Not a lot of Plan Bs behind Madson
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Not a lot of Plan Bs behind Madson
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In hindsight, last offseason might have been the time to sign a reliever or two with the hope of avoiding the current do-or-die scenario that might face the Phillies.
For the annual salary that the Phillies are reportedly thinking about bestowing upon Ryan Madson, they could have signed J.J. Putz and Scott Downs, or Joaquin Benoit and Jason Frasor. They would even have some money to spare. Last offseason turned out to be a surprisingly cost-effective one for teams adding bullpen arms. Unlike 2011, there weren't three dominant back-of-the-bullpen arms available. But there were a slew of veteran relievers with good strikeout rates who ended up signing modest deals. Joaquin Benoit was coming off one healthy season, so a lot of people raised their eyebrows when the Tigers gave him a three-year, $16.5 million deal. But he ended up giving them the type of production that is comparable to what the Phillies and other teams could be paying double-digit AAVs for guys like Madson, Jonathan Papelbon or even Francisco Rodriguez: 61 innings, a 2.95 ERA, 63 strikeouts, 17 walks, five home runs and 29 holds with only two blown saves.
More examples:
Scott Downs: 53.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, .483 OPS vs. LHB
Jesse Crain: 65.1 IP, 2.62 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
J.J. Putz: 58.0 IP, 2.17 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 45 saves
Grant Balfour: 62.0 IP, 2.47 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
Jason Frasor: 42.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Kyle Farnsworth: 57.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 25 saves
None of the above six relievers signed for more than $15 million total or $5.25 million per season. Granted, we are only talking about the first year of a contract for those who signed multi-year deals (everybody except Farnsworth). But most of them only need to give you another half a season of similar results before their production is on par with the numbers you would hope for out of the guys who could be getting paid $11 million per year this offseason.
There were some busts. The Red Sox took a chance on Bobby Jenks and he went down with another injury. Pedro Feliciano never pitched for the Yankees after signing a two-year, $8 million deal, but his workload was a big concern for the teams who shied away.
All in all, it turned out to be a good year for teams looking to add solid arms without breaking the bank.
This year? I'm not sure there are many options beyond Madson and Papelbon. Rodriguez's successful but incident-marred tenure in New York will make teams think twice, while Heath Bell seems intent on staying in San Diego.
Sure, there are plenty of recognizeable names out there. But most of them are recognizeable because of their save totals. And the save is not a very accurate barometer of a pitcher's actual (and potential future) performance.
Here is a look at the so-called "closers" on the market:
See anything that excites you? All you really need to do is look at the strikeout rates. If a guy is going to be a first or second option in your bullpen, he better have swing-and-miss stuff.
At the right price, Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Francisco Cordero are the three guys you would probably be most comfortable with. But all three have enough holes that you would be taking a huge gamble entering the season relying on them in the eighth or ninth.
Nathan is a name that has been mentioned a lot, and there is some upside there. He struggled early in the season after coming back from Tommy John surgery. But after a month-long stint on the disabled list, he posted a 3.38 ERA with 28 strikeouts and five walks in 29 1/3 innings in his final 31 appearances of the season. While FanGraphs will tell you that his velocity dropped significantly, he was hitting 93 consistently and touching 94 in three games that I looked at later in the season.
But Nathan only pitched on back-to-back days three times during that 31-game stretch to end the season, and he pitched on three straight days once. As you can see in the chart above, he has a worse groundball rate than any other pitcher on the list besides Jon Rauch. And, of course, he will be 37 years old next season. He'd be a great arm to add to the mix, but I don't know that I would be comfortable heading into the season with him and Antonio Bastardo as my clear-cut 1-2 in the eighth and ninth.
Cordero doesn't have the fastball he used to, so he doesn't get guys to swing and miss like he used to. But he is a veteran who has had consistent success. Capps' performance ebbs and flows with his slider command. Last year it ebbed, which is probably the reason he did not get the strikeouts he usually does.
The problem is, there is a good chance that with enough teams looking for cut-rate closers, the cut-rate for these guys will make them inefficient additions to the payroll.
Qualls doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff, plus he posted a 5.05 ERA away from the spacious Petco Park last season. Cross Mike MacDougal off your list: the last thing you want in the back of your bullpen is a guy who walks a ton of batters and can't compensate by striking them out at a high rate, regardless of his ERA and groundball rate.
