Evaluating the base coaches
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Evaluating the base coaches
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Over the last four seasons, three different third base coaches have paced foul territory for the Phillies. Steve Smith was in the box during the Phillies' World Series run in 2008, then was fired the following offseason. He then went on to a prolific career as a reality television star.
Sam Perlozzo replaced Smith, who was hired before the 2007 season. Perlozzo manned third base in 2009 and 2010 before the Phillies hired Juan Samuel this offseason and flip-flopped their two base coaches. This year, Samuel is at third, and Perlozzo is at first.
Sorry for telling you what you already know, but that's about the only concrete information we can offer about the coaching situation.
Base coaches are like umpires, offensive linemen and middle relievers. The only time you tend to notice them is when they mess something up. Because you tend to remember the negative outcomes more than the positive ones, it is tough to provide an unbiased evaluation of their job performance.
But I figure we should try. As you probably recall, Jimmy Rollins was thrown out at home on a single by Chase Utley on Tuesday night. For those who did not see the play, he and Ramon Hernandez had a enough time to discuss their dinner plans before the tag.
Because of the number of variables in play -- the speed of the base-runner, the velocity of the ball in play, the aptitude of the fielder -- there aren't really any conclusive numbers you can use to evaluate a third base coach.
But I've highlighted a number of different base-running statistics in an attempt to compare the Phillies' performance between seasons:
*NOTE: These numbers do not include the 19-inning game on Wed. night. Because, well, I looked all of them up before the game, and slacked off on writing the blog post.
1. Outs at Home
Thus far this season, the Phillies have had three base-runners thrown at home. One was Rollins. The other two were Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz. That ties them with Houston for second-most in the NL. The Cubs lead the way with four.
Here are the Phillies' outs at home over the last four seasons, along with the number of times a runner has been successfully waved around from second base on a single or from first base on a double:
| Year | Outs at Home | Successful Runs | Success Rate |
| 2011 | 3 | 45 | .938 |
| 2010 | 6 | 150 | .962 |
| 2009 | 2 | 126 | .984 |
| 2008 | 8 | 135 | .944 |
One note: at this point in the season last year, the Phillies had four runners thrown out at home.
2. Aggressiveness
Let's say Rollins is on second. Utley lines a hit to right field. The third base coach calculates the risk as Rollins approaches third. Send him, and there is a chance he is thrown out. Hold him, and he will definitely be safe. But the run might never score.
This season, the Phillies have scored a runner from second on a single on 36 of 62 occasions, which ranks 11th in the National League:
| Team | Singles with Man on 2B | Runs | Percentage |
| Rockies | 38 | 30 | .790 |
| Braves | 54 | 42 | .778 |
| Cardinals | 81 | 55 | .679 |
| Giants | 48 | 32 | .667 |
| Dodgers | 42 | 28 | .667 |
| Brewers | 53 | 34 | .642 |
| Mets | 50 | 32 | .640 |
| DBacks | 52 | 33 | .635 |
| Reds | 59 | 36 | .610 |
| Padres | 46 | 27 | .587 |
| PHILLIES | 62 | 36 | .581 |
| Pirates | 40 | 23 | .575 |
| Astros | 74 | 41 | .554 |
| Cubs | 44 | 24 | .546 |
| Nationals | 43 | 22 | .512 |
| Marlins | 58 | 28 | .483 |
Now let's say a runner is on first base. The batter hits a double. The runner is either going to hold at third or proceed to home. The Phillies have scored a runner from first on a double 9 times in 24 opportunities for a .375 conversion rate that ranks 12th in the National League.
