Gio Gonzalez: Compelling, sensible, but unlikely
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Gio Gonzalez: Compelling, sensible, but unlikely
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The latest buzz out of the winter meetings is that the Phillies and Athletics discussed a trade for Oakland lefty Gio Gonzalez, with Domonic Brown mentioned by Fox's Ken Rosenthal as one of the pieces involved.
The questions:
1) Why would the Phillies do such a thing?
Pretty simple: Gonzalez, who is two years younger than Hamels, is under club control through the 2015 season. Cole Hamels, on the other hand, can become a free agent after 2012. The Phillies front office wouldn't be doing its job if it did not explore all of its options with regard to the Hamels situation. The lefty wants, and deserves, a contract that pays him among the top pitchers in the game. The Phillies understand how much he brings to their rotation, but they also understand that he is one of the few baragining chips they have when it comes to injecting some new life into an aging roster. In theory, the Phillies could acquire Gonzalez, who has pitched like an ace the past couple of seasons, and then look to move Hamels for some pieces who they feel will be more likely to help them than Brown and whatever other prospects it would take to land Gonzalez.
Hamels is clearly the more talented and more accomplished pitcher, but Gonzalez would still be one of the best, if not the best, No. 3 starter in the game.
Here is how Hamels and Gonzalez stack up over the last two years:
| PLAYER | YEAR | G | GS | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB | WHIP | GB/FB | X/H(%) |
| Gonzalez | 2011 | 32 | 32 | 202.0 | 3.12 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 2.16 | 1.317 | 0.90 | 25 |
| Hamels | 2011 | 32 | 31 | 216.0 | 2.79 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 4.41 | 0.986 | 1.14 | 31 |
| Gonzalez | 2010-11 | 65 | 65 | 402.2 | 3.17 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.01 | 1.314 | 0.94 | 25 |
| Hamels | 2010-11 | 65 | 64 | 424.2 | 2.92 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 3.86 | 1.081 | 0.99 | 35 |
2) How would this help the Phillies?
Theoretically, it would enable them to trade Hamels, which would lower their payroll for at least the next two years and allow them to acquire some significant young pieces.
Shane Victorino can become a free agent after next season. Carlos Ruiz, likewise. Placido Polanco's contract will be up. Chase Utley isn't getting any younger. Jimmy Rollins still isn't signed to a contract.
What if the Phillies were able to use Hamels to acquire the pieces necessary to acquire a player like David Wright? Are the Phillies better off with Wright and Gonzalez or with Hamels and Polanco and whoever might replace him? What if the series of deals also left them with a prospect like Blue Jays catcher Travis D'Arnaud, who has developed into one of the top prospects in the game since the Phillies traded him away for Halladay?
3) What are the chances of such a deal happening?
Remote. I just can't see Oakland and the Phillies matching up on a deal. Keep in mind, the A's would not appear to be under any pressure to move Gonzalez for salary reasons. Any team that wants to pry him away would have to offer a huge package. In other words, Domonic Brown and Vance Worley or Kyle Kendrick probably isn't going to get it done. Because Gonzalez is inexpensive and under club control, teams like the Diamondbacks and the Nationals and the Marlins and other so-called "small-market" teams should have the payroll room to accomodate Gonzalez. Gonzalez would improve these teams more than he would improve the Phillies, which means those teams have more incentive to acquire him, which means those teams are probably in better position to meet Oakland's undoubtedly steep demands.
Meanwhile, from the Phillies point of view, there are probably enough potential drawbacks to temper any offer. Gonzalez has a much higher walk rate than Hamels. He has never pitched more than 202 innings in a season. He has just two full seasons under his belt. His ERA away from the cavernous Oakland Coliseum was 3.62 in 2011 and 3.92 in 2010 (compared with 2.70 and 2.56 at home).
Unless the Athletics covet Brown, it's hard to imagine the Phillies putting together the most attractive package.
Even if they did match up on a trade, there's no guarantee the Phillies would be able to turn Hamels into something that would help them this year or next year. Wright would seem to be a perfect fit, but are the Mets are in bad enough PR shape as it is. Are they really going to trade the face of their franchise to their fiercest rival? Maybe there is another potential target out there. The Blue Jays could use another top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Ricky Romero. But would D'Arnaud and other prospects be worth diminishing the 2012 roster? It's hard to imagine Toronto would be willing to deal young third baseman Brett Lawrie.
4) So what you're saying is. . .