So let's look at the next tier....
| Last | Tm | Age | BAbip | IP | ERA | SO/9 | BB/9 | SO/BB | Str% | S/Str | GB/FB | HR/9 | LD% | XBH% | X/H% |
| Dotel | TOR | 37 | .208 | 29.1 | 3.68 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | .660 | .180 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 13% | .066 | .400 |
| Mota | SFG | 37 | .289 | 80.1 | 3.81 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 2.57 | .610 | .200 | 0.68 | 1.1 | 20% | .066 | .310 |
| Coffey | WSN | 30 | .287 | 59.2 | 3.62 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | .620 | .160 | 0.74 | 0.6 | 20% | .063 | .290 |
| Wheeler | BOS | 33 | .274 | 49.1 | 4.38 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 4.88 | .680 | .140 | 0.48 | 1.3 | 18% | .095 | .400 |
| Rodney | LAA | 34 | .281 | 32.0 | 4.50 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 0.93 | .580 | .150 | 1.34 | 0.3 | 18% | .033 | .190 |
| Wuertz | OAK | 32 | .337 | 33.2 | 6.68 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 1.23 | .570 | .240 | 0.78 | 1.3 | 21% | .086 | .380 |
| Igarashi | NYM | 32 | .366 | 38.2 | 4.66 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 1.5 | .590 | .180 | 0.87 | 0.5 | 21% | .074 | .330 |
| Cruz | TBR | 32 | .256 | 48.2 | 3.88 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 1.64 | .600 | .150 | 0.56 | 0.9 | 13% | .060 | .330 |
Cruz's ERA looks OK, but he rarely pitched in meaningful situations, plus he walked a lot of guys and gave up a lot of fly balls. Igarashi was a bust during his two seasons in New York. Rodney has missed too much time due to injury in his career to be counted on, plus he lost his command and his manager's trust after returning from a month-and-a-half stint on the DL with a back strain. Wheeler was a very reliable reliever during his career with the Rays, but the fact that the Red Sox did not pick up his option should tell you something. Good organizations usually know their own players the best. He also had an issue with a forearm strain. The once-dominant Wuertz was released by the A's after two subpar seasons in which he could never seem to get over hand/wrist injuries. Dotel and Mota just keep on ticking, but they aren't going to keep fire-balling until they are 50. Dotel especially would be a solid option to have. But it all depends on the price.
As for Coffey, lefties have always hit him hard. Luis Ayala is a guy I did not add to the list, but who had a solid bounce-back campaign in the front of the Yankees bullpen. But again, those are front-of-the-bullpen guys.
Which brings us back to Madson. Yesterday, the Phillies were reported to be nearing a four-year, $44 million deal. But that is a huge price to pay for a player who will pitch less than 80 innings most season. As we wrote in the paper last week, RAJ and Scott Boras are going toe-to-toe right now. The Phillies could look at Papelbon as a back-up plan, but I'd be a lot more scared of giving him a huge multi-year deal because he relies so much on his fastball and he gives up a lot of fly balls. That's not a good scenario if he starts losing velo.
Madson looks like the pitcher who will age better. Even if he loses some heat on his fastball, he has one of the best change-ups in the game, plus he throws a cutter. Papelbon is 75 percent fastball and the rest splitter.
I never thought I'd say this, because I think spending huge money on a reliever is terribly inefficient, but the Phillies don't really have any other options other than taking a flier on several guys and hoping that Contreras returns healthy, Bastardo remains dominant, and Stutes pitches like he did in the first half of last season.
What's a bigger waste of money: $11 million on a 70 very good innings or $5 million on a couple of guys who end up going bust? It is not an enviable situation, but at least Madson is as known a quantity as you are going to find on the market.
Buy 2012 Phillies tickets 
Joe Duda is available in January. Give him a shot, can't hurt and won't cost a draft pick if signed. Al Schmidt approves this message !— vitosux- I will save this for later when I am trying to doze off..........— Earl J
- TeamAwesome, I totally agree. Don't overpay. Contreras and Bastardo and a reasonably priced Plan B give the Phils possibilities for 8th and closer.— mikemaddog
- Good stuff Murphy. Always despite the critics who complain about format, repetition, etc.
Boras ('asses Team) knows this stuff. Madson wants to stay because it is what he knows. Monty and RAJ know this and don't want to overpay. Boras is trying to derive highest value, when he knows Papelbon sets the gold standard (nearly) in this year's FA market for closers. All stuff we know. So what is new here? Simply the Phillies, Madson and Boras all know that if Madson does walk - and see the latest news - that the Phillies are screwed as pointed out on the 'plan B' level. They have nuthin' as they say in East Philly. So it is in Boras' best interest to play the game and continue to hold out, and try and drive another $4M into the coffer (I am not saying pay that) and see if the Phils blink.
