Not a lot of Plan Bs behind Madson
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Not a lot of Plan Bs behind Madson
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In hindsight, last offseason might have been the time to sign a reliever or two with the hope of avoiding the current do-or-die scenario that might face the Phillies.
For the annual salary that the Phillies are reportedly thinking about bestowing upon Ryan Madson, they could have signed J.J. Putz and Scott Downs, or Joaquin Benoit and Jason Frasor. They would even have some money to spare. Last offseason turned out to be a surprisingly cost-effective one for teams adding bullpen arms. Unlike 2011, there weren't three dominant back-of-the-bullpen arms available. But there were a slew of veteran relievers with good strikeout rates who ended up signing modest deals. Joaquin Benoit was coming off one healthy season, so a lot of people raised their eyebrows when the Tigers gave him a three-year, $16.5 million deal. But he ended up giving them the type of production that is comparable to what the Phillies and other teams could be paying double-digit AAVs for guys like Madson, Jonathan Papelbon or even Francisco Rodriguez: 61 innings, a 2.95 ERA, 63 strikeouts, 17 walks, five home runs and 29 holds with only two blown saves.
More examples:
Scott Downs: 53.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, .483 OPS vs. LHB
Jesse Crain: 65.1 IP, 2.62 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
J.J. Putz: 58.0 IP, 2.17 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 45 saves
Grant Balfour: 62.0 IP, 2.47 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
Jason Frasor: 42.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Kyle Farnsworth: 57.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 25 saves
None of the above six relievers signed for more than $15 million total or $5.25 million per season. Granted, we are only talking about the first year of a contract for those who signed multi-year deals (everybody except Farnsworth). But most of them only need to give you another half a season of similar results before their production is on par with the numbers you would hope for out of the guys who could be getting paid $11 million per year this offseason.
There were some busts. The Red Sox took a chance on Bobby Jenks and he went down with another injury. Pedro Feliciano never pitched for the Yankees after signing a two-year, $8 million deal, but his workload was a big concern for the teams who shied away.
All in all, it turned out to be a good year for teams looking to add solid arms without breaking the bank.
This year? I'm not sure there are many options beyond Madson and Papelbon. Rodriguez's successful but incident-marred tenure in New York will make teams think twice, while Heath Bell seems intent on staying in San Diego.
Sure, there are plenty of recognizeable names out there. But most of them are recognizeable because of their save totals. And the save is not a very accurate barometer of a pitcher's actual (and potential future) performance.
Here is a look at the so-called "closers" on the market:
See anything that excites you? All you really need to do is look at the strikeout rates. If a guy is going to be a first or second option in your bullpen, he better have swing-and-miss stuff.
At the right price, Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Francisco Cordero are the three guys you would probably be most comfortable with. But all three have enough holes that you would be taking a huge gamble entering the season relying on them in the eighth or ninth.
Nathan is a name that has been mentioned a lot, and there is some upside there. He struggled early in the season after coming back from Tommy John surgery. But after a month-long stint on the disabled list, he posted a 3.38 ERA with 28 strikeouts and five walks in 29 1/3 innings in his final 31 appearances of the season. While FanGraphs will tell you that his velocity dropped significantly, he was hitting 93 consistently and touching 94 in three games that I looked at later in the season.
But Nathan only pitched on back-to-back days three times during that 31-game stretch to end the season, and he pitched on three straight days once. As you can see in the chart above, he has a worse groundball rate than any other pitcher on the list besides Jon Rauch. And, of course, he will be 37 years old next season. He'd be a great arm to add to the mix, but I don't know that I would be comfortable heading into the season with him and Antonio Bastardo as my clear-cut 1-2 in the eighth and ninth.
Cordero doesn't have the fastball he used to, so he doesn't get guys to swing and miss like he used to. But he is a veteran who has had consistent success. Capps' performance ebbs and flows with his slider command. Last year it ebbed, which is probably the reason he did not get the strikeouts he usually does.
The problem is, there is a good chance that with enough teams looking for cut-rate closers, the cut-rate for these guys will make them inefficient additions to the payroll.
