Evaluating the Phillies' offseason
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Evaluating the Phillies' offseason
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Few of the decisions that the Phillies have made during this quickly-fading offseason should have come as a surprise. Ruben Amaro Jr.'s philosophy fit his track record: prioritize pitching and defense, strike early, and open the check book aggressively. Throughout the latter stages of the 2011 season, the Phillies did not try to hide the fact that they would prioritize the closer position, and their decision to hand a four-year, $50 million contract to Jonathan Papelbon reinforced the value they place on a veteran power arm at the back of the bullpen.
But the question remains: was giving a contract worth an average annual value of $12.5 million to a player who probably won't log more than 70 innings the right move?
Now that the vast majority of poker chips have been exchanged, we can look at the Papelbon contract in more definite terms, at least with regard to the opportunity costs for this season. We are operating under the assumption that the Phillies do not have unlimited resources, which means that every move they make comes at the expense of another move. In other words, when they decided to pay Papelbon $11 million, or roughly 6.2 percent of the payroll for 2012, they also decided not to spend that $11 million, or 6.2 percent, elsewhere.
When Papelbon signed, we spent plenty of ink and bandwidth examining what the Phillies gained. Now that we know how the free agent and trade markets unfolded, let's take a look at what they sacrificed, at least hypothetically.
After the Phillies' loss to the Cardinals in the NLDS, we identified the bullpen, short stop, left field and third base as the three positions the club needed to address. The Phillies ended up signing six players -- Papelbon, SS Jimmy Rollins, OF Laynce Nix, 1B/DH Jim Thome, LHP Dontrelle Willis and C Brian Schneider -- to contracts totaling $93.4 million over 12 years for an average annual value (AAV) of $7.8 million. They also traded for Ty Wigginton, who will earn $2 million from the club in 2012.
For the sake of this analysis, let's take Rollins and Schneider out of the equation and focus on the five new players and their price tags. We'll use AAV as the price tage (Papelbon will actually make $11 million this year and $13 in 2013-15:
Jonathan Papelbon: $12.5 million
Ty Wigginton: $2.0 million
Laynce Nix: $1.25 million
Jim Thome: $1.25 million
Dontrelle Willis: .850 million
The Phillies made two big philosophical decisions this offseason. The first was to dedicate a big chunk of payroll to a closer. The second was to supplement their existing options in left field and at third base with low-cost veterans rather than spending big on players who could replace the oft-injured Placido Polanco at third base or the inexperienced John Mayberry Jr. in left field.
When the Phillies bucked the recent national trend of bullpen austerity and announced the Papelbon deal, many pundits wondered whether they were ushering in a return to an era of big spending on relievers. But few other teams followed their lead. Rather than tying up large chunks of payroll space in one pitcher, most general managers opted to cobble together bullpens on the cheap.
Below are the relievers who were acquired either via free agency or trade this offseason:
Now, let's take a look at the third basemen and outfielder who were acquired:
For what the Phillies will pay Papelbon, they theoretically could have signed Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Or they could have signed Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. Or they could have signed Heath Bell and Dotel or Rauch or Fernando Rodney. Or they could have signed Jonathan Broxton, LaTroy Hawkins, Fernando Rodney and Takashi Saito while hoping at least two them would have a bounce-back year.
They also could have attempted to take the Boston Red Sox approach and fortify the bullpen by trading for young, cheap options. Swinging a deal for a Sergio Santos or an Andrew Bailey might have enabled them to make a play for a Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran or Aramis Ramirez or David DeJesus or Jason Kubel.
For what the Phillies will pay Papelbon, they theoretically could have signed Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Or they could have signed Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. Or they could have signed Heath Bell and Dotel or Rauch or Fernando Rodney. Or they could have signed Jonathan Broxton, LaTroy Hawkins, Fernando Rodney and Takashi Saito while hoping at least two them would have a bounce-back year.
They also could have attempted to take the Boston Red Sox approach and fortify the bullpen by trading for young, cheap options. Swinging a deal for a Sergio Santos or an Andrew Bailey might have enabled them to make a play for a Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran or Aramis Ramirez or David DeJesus or Jason Kubel.
Obviously, the free agent market is not like a grocery store, so there is no telling whether the Phillies would have been able to sign or trade for the aforementioned players at their aforementioned prices. And we won't know whether they made the optimal decisions until at least the end of 2012, and probably not until the final year of Papelbon's deal. Still, it is worth thinking about.
They definitely bought themselves as much certainty for 2012 as a team can hope for by signing Papelbon, whose track record is virtually unblemished. But in doing so, they took three big leaps of faith: one, that veteran Jose Contreras and young relievers Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo will provide enough depth behind their star closer; two, that John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix will provide enough offense in left field; three, that Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will be healthy and productive enough to justify their decision not to add another significant hitter to the mix.
