Happ/Martinez/Moyer through the prism of October
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Happ/Martinez/Moyer through the prism of October
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I mentioned this in my game story, and thought I'd start by elaborating. It is an interesting time to evaluate this Phillies team. It seems like regardless of how bad they play -- and in losing five of the last six, they are playing poorly right now -- the rest of the division seems content to let them run away with the title. Granted, it is early. And five games up with 58 to play is by no means a lock. But considering the teams chasing them, and their failure over the last three seasons to take advantage of the their mis-steps, it still feels comfortable.
The Phillies have played 104 games this season. They have been in first place for 70 of them. From April 28 through May 7 they lost three of six games, yet GAINED a game in the standings, going from a half game down to a half game up. From June 5 through 13, they lost five of eight, yet lost just one game in the standings. From June 16 through June 26, they lost nine of 10, yet lost just 3.5 games in the standings. And they enter tonight have lost five out of six, yet have lost just two games in the standings in doing so.
I say all this to provide some sort of context to the daily beat coverage you read on this blog and in the pages of our fine newspaper. The reason I focused more on Jamie Moyer's struggles last night and less on the offense's struggles is that, for better or worse, the Phillies offense is what it is. And now that Jimmy Rollins is hitting -- in a dramatic turn of events, he has gone from one of the few players not hitting to one of the few players who is hitting -- there aren't many big-picture concerns that one can derive from a six-game slice of the present. Simply put, the Phillies have had a maddeningly inconsistent offense for the last year-and-a-half, but there isn't much they can do except ride out the downturns and wait for the next wave, which is where we now sit.
With all that said, here is the breakdown for this afternoon:
1) I made this remark to somebody in the press box last night, and I'll make it here: I find it hard to believe that any other first-place team carries with it the level of intrigue that the Phillies currently have. Look at all the things that still need to get sorted out: What will happen with Pedro Martinez? How will his arrival affect the rest of the rotation? When will the three relievers on the disabled list return? Will Brett Myers be able to help the Phillies this season? If he is, what will his role be? Will Brad Lidge have different results in the final two months of the season? It really is a fascinating time to be covering the team.
2) Martinez makes a rehab start tonight in Reading. The Phillies have not said that this is is final rehab start. But the way Martinez has talked publicly, he expects this to be his final start, and might be a tad displeased if it is not. After pitching tonight, he would be on pace to make a start on Tuesday in Chicago against the Cubs. That would also be J.A. Happ's day to start.
3) So all signs indicate that the easiest move for the Phillies to make is to send Happ back to the bullpen, where he was 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 12 appearances before joining the rotation. After all, Martinez is pitching on Happ's day and Happ seems better suited for a bullpen role than Jamie Moyer. The thinking amongst my fellow beat scribes is that this move is destined to happen. I'm not so sure. . .
4A) We go back to the first point I made in this post: Right now, every decision should be made with an eye on the postseason. Sure, the Phillies are taking it one day at a time and yadda, yadda, yadda. But the fact of the matter is that, when you are defending World Champions, simply making the playoffs is not enough to satisfy the populous. So while the players are right to keep their sights short, those in charge must include October in every one of their moves. Of course, that is my point of view, but this is my blog, so I get to have one. To me, a decision like the one that confronts the Phillies needs to be made by working backwards:
4B) Moving Happ to the bullpen and keeping Moyer and Martinez in the rotation might make them a stronger team in the short-term. Happ, the thinking goes, pitched well in the role early in the year and has a young, fresh arm, so while the rotation might lose some strength by sticking with Moyer or Martinez, it would be off-set by the gain in strength in the bullpen. I don't necessarily agree with that line of thought -- after all, Happ was essentially a long man during his time as a reliever -- but let's say it is true. Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero are on pace to be back with the team within the next couple of weeks. While Clay Condrey remains far away from a return, you would think that he would be back at some point after the rosters expand in September. And the Phillies are optimistic that Brett Myers will be able to contribute in some fashion out of the bullpen. So while the team might benefit from Happ's arm in the bullpen now, what happens if all four of those players return? Two of them are capable of pitching multiple innings, like Happ; one of them is a lefty, like Happ. And one of them is a former closer with back-of-the-bullpen stuff. So if you move Happ to the bullpen, you are looking at a scenario in which the following could enter the final week of the season as relievers: Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre, Chan Ho Park, J.C. Romero, Brett Myers, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey, J.A. Happ. Maybe Happ is one of the seven best relievers in that bunch. But is he markedly better than any one of them to warrant the drop-off you might suffer by taking him out of the rotation? Maybe he is. Maybe he's not. Fortunately, it isn't my decision.
