Halladay: What we know, what we can discern, and why 2011 might be The Year
You have read the quotes, heard the facts, seen everything concrete the Phillies are willing to divulge about their strategy for fortifying their roster in the weeks to come. But rare is the occasion when it behooves an organization to open itself like a book to the general public. So now let's attempt to discern what they really mean, through deductive reasoning, background knowledge and a little bit of educated guess-work.
Halladay: What we know, what we can discern, and why 2011 might be The Year
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
You have read the quotes, heard the facts, seen everything concrete the Phillies are willing to divulge about their strategy for fortifying their roster in the weeks to come. But rare is the occasion when it behooves an organization to open itself like a book to the general public. So now let's attempt to discern what they really mean, through deductive reasoning, background knowledge and a little bit of educated guess-work.
Ruben Amaro Jr. says that some of his prospects are "untouchables," even if one of them is the only thing standing in the way of a deal for a top-of-the-rotation former Cy Young winner like Roy Halladay. Do you believe him?
No and yes. I believe that he wants prospective trade partners to believe that. And I even believe that he wants himself to believe that. But you are telling me that if the Blue Jays came forward and said that they would trade Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek straight up, plus pay half of Halladay's salary in 2010, that Amaro wouldn't even consider it? Much less strip down to his boxers and dress socks and do cartwheels in the Darien St. parking lot? Sorry, I don't buy it. Sure, the aforementioned scenario is unlikely. But that's not the point. The point is, there are no absolutes. There is a line between on and off limits, regardless of how extreme that line may be.
So you are telling me the Phillies would trade Kyle Drabek?
No and yes. If you asked me to handicap the odds of the 21-year-old righty being traded, I'd put them at 1,000-to-1. Not because of what Amaro said, but because of what Charlie Manuel said. As I wrote today in the printed product, Manuel is a man who is paid to win within the next three years, which is how long his contract covers. So when even he says that he wouldn't trade Drabek, and when he explains himself by comparing Drabek to Tom Seaver, it is a pretty good indication not only that the Phillies see Drabek in the same terms they saw Cole Hamels, but it is a pretty good indication that they think he will be in the major leagues by 2010 at the latest. And as much as a Roy Halladay might help their chances this year and next year, look at the rotation they are envisioning for 2011:
- Cole Hamels, $9.5 million
- TBA
- J.A. Happ, $2 million
- Tom Seaver (AKA Drabek) , $400,000
- TBA
That would give them three starters for a hair under $12 million. Which could set them up to spend big money on at least one top-of-the-rotation starter. Some names who are forecast to be on the market after the 2010 season? Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, and, yes, Roy Halladay. Which means any of those, plus unforeseen others, could be in Halladay-type trade situations by the middle of next year. Still under contract for that 2011 season will be Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins (assuming his option is picked up), Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino.
This is America, so I understand the impulsive nature that screams, "If not this year, then when?" And if Darren Daulton is correct and the world is going to end in 2012, then the Phillies could look pretty foolish for hording their Earthen Treasures. But 2011 still falls before 2012, and if you look at things from the perspective I just offered, then maybe the Phillies actually would have a better chance at winning a World Series by hanging on to Drabek and spending big money on a starter for 2011 then they would be trading away the farm this season for Roy Halladay.
Now, all of this is assuming that Drabek continues to progress as the Phillies believe he will, and that he stays healthy (remember he had elbow surgery in 2007). And it is assuming that Happ continues to be the solid No. 3/No. 4 that he has been. Which is why the faction who believes that you are better off trading an unproven-yet-high-ceiling for a "Sure Thing" like Roy Halladay has a point. But again, just like there are no absolutes when it comes to "untouchables," there are no absolutes when it comes to "Sure Things." Roy Halladay is 32 years old, and has just as good a chance at injuring himself as Drabek does.
So if Drabek isn't untouchable, at least by a strict interpretation of the word, why would Amaro and Manuel imply that he is?
It is called posturing, just like J.P. Ricciardi is doing by saying that the Blue Jays expect a haul -- start with two top pitching prospects and a solid position prospect and go from there -- or they are not trading Halladay. Does any one really think that Ricciardi was suddenly struck by the urge to go on a media campaign announcing the availability of his prize ace? That he simply feels obliged to let the world know that Halladay is available, but that he is under no pressure at all to trade the righthander away? Sure, the possibility exists. But Ricciardi is a smart man. And he knows that Halladay's value will never be higher.
If Ricciardi has already decided that Toronto has no shot at retaining him -- and he has said that publicly -- then there are only two reasons he has to hold on to him:
- The Blue Jays have a shot at winning a World Series this year or next.
