Clearing up mis-conceptions, Part I
My original plan was to file another detailed blog post later tonight after I'd had a day to mull over the Halladay and Cliff Lee deals. But I ended up listening to a healthy dose of sports talk radio while running errands today - side note, they really should put cupholders on shopping carts - and kept hearing several illogical statements (insert joke about sports talk radio here) that need to be corrected.
Clearing up mis-conceptions, Part I
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
My original plan was to file another detailed blog post later tonight after I'd had a day to mull over the Halladay and Cliff Lee deals. But I ended up listening to a healthy dose of sports talk radio while running errands today - side note, they really should put cupholders on shopping carts - and kept hearing several illogical statements (insert joke about sports talk radio here) that need to be corrected.
Illogical Statement I: The Phillies should have just swung a trade for Halladay last deadline and had Cliff Lee and Halladay for two postseason runs.
Answer: While it is true that the package of prospects the Phillies ended up shipping to Toronto isn't a heck of a lot less than what the Blue Jays were reportedly offering last summer, the big issue here is money. Roy Halladay earned $14.25 million last season. The Phillies would have been on the hook for roughly $6.5 million of that. Add in the roughly $3.5 million they took on in salary for Cliff Lee, and you are talking $10 million extra dollars dumped into the budget midway through the fiscal sports year. That would be difficult for any business to absorb. Plus, the Phillies would have owed Halladay all of his $15.75 million salary for this season. Keep in mind the Blue Jays are kicking in $6 million toward Halladay's salary (at least that is what has been reported - I do not have that independently confirmed). And keep in mind that the Blue Jays were reportedly asking for Drabek AND Brown, along with Anthony Gose, with J.A. Happ and Jason Knapp (who was a key to the Lee trade) being kicked around. So the assertion that the Phillies are parting with the same package of prospects is a misnomer too. But even if it were the same package of prospects, the Phillies would have been taking on $12.5 million in salary in 2009 and 2010, in addition to Lee's salary.
You can argue that the Phils still could have swung the deal with the prospects they had. And given Lee's performance in the playoffs, you can argue that they very likely would have won a second straight World Series with Halladay and Lee perhaps starting Games 1, 2, 4, 5 and 7. But you can't argue the finances of it all.
Illogical Statement 2: Hamels is no longer a bona fide No. 2 starter in the majors and never will be because he is a two-pitch pitcher.
Answer: Look, nobody will argue that Hamels had a down year. And nobody will argue that he would be better suited for success -- particularly against lefties -- with a reliable third pitch. But even in 2008, when Hamels was a playoff stud, he threw his curveball on just 13.7 percent of his pitches (according to FanGraphs.com). That dropped to 10.5 percent last season. But he threw the curve just 10.6 percent of the time in 2007, when he was far more successful than last season. Hamels biggest problem wasn't with his curve ball. It was with his command of his fastball and change-up. Hamels can succeed with just two pitches, but to do so he needs to be in complete control of them. Last year, he wasn't. You can argue that he will never be in control of his fastball and change-up again. And you can argue that he needs to better develop a third pitch. But I don't think you can argue that he is done for his career because he doesn't have a third pitch. Keep in mind, this guy was outstanding in 2008, and was pretty darn good in 2007. He is 25 years old, for crying out loud. Cliff Lee's first full big league season was at the age of 25.
Illogical Statement 3: The Phillies were forced to choose between one year of Cliff Lee and four years of Roy Halladay.
Answer: Not true. They did not trade for four years of Roy Halladay. They traded for one year of Roy Halladay, plus exclusive negotiating rights with him. Keep in mind the Phillies will be paying $20 million a year to Halladay for at least three seasons, and maybe four and five. That's a lot of money. The Phillies could have kept Cliff Lee and their prospects this year and then invested the money they would be paying Halladay into a guy like Javier Vazquez, and likely had plenty of cash left over to invest in other areas of the team. But they wanted Halladay. You can easily argue that it was a wise investment, since Halladay likely would have commanded more on the open market. And if you look at our previous post, you'll see that plenty of elite pitchers have thrived between the ages of 33-36. But the Phillies did not trade for an elite pitcher who was under contract for the next four seasons. They traded for one year of him, and in the process negotiated an extension for the next three.
There. I feel better now.