It's an interesting rumor, and I don't doubt for a second that Amaro is out there exploring interest in his few bargaining chips: Hamels, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown, etc. But on paper, it's hard to see a deal getting done. Chalk this one up to things that have been kicked around without any sunstantive progress. But hey, it gave us something to write about.
insane to trade hamels. pay him and get it done. he reminds me of steve carlton.— joeynick- Reminds you of Carlton? Why don't you wait until he wins more then 15 games in a season before we compare him to a Hall of Fame pitcher? He has been a very good pitcher, but never close to great. Even his post-season run of '08 wasn't as impressive when you objectively look at the numbers. The facts are very simple. The offensive came through with clutch hit after clutch hit that post-season and that is why the Phillies won the World Series. Hamels did give up 4 runs in 13 innings during that World Series and I don't have the time to bring up his dreadful '09 and mediocre '10 post'seasons.
The same logic involved with the Rollins decision is the same that can be applied to Hamels. Most people don't want to sign Rollins because of declining numbers over the past few years and the idea that those numbers will contiue to decline. Should we pay Hamels a huge contract given the fact that his numbers have never climbed to the level of Cy Young winner?— Jmack228 - Dumb article. Lets focus on letting J-Pop walk, signing Ramirez, and getting some left handed bullpen help.— Bruno Sammartino
- Hamels should retire in a Phillies jersey, after a five or six more parades.— gho_matt
- Lets get Gio and Gavin...sort of a reunion.— Romus
- The Phils better get this deal done soon, I hear Detroit is trying to get Gio so they can trade Verlander. Where does this craziness come from?— ericg610
- Thanks for the post Murph. Are you out there with Richie, Potsie and Ralph Mouth? Ayyyyy!— stoptothinkisanidiot
- The A's don't like to swing deals during the winter meetings, but they will trade Gonzalez before the season opens out of necessity. Their depth chart in the outfield looks like left field - Sweeney, center field - Sweeney, and right field - Sweeney and Taylor. They need young outfielders with a lot of upside potential. That's why the Phils will still be in the mix for Gonzalez, regardless of what the media is reporting today. The Phils have Domonic Brown who is still considered one of the top outfield prospects in baseball and exactly the kind of player the A's are trying to acquire. Cole Hamels has nothing to do with the Phils acquiring Gonzalez, and there's no reason the Phils would have to consider trading Hamels if they acquire Gonzalez, who is under team control through 2015 and is currently earning $420,000 a year. Most of the other teams currently interested in Gonzalez don't have a player with Brown's potential to trade. The Phils do. Acquiring Gonzalez who is 26 years old and boasted a 3.12 ERA in 2011 would help the Phils now and for many years to come. Everyone wants the Phils to start getting younger, and Gonzalez would be a great place to start.— onthebucks
- You can never get enough pitching but can Gio hit. The regular hitters are underachieving, the pitcher must pick up the slack for a weak hitting lineup with a sub-standard hitting coach!
— jpelle36 - Trading Hamels would end up being Ferguson Jenkins, Part II.— stefek23
- This article reeks of empirical residue!— pedge
- Years ago the Phillies traded a young pitcher as well. His name---Ferguson Jenkins, who went on to a Hall of Fame career with the lowly Cubs. DON'T make that mistake again. Let Rollins go- I think he's uncoachable anyway.— eyesell
- @chuckw....lol....I put that line in there just for you! A little sacrasm to lighten the day...if course Amaro doesn't read any of this....I have him on speed dial!....well no, I'm not that important to the Phillies organization but you can rest assured Amaro has talked with plenty of the team docs, plenty of PTs and the teams training staff. They all know Cole's history. We know what we are told which so far is 3-4 years of a balky elbow, poor velocity some springs, atleast 3 cortisone shots and a rotator cuff strain that I'm aware of and now surgery to remove bone chips. You can bet there are things we haven't been told along the way, that's how it works. If I am GM, I tread very lightly here. Cole is a very poor risk for anything longer than a 3 year contract. We don't even yet know how he's coming off the surgery or how well/effective he will be going forward. Maybe Rube has already seen signs or gotten reports from the staff that don't look promising. Either way, he's a poor risk for a long term deal. The only way Moyer or any pitcher can throw for 15-25 years is if they NEVER encounter structural damage. Things like bone chips are structural damage. The fact that he has them at 27yo is even worse! And to people who say he is worth $18-20 mil/per. That's just silly. He had one good playoff run over a month's time in 2008! Never sniffed the 16 games GGonzalez won last year with a last place team! Never led the league in ANY category in any year! Never won a CY as Lee, Halladay, Sabbathia or Verlander have done. Never will either, IMO.— Mark1npt
- Jamesallen, World Champions representing the City of Philadelphia.— escapedcamden4monterey
- Ferguson Jenkins never had a bad elbow or bone chips in it. In fact when I talked to Ferguson (because I've been around him in clubhouses and restaurants him about 20 times) and asked him about the trade he said he had no idea he would go on to the career he ende up having. He never blamed the Phillies for the trade because "they didn't know what they had or what I was gonna be". That being said, Fergie was a HOFer, Cole not so much.....— Mark1npt