Said here first: The Phils Blink.
The posters go nuts about 'overpaying', 'too much too long' etc. Oh boy. Sells e-papers though Murph.— 24sDad - Go for a cheaper option (one year of closing is not worth 11mil) and get some offense. Who know, maybe RAJ just realized he could sign one of the big offensive free agents and is pulling a Rope-A-Dope: Cliff Lee.— SPE
- Are the Phillies having second thoughts about signing Madson ? It looks that way.
The rumors of a 4 yr with an option for a fifth year seems excessive.
The Phillies, with their great starting pitching, could go to a bullpen by commitee if they don't resign Madson. They do not absolutely need a high priced closer. They could use their money more productively in other ways.
They could turn around and sign somebody like Reyes if they gave up on the idea of getting Cuddyer.
Not often you get a chance to sign a difference maker for the next 5 or 6 years. I am quite sure that if the Braves, Marlins or Nationals get him , the Phillies will not be of the one on top of their division at the end of any year for a long time to come.
The concern people have about Reyes' health is no different than they have about Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard or any of their high priced pitchers. Worry about the devil down the road when he shows up, not that he might.
PS. Jimmy Rollins or Michael Cuddyer are NOT difference makers anymore.— candidly - These charts look like the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets I did in '96— Sam Crow
- Let's face it, Boras leaked the Madson deal in order to get it to 4 years, $48 million or something. It may be too much but I'd be stunned at this point if multiple leaked media reports were totally off base, and Madson signs with the Marlins or something.— eman
- The Phillies can't pay everybody upwards of $10mil/year. Would anybody here rather see them sign Madson if it meant they might get outbid when it's time to resign Hamels? I wouldn't. Would anybody here rather have Cuddyer than Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier? They're both FAs after next year and it'd take an act of god for the Dodgers to suddenly find the money to keep both of them.
Plan B for a closer isn't a FA signing, it's a trade. Huston Street, 28, 178 career saves, signed for $7.5mil next year and $9mil in 2013. Joakim Soria, 28, 160 career saves, signed for $6mil next year, $8mil in 2013 and $8.5 in 2014 Andrew Bailey, 27, 75 career saves (Madson has 52 and he's 31) and Bailey is going to arbitration after making $465,000 last year. He'll probably get $5-6mil and that's why the A's have to consider trading him. Did I mention he's from South Jersey?— T-Money - you make a good point here... Madson IS plan b, because extending hamels should be plan a. i cant believe amaro has not gotten hamels extended yet. should have been top priority for him this offseason — zwarte piet
Comment removed.- i am ok with whatever plan b is along as it doesnt involve signing rollins. honestly, lidge at this stage of his career after hardly playing for the past couple years due to injury has to understand that he cannot command much salary at all.. he pitched well enough in 2011. would not mind a plan b of lidge back in the closer role ONLY IF we can get him really cheap - like a couple million per year.— zwarte piet
- Look, I think signing Madson is something we need to do. Having said that, if we lose him and can get a real offensive producer -- or a few -- that's not a bad tradeoff. Imagine adding Cuddyer and Aramis Ramirez at third, both of them. Our April lineup's something like this: 1. Victorino, CF; 2. Utley, 2B; 3. Pence, RF; 4. Ramirez; 5. Cuddyer, LF or 1B; 6. Mayberry, 1B or LF; 7. SS; 8. Ruiz. That's good. When Howard comes back, we drop him in the 4th or 5th spot, Mayberry probably platoons and that's real tough. Because they play several positions, Polanco and Cuddyer can spell guys like Utley and Ramirez.— eman
- Generally I'm critical of this writer, but must admit, this was a good column. I like Madson, but not for a four or five year contract. Injuries can occur. Look at Ryan Howard !— phineas
- I like Madson, but signing a reliever to that type of contract would be a huge mistake that would cripple the Phillies financially. With howard's contract they simply cannot afford to make any more mistakes. They just got out of a terrible contract with Lidge, who was a lights out closer when we signed him and by the end made most fans nervous if he came in for the 7th inning. This is just one of many examples across the MLB of how much relief pitchers fluctuate from year to year. The cardinals won the world series with a bullpen that combined would make about half of this proposed Madson contract. All due respect, but the man had one good year as a closer. Why not spend the money on other needs and just go with the hot hand out of the bullpen next year? Oh wait, Cholly would actually have to manage then and not just set the lineup and take a nap.— CGPhilly
