powers far beyond you and I. Happ is a PLAYER. Howard is a PLAYER. And so are SIX of their teammates. This is the best ALL-AROUND baseball team I have seen at this point of the year in my memory. And I've been following our Fightin's since I was in Grade school....back around 1956 or so when I was 10 years old! The only impediment that MIGHT keep them from another Championship would be that damn best of five series at the beginning of the playoffs. ANYBODY can take 3 of five from anybody else in the big leagues. If they get through that, they WILL beat anybody else in the Major Leagues in a best of seven format. Can't wait to get this party started!— TBear
- If RyHow ever can hit a lefthanded pitcher's breaking ball---look out!— Romus