Qualls doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff, plus he posted a 5.05 ERA away from the spacious Petco Park last season. Cross Mike MacDougal off your list: the last thing you want in the back of your bullpen is a guy who walks a ton of batters and can't compensate by striking them out at a high rate, regardless of his ERA and groundball rate.
So let's look at the next tier....
| Last | Tm | Age | BAbip | IP | ERA | SO/9 | BB/9 | SO/BB | Str% | S/Str | GB/FB | HR/9 | LD% | XBH% | X/H% |
| Dotel | TOR | 37 | .208 | 29.1 | 3.68 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | .660 | .180 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 13% | .066 | .400 |
| Mota | SFG | 37 | .289 | 80.1 | 3.81 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 2.57 | .610 | .200 | 0.68 | 1.1 | 20% | .066 | .310 |
| Coffey | WSN | 30 | .287 | 59.2 | 3.62 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | .620 | .160 | 0.74 | 0.6 | 20% | .063 | .290 |
| Wheeler | BOS | 33 | .274 | 49.1 | 4.38 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 4.88 | .680 | .140 | 0.48 | 1.3 | 18% | .095 | .400 |
| Rodney | LAA | 34 | .281 | 32.0 | 4.50 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 0.93 | .580 | .150 | 1.34 | 0.3 | 18% | .033 | .190 |
| Wuertz | OAK | 32 | .337 | 33.2 | 6.68 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 1.23 | .570 | .240 | 0.78 | 1.3 | 21% | .086 | .380 |
| Igarashi | NYM | 32 | .366 | 38.2 | 4.66 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 1.5 | .590 | .180 | 0.87 | 0.5 | 21% | .074 | .330 |
| Cruz | TBR | 32 | .256 | 48.2 | 3.88 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 1.64 | .600 | .150 | 0.56 | 0.9 | 13% | .060 | .330 |
Cruz's ERA looks OK, but he rarely pitched in meaningful situations, plus he walked a lot of guys and gave up a lot of fly balls. Igarashi was a bust during his two seasons in New York. Rodney has missed too much time due to injury in his career to be counted on, plus he lost his command and his manager's trust after returning from a month-and-a-half stint on the DL with a back strain. Wheeler was a very reliable reliever during his career with the Rays, but the fact that the Red Sox did not pick up his option should tell you something. Good organizations usually know their own players the best. He also had an issue with a forearm strain. The once-dominant Wuertz was released by the A's after two subpar seasons in which he could never seem to get over hand/wrist injuries. Dotel and Mota just keep on ticking, but they aren't going to keep fire-balling until they are 50. Dotel especially would be a solid option to have. But it all depends on the price.
As for Coffey, lefties have always hit him hard. Luis Ayala is a guy I did not add to the list, but who had a solid bounce-back campaign in the front of the Yankees bullpen. But again, those are front-of-the-bullpen guys.
Which brings us back to Madson. Yesterday, the Phillies were reported to be nearing a four-year, $44 million deal. But that is a huge price to pay for a player who will pitch less than 80 innings most season. As we wrote in the paper last week, RAJ and Scott Boras are going toe-to-toe right now. The Phillies could look at Papelbon as a back-up plan, but I'd be a lot more scared of giving him a huge multi-year deal because he relies so much on his fastball and he gives up a lot of fly balls. That's not a good scenario if he starts losing velo.
Madson looks like the pitcher who will age better. Even if he loses some heat on his fastball, he has one of the best change-ups in the game, plus he throws a cutter. Papelbon is 75 percent fastball and the rest splitter.
I never thought I'd say this, because I think spending huge money on a reliever is terribly inefficient, but the Phillies don't really have any other options other than taking a flier on several guys and hoping that Contreras returns healthy, Bastardo remains dominant, and Stutes pitches like he did in the first half of last season.
What's a bigger waste of money: $11 million on a 70 very good innings or $5 million on a couple of guys who end up going bust? It is not an enviable situation, but at least Madson is as known a quantity as you are going to find on the market.
