Evaluating the Phillies' offseason
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Evaluating the Phillies' offseason
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Few of the decisions that the Phillies have made during this quickly-fading offseason should have come as a surprise. Ruben Amaro Jr.'s philosophy fit his track record: prioritize pitching and defense, strike early, and open the check book aggressively. Throughout the latter stages of the 2011 season, the Phillies did not try to hide the fact that they would prioritize the closer position, and their decision to hand a four-year, $50 million contract to Jonathan Papelbon reinforced the value they place on a veteran power arm at the back of the bullpen.
But the question remains: was giving a contract worth an average annual value of $12.5 million to a player who probably won't log more than 70 innings the right move?
Now that the vast majority of poker chips have been exchanged, we can look at the Papelbon contract in more definite terms, at least with regard to the opportunity costs for this season. We are operating under the assumption that the Phillies do not have unlimited resources, which means that every move they make comes at the expense of another move. In other words, when they decided to pay Papelbon $11 million, or roughly 6.2 percent of the payroll for 2012, they also decided not to spend that $11 million, or 6.2 percent, elsewhere.
When Papelbon signed, we spent plenty of ink and bandwidth examining what the Phillies gained. Now that we know how the free agent and trade markets unfolded, let's take a look at what they sacrificed, at least hypothetically.
After the Phillies' loss to the Cardinals in the NLDS, we identified the bullpen, short stop, left field and third base as the three positions the club needed to address. The Phillies ended up signing six players -- Papelbon, SS Jimmy Rollins, OF Laynce Nix, 1B/DH Jim Thome, LHP Dontrelle Willis and C Brian Schneider -- to contracts totaling $93.4 million over 12 years for an average annual value (AAV) of $7.8 million. They also traded for Ty Wigginton, who will earn $2 million from the club in 2012.
For the sake of this analysis, let's take Rollins and Schneider out of the equation and focus on the five new players and their price tags. We'll use AAV as the price tage (Papelbon will actually make $11 million this year and $13 in 2013-15:
Jonathan Papelbon: $12.5 million
Ty Wigginton: $2.0 million
Laynce Nix: $1.25 million
Jim Thome: $1.25 million
Dontrelle Willis: .850 million
The Phillies made two big philosophical decisions this offseason. The first was to dedicate a big chunk of payroll to a closer. The second was to supplement their existing options in left field and at third base with low-cost veterans rather than spending big on players who could replace the oft-injured Placido Polanco at third base or the inexperienced John Mayberry Jr. in left field.
When the Phillies bucked the recent national trend of bullpen austerity and announced the Papelbon deal, many pundits wondered whether they were ushering in a return to an era of big spending on relievers. But few other teams followed their lead. Rather than tying up large chunks of payroll space in one pitcher, most general managers opted to cobble together bullpens on the cheap.
Below are the relievers who were acquired either via free agency or trade this offseason:
Now, let's take a look at the third basemen and outfielder who were acquired:
For what the Phillies will pay Papelbon, they theoretically could have signed Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Or they could have signed Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. Or they could have signed Heath Bell and Dotel or Rauch or Fernando Rodney. Or they could have signed Jonathan Broxton, LaTroy Hawkins, Fernando Rodney and Takashi Saito while hoping at least two them would have a bounce-back year.
They also could have attempted to take the Boston Red Sox approach and fortify the bullpen by trading for young, cheap options. Swinging a deal for a Sergio Santos or an Andrew Bailey might have enabled them to make a play for a Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran or Aramis Ramirez or David DeJesus or Jason Kubel.
For what the Phillies will pay Papelbon, they theoretically could have signed Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Or they could have signed Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. Or they could have signed Heath Bell and Dotel or Rauch or Fernando Rodney. Or they could have signed Jonathan Broxton, LaTroy Hawkins, Fernando Rodney and Takashi Saito while hoping at least two them would have a bounce-back year.
They also could have attempted to take the Boston Red Sox approach and fortify the bullpen by trading for young, cheap options. Swinging a deal for a Sergio Santos or an Andrew Bailey might have enabled them to make a play for a Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran or Aramis Ramirez or David DeJesus or Jason Kubel.
Obviously, the free agent market is not like a grocery store, so there is no telling whether the Phillies would have been able to sign or trade for the aforementioned players at their aforementioned prices. And we won't know whether they made the optimal decisions until at least the end of 2012, and probably not until the final year of Papelbon's deal. Still, it is worth thinking about.
