Report Card Time: Grading the Offseason
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Report Card Time: Grading the Offseason
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The biggest thing I miss about report cards? The little comment footnotes that teachers could add to your grade:
1 Works well with others
2 Speaks in clear sentences
3 Eats too much play-dough
An entire marking period worth of homework and tests, summed up in four words pounded out by a secretary on a type-writer. Nothing could mar an A or A- like a little notation that said "Assignments incomplete" or "Talks too much in class." Here at the Daily News, we like to think we pay a little more individual attention. And while any offseason is ultimately judged on a Pass/Fail basis -- the moves a team made either led to a World Series or didn't -- here is a look at how we view the Phillies' '09-'10 thus far:
Rotation - B+
Getting Roy Halladay to agree to a three-year, $60 million was a major coup, and there is no question the Phillies somehow found away to upgrade the top of their rotation. But the move resulted in a net loss of organizational pitching depth, as the Phillies shipped Cliff Lee to Seattle and top prospect Kyle Drabek to Toronto. This leaves the Phillies an injury away from trouble, as the fifth spot in their rotation is already a question mark with injured veteran Jamie Moyer and righthander Kyle Kendrick the top two competitors for the job.
Amaro has said he would like to add more depth to the back of the rotation, and while there aren't a heck of a lot of reliable options out there, the Phillies made it more than two months last season relying on a combination of Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez to fill in for the injured Brett Myers.
Yankees righthander Chien Ming Wang is not a likely possibility. Veteran righthander Pedro Martinez is still an option, although the price would have to be right.
The addition of the Halladay move cannot be overstated. And, on paper, the Phillies received more upside in the package of prospects they obtained for Lee than the package of prospects they dealt (in the first Lee deal). As early as last spring training, club President David Montgomery was insisting that the Phillies were not in a position to adopt a business plan in the model of the Yankees, trading prospects for established talent and using free agency to make up for the resulting lack of organizational depth. That was evident this offseason, as the '09 World Champion Yankees swung a trade for Braves righthander Javier Vazquez, who will be paid $11 million and become a free agent after this season, adding to a rotation that already features high-priced (and, in the World Series, highly effective) starters C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. The Phillies, meanwhile, traded Lee away, banking on a rebound season by Cole Hamels and another solid campaign out of lefty J.A. Happ.
Look at it from this perspective: If the Phillies had traded for Halladay after 2008, when Hamels was coming off a dominant postseason, would anybody have been clamoring for them to trade even more prospects and add even more salary for Cliff Lee?
The Phillies still view Hamels as No. 1 starter, and think he and Halladay will provide a 1-2 punch this season that will prove the retention of Lee would have been a luxury, not a necessity.
Only time will tell. In trading both Lee and Drabek, the Phillies put a lot of faith in Hamels and Happ. If both players pitch up to their potential -- Hamels throwing like the World Series MVP he was in 2008 and Happ throwing like he did last season -- the front office will have some serious evidence in support of trading both Lee and Drabek. But if Hamels' struggles from last season continue, or if Happ encounters a sophomore slump, the Phillies could once again find themselves in need of starting pitching at the trade deadline.
Bullpen - B
Almost as important as the moves the Phillies made were the ones they didn't: They didn't overpay for Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney, and for little more than the estimated $3.5 million they were willing to pay Chan Ho Park they got both Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. While there are several question marks, the Phillies didn't really have a realistic chance of eliminating them with more than $15 million locked up to Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero. It would have been difficult to convince players like Mike Gonzalez and Jose Valverde to join a bullpen in which they would have entered the season as a distant No. 2 closer option behind Lidge. And, the fact remains, the Phillies owe Lidge more than $22 million over the next two years, and sparking a closer controversy would not have been a good way to get him back on track.
Although Contreras' numbers may not show it, he has the potential to be a huge addition to the bullpen. He has a big arm, with stuff that could play up as a reliever in a similar manner to Park's. And Baez improved throughout last season, his first since elbow surgery.
But the most significant addition might not be an addition at all - rather, it might be the Phillies' decision to keep a spot open for a young prospect like Antonio Bastardo, who has the stuff to be an impact major league reliever, and who has averaged more than 10 K/9 in the Dominican this winter.
Bench - B+
Ross Gload is an upgrade over Matt Stairs and Brian Schneider is an upgrade over Paul Bako. But one of the key weaknesses that was exposed in the World Series last season was bench production from the right side of the plate. And unless you count light-hitting utility man Juan Castro, the Phillies did not address it.
They could have used a player like Jerry Hairston, a right-handed bat who can play third or second or even short, rather than Gload, who is a good pinch-hitter and defensive first baseman and can play outfield, but who hits left-handed (like fellow reserve Greg Dobbs, who can also play first and the OF, and starting first baseman Ryan Howard).
But this is still an area that could be addressed in spring training or during the season. Dobbs, who performed much better as a starter than in a reserve role last season, could be an attractive trade option for a team who can give him a larger number of regular at-bats.
That said, overall, the bench is vastly improved over last season. Back-up catcher Brian Schneider will provide a steady veteran influence and capable bat, while OF Ben Francisco performed well in the second half of the regular season after joining the Phillies in the Lee trade.
Third Base - A-
The Phillies raised some eyebrows by giving a three-year deal to Placido Polanco. But there is no doubt he provides a much-needed contact bat for the top of the order, and his presence could drastically balance the identity of this power-heavy line-up. And all reports from Detroit are that he is a tremendous figure in the clubhouse.