- (Halladay's Value in Tickets Sold - Value of His Replacement) > ($7 million - Value Sacrificed By Waiting to Trade Him in Offseason)
True, Toronto is within four games of a Wild Card spot. But look at all the other teams who are in front of them, starting with Boston, New York and Tampa Bay in their own division. Ricciardi may very well believe that hanging on to Halladay is their best chance at winning. And it probably is. But the people who pay his salary may have decided that a World Series is unlikely, and that it is time to blow the thing up and save as much money in the process, and then leave it to the next guy to start building again. Keep in mind, they just released B.J. Ryan. And there best chance at saving money is by dealing Halladay. The only way it would make sense (or cents) to hang on to Halladay is if the Blue Jays believe his presence (which, ostensibly, will maintain the consumer's faith in a possible postseason run) will sell enough tickets to off-set both his salary for the rest of the season (roughly $7 million) plus the value they might be sacrificing by waiting until after the season to trade him. And that might very well be the case.
But it does no good for Ricciardi to tell the media, "Hey, the Boss Man told me I need to get rid of this contract. And, sure, I'd love to pillage another team's farm system in return. But I'm realistic, and I know we'll probably have to settle for one top pitching prospect and not two."
In the same way, it makes no sense for Ruben Amaro Jr. to tell the media, "Hey, we love Roy Halladay, and we have for the last year-and-a-half. We really don't want to trade away Drabek, Knapp or Dominic Brown. But if push came to shove, sure we'd think about parting with one of them."
Keep in mind that Ricciardi is not the only one reading Amaro's words. So is every other general manager who is thinking about putting together a package for Halladay. And it does no good to show your cards to every one involved. If Amaro comes out and says, "No one is untouchable," then John Mozeliak in St. Louis reads that and thinks, "Well, if they are thinking about including their top two prospects, then we have have to top that." Amaro does not want to help drive up the asking price.
Nor, for that matter, do any of Toronto's rivals in the American League. Think it is a coincidence that a day after many national pundits floated the Yankees as possible landing place, some "club sources" told New York reporters that there was no chance they would be involved in the bidding? Brian Cashman doesn't want to be used to help drive up the potential haul that the Blue Jays can land.
But if the Phillies really want Halladay, doesn't a hard-line stance come with the risk of losing him to another team?
Absolutely. That's why this time of year is so intriguing. Because public comments must be measured against private ones, and the mysterious "sources" that leak information to various reporters must be determined to be valid or agenda-driven, and in many ways general managers are like the general public, not entirely sure of where reality lies. But, as they say, that's baseball. As much as we would like it to be black-and-white, it isn't.
So if they really want Halladay, and they don't get him, what happens then?
The same thing that would have happened had Halladay not been on the market. Keep in mind that, until the beginning of this week, the Blue Jays weren't believed to be actively pursuing a trade. There are other options out there. Keep in mind that the Phillies wanted C.C. Sabathia last year. Instead, they got Joe Blanton. And, as Amaro pointed out yesterday, there are an awful lot of ballplayers walking around Citizens Bank Park wearing rings that sure as hell didn't come from a Cracker Jack box.
So if the Phillies don't get Halladay. . .
There could be fringe consequences, both positive and negative. One thing the Phillies will surely consider is that St. Louis is considered a player. If they don't land Halladay, and St. Louis does, not only are the Phillies without the second top-of-the-rotation pitcher that it often takes to win in the postseason, but a potential playoff rival has one.
On the other hand, the Phillies stand to benefit from Halladay's availability, because it should diminish the asking price of other clubs who will be looking to move starters. If Dan Haren becomes available, Arizona will have one less suitor. And that trickles all the way down to the Jarrod Washburns of the world.
Supply and demand, baby. It's a beautiful thing.
Where can I get a copy of these magical "Prospect Rankings" that every major league team uses to determine value?
I'm glad you asked. There isn't one (Believe it or not, it didn't take years of covering baseball to figure that out). We are operating under the assumption that the Blue Jays value the Phillies' prospects the same way the Phillies value their own prospects. What if Jason Donald is the exact type of short stop prospect Toronto longs for? What if they don't even want Donald? What if they value Carlos Carrasco higher than Kyle Drabek? What if the Blue Jays covet Michael Taylor? What if they think Dominic Brown is vastly over-rated? What if they secretly want Gustavo Chacin back? There is a variety of evidence that suggests none of this is the case. But the fact is, the only people who really know how an organization evaluates talent is those in the organization.
Just something to keep in mind.
Did you really just spend two hours of a picturesque morning having an internal dialogue with yourself about a baseball trade?
