Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
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Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Let's face it - the Cole Hamels situation is relatively straight forward. You cannot look at his performance over the past five seasons and the free agent market over the past few offseasons and not conclude that he is worth at least $20 million per year of six years on the open market. He is an elite pitcher, and he has every reason to expect that he will be paid like one. The decision is a philosophical one -- how much money is a team willing to commit to a position that can see a career end with one shoulder injury?
Shane Victorino is another story. His career is like an ink blot -- you can see what you want. The only center fielders with a higher OPS over the last three seasons are Matt Kemp (.863), Curtis Granderson (.831), Jacoby Ellsbury (.830), Andrew McCutchen (.822) and Torii Hunter (.815). Victorino checks in with an .800.
As we noted in today's column, Victorino showed last year that he has the potential of producing a huge walk-year performance.
After the 2007 season, Torii Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels. In the three seasons leading up to his free agency, Hunter hit .279/.335/.487 with 73 home runs and 53 stolen bases. Compare those numbers to the ones Victorino has posted over the last three seasons: .277/.347/.454, 45 home runs, 78 stolen bases. Victorino will be entering his 32-year-old season when he hits free agency, the same age Hunter was when he signed his monster deal. While Hunter's production slipped last season, he still has a solid .279/.349/.465 line with averages of 22 home runs and 13 steals in the first four years of the deal.
Granderson, meanwhile, has a $13 million option for 2013 that is almost certain to be exercised by the Yankees. He too will be entering his 32-year-old season.
Ellsbury and McCutchen are both rising stars who would stray more to the Matt Kemp end of the spectrum than Hunter and Granderson.
Which brings us to Victorino, and the question of where he belongs in the hierarchy of center fielders. Is he in the class of the five players above him in OPS? Does he deserve to be paid like a centerpiece player?
1) What is the minimum the Phillies should expect to pay?
The absolute minimum would have to be a contract similar to the three-year, $31.5 million deal that the Rockies gave Michael Cuddyer this offseason.
The comparison over the last three years:
Cuddyer: .276/.341/.465, 66 HRs, 24 SBs
Victorino: .277/.347/.454, 45 HRs, 78 SBs
The key difference is that Victorino plays a premium defensive position.
2) What is the maximum the Phillies should expect to pay?
Kemp is in a class all by himself, so throw him out. Next up is Carl Crawford, who signed a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox heading into his 30-year-old season. The numbers over the three years leading up to his free agency:
Crawford: .297/.349/.454, 42 HRs, 132 SBs
Similar power, similar on base, better contact and more steals.
By the numbers, the best comparison is Hunter. But Hunter signed his contract after the 2007 season, so it is tough to use him as a market comparison.
3) Making some sense. . .
If I'm Victorino, I am making the case that I am worth a five-year deal, which would run through my 36-year-old season. Thirty-six appears to be the age at which most teams are comfortable guaranteeing money. The Tigers signed Prince Fielder through the age of 36. The Yankees did the same with Teixeira. Carl Crawford? 36. Jason Bay? 36. Ryan Howard? 36. Matt Holliday and Jayson Werth both signed beyond their 36-year-old seasons.
The target Average Annual Value is where things become open to interpretation. Minimum, I would think, is the $13 million that the Yankees are likely to pay Granderson. Maximum, I would think, is the $18 million per season that the Angels paid Hunter.
Victorino and Michael Bourn will be the top two center fielders on the market. But center field is a position that is in demand. Victorino can also play right field. And he has the skill set of a lead-off hitter. Among the teams that could be looking for that type of player? The Yankees, for one. The Nationals, for another. Perhaps the Marlins. If you are the Phillies, you have to anticipate that there will be a significant market for Victorino, barring an injury or a down season.
If you take the mid-point of Granderson and Hunter you get $15.5 million salary.
Is Victorino worth a five-year, $77.5 million deal? What if he was willing to sign right now for five years and $65 million, which would mean an AAV of $13 million per year?
Assuming it takes an AAV of about $20 million to sign Hamels, a five-year, $65 million deal for Victorino would leave the Phillies with $144 million committed to 10 players for 2013. That doesn't include an arbitration raise for Hunter Pence that will likely be at least $13 million. So that is $157 million for 11 players. Carlos Ruiz's $5 million option? $162 million for 12 players while still needing a third baseman. It is certainly workable, particularly if the Phillies can back Jonathan Papelbon up with six relievers who are all earning close to the veteran minimum. As we have pointed out before, going over the luxury tax is not exactly detrimental for a big market club.
The options for replacing Victorino are hardly plentiful. Maybe John Mayberry Jr. has a big year and emerges as an option. Bourn is the only player similar to Victorino available on the free agent market (B.J. Upton is probably the third-biggest name behind those two).