4C) So we've covered the bullpen angle of the Martinez connundrum. Now let's look at the rotation. Again, we'll work backwards. If the playoffs started today, who would the Phillies want in their four-man rotation? Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and Cole Hamels all are locks. Maybe Manuel, Amaro and Co. really would pick Jamie Moyer, deciding that his playoff experience and 10 wins outweigh his 5.55 ERA and inconsistency. If that is the case, then we've just wasted our breath dissecting this situation. Because if they view Moyer as a better starting option than Happ, then there is no reason why they shouldn't make Happ the odd man out. But let's say that, like you and I, the Phillies have watched Happ pitch into the sixth inning in all 13 of his starts, and post a team-leading 3.09 ERA, and pitch quality starts in seven of his last eight outings. And let's say that they decide that, on paper, their best playoff rotation at this point in time includes Lee, Blanton, Hamels and Happ. If that is what they project as their October rotation, does it make sense to switch it up now in August? It would stand to reason that moving Happ to the bullpen would risk tinkering with whatever magic he has been able to capture thus far as a starter. To me, the worst-case scenario is this: Move Happ to the bullpen, watch Moyer and Martinez both struggle as starters for the next month, then move Happ back to the rotation, at which point he struggles, and the Phillies are left to wonder whether Happ would have struggled regardless of a move to the bullpen, or if the yo-yoing had something to do with it. And when you have one eye on October, the No. 1 goal would seem to be avoiding worst-case scenarios.
4D) In essence, here is what I spent the last 500 words saying. The Phillies must consider Happ's worth as a starter both now and in October, divide it with his worth as a reliever both now and in October, and then compare it to Moyer's worth as a starter now and in October/His worth as a reliever now and in October and to Martinez's worth as a starter now and in October/His worth as a reliever now and in October.
5) I just realized that this blog post is already way too long, so I'll save the rest of the run down for later this afternoon.
Stop it.— EaglesWest- I'll tell you what I like, that none of the players has said a word about this. My thought would be to pay Martinez and release him. While I think he will be better than Moyer, and also help even out a heavy lefthanded rotation, the money he makes isnt worth the headache that could come from him in the mix. The fact is, after this year, Lee, Hamels, Happ, Moyer, and (hopefully) Blanton is the rotation for 2010; so, why mess with it at this point when it seems to be working?— Master Dreamz
- Moyer is the guy who would suffer the least from a temporary bump out of the rotation. Say you give Pedro 2-3 starts and you realize he can't cut it, or he gets hurt. Moyer can bounce right back into that slot and give you his customary 5-6 innings. The rest may even help him. I agree that Happ's rhythm could get screwed up if he gets yo-yo'd (yo-yoed?). And why does everyone say Moyer's skills don't work in the bullpen? Don't soft-throwing lefties always hang on a few extra years as situational relievers?— clunkerlane
- i think it would best for all journalists to make a pact to never write about the phillies pitching decisions, and instead wait for the manager to tell us the holy word.— jb99
- I agree with everything said in the post but there's nothing new here...you're just re-hashing what the local media has been talking about constantly since the Lee trade. I know the reporters think all of this is great "intrigue" but, honestly, I think talking about it is a lot more important to the media than the fans. Why am I going to waste time worrying about which move they will make? It's still at least 1 week away, if not longer, and I have no control over the situation. It makes for any interesting conversation for a day or two maybe, but re-hashing this stuff over and over for weeks is pointless.— JimG
- Way too many words to arrive at what should be a natural conclusion. Moyer is odd man out if Pedro has anything left (which we will know by mid month) ,,,,30ish words— mick314
Comment removed.- I couldn't agree more. Moyer seems to only pitch well against young, overanxious, inexperienced teams. There isn't one team they could face (Giants, Rockies, Cards, Cubs) that fits that mold. I can't actually believe the Phillies think they are better off in a Game 4 scenario with Moyer on the hill over Happ.— twothousandeight
- Waiting for your critique of 'War and Peace" Andy. Shouldn't be any longer than this. I don't think the decision on the rotation can be made until the last week of August when Martinez has had tme to pitch a couple more times. If he continues to struggle (such as giving up the run per inning he has so far in the minors), keep Happ in the rotation. If Martinez starts to look good put Happ in the bullpen and put him back in the rotation should Martinez or Moyer implode. Nice problem for the Phils to have frankly.— James TL
- Here's how it SHOULD go... Happ does not leave the rotation unless he starts turning in Moyer, which is unlikely. Having said that, Pedro and Moyer spot each other's starts the rest of the year. Playoffs, Jamie watches from the sidelines and Pedro goes to the pen. It's that simple, folks.— PhilCali
- Comment removed.
