Gio Gonzalez: Compelling, sensible, but unlikely
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Gio Gonzalez: Compelling, sensible, but unlikely
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The latest buzz out of the winter meetings is that the Phillies and Athletics discussed a trade for Oakland lefty Gio Gonzalez, with Domonic Brown mentioned by Fox's Ken Rosenthal as one of the pieces involved.
The questions:
1) Why would the Phillies do such a thing?
Pretty simple: Gonzalez, who is two years younger than Hamels, is under club control through the 2015 season. Cole Hamels, on the other hand, can become a free agent after 2012. The Phillies front office wouldn't be doing its job if it did not explore all of its options with regard to the Hamels situation. The lefty wants, and deserves, a contract that pays him among the top pitchers in the game. The Phillies understand how much he brings to their rotation, but they also understand that he is one of the few baragining chips they have when it comes to injecting some new life into an aging roster. In theory, the Phillies could acquire Gonzalez, who has pitched like an ace the past couple of seasons, and then look to move Hamels for some pieces who they feel will be more likely to help them than Brown and whatever other prospects it would take to land Gonzalez.
Hamels is clearly the more talented and more accomplished pitcher, but Gonzalez would still be one of the best, if not the best, No. 3 starter in the game.
Here is how Hamels and Gonzalez stack up over the last two years:
| PLAYER | YEAR | G | GS | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB | WHIP | GB/FB | X/H(%) |
| Gonzalez | 2011 | 32 | 32 | 202.0 | 3.12 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 2.16 | 1.317 | 0.90 | 25 |
| Hamels | 2011 | 32 | 31 | 216.0 | 2.79 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 4.41 | 0.986 | 1.14 | 31 |
| Gonzalez | 2010-11 | 65 | 65 | 402.2 | 3.17 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.01 | 1.314 | 0.94 | 25 |
| Hamels | 2010-11 | 65 | 64 | 424.2 | 2.92 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 3.86 | 1.081 | 0.99 | 35 |
2) How would this help the Phillies?
Theoretically, it would enable them to trade Hamels, which would lower their payroll for at least the next two years and allow them to acquire some significant young pieces.
Shane Victorino can become a free agent after next season. Carlos Ruiz, likewise. Placido Polanco's contract will be up. Chase Utley isn't getting any younger. Jimmy Rollins still isn't signed to a contract.
What if the Phillies were able to use Hamels to acquire the pieces necessary to acquire a player like David Wright? Are the Phillies better off with Wright and Gonzalez or with Hamels and Polanco and whoever might replace him? What if the series of deals also left them with a prospect like Blue Jays catcher Travis D'Arnaud, who has developed into one of the top prospects in the game since the Phillies traded him away for Halladay?
3) What are the chances of such a deal happening?
Remote. I just can't see Oakland and the Phillies matching up on a deal. Keep in mind, the A's would not appear to be under any pressure to move Gonzalez for salary reasons. Any team that wants to pry him away would have to offer a huge package. In other words, Domonic Brown and Vance Worley or Kyle Kendrick probably isn't going to get it done. Because Gonzalez is inexpensive and under club control, teams like the Diamondbacks and the Nationals and the Marlins and other so-called "small-market" teams should have the payroll room to accomodate Gonzalez. Gonzalez would improve these teams more than he would improve the Phillies, which means those teams have more incentive to acquire him, which means those teams are probably in better position to meet Oakland's undoubtedly steep demands.
Meanwhile, from the Phillies point of view, there are probably enough potential drawbacks to temper any offer. Gonzalez has a much higher walk rate than Hamels. He has never pitched more than 202 innings in a season. He has just two full seasons under his belt. His ERA away from the cavernous Oakland Coliseum was 3.62 in 2011 and 3.92 in 2010 (compared with 2.70 and 2.56 at home).
Unless the Athletics covet Brown, it's hard to imagine the Phillies putting together the most attractive package.
Even if they did match up on a trade, there's no guarantee the Phillies would be able to turn Hamels into something that would help them this year or next year. Wright would seem to be a perfect fit, but are the Mets are in bad enough PR shape as it is. Are they really going to trade the face of their franchise to their fiercest rival? Maybe there is another potential target out there. The Blue Jays could use another top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Ricky Romero. But would D'Arnaud and other prospects be worth diminishing the 2012 roster? It's hard to imagine Toronto would be willing to deal young third baseman Brett Lawrie.