The worst-case scenario, at least fiscally, is Mayberry failing to establish himself as an everyday player and Victorino having a huge season. At that point, the free agent market could easily view Victorino as an $18-million-per-year player, leaving the Phillies with a very expensive decision to make: Let Victorino walk and enter 2013 with big question marks in 2/3rds of their outfield, or pay a premium price.
Victorino not only gives you GG defense in CF, but is also a very versatile player that you can use also in RF and in almost any position in the BA order, especially at the leadoff spot if something happens to Rollins.— EL Zorro- Thanks Murphy for being the first of the beat writers to not think of Victorino as an afterthought. Out of the known commodity position players, he is the one most likely to have MVP caliber ball in front of him and the one who has shown the most continual improvement in his game-- improvement over the course of a career is something I was glad to see Schmitty highlight and something that takes work. The Phillies have too much money tied up in guys who became satisfied with their games 5 years ago. They need to pay the guys who have been working at it and getting better like Hamels and Victorino.— jtj10
- Its unfortunate but at some point the "free spending" will come to an end and the Phillies will be forced to either trade a player like SV or allow him to walk via free agency....its just a fact of life. I see the Phillies making a blockbuster type deal over the next 12 months to help free up money....allow them to build up the farm....and give them more flexibilty to sign some of their younger players long term....they will still be in that 150-180 million area but in a better way.....I think Victorino-Rollins-Lee-Howard-Utley....one or 2 will be gone especially if Mayberry/Brown become legit and any of the "baby aces" explodes.....— bbrady25
- Love Victorino and hope he stays, but sure what his sticker price will be. I would think a 4 yr/44 million deal w/a vesting option for a 5th yr if he wants to stay would get it done, but all it takes is one team to drive the price waaaaay up if he hits the FA market.
Wouldn't mind seeing Bourn back in the red pinstripes if he does walk...— Colonel Angus - Totally disagree! They should be looking to deal him now for a younger more affordable CF and change or let him walk for the draft picks. He's another aging player who's declining before our eyes. Also, never exactly an ironman, his injuries will start to be a problem.— JodyMac
- Totally disagree! They should be looking to deal him now for a younger more affordable CF and change or let him walk for the draft picks. He's another aging player who's declining before our eyes. Also, never exactly an ironman, his injuries will start to be a problem.— JodyMac
- that $50 mil. wasted on Papelbon looks stupider by the day -- add it to the $125 mil. wasted on a seriously-injured rapidly-declining should-be platooning 1st baseman, the $33 mil deal extended to a good-field no-longer-hitting shortstop, the $24 mil. thrown away on a 5th starter, the $7.5 mil. just wasted on a spot-starter, and all the cheap prospects traded away, and soon you realize that the clueless rube's moves will have stymied the Phils ability to retain 2 of their best core players _Hamels and Victorino -- and remain an elite team -- after these guys leave --and after Halladay and Lee start to decline, the Phils will be left with a very mediocre bunch of declining players...— warbiscuit
- I have an idea.
Instead of playing the same character, that of Monday morning quarterback, why don't you explain what the organization, namely Rube, should do rather than consistently critiquing what he has done after the fact.
Ah, but that would probably be too hard, wouldn't it? It would actually involve using that useless mass between your ears. It is far easier for you to wait for someone else to make the decisions, and then for you to criticize when you deem them to be faulty.— PhightinPhil - Ahhhh, finally reached the warbiscuit post on this thread. The Weekly World News of Phillies commentary, that most of us take it as seriously as the WWN. Maybe you should work in a comment about the Phillies signing a Sasquatch to be their new power hitter, as they can probably pay them in roadkill (assuming sasquatches are not vegetarian) and thus keep the Phils under the salary cap. — raboo
- AXHole33, read my post again, you dope. I didn't say let him walk. I said, with 2 aces under contract, which btw, were in the top 3 in the CY running last year, the emergence of Worley and our Baby Aces developing nicely, it wouldn't be the end of the work if we don't resign Hamels. Learn to read.— EL Zorro
- Weren't Brandon Duckworth, Tyler Green, and Pat Combs also "Baby Aces"? — mwcnabb
- WORLEY DOESN'T EVEN COME CLOSE TO HOLDING A TORCH TO HAMELS. AND IT IS THE "END OF THE WORLD" NOT "WORK"! YOU IDIOT!!!!!!!!! — AXP33
- I led the cheer for Pence, I love it when I'm right. Keep Shane in center and hopefully Mayberry in left will pay off. Gives us a top notch outfield for at least a few more years. Just sign him and worry about a position we have needed to upgrade since MJS left...— TexasYankee
- In short, the Phils are screwed in the not too distant future. Their payroll has no where to go but up because you clowns want to sign everyone available. Face it, they cannot continue to do business this way. It is the way of the American economy, and that's why we are all screwed. OVER SPEND SPEND SPEND— kozykoz26