- Funny... though, JimG, there are a ton of reader comments after every article on this matter. Murph, good summary--- it isn't simple decision to breakdown... or an easy analysis to stay concise. It's good to hear from someone close to the team feels that the situation will end up.— randy_w
- Your blog points out what is wrong with baseball today, not just the Phillies. Teams view the bullpen as more important than starting pitching. Happ has pitched at least six innings in his last eight starts. And he has pitched at least seven innings in five of them. When you get that kind of production out of your starter, the need for your bullpen is minimized. Isn't that what the focus should be? Unless you are moving Happ to the pen with the sole intention of making him your primary lefty to replace Romero, who has struggled in that role this season, the Phillies are making a mistake. If Moyer is sent to the pen, he will likely be used as a long man if one of the starters gets in trouble early. He seems perfectly suited for that role at this point in his career. That in a nutshell is the question that needs to be asked and answered first. Is Happ going to the pen to get face Andre Ethier with two on and two out in the eighth? Or is to relieve Moyer, who could not make it out of the third inning of Game 4? If it's the latter, then Moyer's time as a starter should be over.— PhightinPhil
- I was against signing Pedro from the beginning and I have no reason to be in favor of it now. Unless he can pitch from the Pen, and unless 3 of our RP's aren't able to go in the post season, I see no place for him on the team. Pay him to sit on the beach in the DR like he was doing all season. BTW: 3 because Myers gets one spot, Moyer (the 5th starter) gets another and only if there is a 3rd, and we decide to go with the same amount of pitchers post season (as apposed to adding an extra bat)does he have a place.— fan_in_jerusalem
- James TL: You may want to check who's blog you're reading before commenting. This is Dave's, not Andy's. Andy would never give us a detailed analysis of anything— fan_in_jerusalem
- Logical Solution- Make both Moyer and Pedro "starters" and pitch them on the same day. Moyer starts, goes 5 or so innings and then Pedro comes in and takes it from there. Neither can pitch more than half the game anyway. They both will benefit by preparing as starters and this will save the bullpen from getting blown out which will happen too often if they start on different days. Pedro's arm stays strong as he only needs to pitch every fifth day. Happ stays in the rotation and keeps stretched out for the playoffs. Please let Ruben know that the problem has been solved.— ruggedI
- What happens to Rodrigo Lopez (3-1, 3.99 ERA) in all this. He has been putting together better starts than Jamie Moyer the past five weeks too. They should go to a 6 or 7 man rotation to start conserving arms if they want to really prepare for October. Cole already looks tired...— JimyV
- Ugh, it is an absolute joke if they remove Happ from the rotation in favor of Moyer. Moyer's tank is pretty much empty. He gets rocked way too often and hasn't gone more than seven innings this year (went seven only twice). Anything other than a Hamels-Lee-Blanton-Happ playoff rotation would be unbelievably silly (unless Pedro is lights out, which won't happen).— kmw5002
- Ugh, it is an absolute joke if they remove Happ from the rotation in favor of Moyer. Moyer's tank is pretty much empty. He gets rocked way too often and hasn't gone more than seven innings this year (went seven only twice). Anything other than a Hamels-Lee-Blanton-Happ playoff rotation would be unbelievably silly (unless Pedro is lights out, which won't happen). Maybe slide Pedro to the closer role if his stuff looks good; or Myers for that matter. I don't feel comfortable at all with Lidge in the postseason. Statistically, games are closer in the playoffs, and Lidge has been awful this year.— kmw5002
- If Moyer and Martinez pitch back-to-back in the rotation, the BP will be putting up 8+ innings total over those two days. Happ and Park will feel like they are pitching in the rotation again, they'll be getting so many innings. Keep Happ in rotation, Martinez in BP ready to replace Moyer in rotation if he can't right himself.— yardbyrd
- Happ has earned a solid spot in the rotation.— p-diddy
- Put Moyer in the pen for the post, reg season have him be a 6th man to pitch Marlins, Nats, DBacks, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Martinez as your 5 man rotation.— Will.i.Am
- Had they known they were going to get Lee, would they have signed Pedro? Doubt it.— Bake McBride
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- I have to agree with fan_in_jerusalem. The Pedro signing is interfering with the Phillies' rhythm, and pitching is all about rhythm. Happ has earned his starting spot. I love Moyer, but his 10 wins are an anomaly, and he is now a 5th starter. Pedro is at best worse a little worse than Blanton and at his worst much worse than Moyer.