4) So what you're saying is. . .
It's an interesting rumor, and I don't doubt for a second that Amaro is out there exploring interest in his few bargaining chips: Hamels, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown, etc. But on paper, it's hard to see a deal getting done. Chalk this one up to things that have been kicked around without any sunstantive progress. But hey, it gave us something to write about.
Bring back Moyer too...— stan the man too- This article is completly made up. — Fritz and Alice
- Sometime in the next five years Hamels will have a season where he goes 25-3 with an ERA slighlty north of 2.00, and collect the Cy Young award. Then everyone will be paving his road to Cooperstown. He's that good. Getting rid of him is complete nonsense.— Mitre
- If there was a way to enter 2012 with Gonzalez instead of Oswalt and still retain Worley, that's fun stuff to fantasize about. But I agree it seems pretty unlikely. This rumor may at least indicate that RAJ is open to making some sort of trade we haven't yet imagined.
— s 
Comment removed.- I'm also waiting for that trade with the Rangers where we get David Murphy.— s
- Great rumor....that's why they have these Winter Meetings...interesting how the Phillies are not shy to re-engage on guys that were in the system, as many of us as fans continue to keep tabs on them...(it's one of the best things about being a fan). As far as Wright, he can veto his contract past this season if he's traded this year, essentially making him a rental unless his new team signs him up ....So that decreases his value greatly, and the Mets know it....Sentimentality aside, the business of baseball controls these decisions....Looks like J Rolls options are getting smaller, hope it's a fair deal here.— bearsfriend
- I totally agree. The Phillies should be turning over every stone looking for ways to reshape this lineup. Since October, my opinion has been that RAJ should pull a "Holmgren" and rebuild the lineup. If it means trading a Hamels, Utley or Victorino, then let's do it if it makes sense. My only problem is that I doubt RAJ has the smarts or the cojones to pull it off.— scootch
- trading Hamels is sheer lunacy, it's the kind of insane thinking that would probably haunt this franchise for years.........you could call it "the curse of Cole"— frisch16
- Hamels is the best pitcher on the roster. No way would I trade him, would rather unload Lees contract if you could convince the Yanks or Sox to take him.— B-Rooster
- You would think that both Domonic Brown and Vance Worley would be part of any package that Oakland would ask for. I always liked Gio. I saw him pitch for Reading a few times during that season that he spent there. He would be a nice addition to the staff. Cole has been a great, young pitcher in this city. He has multiple years of playoff and World Series experience. Can't forget about his 2008 World Series MVP award either. Unfortunately, we learned as fans, when Amaro traded Cliff Lee to Seattle, baseball is a business. Gio is a cost efficient long-term replacement for Hamels in the rotation. Nothing personal on Ryan Howard, but here is where his contract becomes crippling to The Phils. His production doesn't merit that monster contract, so Amaro may be handcuffed into trading Cole to a team like Toronto, who is looking to add a frontline starter and make the rest of the AL East nervous. Cole Hamels, is right now, the better pitcher of the two, but he rightfully will be looking for a big ticket very soon.— Seeing Red
- Heck of a post!....and kudos to Murphy taking a passing rumor and giving it full attention and detail...Compared to some of the other drivel I'm reading from our writers, this kid is emerging head and shoulders. If he'd get rid of the mountain man look, he'd get some head time on MLB. — bearsfriend
- It's hard to imagine this working out for one reason - money. Although the Phillies maybe are hitting their "cap" in terms of spending, they are still much more able to pay Hamels than almost any other team out there. Hamels trade value is diminished greatly (really almost to zero) when you consider he is a pending FA who you need to pay market value salaries for. So I don't see that end of the equation making sense even if a deal for Gio could be worked out. Let's face it - Hamels is more valuable to the Phillies than he is to anyone else, and the Phillies can afford to pay him more than just about any other team, so where is the logic in trading him?
I almost laughed out loud when I saw the Marlins and Nationals listed as small market teams. You mean the team that paid $126M to Jayson Werth and the one that is trying to pay Pujols $200M?— Phils Phan 28 - Do Not trade Hamels! He was the 2008 World Series MVP. How many atheletes in Philly have brought us a championship in the last 20 years? He should be untouchable until he is Moyer's age.— knicks84
- Hamels delivered a World Series. Enough said. Keep and pay him.— Sidewinder7
