Emptying the notebook, playoff style
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Emptying the notebook, playoff style
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Not only did the Phillies clinch a third straight National League East title last night, they clinched three consecutive days off for High Cheese. Today, the question on my mind isn't "Pedro Martinez or J.A. Happ for the postseason rotation?" It's, "Rouge or New Wave Cafe for lunch?"
But there is a lot of stuff I didn't get a chance to put in the paper today, so before I turn my attention toward laundry and bills and dry-cleaning and, yes, lunch, I thought I'd run it all down for your.
1) A scene from last night's clubhouse: Jayson Werth is standing in the middle of the room, surrounded by a gaggle of reporters, wearing glasses and a hat while drenched with various forms of alcohol. He is in the middle of a question when a short balding Canadian walks up behind him and tugs on his arm. Werth doesn't notice. So the short balding Candian pinches his rear end. Werth turns around. Matt Stairs whispers to him, "Come on. We're going to the HK sign." With that, Stairs and Werth join the procession of Phillies filing out of the clubhouse, down a long hallway, through the dugout and onto the field. Together, they jog across the playing surface toward left-center field, where a large sign emblazoned with the intials HK has spent the season standing watch over one of the more dramatic seasons in recent memory. They reach the warning track and pause, together, drinking champagne and smoking cigars and reflecting on the previous 157 games. One of the cooler moments I've seen since I started on the beat last February.
2) I asked Pedro Martinez last night how he would evaluate his outing. He said he was satisfied with it. He allowed three runs in four innings and needed 84 pitches to do so, and he looked a lot more like the pitcher who took the mound in his first extended outing as a Phillie in August than the pitcher who held the Mets scoreless for eight innings in his most recent one. But Martinez said that both he and pitching coach Rich Dubee looked at this start as a simple tune-up for the postseason. That's Martinez's word, not mine. He was obviously rusty. It took him an inning to get his fastball back into the upper 80's and low 90's. But after 11 days off, that was to be expected.
3) Who will the Phillies play? As of today, they are a half game behind the Dodgers for the top overall seed in the playoffs and two games ahead of the Cardinals for the second seed. Either one of those two finishes will give them a home playoff series in the first round, and provided the Dodgers win one more game and clinch the NL West, the opponent will almost certainly be Colorado. The Phillies have a magic number of two to clinch second place, meaning they need two wins or Cardinals losses to clinch. Assuming the opponent is Colorado, Games 1 and 2 will be in Philly next Wednesday and Thursday. Games 3 and 4 will be in Colorado next Saturday and Sunday. And a Game 5, if necessary, would be in Philly the following Tuesday.
4) Now, the question: What will the Phillies' postseason rotation look like? Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are the obvious starters for Game 1 and Game 2. There's a chance the Phillies could do something funky to get Hamels ready for Game 1. But really, that would seem counterproductive. Hamels is scheduled to pitch on Saturday on his normal fifth day, which would set him up to start Game 2 on normal rest. Hamels is best when he is in a rhythm and pitching every fifth day, so I expect the Phillies to keep it that way. Lee, meanwhile, will start tonight and then be available to start Game 1 on five days rest. Both Hamels and Lee will be on full rest if there is a Game 5, so why bother messing with Hamels just to give him the "honor" of starting Game 1?
5) Next question about the rotation: Who starts Game 3 and Game 4? I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. last night if, after watching Martinez pitch the clincher, he would be confident in sending him out to the mound in the playoffs. Amaro said yes, although he acknowledged that no decisions had been made. Most of the focus has been trained on Happ vs. Martinez for the final spot in the rotation, but I'm not sure that Blanton isn't an option for the bullpen. If the opponent is Colorado, Happ will be a strong candidate for the rotation. He pitched a complete game shut out against the Rockies earlier this season, and Colorado has struggled mightily against left-handed starters over the past month or two. So, to me, the question will come down to Blanton vs. Martinez. Blanton has never faced the Rockies, at least according to the splits I am looking at. Martinez, meanwhile, has not fared very well at Coors Field in his career.