Yes, but it's better than spending 48 hours locked in a press box dining room voting for Shane Victorino.
just came across this: a toronto radio station reported that the trade was already in place. The trade was Carlos Carrasco, Dominic Brown, Tony Bastardo and Lou Marson and possibly one reliever (carpenter/escalona/kendrick possibly).— fan_in_jerusalem- We wouldnt even be having these conversations if the Phillies brass had ponied up the bucks and signed a legitimate starter in the offseason. Vazquez, Lowe, Penny, Burnett were all free agents and we would've gotten to keep our prospects.— jayw66
- and halladay is way better then all of them combined— fan_in_jerusalem
- Do not trade Taylor or Drabek...3 weeks to go and what's the plan??? Get someone else as cheap as we can!!!— Guy Incognito
- but you dont need another ace, who is going to want 100 million dollars in a couple years. With this offense a 5 year 60 million top end of the rotation pitcher would be just fine. But dont get me wrong, i wont be complaining if we do get him, but our pitching problems could've been handled months ago— jayw66
- David Murphy....ye of the creepy picture at the top of your blog.....I don't understand much of what the hell you just BLOGGED......anyway.....Halladay is long term proven ace and we have a shot to getem and make 2-3-4 yr run with stacked lineup and two aces.....isn't it just that simple....LET ME TELL YA THAT GIVEN UP ANY OF THOSE JOKERS IS OK BY ME......ILUVRISKTAKERS!!!!!— ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
- J-roll,Utley,Howard,Ruiz,Hamels,Meyers and Happ are all products of the Phils farm system.Victorino was a rule 5 steal and Ibanez was signed when Burrell was allowed to walk.Pretty good result don't you think?Now the Phils have Drabek,Carrasco,Donald and Taylor.I say keep them and plug in a pitcher for the rest of this year.— homer2811
- Sure the Phils would trade Drabek for Halladay but that will never be offered. If the Phils trade Drabek and Donald that would be fine .. but Toronto wants more .. I'd throw you in the deal too.— sportsdead
- Sure the Phils would trade Drabek for Halladay but that will never be offered. If the Phils trade Drabek and Donald that would be fine .. but Toronto wants more .. I'd throw you in the deal too.— sportsdead
- Murp - Good piece. I think any trade for Halladay MUST include a contract extension, and I read that Riccardi will NOT grant time to a trade partner for such negotiations. If so, that should be a deal breaker or a least reduce the ask price to rent Halladay for a 1 and 1/2. But if Toronto agrees to a trade conditioned on a contact extension (till 2012), they should go for it with Drabek, Taylor, and a choice of Happ and a lower prospect infielder or Kendrick and a choice of Donald or Marson. And since we're having so much fun with this Murph, if the Phils can get the contract extension for Halladay, might they be able to package a different, bigger trade with the Blue Jays to mortgage less of the future? Just for fun say the Phils offer this trade: Carrasco, Taylor, Kendrick, Jayson Werth AND Jimmy Rollins (with the Phils picking up 1/2 of his $7.5 million in '10)for Halliday (with contract extension to 2012), Marco Scaruto (conditioned on him signing a 2 year deal) and Vernon Wells (with Toronto picking up his final $8.5 M signing bonus in '10 and $8 million each year of his remaining 4 years after 11 if he doesn't take his opt-out). I know this may seem far fetched, but that would help Toronto rebuild & shed big salaries; the Phils still get a pitching stud for at least 2 more runs at World Championship without mortaging all the farm. Giving up Rollins & Werth is a cost and Wells is a big payroll gamble, but he could put up BIG numbers hitting before Howard in CBP. I know blockbuster mid-season trades don't really happen anymore, but if we're going to go for another big brass ring, why not try a big bang trade??— jcovello
Comment removed.- I guess we can stop all the conjecture now that some Fan In Jerusalem listening to a Toronto radio has the scoop......and...I also guess the Blue Jays website doesn't want to post that info yet....— dirttracker
- Parkwood. This isn't fantasy baseball. And what's with everyone bashing werth. The guy can play. He bats 6th with a healthy IbaneZ and dude is on pace for 40/100. Really? The 'werthless' comments are ridiculous. He's a great 5th or 6th fiddle on ANY championship worthy squad.— ILL-UH-DEL
Just read that the Phils signed Pedro Martinez. Not a bad move. Obviously isn't the pitcher he used to be, but the guy is a competitor and will make an excellent fifth starter...oh, & SHANE IS AN ALL-STAR!!!- parkwood ... You're getting awfully excited about the idea of trading away one of your top pitching prosects along with "draft picks and ... a minor leaguer not named Drabek or Taylor" for a very modest upgrade in the lineup and a downgrade in the field. Werth and Holliday have put up very similar offensive numbers over the past two years (even though Werth has about 130 fewer ABs.) Werth has 43 homers, Holliday has 33. Werth has 119 RBI, Holliday has 131. Holliday had a better OPS last year (.947 to .861), Werth has a better OPS this year (.878 to .790). Werth is a better defensive player and will cost a lot less than Holliday next year. I don't think all those "wows" and exclamation points are justified. (A moot point anyway since you can't trade draft picks in baseball.)— GoPhilsGo
