Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
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Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
For the last decade, Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies' leadoff hitter have been one in the same. But an honest evaluation of the roster moving forward will require the front office to grade those two aspects separately. Rollins the short stop is still a solid major league hitter. His .715 OPS ranks 11th out of 24 major league short stops with at least 300 plate appearances. That's .001 behind Starlin Castro and .24 behind Derek Jeter. In fact, Castro's .272/.304/.412 line is some pretty good context for Rollins' .246/.306/.409 line. While Rollins has clearly regressed at the plate in recent years, he is still providing production that the majority of teams would be happy with. His on base percentage ranks 12th, while his slugging percentage ranks seventh. He also ranks sixth with 18 stolen bases.
Rollins the leadoff hitter is a separate issue. Only three National League teams have a lower on base percentage than the .309 the Phillies have posted at the leadoff spot. They rank 11th with a .250 batting average but fourth with a .410 slugging percentage. Phillies leadoff hitters are ninth with 69 runs scored and third with 46 RBI.
The perception amongst a lot of readers who have emailed me about this topic is that Charlie Manuel is forever wedded to Rollins as his leadoff hitter. But I don't know that I buy that perception.
Today, I asked Manuel if he fan foresee a time in the near future when Rollins is not his leadoff hitter.
"The older he gets, and that's probably natural, he's a different kind of hitter," Manuel said. "He is definitely a different kind of hitter. When he's knocking in 75 to 95 runs and he's scoring 100, he was definitely a different player, and he was definitely a different leadoff hitter, because of the extra base hits and things. You can look at leadoff hitters anyway you want to, it's still a position in the lineup where guys have to get on base a lot."
The biggest issue, at least the way I see it, is the Phillies haven't really had a better option this season. Juan Pierre has been the people's choice, but Pierre's shortcomings on defense are the reason why he hasn't been an everyday player throughout the season. And the gain that you would get by moving Rollins out of the leadoff spot on days when Pierre starts might not be worth the risk you take in Rollins adapting to whatever lineup spot you move him to. It might not make sense to those of us not in uniform, but it does seem to matter to those in uniform. It just does. You can argue that it shouldn't. But I have heard the manager say that it does, and I have heard several players say that it does, and I have seen several players struggle when batting outside of their comfort zone. In this case, perception is an unfortunate reality.
But the one area the Phillies will need to improve moving forward is the base-reaching ability of the top half of their lineup. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, which means he gets the most opportunities to make outs, which suggests a team would be better served batting one of its better out-avoiders at the top of the order.
That player who can improve the leadoff spot, at least from the perspective of the 2013 lineup, probably is not on the roster right now. Domonic Brown has shown a keen eye at the plate and a propensity for getting on base in the couple of weeks that he has been with the team. But I don't see the Phillies going that direction, especially if Brown eventually develops the power that they are hoping for. Michael Bourn would be a better fit than Rollins, but I have serious doubts about whether the Phillies will out-bid the plethora of teams who figure to be in the market for the speedy center fielder.
For what it's worth, Manuel did not rule out the possibility of Pierre returning next season. But logic suggests he will not be returning in an everyday role.
Manuel also said he thought Rollins would be open to hitting somewhere other than the top of the order. The list of potential free agents is not exactly chock full of options. Still, the numbers suggest that the Phillies would be wise to take an active approach and give their manager a good reason to have a conversation with his longtime leadoff man.
I love the "out avoidance" language. Offensive baseball should be thought of in terms of you get to keep scoring until you make 27 outs, so you should avoid outs at all costs. I am, though, a little miffed at the line-up shuffling rationale. What's going to happen if Rollins is shuffled around the line-up? He'll hit .245, but have an excuse?— jtj06- need better hitters in the no. 1, no. 2, no. 3, no.4 , no. 5, no 6 , no.7 and no.8 spots (and off the bench)...other than that Clueless Rube has put together quite an amazing team for only $175 million/yr— warbiscuit
- "the risk you take in Rollins adapting to whatever lineup spot you move him to."
hard to believe rollins gets a reputation from the media as a team first guy.
refuses to move down in the lineup CHECK
refuses to be patient at the plate CHECK
refuses to change positions CHECK
refuses to take a "hometown discount" CHECK
refuses to hustle to 1st every at bat CHECK
not to worry, he jokes and smiles with manuel every game in the dugout, so its def. worth it (not). it looks like we are stuck with rolling for another 2 years (probably 3) thanks to Ruben Amaro Jr. screwup #176— astroqueen0 - You logic suggests that teams ought to field a team with the highest possible OBP - but a team with a good mix of high OPB players and high slugging players will produce far more runs, even if there are players available with higher OBPs than the sluggers.