Could the Phillies have waited and tried to get Mark DeRosa at cheaper rate or Adrian Beltre on a one-year deal? Sure, but I don't think they could have afforded to do so. Amaro found a player that he liked, knew what he was willing to pay for him, and when there was reciprocity, he struck.
Besides, I really think Polanco fits this Phillies line-up better than the other candidates.
Arbitration - A
The club achieved some much-needed cost-certainty for the next three seasons, during which time Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are both scheduled to become free agents. Francisco and Dobbs are the only two players with likely spots on the Opening Day roster who will be arbitration eligible next year. Happ won't reach arbitration until after 2011, while righthander Kyle Kendrick could be eligible for Super Two status after 2010 if he spends the entire year on the roster.
Overall - B+
They've upgraded their rotation, their line-up, and their bench, which by any measure spells success. Depth issues - on the right side of the plate and in the rotation - prevent this from being a perfect offseason. But even the more debatable decisions the Phillies made -- trading Lee, giving a third year to Polanco, signing Gload over other bench options -- came as a result of obvious roster upgrades.
unclecharlie: they should move anybody but Howard.
Carrasco, Donald, and Marson are utility players at best. We may not have gotten back much, but we didn't give up much either.— aj322- I don't want to move Howard - I just think he will hold out to become a free agent. I am just pointing out that there are ways they could have added prospects at the end of this season if they had held on to Lee.— unclecharlie
- 100 wins and a parade down broad street this year kids. Get ready fr it— ESFjellin
- MURPH, the best way to evaluate the moves, and this team is, at the end of the year, DID THEY WIN THE WORLD SERIES??? Anything less, is a diasappointment, ARE THEY AS GOOD AS THE YANKEES & THE RED SOX??? If they come up short, RUBEN will not live down TRADING CLIFF LEE— dfrancis1958
PhilliesSucker got it. This offseason has been a disaster. Rube gave up Cliff Lee(the best pitcher in baseball based on this past offseason) AND the Phils #2 #3 #4 rated prospects and they inexplicably did not significantly improve. They gave up 2 of the top 25 prospects in baseball AND Cliff Lee and somehow managed to move sideways.Unbelievable.... F - for Rube.Alot of GM's in baseball given Rubes stacked hand would have the pieces in place for the Phils third straight World Series Championship. As is they failed last year and will be underdogs this year.
Comment removed.- Cliff Lee— thejerz
- I am not sold on Polanco. It's nice that he is a contact hitter but he is not a high OBP guy by nature. If he hits .330 again then he will be great but I think those days are behind him. He doesn't walk enough to be a high OBP guy if he hits .280. He doesn't add power or speed at this stage and his defense at 3B is an unknown. We could have added Beltre or Tejada for less years and gotten more impact offensively. I think Polanco is more of a winner as a player than those guys but I am not sure he was worth the years the Phils committed to him.— unclecharlie
- Fonz, great work. And you comparison of the prospects dealt for Lee to the ones we received for him is spot on. By all accounts, Aumont and Gillies are top 100 prospects. You can't say the same for Marson, Donald, and even Carrasco at this point. So from that standpoint, not too shabby. We'll see. But you major omission in analyzing it like that is leaving out the NL Pennant won as a result of getting Lee. Let's be honest: without Lee, no NL Pennant last season. All in all, I liked the offseason. "Ayyyyyyy, sit on it!"— ThePassenger
What dfrancis1958 said. With Lee gone, is the Phillies' starting pitching strong enough to stand up to the BoSox or the Yanks? I don't see how you can compare Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ with Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Vasquez, or with Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Matsuzaka. The Yanks and Sox have four solid starters with substantial track records. The Phillies have Halladay and Blanton in the solid category, and Hamels and Happ as "maybes". Despite the clear lesson of the 2009 World Series, the Phillies stand to enter the 2010 Series (if they get there) with inferior pitching once again. I hope I'm wrong.- Murph, good analysis agree with everything you said except this: "This leaves the Phillies an injury away from trouble, as the fifth spot in their rotation is already a question mark with injured veteran Jamie Moyer and righthander Kyle Kendrick the top two competitors for the job." Drabek has never pitched above Double AA. It highly speculative and probably nothing more than a pipe dream to think that he would have made significant contributions to the major league rotation this year. The loss of Drabek hurts more in the long-term if the two pitcher we got from Seattle don't produce down the road. But penciling Drabek into the 5 spot in the rotation wasn't realistic. They are no closer or further away from being "an injury away from trouble" than they would have been with Drabek still around. Plus, last year's 5 starter at the beginning of the season was Park...we're much better off this season with the Moyer/Kendrick option for the 5th spot. Moyer was our #4 guy at the start of last season and now we're only counting on him to be our #5 guy.— JimG
- ok, to summarize...The Phillies, who won the world series 2 years ago and lost in 6 games in the 2009 world series to the best team in baseball last year, upgraded their bench, their bullpen, their lineup, and their starting pitching (I can't wait to see Halladay pitch a full year with this offense.— drjimmy
- Bring back the bat.— DirtyBirds
As risky as it may seem I would have traded Blanton, made the Halladay trade and kept Cliff Lee with the hope of re-signing him to the same deal as Roy Halladay $3/$60M.Cliff really seemed like he wanted hang around with this team and possibly could have been enticed to take a shorter term deal. Thats a hell of 1-2 combination for the next 4 years and you have Hamels in the mix too. Id hate to lose a Vic,Werth, maybe Polanco is never signed, but Id sacrafice a stick or two and take my chances with Halladay +Lee in OCt/Nov.— argonne