Blanton at Dodger Stadium: 2 GS, 0-0, 4.09 ERA
Blanton at Busch Stadium: 2 GS, 2-0, 1.38 ERA
Blanton at Coors Field: No starts
Blanton vs. Dodgers: 4 GS, 1-0, 2.88 ERA
Blanton vs. Rockies: No starts
Blanton vs. Cardinals: 3 GS, 3-0, 1.71 ERA
Blanton in September: 5 GS, 3-1, 4.91 ERA, .243 BAA, 5 HR
Happ at Dodger Stadium: No starts
Happ at Busch Stadium: No starts
Happ at Coors Field: 1 G, 0 GS, 2.1 IP, 1 HR, 0 R, 1 SO, 0 BB, 0 HR
Happ vs. Dodgers: 1 G, 0 GS, 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR
happ vs. Cardinals: 2 GS, 0-1, 5.11 ERA, 12.1 IP, 15 HR, 7 R, 4 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR
Happ vs. Rockies: 2 G, 1 GS, 0.00 ERA, 11.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 SO
Happ in September: 4 GS, 2-1, 4.43 ERA, .329 BAA, 5 HR
Martinez at Dodger Stadium: 38 G, 14 GS, 7-7, 2.93 ERA
Martinez at Busch Stadium II: 1 GS, 5 IP, 5 R
Martinez at Coors Field: 4 GS, 1-2, 4.97 ERA, 7 HR
Martinez vs. Rockies: 10 G, 8 GS, 2-3, 4.31 ERA
Martinez vs. Cardinals: 16 G, 11 GS, 4-4, 3.62 ERA
Martinez vs. Dodgers: 9 GS, 3-5, 4.02 ERA
Martinez in September: 5 GS, 3-1, 3.14 ERA, .274 BAA
6) But while Happ might be the best choice to start against the Rockies, he also might be the best choice to slide into a bullpen role. While Martinez began his career as a lights-out set-up man for the Dodgers and has appeared in relief in the postseason, he is probably the least-suited for a bullpen role at this point in his career. Watching him pitch this season, it seems to take him a full inning to warm up and find his groove. And his career numbers suggest that habit is not limited to this season. In his career, Martinez has allowed 178 runs in the first inning, far more than any other inning (second-most: 142 in the fourth).
Happ, meanwhile, has allowed just three runs in the first inning this season. Opponents are hitting just .182 against him in the first inning.
But don't forget about Blanton. Opponents are hitting .218 against him in the first inning this season. He has allowed 11 runs in 30 first innings this season. Might he merit consideration as a reliever?
This surely be the Phillies most difficult decision, one that probably will not be made until the day of Game 1.
7) Kyle Kendrick. Has the young righty pitched his way into postseason roster consideration? "Everybody is in consideration," pitching coach Rich Dubee said last night. There is no question Kendrick is a different pitcher from last season. And he has turned in two straight crucial outings of long relief. His ERA in limited action as a reliever is below 3.00 this season. Has he performed well enough to merit consideration with Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey and Tyler Walker for one of the final relief spots on the postseason roster?
8) Educated guesses. Unlike predictions, educated guesses have some foundation in logic. Here are mine:
- J.A. Happ will be in the playoff rotation if the opponent is the Rockies. Cliff Lee will start Game 1. Cole Hamels will start Game 2. Happ, who is scheduled to start Sunday, will start Game 4 in Colorado.
- Blanton will start Game 3, but the Phillies will not announce it until either the day before or the day of the game.
- Martinez will throw a simulated or instructional league game on Monday, his fifth day. He will then be available to pitch out of the bullpen starting with Game 3 in Colorado on Saturday (his fifth day). The Phillies will have him prepare as if he is starting Game 3. If they need long relief in that game, he will be the guy. Then, the Phillies' goal will be two-fold: To have him ready for an all-hands-on-deck, if necessary, Game 5, and to have him ready to re-join the rotation for the NLCS.