- Lot of people glossing over the fact that Lee, Hamels, Moyer and Happ are all lefthanded. That's not an optimal situation. Happ is 5-2 as a starter, losing his last two outings. If he loses again tonight, there will be a lot of people jumping off that bandwagon. The guy is a one pitch pitcher. All he does is pump 91 mph fastballs. The bubble is bursting folks. Pedro starts next Tuesday.— booman55
- I do not feel comfortable.— philly_in_DC
- For fans who would be disappointed if the Phils merely make the playoffs and don't go to, or win, another World Series, I have this to ask: Have you not been paying attention over the past 126 years?! Consecutive World Series victories?! That's what you expect?! Its baseball, no National League team has repeated since when? The Big Red Machine in 1976. The dominant team in the National League in the 1990s, the Braves, went to 5 world series but only won 1. So, yeah, temper your disappointment in advance, hope they win, but expect to not win.— bobcitydoc
- let's see how Pedro does tonight against yankee farm team.— nutterbutter
- fan_in_jerusalem - - - - Me thinks you have a stalker. At the very least, a groupie.— PhightinPhil
- moyer will be let go on waivers. problem solved.— Beartha
- Well I liked the analysis. I want Happ to stay in the rotation but who am I? A fan. I do think Moyer may finally have reacher his nadir but again, he is so surprising. Pedro: I do not have much faith in him. It is frankly the hitting that is bothering me. We need catchers for next year that hit and two guys off the bench who are not near the Mendoza line.— KGKoons
- Well I liked the analysis. I want Happ to stay in the rotation but who am I? A fan. I do think Moyer may finally have reacher his nadir but again, he is so surprising. Pedro: I do not have much faith in him. It is frankly the hitting that is bothering me. We need catchers for next year that hit and two guys off the bench who are not near the Mendoza line.— KGKoons
- Moyer over Happ- no way!— delennis
- Happ deserves to be in the rotation. Moyer's stuff in the post-season as well as the regular season because you face more talented, more patient lineups. Pedro has pitched very well in post-season environments out of the pen -- WBC and ALDS and ALCS. So keeping in mind the postseason, keep Happ as the Game 4 starter; put Pedro a chance to pitch out of the bullpen and have him compete with Condrey, Durbin and Myers and shake Moyer's hand for his great service and keep him off the postseason roster. No shame in that. Kyle Kendrick pitched well for much of the year but fell to a numbers game and an upgrade in Blanton. So there you go.— BoricuaPhilsFan
- Happ is simply the best current starter on the staff. His stats speak volumns. If he is moved to the pen, it because the team made a commitment to Martinez and is loyal to Moyer. Happ is the better fit now and in October. Martinez is pitching great tonight at Double A against an average Double A team. Moyer and Martinez in the rotation will kill the pen because neither will work late into the game. Escalona can be the second lefty. I can't understand why he was become a yo-yo this year. He has good stuff for the middle innings. Reuben did a good job acquiring Lee. Now, the team must put egos aside and keep Happ in the rotation. Happ can become a huger winner in this town. He can pitch.— wmontanez27
- Escalona sucks, he's in double a now, the second lefty is Eyre, Romero will be back soon— robm0202
- Happ is shutting out the Rockies in the 8th...and people want to put him in the pen. The post season MUST BE: Lee - Hamels - Blanton - Happ. Since that is so, you leave those four alone. Moyer and Pedro can share the fifth spot. I like "rugged 1"s suggestion: Let Moyer pitch the first five innings and let Pedro pitch the last four innings since their both five inning pitchers. There, problem solved.— greenflyer
- I'll man up and admit I was wrong. Happ was impressive tonight. I'm a believer now. I guess I was a little cynical after seeing all the phenoms come through our system. Dump Moyer.— booman55
- Comment removed.
- Comment removed.