| Team | Doubles with Man on 1B | Runs scored from 1B | Percentage |
| DBacks | 17 | 10 | .588 |
| Mets | 27 | 14 | .519 |
| Cardinals | 16 | 8 | .500 |
| Braves | 21 | 10 | .476 |
| Rockies | 21 | 10 | .476 |
| Reds | 32 | 14 | .438 |
| Padres | 16 | 7 | .438 |
| Cubs | 33 | 14 | .424 |
| Astros | 27 | 11 | .407 |
| Brewers | 18 | 7 | .389 |
| Pirates | 26 | 10 | .385 |
| PHILLIES | 24 | 9 | .375 |
| Giants | 17 | 6 | .353 |
| Dodgers | 23 | 8 | .348 |
| Marlins | 24 | 8 | .333 |
| Nationals | 15 | 4 | .267 |
What do the numbers mean? Really, you have to draw your own conclusions. It could be an indication that they are less aggressive on the basepaths than other teams. Or it could simply be a matter of slower runners being on base. Or it could be defensive positioning. Or it could be the size of the ballpark. Really, all of these factors come into play.
The only thing you can say for sure is that the Phillies rank in the bottom third of the National League when it comes to their base-running in run-scoring situations.
3. Previous seasons
Here's a look at how the Phillies' current run-scoring/baserunning performance compares to previous years.
First, a look at how often they have scored from second on a single:
| Year | Singles with Men on 2B | Runs Scored | Percentage |
| 2011 | 62 | 36 | .581 |
| 2010 | 201 | 117 | .582 |
| 2009 | 175 | 94 | .537 |
| 2008 | 163 | 98 | .601 |
The chart below shows the percentage of time they scored a run while taking an extra base including both from 2B on a single, and from 1B on a double.
| Year | Percent scored |
| 2011 | .523 |
| 2010 | .512 |
| 2009 | .484 |
| 2008 | .523 |
4. In conclusion
What does this all mean? Well, if I am interpreting them correctly, the numbers seem to indicate that the Phillies are a below-average base-running team. But not much worse than they have been in previous years. Their stolen base success rate is 79 percent, which is lower than it was in any of Davey Lopes season as first base coach. But they have actually scored by taking an extra base at the same rate they did in 2008, when they won the World Series. They haven't scored as often from second base as they did when they won the World Series. But the Phillies also had 8 runners thrown out in 2008.
They have been thrown out at home more than in recent years, but there are two caveats: One, Samuel is in his first year with the team, which means he is probably still getting a feel for his players. Two, it is a small sample size. As we pointed out earlier, the Phillies had four runners thrown out at home at this time last season, but had only two runners thrown out at home the rest of the way.
The Phillies have spent most of the season without their best baserunner in Chase Utley, although they also spent a lot of time without Jimmy Rollins last season.
Thus far, their base-running performance has been well below that of teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Rockies, all of whom are expected to be in contention. They have taken an extra base just 35 percent of their opportunities (1st-to-3rd or 2nd-to-home on a single, 1st-to-home on a double), which ranks 13th in the National League.
It seems to me that the revolving base coaches are less of a factor than the loss of baserunners like Chase Utley, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino and the continued aging of the NL's oldest line-up.
Would love to hear your own interpretations, or any criticism of my math.
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Excellent. Your research is very impressive. And I like your debate-style format, and the intro downplaying the base coaches was nice touch. To be honest, I've been on fence about your writing; but you proved yourself today. Here's to a Jayson Stark career!— fritztastic- On the fence but this entry convinced you?! David Murphy has been writing pieces exactly like this for a few years now. Thoroughly researched, open-minded from the start, and with a fantastic grasp on how the stats relate to the game on the field. — PhilaLogic
- If you want something really obscure to look-up, I bet never in history has a first-place team this late in the season had its first three batters in a game hitting less than the Mendoza line.— fritztastic
- Where did the Phillies' scoring from second base on a single percentages rank in the NL the previous three seasons? It is a small sample so far this season; do many teams maintain that .667 or higher percentage?— PhilaLogic
- Two thoughts. First, I wonder what their rate of first to third is on a single? That is a baserunning decision that the player usually makes on his own, so it would help to determine if they are poor baserunners in general (slow, not aggresive, etc), or if Samuel is the issue.