- I would not be shocked if Martinez gets the Game 3 start Saturday and Blanton is in the bullpen. Unconventional, given the fact that Blanton has been one of the team's steadiest starters? Sure. But convention and postseason games are sometimes at odds.
- Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre will all be on the NLDS roster. So will Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Martinez. That leaves one pitching spot available for righthanders Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker, Clay Condrey and Kendrick.
- Kendrick and Durbin will not be on the roster because they match up poorly with Rockies hitters.
- Kendrick vs: Helton (4/9), Atkins (4/11, HR), Torrealba (3/9, HR), Hawpe (3/6, 2 HR), Barmes (2/3), Tulowitzki (2/7). Overall: .349/.406.
- Durbin vs: Giambi (6/15, 2 HR), Spilborghs (2/2), Fowler (2/2), Atkins (1/4). No ABs vs. Helton.
- The final roster spot will come down to Condrey vs. Walker, and I think Condrey will get it for a few reasons: First, he has had success against several Rockies: Helton (1/7, 2B, 3 RBI, 2BB), Hawpe (0-for-4, 3 SO), Ianetta (0/4, 1 SO), Torrealba (0/3, 2 SO), Tulowitzki (0/3, 1 SO). Second, he has a fresher arm than Walker, who has been used heavily down the stretch. Third, if everything else is equal, he has pitched in the postseason before.
- Sergio Escalona could edge out Condrey, Durbin and Walker for the sheer fact that the Rockies are loaded with left-handed hitters. And with the uncertain health status of Romero and Eyre, the Phillies could have use for a lefty to face one batter -- Todd Helton, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith, Brad Hawpe, Jason Giambi and Carlos Gonzalez are all lefties who the Phillies could need to get out in a big moment. But Escalona is a rookie, and doesn't have much experience. Which makes me think the Phils will err on the side of a righty with experience.
- Keep in mind that the last one or two relievers likely will not see much action.
9) So as of today, here is your projected postseason roster, although I would not be surprised to see Escalona replace Condrey:
- Rotation: Game 1 - Cliff Lee, Game 2 - Cole Hamels, Game 3 - Joe Blanton, Game 4 - J.A. Happ
- Relievers: RHP Brad Lidge, RHP Ryan Madson, RHP Brett Myers, RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Clay Condrey, RHP Pedro Martinez, LHP Scott Eyre, LHP J.C. Romero.
- Regulars: SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley, 3B Pedro Feliz, 1B Ryan Howard, LF Raul Ibanez, CF Shane Victorino, RF Jayson Werth, C Carlos Ruiz
- Bench: LH Matt Stairs, LH Greg Dobbs, C Paul Bako, RH Ben Francisco, RH Eric Bruntlett.
10) Feel free to share your thoughts.
Poll: Golden era of Philly baseball?