- Now is there any doubt on Happ? Now we have the 4, the other guys can battle it out.— KGKoons
- You can't take Happ out of the starting rotation at this point but and you probably can't take Moyer out based on the team winning 10 games while he's pitched. Unfortunately I think Pedro needs to be on the outside looking in as he has a suspect arm and is on the outside looking in. Right now the way that Happ is pitching, he'd get my nod for a spot in the starting rotation in the playoffs. It is August so it's not exactly early in the season.— Bill R4
- "Maybe Manuel, Amaro and Co. really would pick Jamie Moyer, deciding that his playoff experience and 10 wins outweigh his 5.55 ERA and inconsistency." His playoff experience sure helped him last time around, he was 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in the playoffs last year! He was awful. Now he sits here with a 5.55 ERA and basically a .500 record at 10-8. And now... after Happ's complete game shut out, this has to be a no brainer.— JPK512
- Wow, it is a typical statement. He pitched as well as most players out of the pen this year in a limited role. Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Eyre, Rubber Arm Condrey have all struggled. He has a live are robm0202. This team has had a lot worse pitching this year. He can pitch. Give him a chance. Too many Phillies pitchers are abused online before given a chance. You have probably blasted Blanton and Happ the past 2 years. I hope you also blast the Hamels because he has been horrible.— wmontanez27
- After Happ's performance tonight, any questions? Complete game, 4 hits, 10Ks....WTF are we even disgusing taking him out of the rotation?— gloriousglo2
- Comment removed.
- By his performance tonight against Colorado Happ has made this a no brainer. Let Martinez and Moyer figure out the 5th spot. To send Happ to the bullpen would rank as one of the more stupid moves this organization has made over the years (and that list is quite long).— 2stepbay
- I'm with Pratt all the way. Happ's gotta start til something changes for the worst. Give Moyer a "shoulder strain," let Pedro take 3 starts to see what he's got. If he pitches like in Reading tonight, no brainer. Moyer's a "coach on the field," so make him assistant pitching coach for the rest of the season, then let him retire like he should have after the Series last year. Would have been storybook...Elway-esque.— chirozel
- Forget Martinez as a starter. He's middle relief. The guy hasn't pitched in a big league game in almost 2 years. I guess none of you saw how bad he was with the Mets. Moyer is the 5th starter.— p-diddy
- Why is Moyer automatic in the future rotation? I say, his last start should be last night's and keep him in the dugout as a pitching coach. Do you really think Rich Dubee controls the current pitching staff,... I don't...— BurtonT
- Simple. Release Moyer. He's 46 and not pitching well. He is not needed and not being helpful. Martinez is a Hall-of-Famer and 9 years younger.— makrom
- Pedro is a 'plant' by the Mets. Cut him now.— greenflyer
- Just returned home from the game. If Happ is taken out of the rotation, than Charlie is the bumpkin we once thought he was. But he ain't nobody's fool, and Happ was too awesome tonight to ignore. A masterful performance!— natufian
- guy's been effective virtually every start, now throws a 4 hit shutout, and they're STILL thinking of removing him from the rotation!? in favor of a couple old guys with history?!? so...what's my question? something to do with management mentality, i guess.— kiwi
- My guess: Moyer will not be removed from the rotation, because of the financial hit the Phillies will take on his contract, which has another year and a half to run, and they apparently promised Martinez the chance to start, so Happ will be sent to the bullpen while Pedro gets two starts. Huge mistake, but a six-man rotation is unlikely.— chuckw
- I said before that I don't understand why Moyer is pitching in the rotation or bullpen even. It is ludicrous to even consider keeping him in the rotation and putting a quality guy like Happ into the bullpen. The numbers speak for themselves. I like Charlie Manuel, but sometimes the decisions he makes are unfathomable to me.— Irishman1943
- Moyer's high season ERA is heavily skewed due to a two-start stretch in May in which his ERA was 18.90. Without those two, he's got a 4.76, extremely comparable to Hamel's 4.68. More relevant is his performance recently. He's 7-3 with a 4.30 ERA in his last 12 starts and was 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA in July. Let's compare that with Hamels: 4-4 with a 4.34 ERA in his last 12, and 3-1 with a 4.38 in July. Obviously, their respective last start's were comparable, with Hamels' actually being slightly worse (more hits allowed, and an extra unearned run allowed). Take whatever conclusion you want from that.— kwhitegocubs
- It would be ridiculous to put Happ in the pen. Bon voyage Mr. Moyer, nice knowin ya.— david1