Poll: Who would you rather have, Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee?
gbentzel, since you have such a firm grasp on the finances of a major league franchise, to hell with Rube, when can you start?— yougottabelieve26
Comment removed.- should have traded Blanton...— goindeep23
- gbentzel/ed: see attached: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_Philadelphia-Phillies_335119.html Phils organization cleared 16.3 Million after taxes in 2008. (WS championship yr) Not saying they couldnt make up that money comewhere else, but this team does not have the unlimited resources you people think.
- Supposing it takes Hamels until 2011 or 2012 to figure out how to be more than a .500 pitcher. In the meantime, the Phillies don't have enough pitching to compete with the American League because they just traded away Cliff Lee.— Gnip Gnop
- I get the fact that the Phils are a business with a budget but the decision to sell Lee is beyond frustrating. They are the two time defending National League champs with close to 7 million in paid attendance and great local tv and radio numbers over that time frame. This all translates into big bucks for the franchise. Selling Lee is not about staying profitable but about making more money. That's their decision, as it is mine to not purchase tickets or support them financially in any other manner. It pains me to say it, but the Phils are a joke.— sjm414
- Scooter, the problem with your plan is you lose Lee after next year for nothing. My issue is how does Toronto get more than in July, they had the use of him the second half of the season! and Seattle's prospects better damn well replace Taylor, Drabek and D'Arnoud. Otherwise we paid for a CY twice!— robinlupe
- Murph, I know you read these comments to your articles once in a while. As Ed Wade would say..."do your due dilligence" and find out when they started on this deal and if it was last week why did they offer arbitration on blanton when they could have used that $7million or so towards keeping Lee. was it because the Halladay trade took some good prospects and they felt that had to replenish somewhat? Get to work son.... Show that weak Andy Martino how to handle his business..— sjmatt99
- While i mostly agree with you, i think point 3 is a distinction without a difference. I understand that technically the trade was not for a guy locked up for 4 years, but if they had not been able to lock him up, my impression is the deal would have fallen through. So i see your point, but i'm not sure that it matters in practical terms. If they had not been able to work out an extension with Halladay, i'm sure they just would have taken their chances with Lee. Clearly this was a major consideration in doing the deal. As far as the money issue, it seems they took a calculated risk that Lee would want more next year than Halladay wants now...— duder
- yougottabelieve26 - immediately. Glad you asked. tony thunder - according to attendance figures, the Phils drew an additional 180,000 fans in 2009. 180,000 x $50 = $9M (quite a coincidence). Also, ticket prices have been raised for 2010, and it's safe to assume that merchandise sales and media revenue are at an all-time high, too. I know the resources aren't unlimited, but if things are so tight, why offer Blanton $7M for one year instead of Lee for $9M?— gbentzel
- gbentzel- yeah. beacuse player salary is the ONLY thing the Phillies pay for. All their hundreds of employees work for free, I guess. The energy bill at the stadium is $0 and they don't have to pay anything to maintain the stadium. I also assume the stadium is tax free? Furthermore, travel accommodations for the players and team personnel is free. The players they draft take a salary of $0, as do the hundreds of players and coaches in the farm system. I could go on, but I think you get the point. Only 60% of an average team's revenue goes to players. The other 40% goes to other things. But hey, feel free to call people idiots all you want when you've done zero research on the subject. Read up: http://www.askmen.com/sports/business/14_sports_business.html— psalveso
- Why do people insist on feeling that the Phillies are trading Lee for Halliday? From what I understand, there are two separate trades here. One with the Blue Jays, which we are trading propects to, and we are getting Halliday, and a separate deal with Seattle which we are trading them Lee for prospects. I don't believe that the two deals are linked in any way, like a true three team trade would be. It is clear that the trade of Lee is ONLY to reduce salary. I find that to be a joke. If we kept Lee for next year, and THEN he left - we would 1) Have had the services of Lee for the year (for a relative "discount" price of $9M 2) Kept our prospects which are superior to the prospects we are getting from Seattle, and 3) Have gotten two draft picks for losing Lee.— Bobphxville
- Jamie Moyer should have took one for the team and Retired - That would have given The Phillies the 9 million to keep Lee right there - It is going to be very frustrating watching Moyer sit on the bench all year or pitching slop - when we could have had Lee AND Halladay at the top of the rotation. The Good feeling toward Jamie Moyer - Hometown Hero - is fading fast.— phillydude
- Robin, I'd be fine w/ them loosing Lee after this season. He would be a highly rated free agent, giving the Philles draft consideration of 2(i think, possibly just 1) first round picks. I still like that option better...— scooterg99
- bentzel...don't forgot about all of the costs associated with a business like salaries of all the other phillies employees, utilities, and so on— danowick