Second, that risk/reward decision of whether to send or not is different this year than 2008 or 2009, because statistically the guy who is stopped at third is less likely to score than in past years (since the offense has been so poor). In that light, sending runners home who have even a 50/50 shot of being thrown out is defensible, especially with two outs. There's no reward for being safely on third when the inning ends, and all too often this year that's where a runner would be fi the stop sign went up.— Phils Phan 28 - PhilaLogic - Just to take the top three from this season, Colorado finished 2010 with a .674 conversion rate, Colorado finished at .674 and Atlanta finished at .565. I haven't done the math on the rest.— David_Murphy
- I think with this team you have to send the runner any time they have a chance to score. That might mean more get thrown out but in the long run it will mean more wins. You have to always challenge the other teams outfielders to make a good throw and the catcher to make the catch and block the plate.— krupps58
- Phils Phan - I had the same thought as you, but didn't feel like dividing all the numbers on 1st-to-3rd. That's why I referenced the "Extra Bases Taken" percentage, which is 13th in NL. That includes 1st-to-thirds. Which is why I think the below-average base-running numbers are more a product of personnel than coaches. Utley and Werth were two of the best at going 1st-to-3rd...— David_Murphy
- Martinez had a tough play and made it tougher by not setting himself up and throwing of the wrong foot wild to first base. He had the time result 2 runs. Dont bury Raul!— Don w
- Stats have awayas been part of baseball. The statistical categories and variety of stats seem to have increased exponentially with the arrival of laptop computers and the prominence of the Elias Sports Bureau. As someone who almost always keeps score when I'm at the game, (and kept score and cumulative stats for every softball team I played for) I'm not anti-stat. But I don't draw much from this comparison. As recorded in Roger Kahn's "Boys of Summer," after the 1950 season when the Dodgers lost the pennant to the Phillies because they had a runner thrown out at home late in the deciding game, they fired their third base coach. The next year, when they lost the NL pennant playoff to the Giants because of Bobby Thomson's "Shot Heard Round the World," they fired their bullpen coach who had suggested that they bring in Ralph Branca instead of Carl Erskine. Over the next five seasons (52-56) they won four pennants and a World Series, not unlike the Phillies' runs in 1976 to 1980 and 2007 to 2010 and probably this year as well. First and thrid base coaches contribute more off the field then they do during the game (e.g. Dave Lopes and basrunning, Sam Perlozzo and infield instruction--especially improving Ryan Howard as a fielder).— lmscdad
- honestly, I am concerned with wins and loses...not into playing monday morning qb— danielboyer
- Don w, I disagree. That was a very difficult in between hops slow grounder and Martinez got to the ball faster than many SS would have. If he throws the runner out is one of the best plays this year so far. Rollins, at this stage of his career, would have gotten the ball and maybe keep it in his pocket. No way he was going to throw the runner out IMO. That's why it was ruled a base hit.— EL Zorro
- There are various other factors that weigh into whether to send a runner. Whether a team is up by a lot or down by a lot might cause the defense to play differently in the outfield and also play to prevent a big inning by throwing into second. It also matters if the ball is hit to right or left or center and also the outfielder involved. Should the field figure in or the wheather?
For me, the question is the ability of Samuel. Early in the game he'll hold a runner at third with two outs instead of forcing the throw and the runner doesn't score anyway. I wonder if the failure of the Phils to hit AND to score runners from third is also playing games with Samuel's decisions. He's new there so we have to be patient. I was bothered the other night that Howard wasn't ready to tag on that line drive out to left. I blame Samuel for that when Howard didn't score.
Other than that, it is a good piece of work David. I've never seen anyone do that kind of stat study. Good for you.— greenflyer - Another thing to consider, how bad was the runner thrown out?— EL Zorro
- Bottom line is, too many intangibles to consider to go by numbers alone. We just have to watch and decide for ourselves.— EL Zorro