Avoid outs? Yes, but not "at all costs."— judas_priest - In the abstract, my logic is foolproof. If you don't make outs it doesn't matter if you get on via errors, doubles, or HRs. Everybody knows how the Gashouse Gorillas did it, and they scored 95 runs in 4 innings. — jtj06
- Really? Manuel should now have this conversation with JNoRoll? He should have had it 3-4 years ago, and Amaro should have also before he re-signed him over the winter. It's just a tad late now.
For those of you who've not played the game, even at the Little League WS, you will see lineups full of 12 yo's who each have a job to do and a special skill to display at their spot in the order. For a well oiled Championship caliber team, that has to happen. It has to be able to coordinate an offensive attack on many levels. The lineup has to have power, speed, OBP, patience, hustle and situational hitting in all the right places for the lineup to fire on all cylinders. The '12 Phils had no chance from the get-go with Howard and Utley missing for half the season, all the new players being shuffled around in the lineup and all the other guys on the DL, no flippin' chance. If the lineup doesn't change more next year and they repeat the same bad luck as a team with injuries, they'll have zero chance next year, too. Injuries are just bad luck. Stocking your team with the wrong players with the wrong talents and expecting them to produce a solid, coordinated offensive attack is just plain bad planning.
New blood, a sincere attempt at a new approach and a hunger to win (along with a little luck) are the keys. Question is, can Amaro learn to be an astute locksmith over the next 5 months? I haven't seen it so much yet......— Mark1npt 
Comment removed.- Though much of what you say has merit, the most striking thing about your post is that it actually got posted.
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- btw....I said it last year after they got knocked out of the playoffs without scoring even 1 stinking run in the 5th game and I said it all winter long.....the Cards won the whole thing because they had a lineup stacked with guys hitting .290, 295, .300, etc. all through the lineup and off the bench, too. That beats a team full of guys hitting .230, 240, .250 every single time. You can take all your geeky stats and it all comes down to having hitters with higher batting averages and the pitchers with more wins than the other teams. All the other stuff is just fluffy window dressing to justify exorbitant arbitration contracts and make a name for oneself, i.e. Bill James. It really is that simple.— Mark1npt
- It's easy to see why the silly, old fool has never finioshed higher thaqn 3rd in any Manager of then Year vote. He's a fat, bloated Stevie Wonder.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Love it when Wilhelm calls Charlie a "silly old fool". — Larry Brown
- Remember Phils signed Hamels, and have one of best closers in league -- Papelbon. With Halladay, that in itself will allow them to compete next year. Middle relief definitely will be improved.
Please don't underestimate signing of Hamels. That was huge accomplishment. He can win next year 2-1, 3-2.— 2smart4philly - OPS is misleading. I think it's sometimes better to be 4 for 4 with 4 singles than 1 for 4 with a home run. At least being on base 4 times is more of a disruption to the opposing pitcher and could create opportunities for the players that bat behind Rollins.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- COMPLETELY DISAGREE. If that homerun is a 3-run homer that is wayyyyyyyyyyy more important than 4 singles.
- Rollins was, is, and will always be a terrible lead-off hitter. The Phillies team has suffered because of it. But to change now is a good thing, better late than never.— chucksf
- so the phils havent had a better option in leadoff all season, murphy? what about victorino? i like manuel's non-answer when he was asked about rollins hitting somewhere other than leadoff... i am baffled at how murphy continues to stretch the truth when it comes to rollins miserable plate performance.. if we kept valdez and started him at short instead of re-signing rollins, how much dropoff offensively could we expect - not much.. and with the money from rollins outrageously generous contract saved, we would have been able to sign victorino next year.. this team is horrible. it is ruben amaro's fault but monty wont hold him accountable because all he and the owners ever really cared about were consecutive sellouts - not consecutive world series championships— zwarte piet
- Bat Rollins sixth. Sixth hitter often leads off an inning.— pedge
- Murphy, are you nuts? "Rollins the shortstop is still a solid major league hitter"? He's hitting .245!!!! Why are you such a Rollins apologist? Signing him was clearly a mistake, especially at $11 million a year. And listing his stats against other shortstops means nothing. It just means he's one of the better lousy shortstops. Doesn't hardly make him worth $11 million.— Larry Brown
- I too believe the real Phils leadoff hitter is not yet on the team. It may be Rollins again, by default. We've been spoiled watching a guy like Dykstra batting lead off all those years ago and we all think it is easy enough for Rollins to work a pitcher like Lenny used to. 2 different players with 2 different approaches at the plate.— DelawareRiverRat
- - I can't tell you who should be the leadoff hitter, but I can tell you who definitely should not be- and that's JRoll.