They definitely bought themselves as much certainty for 2012 as a team can hope for by signing Papelbon, whose track record is virtually unblemished. But in doing so, they took three big leaps of faith: one, that veteran Jose Contreras and young relievers Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo will provide enough depth behind their star closer; two, that John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix will provide enough offense in left field; three, that Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will be healthy and productive enough to justify their decision not to add another significant hitter to the mix.
- Clearly philly10 is not a Lee fan but putting his axe to grind aside, even philly10 would have to admit that he's not so blind that he doesn't see that the bats have been as impotent as philly10 on his wedding night these past two postseasons.
- zzzzzzzzzzz. phew. I've no idea what you said or why you wrote such indecipherable prose. yikes. enough already. please.— defg0003
- Dotel and Rauch are terrible and Capps is only so-so. We made the right move with Pap, but we could have saved money with Madsen. Its not the pitching I worry about.— yojiveself
- Incomplete pending an extension or not with Hamels. If signing Paps makes them unable to sign Hamels, that is money poorly spent.— willthethrill11
- Not a blow the house down off season despite the acquisition of Papelbon, which should not be undervalued... the AARP bench will add more power, but less speed and defense...I would have liked to see Erik Kratz have an opportunity to compete for a job as the backup cathcher, as well as witness Aramis Ramirez become a Phillie...Thinking that some of the core regulars rebound from subpar offensive seasons (for them) seems to be the thought process behind limited changes to the lineup....It will be great to see Hunter Pence play his first games in Clearwater.— bearsfriend
- Pretty decent comparisons in this article, actually. At the time Ruben signed Papelborn for $50 million, Boras was demanding at least $44 million for Madson. Six million over 4 years is not a major difference. If I'm in Amaro's shoes, and I've invested my career, basically, in Halladay and Lee (and hopefully Hamels), the last thing I want to do is take a Band-Aid flyer on a fragile closer like Joe Nathan (Texas) or trade for little-tested guys like Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon (Red Sox). Hey, if Bailey pitches like Papelbon did, brilliant move by Boston. But if he starts blowing saves in 2-1 games against the much-hated Yankees -- pressure he never faced in Oakland -- it could come crashing down in a hurry. Amaro made up his mind he wanted Papelbon or Madson; he wasn't confident in the others (I tend to agree). When the Madson negotiations went sour, he signed Papelbon. That's it.
— eman - Agree with eman. The Rangers can always stick Perez back in the closer's spot if Nathan doesn't work out, so they have a second option. The Phillies don't, and so needed the best guy available to close. That was clearly Papelbon. Not surprising he was expensive.— Dave Clemens
- I still want David Wright— cybersnake2
- Must be a slow news day. The one thing our fearless (clueless?) Mr. Murphy didn't tell you in his little ink waster of a story is that the quality of the other arms, except for, perhaps, Heath Bell, are quite poor compared to Papelbon. He's really not comparing apples to apples. He's only comparing dollars to dollars. So yes, the Phils could've signed a boat load of poor qulaity relievers for what they paid Papelbon, but then they would've had a boat load of poor relievers in the bullpen. As for Ramirez, well, he's 33 and a very poor fielder, whose hitting is on the decline. Three years at $12 mil for him would have been a real bad hire.— mike 1717
- Exactly how is Aramis Ramirez in decline as a hitter?...He's hit over .300 5 of the last 8 seasons, all with power. He has always hit "good pitching" and would have been an absolute boost to this lineup, especially in light of RH out...I also would love to see Davis Wright here eventually maybe of a deal can be struck, but the contract Rmirez got in Milwaukee was not outrageous, by any means...Hoepfully, Polly comes back healthy (no guarantee), but since May 1, HIS offense was truly in decline...By the way, David Murphy is the best baseball writer in the city, bar none. — bearsfriend
- Agree on Murphy — phillyl0
- On the hitters list you left out Hunter Pence, a significant omission.— realzoe
- They"re paying Papelbon what they paid Lidge the last 3 years and what the budgeted for a closer. The phils targeted the best closer on the market and got him. Move on.— fla
- The bottom line is Papelbon is not worth the money. As a lifelong Phillie fan living in New England I have no choice but to watch the Red Sox and root for whoever they're playing. I've watched Papelbon for years and believe me, he is overated. He's not reliable and when he starts blowing saves and hears the boos he will sulk. His slow pitching style is hard to watch and that little face he makes when looking in for the sign gets old fast. This was a huge mistake.— sumtime08
- fla - the point is that there is no separate "closer" budget. That may be the amount they are comfortable paying a closer, but if they spent less at closer they could use the leftover amount elsewhere. It does seem they may have overspent at closer - considering no one has signed Madson you have to wonder if they could have gotten either Papelbon or Madson for significantly less if they waited out the market.— Phils Phan 28
