Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
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Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
For the last decade, Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies' leadoff hitter have been one in the same. But an honest evaluation of the roster moving forward will require the front office to grade those two aspects separately. Rollins the short stop is still a solid major league hitter. His .715 OPS ranks 11th out of 24 major league short stops with at least 300 plate appearances. That's .001 behind Starlin Castro and .24 behind Derek Jeter. In fact, Castro's .272/.304/.412 line is some pretty good context for Rollins' .246/.306/.409 line. While Rollins has clearly regressed at the plate in recent years, he is still providing production that the majority of teams would be happy with. His on base percentage ranks 12th, while his slugging percentage ranks seventh. He also ranks sixth with 18 stolen bases.
Rollins the leadoff hitter is a separate issue. Only three National League teams have a lower on base percentage than the .309 the Phillies have posted at the leadoff spot. They rank 11th with a .250 batting average but fourth with a .410 slugging percentage. Phillies leadoff hitters are ninth with 69 runs scored and third with 46 RBI.
The perception amongst a lot of readers who have emailed me about this topic is that Charlie Manuel is forever wedded to Rollins as his leadoff hitter. But I don't know that I buy that perception.
Today, I asked Manuel if he fan foresee a time in the near future when Rollins is not his leadoff hitter.
"The older he gets, and that's probably natural, he's a different kind of hitter," Manuel said. "He is definitely a different kind of hitter. When he's knocking in 75 to 95 runs and he's scoring 100, he was definitely a different player, and he was definitely a different leadoff hitter, because of the extra base hits and things. You can look at leadoff hitters anyway you want to, it's still a position in the lineup where guys have to get on base a lot."
The biggest issue, at least the way I see it, is the Phillies haven't really had a better option this season. Juan Pierre has been the people's choice, but Pierre's shortcomings on defense are the reason why he hasn't been an everyday player throughout the season. And the gain that you would get by moving Rollins out of the leadoff spot on days when Pierre starts might not be worth the risk you take in Rollins adapting to whatever lineup spot you move him to. It might not make sense to those of us not in uniform, but it does seem to matter to those in uniform. It just does. You can argue that it shouldn't. But I have heard the manager say that it does, and I have heard several players say that it does, and I have seen several players struggle when batting outside of their comfort zone. In this case, perception is an unfortunate reality.
But the one area the Phillies will need to improve moving forward is the base-reaching ability of the top half of their lineup. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, which means he gets the most opportunities to make outs, which suggests a team would be better served batting one of its better out-avoiders at the top of the order.
That player who can improve the leadoff spot, at least from the perspective of the 2013 lineup, probably is not on the roster right now. Domonic Brown has shown a keen eye at the plate and a propensity for getting on base in the couple of weeks that he has been with the team. But I don't see the Phillies going that direction, especially if Brown eventually develops the power that they are hoping for. Michael Bourn would be a better fit than Rollins, but I have serious doubts about whether the Phillies will out-bid the plethora of teams who figure to be in the market for the speedy center fielder.
For what it's worth, Manuel did not rule out the possibility of Pierre returning next season. But logic suggests he will not be returning in an everyday role.
Manuel also said he thought Rollins would be open to hitting somewhere other than the top of the order. The list of potential free agents is not exactly chock full of options. Still, the numbers suggest that the Phillies would be wise to take an active approach and give their manager a good reason to have a conversation with his longtime leadoff man.
Rollins was, is, and will always be a terrible lead-off hitter. The Phillies team has suffered because of it. But to change now is a good thing, better late than never.— chucksf- so the phils havent had a better option in leadoff all season, murphy? what about victorino? i like manuel's non-answer when he was asked about rollins hitting somewhere other than leadoff... i am baffled at how murphy continues to stretch the truth when it comes to rollins miserable plate performance.. if we kept valdez and started him at short instead of re-signing rollins, how much dropoff offensively could we expect - not much.. and with the money from rollins outrageously generous contract saved, we would have been able to sign victorino next year.. this team is horrible. it is ruben amaro's fault but monty wont hold him accountable because all he and the owners ever really cared about were consecutive sellouts - not consecutive world series championships— zwarte piet
- Bat Rollins sixth. Sixth hitter often leads off an inning.— pedge
- Murphy, are you nuts? "Rollins the shortstop is still a solid major league hitter"? He's hitting .245!!!! Why are you such a Rollins apologist? Signing him was clearly a mistake, especially at $11 million a year. And listing his stats against other shortstops means nothing. It just means he's one of the better lousy shortstops. Doesn't hardly make him worth $11 million.— Larry Brown
- I too believe the real Phils leadoff hitter is not yet on the team. It may be Rollins again, by default. We've been spoiled watching a guy like Dykstra batting lead off all those years ago and we all think it is easy enough for Rollins to work a pitcher like Lenny used to. 2 different players with 2 different approaches at the plate.— DelawareRiverRat
- - I can't tell you who should be the leadoff hitter, but I can tell you who definitely should not be- and that's JRoll.
- Charlie is afraid to move JRoll from the leadoff spot, and has been for several years...only he knows why
- Why does Rollins continue to get a pass on not running out ground balls, popups,etc.?
- Jimmy had been my favorite Phil since the early 2000s, but his act has been wearing thin for several years... He might think of himself as a Ricky Henderson type, and there's no glory in a SS hitting out of the 6-7-8 spots, which is where he belongs— Polecat_39 - Pierre vs. Rollins is irrelevant at this point. We'll have a different leadoff guy next year, no question. For now: Why not Dom Brown? He has multiple tools and might relish it. Let Pierre bat second and Rollins can get used to 7th.— eman
- The truth is that the lead-off position is only symbolic. After the 1st inning, who knows who will be leading off the next inning. What you want at the end of the game is to have your best hitters have more plate appearances than the weaker hitters. So, they should be at the top. OPS versus that handed pitcher (lefty or right) is the best stat. In fact, the lineup should be arranged in order of descending OPS.— Steve Jeltz, the home-run king
- well... j-roll, is the one i'd like to see leading off.his lead-off hr beat the marlins tonite.l.J-Roll is my choice to lead off.until someone else comes in ,he's the choice.gg tonite phils.— t_darb_56
- Jeltz HR King: In most years, the Phillies batting order would have Ryan Howard leading off. Good idea in theory but it shows why OPS is flawed. It's a one size fits all stat. The ideal lineup would have players with a good OBP up in the lineup. Maybe the best OPS guy batting third. Then the best slugging pct guy batting 4th.— AvoidSundanceVacations
The guy who picks the pictures has a sense of humor (lil jimmie Popup looking up at one of his popups).
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- When it comes to the Stroll, Murphy will rationalize the absurd. Don't understand his fascination with a mediocre shortstop with a bad attitude, a shortstop that a real manager would have reined in a long time ago. A shortstop deserving of critical comment.— wo_fat
- There is always some genius who says Rollins demands to bat leadoff. Like he can make that happen. How many errors does Castro have? If you dont have defense at SS, 2B and CF your in trouble. The answer to the Castro question is 16. Rollins has 8. Rollins frustrates me also. Hits to many balls in the air. Still he gives you the good D at SS.— don whitman
- CHARLEY thinks that ROLLINS is open to moving elsewhere in the lineup.Who the H..L is the manager. FRANCONA aallowed SCHILLING to whisper in his ear.Where is FRANCONA now? MANUEL doesn't have a clue.From batting UTLEY and HOWARD back to back,is bad enough, but come the late innings it becomes a disaster. It plays into the opposing managers strength,left handed relievers to face UTLEY and HOWARD.NO CHANCE,as they can not hit lefties. Good bye CHARLEY!!!!!— tudj
