Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
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Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Let's face it - the Cole Hamels situation is relatively straight forward. You cannot look at his performance over the past five seasons and the free agent market over the past few offseasons and not conclude that he is worth at least $20 million per year of six years on the open market. He is an elite pitcher, and he has every reason to expect that he will be paid like one. The decision is a philosophical one -- how much money is a team willing to commit to a position that can see a career end with one shoulder injury?
Shane Victorino is another story. His career is like an ink blot -- you can see what you want. The only center fielders with a higher OPS over the last three seasons are Matt Kemp (.863), Curtis Granderson (.831), Jacoby Ellsbury (.830), Andrew McCutchen (.822) and Torii Hunter (.815). Victorino checks in with an .800.
As we noted in today's column, Victorino showed last year that he has the potential of producing a huge walk-year performance.
After the 2007 season, Torii Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels. In the three seasons leading up to his free agency, Hunter hit .279/.335/.487 with 73 home runs and 53 stolen bases. Compare those numbers to the ones Victorino has posted over the last three seasons: .277/.347/.454, 45 home runs, 78 stolen bases. Victorino will be entering his 32-year-old season when he hits free agency, the same age Hunter was when he signed his monster deal. While Hunter's production slipped last season, he still has a solid .279/.349/.465 line with averages of 22 home runs and 13 steals in the first four years of the deal.
Granderson, meanwhile, has a $13 million option for 2013 that is almost certain to be exercised by the Yankees. He too will be entering his 32-year-old season.
Ellsbury and McCutchen are both rising stars who would stray more to the Matt Kemp end of the spectrum than Hunter and Granderson.
Which brings us to Victorino, and the question of where he belongs in the hierarchy of center fielders. Is he in the class of the five players above him in OPS? Does he deserve to be paid like a centerpiece player?
1) What is the minimum the Phillies should expect to pay?
The absolute minimum would have to be a contract similar to the three-year, $31.5 million deal that the Rockies gave Michael Cuddyer this offseason.
The comparison over the last three years:
Cuddyer: .276/.341/.465, 66 HRs, 24 SBs
Victorino: .277/.347/.454, 45 HRs, 78 SBs
The key difference is that Victorino plays a premium defensive position.
2) What is the maximum the Phillies should expect to pay?
Kemp is in a class all by himself, so throw him out. Next up is Carl Crawford, who signed a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox heading into his 30-year-old season. The numbers over the three years leading up to his free agency:
Crawford: .297/.349/.454, 42 HRs, 132 SBs
Similar power, similar on base, better contact and more steals.
By the numbers, the best comparison is Hunter. But Hunter signed his contract after the 2007 season, so it is tough to use him as a market comparison.
3) Making some sense. . .
If I'm Victorino, I am making the case that I am worth a five-year deal, which would run through my 36-year-old season. Thirty-six appears to be the age at which most teams are comfortable guaranteeing money. The Tigers signed Prince Fielder through the age of 36. The Yankees did the same with Teixeira. Carl Crawford? 36. Jason Bay? 36. Ryan Howard? 36. Matt Holliday and Jayson Werth both signed beyond their 36-year-old seasons.
The target Average Annual Value is where things become open to interpretation. Minimum, I would think, is the $13 million that the Yankees are likely to pay Granderson. Maximum, I would think, is the $18 million per season that the Angels paid Hunter.
Victorino and Michael Bourn will be the top two center fielders on the market. But center field is a position that is in demand. Victorino can also play right field. And he has the skill set of a lead-off hitter. Among the teams that could be looking for that type of player? The Yankees, for one. The Nationals, for another. Perhaps the Marlins. If you are the Phillies, you have to anticipate that there will be a significant market for Victorino, barring an injury or a down season.
If you take the mid-point of Granderson and Hunter you get $15.5 million salary.
Is Victorino worth a five-year, $77.5 million deal? What if he was willing to sign right now for five years and $65 million, which would mean an AAV of $13 million per year?
Assuming it takes an AAV of about $20 million to sign Hamels, a five-year, $65 million deal for Victorino would leave the Phillies with $144 million committed to 10 players for 2013. That doesn't include an arbitration raise for Hunter Pence that will likely be at least $13 million. So that is $157 million for 11 players. Carlos Ruiz's $5 million option? $162 million for 12 players while still needing a third baseman. It is certainly workable, particularly if the Phillies can back Jonathan Papelbon up with six relievers who are all earning close to the veteran minimum. As we have pointed out before, going over the luxury tax is not exactly detrimental for a big market club.
The options for replacing Victorino are hardly plentiful. Maybe John Mayberry Jr. has a big year and emerges as an option. Bourn is the only player similar to Victorino available on the free agent market (B.J. Upton is probably the third-biggest name behind those two).