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You guys doing this on a Commodore 64 or an Atari?— jimmymack- Testing, testing. 1, 2, 3.— PhightinPhil
- Cant lose if you sign either Papelbon or Madson to 11 mil per year. You are getting a top 5 closer and solidifying the 9th inning.— FABER
Comment removed.- calico vision— dreinterests
- Good stuff as usual. All of these points are good and valid and it is a big drop after Madson and Papelbon. In all honesty I really hope that they sign Madson (and if not him Papelbon). Everything indicates that he should be reliable for a good portion of the proposed contract. But long contracts with relivers can turn bad quickly after the frist few years.
The length of the contract and money that is being talked about now are the most problematic to me. 4 years and 11 million is a crazy amount of money. This is even more so when you consider that they have the SS situation, potentially an OF spot to fill and a bench to build. And that doesn't even include Cole's extension. So my two thoughts: 1) If you're going to give that kind of money offer a shorter contract so there is less risk that it bites you at the end of the deal. 2) Just because there are not a lot of plan Bs, doesn't mean that they should overpay for plan A.
Also, any chance in follow ups you could expand your analysis a bit- looking at only one year can be really problematic and basing conclusions of future value on one year is equally as problematic as basing future value of a closer on saves. For example Nathan recorded his lowest GB rate since 2006, highest HR/9 since 1999 and lowest LOB% ever. Maybe some of that is attributable to age and maybe some to coming back from TJ. But even if he regresses to his mean he could still offer good value for his price. - WordPerfect!— BringBackBowa
- How about Jonathan Broxton? Two years ago he was an almost unhittable 2-time AS. He's only 27 and will be a cheap alternative. I would take a flyer on him offering an incentive laden contract. Maybe a change of scenery could help.— EL Zorro
- Broxton is the guy I've been touting all along. — PhightinPhil
- You beat me to it El Zorro. I'm surprised his name isn't even on the list. I look at Broxton as a definite step down from Madson or Papelbon today but he's also cheaper and younger. The upside to me is, worst case, you have another set-up guy. I also think you might have to committee it a bit early on until you see if he or one of the young arms has what it takes. If Contreras is somehow healthy and useful that's another fallback for a guy like Broxton.
— s - joe nathan could be done, and he really wasnt great under pressure before he went down..same for Jon Broxton,who isnt mentioned here, but he's 28 and could be a 2008 lidge-like lightning in a bottle..Cordero drove a Reds fan i know to drink. i dont like big money closers, but if you're spending 65 million or more for your starting pitchers, hard to justify spending under 10 mil for your entire bullpen and crossing your fingers...red sox and yanks wouldnt do that, and thats who the phils are competing with now...dont think you have much of a choice to bite the bullet here..its the 8 million or so for blanton thats really killing you here.— jim715
- In 2009 Broxton had a very good season (7-2, 2.61 ERA, 0.961 WHIP and 13.5K/9). But I think Joe Torre overused him. I remember Torre bringing him in the 8th to close games. Maybe he was thinking he was a young Mariano Rivera. I took a look at his page in baseball-reference.com and Broxton had 10 games where he threw between 26 to 50 pitches. That's a lot. The last two seasons since then, he has struggled. Even if he doesn't pan out early, you still have the deadline to get another closer, but I think is worth the risk. He's still young and was pretty darn good two years ago. He will be cheap and also has something to prove.— EL Zorro
- 2009 was a good year for Broxton. His fastball was averaging in the high 90's and he had a GB/FB ratio over 2. Even in the past two years he's had a higher GB rate than Madson, which would be a good fit for CBP. He still edges Madson in velocity even with falling off his 2009 performance.
But I see why he's probably off the radar now: elbow surgery in September.— s - to even talk about Chad Qualls, Todd Coffey, Matt Capps and some of these other turkeys is a waste of print. David Herndon is a better option than some of these guys. I get that some of these guys are 7th/8th inning guys but Qualls has rotted the past few years. he was so bad at one point his was given away. Maybe we can resurrect Mark Leiter fluid or Tim Worrell.— Back up the Bus for Gload and Bowker
- Every time I saw Dotel last year, he made hitters look overmatched. He could close or set up - as he did for the Cards. If his price is anything near sensible, get him.— dwp66