Boyep2--Cairo doesn't make the roster for the same reason he spent most of the season at AAA--the Phils don't like the way he plays defense at SS, shouldn't something happen to Rollins. Bruntlett can play all IF and the corner OF positions, plus, he has more speed on he bases than Cairo.— bobbyuk
Comment removed.- I think right now, everyone is assuming that the Rockies will be our first-rough opponents, but there is a chance it will be the Dodgers, which will impact our rotation. The three-game Rockies-Dodgers series this weekend should be fascinating. I support putting Lidge on the roster, but hope that Charlie does not feel the need to automatically use him to begin an inning as the closer. Let him back up Madson if needed.— chuckw
- No way Eyre and Romero are the sole Lefties in the pen. Both are coming off injuries, and both are therefore rusty. If Happ ends up starting, which I agree is likely, I say Escalona has a serious shot for this reason and despite his inexperience.— Cheesedog
- Ahhh..New Wave Cafe...spent a good portion of my younger days there, along with a good portion of my liver! Go Phils!!— FreeholdviaPhilly
- Chan Ho has a setback in Clearwater?— phairmount
- Murph, I agree with most of your logic for the post season roster. I would keep Kendrick and drop Eyre because he is hurt and they wouldn't get much work out of him. Kendrick has been impressive since coming back and Happ has the moxie to go either way, pen or start. He gives Chalie a lot of flex. I have no faith in Lidge and would drop him but you know for sure that won't happen. The old goat, Pedro, could be the trump card. He's a rock star who loves the stage and is healthy.— brinkmang
- I hope that Cliff Lee shows up for the playoffs. He's pitching like garbage right now. I don't think I want him being the game 1 starter and possibly getting multiple starts in a series. Now I can see how Cleveland sent him down to the minors 2 years ago.— phink
- Are we sure the Phils don"t go with an 11 man staff in the first round since it is only best of 5 and keep another bat, like Cairo? I also thikn the Game 1 starter should be Lee, he is better suited than Hamels to come back in Game 4 on short rest if the team is down 2-1. Hamels could then go on regular rest in Game 5.— KMG
- Agree Cairo over Bruntlett. Manuel played this game like homefield advantage is not important in the playoff. Why didn't he pinch hit for Bruntlett? Perhaps they figure Eric is a better option at short if any thing happens to Rollins.— Don w
- How is it possible to get 13 hits that translate to only 3 runs? I don't get it. And is Bruntlett the most USELESS player on the team? Zero for 5 at bats, including 3 strike outs... How does this guy sleep at night?— pajamas
- No Ho = Kendrick. Unless JC & Myers pitch well over the weekend, neither of them either. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Walker, Escalano, Condrey, & Pedro. Happ will pitch out of the bullpen at some point, but I'm with you about him starting game 4. Yep, pen is loaded with righties. Yep, might change for the NLCS if we're there. But JC is hurt (until he proves otherwise), so is Ho (at least that was the report today) & Myers adds nothing at present in a bullpen crammed with right arms. First round is no time to be rehabbing. I'd love to swap JC for Escalano, but can't do it until I see JC pitch. Same with Ho. Who knows, maybe Kendrick is our Marty Bystrom. 13 bats comes down to do you keep Stairs (yes), Dobbs (yes), so it comes down to the right handed bat off the bench besides Francisco - Cairo or the Beard. Bruntlett plays 2 outfield & every infield position except catcher & seems to be Charley's good luck charm. Cairo plays middle infield & is hitting. Dobbs plays the corners & left. We will carry two back up outfielders. We don't need Bruntlett's defense. And Cairo runs better than Bruntlett. Ruiz, Bako, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Dobbs, Cairo, Ibanez, Vic, Werth, Francisco & Stairs. Go Phils.— Ed3
- YAHOO sports is reporting Team Doctors say that J.C. Romeroe has persisitent PAIN in his left forearm and is headed for NY... and CHAN HO PARK is HURT AGAIN! ...Park returned to Philadelphia after feeling discomfort in his right hamstring during a rehab outing in the Florida Instructional League. He will see team doctor Michael Ciccotti on Friday.— wxdavid
- Jayson Werth needs to grow up. he's not in college anymore or oneof the real young guys on the team, why the heck was he chugging beer from a pitcher and pouring it all over himself. It is fine to drink the champagne and beer, but what he did was ridiculous, and not one guy in the media has pointed it out. No wonder there is such an alcohol problem in this world, it has become the cool thing to get completely wasted out of your mind. I am sure people will start ripping me, but whatever. Too many people are dying from alcohol.— scars73
- Murph, things have changed since your article has come out. Romero and Park are not going to be able to pitch. I see Kendrick and Escalona replacing them. I agree that Happ matches up well as a starter against the Rockies and should be in that spot before Pedro. If Cliff Lee gets hammered in game 1 like he has been lately.. you may be looking at sweep again for the Rockies.— bradco