Its hard to improve upon the best record in baseball's regular season. 102 wins is not a slight accomplishment. What needs to happen besides health for Howard/Utley/Polanco/Rollins is that come playoff time (assuming the Phillies get into the playoffs), Halladay and Hamels are NOT the only playoff type pitchers put on the mound. Cliff Lee HAS to pitch like the ACE he is being paid to be. Simple as that. If they three of them combine to pitch like the ACES they are, we are not having any of these chats on these message boards.— drhoffman- Some interesting stats but not one of your better efforts, Murph.— PhillySubsMac
- sumtime - the stats say Papelbon has been quite excellent. They don't, however, break down the results based on sulkiness, and there is no category at all related to facial expressions. You could be on to something here.— Phils Phan 28
- im a big fan of reuben but he did nothing to improve this team so what we got papelbon madson was the same person so theres a wash we got nothing but bench players.............come on rueben get david wright and then plan ur parade— terhet034
- The performance of the off-season has to be compared against the teams needs. The Phils got booted out of the playoffs for two years in a row - not because of pitching inadequacies - but because of an inability to create runs. They further bolstered their pitching, but did nothing to develop an offense that can consistently produce runs against top of the line pitchers which are routinely faced during the playoffs. Actually they have gone backwards in that area, as their core offensive players are another year older.— Bobphxville
- Forget the stats-Take it from somone who has actually watched this guy for years-the Phillies should have signed Madson over Papelbon. He's just a better pitcher who is getting better. Papelbon is on a definite decline.You'll remember this post come spring.— sumtime08
- Papelbon has the experience and the success...He IS considered the prize of the closers...The key to his acquisition for the lifetime of the deal is that his rising power fastball continues to crack mitts...The promising aspect for Madson as an acquisiton, despite his lack of long term closer experience, is the fact that Madson should age gracefully as his arm slot for his changeup is almost identical to his fastball...just truly impressive...In Philly we did receive World Series winning season perfection from Brad Lidge, only to see true decline as age crept into the picture, but the Phillies are planning with Halladay,Lee,Hamels,Worley to go at it again this year!..Time will tell....For now, I can't wait until Papelbon comes out onto the field..Rock on! — bearsfriend
- in the end, could have spent less on Papelbon probably, but we were spending that on Lidge the last couple years. Since they got Nix, Thome seems like a waste of a roster spot that could have been used on another player who would give more flexibility. Would really like to hear Amaro's reasons for staying clear of A-Ram, was it injuries, attitude or just dollars? i still dont see another team in the NL thats an odds on favorite for the NL crown, do you? we've got as good a shot as anyone. lets get it done before ATL/WASH catch us.— jim715
Comment removed.- Hindsight is 20/20 but signing Papelbon is looking like a mistake when it now appears that Madson could have been had for much cheaper since he is still unsigned with no real options left to sign a big contract. They could have held out and signed Madson for cheaper and spent that money saved on improving third base or left field. There is not much difference between Papelbon and Madson, certaintly not based on what the two will ultimately be paid on their new contracts.
— Dave Cash - Ridiculous. What if while the Phils were holding out on Madson, the Red Sox resigned Papelbon, the Marlins signed Bell, the White Sox decided not to trade Santos and the Blue Jays signed Madson. The Phils would have had to pick from between Matt Capps, Frank Francisco and Houston Street. The market for closers developed the way it did, in part, BECAUSE the Phillies signed Papelbon. You can't just assume that everything would have worked out in their favor if they had decided not to do that. The Phils have an aggressive GM. He's never going to be the one looking for a chair when the music stops. — phillyl0
- january wankery. send some of the millions those overpaid pampered galoots are getting down to haiti, build a bunch of clean houses and clinics.— bubba church & granny hamner
- Murph, since you didn't actually grade the offseason, I will: C-. Reasons: 1)Instead of young/cheap options for bench and position flexibility, RAJ went for old/cheap options; 2) "leap of faith" is an understatement regarding the health and potential improved productivity of the infield starters over last year; 3) Papelbon may be a marginal improvement over Madson, but he is a fly ball pitcher (watched his last effort against Baltimore when the Red Sox choked on MLB Network; everything was up and he got smoked); 4) everyone is 1 year older; and 5) I doubt RAJ made things any easier with Hamels by not even paying lip service to his contract. I can't wait for the season so I can be proven totally wrong about all of this.— ijj
- Hey, the Eagles paid the loser Vick over $20 million this season.....and Vick did not even make the stinkin' playoff..LOL...I'm sure that they could have been the same 8-8 and no playoffs with Young as the starting QB and would have saved $15 million this season that they could have used on better defensive players.— frank105
- Poor Ruben. His off season is still incomplete. He knows he needs to add a quality right handed set up eight inning guy yet but he still has 40 days and 40 nights until pitchers and catchers report. Looks like he can get Lidge back on the cheap.— Dull