The worst-case scenario, at least fiscally, is Mayberry failing to establish himself as an everyday player and Victorino having a huge season. At that point, the free agent market could easily view Victorino as an $18-million-per-year player, leaving the Phillies with a very expensive decision to make: Let Victorino walk and enter 2013 with big question marks in 2/3rds of their outfield, or pay a premium price.
I know this will come as a shock to most Phils fans, but you don't have to have 3 aces to have a WS winning pitching staff. We won in 2008 with one ace, and the cards with Carpender and Rangers with Wilson managed very well with one ace staffs. You need a solid 2, 3, and 4, and a very good bullpen behind them. And you need a lineup that can produce some runs in the postseason. The point is, we can live without Hamels, and use his 120 million to fill in a few other holes.— blaqjaq- I think Victorino walks unless he signs for less than market. His lack of effort caused the only run to score in that final game of the vs the Cards... He won't get paid here.— Mo Biggsley
- Numbers talk; Vic will end up with 13 - 15 mil a year for 5 years; here or elsewhere.— JBinPA
- @warbiscuit; do we have another year of your one trick pony act? It's old; we know, you don't think this team ever does ANYTHING right! Ok, we know it, you know we know it so get a new trick!— JBinPA
- so how much is Bourn going to cost? how many years and what will the average salary be? might be a cheaper option that won't cost us in productivity— jeff gross
- warbiscuit is the reincarnated lonewolf. Just about everything he has to say is "clueless", to borrow a phrase. Please pick a new club to ridicule. Most of those of us on the Phillies fan base are VERY tired of your diatribe. Phillies management is doing, an will continue to do, whatever they feel is best for the club. That's what they are paid for and if the Owner, who by the way is footing the bill, is happy, then just shut up or find a new format. Change the channel, clown— billroc35
- I occasionally like warbiscuit's comments, just like I occasionally like reading a Weekly World News mag in the supermarket check out line. And I take her/his comments just as seriously as I do those articles. I'd be much happier though, if she/he worked in a sasquatch comment or two, as the image of a sasquatch in a Phillies uniform would amuse me even more than her/his negative diatribes. — raboo
- Not sure when baseball fans, and sports fans in general, are going to finally get it, that sports have become a major part of the entertainment industry. Movie star earnings dwarf those of even the highest paid ballplayers. The star of "Mask" was paid $20 mil and even gets royalties every time the movie is shown. He is not alone, either. The list of $20 million salaries for single movies continues to climb. Ballplayers can not replay their best effort from yesterday. They need to go out and do it again, and again, and again, etc. With the Phillies about to enter into, what has been reported as a $5 billion TV deal in the next several years, look for them, along with several other teams, to pay whatever they need to in order to field the best possible team. Exceeding the salary limits will be of no consequence for an owner whi is determined to own a World Series Championship trophy. Folks, we are on the cusp of a new era in which ballplayers' salaries are going to make the current scale look cheap.— billroc35
- 2012 will be big years for minor league outfielders in the organization like Tyson Gillies, Jiwan James and Derrick Mitchell to see if they are major league prospects to replace Victorino. They all can play a major league center field now and would be cheap. Last year Victorino in 137 games including the NLDS had 63 RBIs, 17 home runs and 19 stolen bases. For comparison purposes in 2011 Mitchell playing in 150 games as a AA centerfielder in the regular season, post season and briefly in Venezuela had 88 RBIs, 21 home runs and 22 stolen bases.— Dull
- I'd sooner sign Michael Bourn than Victorino if both test agency, particularly is Shane is looking for any more than three years.— PhightinPhil
- The way i would like to see it fall would be for John Mayberry to come through then they could sing Victorino and moved Pence at a price that would return plenty. Platoning one outfeild spot somtimes works well for the team doing it. Broen could come through also but we would be able ogo with that option— pjm0825
- Was this article written under the influence of narcotics? MAX for Victorino on the open market is 13 million a year. He most likely signs for 5 years 58-60 million.— UncleStosh
- Hopefully on another team because I wouldn't give him anything more than 4 years at 10 per and I'd still be looking to swap out for cheaper first. i also think the 6 years for Hamels is nuts. he has been an injury risk since he was 18 years old and has shown that he falls off the cliff if his velocity dips below 90mph. You could wake up and have an 88mph Cole Hamels(like a couple of seasons ago) getting hammered for 20 million a year. Much better play to buy a 20 million a year bat. If he will sign a 4 year deal with a vesting option go for it. — UncleStosh
- Hey, yeah, ideally Mayberry moves to center in 2013, Dom Brown in left, we sign a suddenly healthy David Wright at 3B and keep Hamels. Oh, and Brown and Mayberry are outright studs. Ideally.— eman
- Victorino rated 2nd best CF by managers and coaches behind Bourn two years running.— Don w