- Charlie is afraid to move JRoll from the leadoff spot, and has been for several years...only he knows why
- Why does Rollins continue to get a pass on not running out ground balls, popups,etc.?
- Jimmy had been my favorite Phil since the early 2000s, but his act has been wearing thin for several years... He might think of himself as a Ricky Henderson type, and there's no glory in a SS hitting out of the 6-7-8 spots, which is where he belongs— Polecat_39 - Pierre vs. Rollins is irrelevant at this point. We'll have a different leadoff guy next year, no question. For now: Why not Dom Brown? He has multiple tools and might relish it. Let Pierre bat second and Rollins can get used to 7th.— eman
- The truth is that the lead-off position is only symbolic. After the 1st inning, who knows who will be leading off the next inning. What you want at the end of the game is to have your best hitters have more plate appearances than the weaker hitters. So, they should be at the top. OPS versus that handed pitcher (lefty or right) is the best stat. In fact, the lineup should be arranged in order of descending OPS.— Steve Jeltz, the home-run king
- well... j-roll, is the one i'd like to see leading off.his lead-off hr beat the marlins tonite.l.J-Roll is my choice to lead off.until someone else comes in ,he's the choice.gg tonite phils.— t_darb_56
- Jeltz HR King: In most years, the Phillies batting order would have Ryan Howard leading off. Good idea in theory but it shows why OPS is flawed. It's a one size fits all stat. The ideal lineup would have players with a good OBP up in the lineup. Maybe the best OPS guy batting third. Then the best slugging pct guy batting 4th.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- The guy who picks the pictures has a sense of humor (lil jimmie Popup looking up at one of his popups).
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- When it comes to the Stroll, Murphy will rationalize the absurd. Don't understand his fascination with a mediocre shortstop with a bad attitude, a shortstop that a real manager would have reined in a long time ago. A shortstop deserving of critical comment.— wo_fat
- There is always some genius who says Rollins demands to bat leadoff. Like he can make that happen. How many errors does Castro have? If you dont have defense at SS, 2B and CF your in trouble. The answer to the Castro question is 16. Rollins has 8. Rollins frustrates me also. Hits to many balls in the air. Still he gives you the good D at SS.— don whitman
- CHARLEY thinks that ROLLINS is open to moving elsewhere in the lineup.Who the H..L is the manager. FRANCONA aallowed SCHILLING to whisper in his ear.Where is FRANCONA now? MANUEL doesn't have a clue.From batting UTLEY and HOWARD back to back,is bad enough, but come the late innings it becomes a disaster. It plays into the opposing managers strength,left handed relievers to face UTLEY and HOWARD.NO CHANCE,as they can not hit lefties. Good bye CHARLEY!!!!!— tudj
- Hey, dems_are_closed_minded...Why don't you edify us all with your profound insight, about the "PC" real reason that JRoll is exempt from negative criticism, you know, "the obvious" reason. For those of us who are dwarfed by your intellectual transcendence, please tell us how we may be worthy of having you on this board, Oh Great One! Since your genius is unparalleled.— laser5
- BTW the picture with the article rules. At some point Rollins will miss time with a strained neck.— jtj06
I hope nobody believes that Manuel will move Rollins out of the one hole. First of all, he doesn't possess the cahones to move Rollins where he belongs (7 or 8 hole). Secondly, Manuel is a complete idiot. Take that in tandem and you have a perpetual disaster regarding the "leadership" that exists in the dugout. Smug Amaro, are you listening? Of course not. You're as clueless as the man you continue to place in charge of your team.- Has anyone noticed that the Phils keep advancing in the wild card race. Mets next to fall! Just sayin'— wjs
- Murphy, I'm really getting to despise your columns.
No mention that Castro is having a down year - or that he makes less than a tenth of what Jimmy makes. Why don't you just write columns for political blogs where your political correctness will be appreciated.— Cameiros - Why would media be afraid to say anything agsinst any player? I would prefer honest opinion rather than the agenda some have when they blog and to some extent the writers have to coexist with the players. I remember about 30 years ago a comment was made about Carlton's wife and player rightly felt it was over the top.— don whitman
- On this current roster, Juan Pierre should be hitting leadoff. This is about as much a no brainer as possible, I guess except for an actual no brainer like Cholly. If you want to throw the defensive liabilty card on Pierre,...is he any worse than any of the other outfield gloves? Rollins' .245 BA and .305 OBP would be fine for a SS hitting somewhere between 6-8, but is epic fail for a leadoff hitter.
Picture for the article is pure win.— Only in Philly... - Seriously, Rollins needs the big shakeup!!! He is a pathetic leadoff hitter...Dom Brown or Frandsen would be big improvements.....— westie33
