Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
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Charlie Manuel discusses the Phillies' situation at leadoff moving forward
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
For the last decade, Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies' leadoff hitter have been one in the same. But an honest evaluation of the roster moving forward will require the front office to grade those two aspects separately. Rollins the short stop is still a solid major league hitter. His .715 OPS ranks 11th out of 24 major league short stops with at least 300 plate appearances. That's .001 behind Starlin Castro and .24 behind Derek Jeter. In fact, Castro's .272/.304/.412 line is some pretty good context for Rollins' .246/.306/.409 line. While Rollins has clearly regressed at the plate in recent years, he is still providing production that the majority of teams would be happy with. His on base percentage ranks 12th, while his slugging percentage ranks seventh. He also ranks sixth with 18 stolen bases.
Rollins the leadoff hitter is a separate issue. Only three National League teams have a lower on base percentage than the .309 the Phillies have posted at the leadoff spot. They rank 11th with a .250 batting average but fourth with a .410 slugging percentage. Phillies leadoff hitters are ninth with 69 runs scored and third with 46 RBI.
The perception amongst a lot of readers who have emailed me about this topic is that Charlie Manuel is forever wedded to Rollins as his leadoff hitter. But I don't know that I buy that perception.
Today, I asked Manuel if he fan foresee a time in the near future when Rollins is not his leadoff hitter.
"The older he gets, and that's probably natural, he's a different kind of hitter," Manuel said. "He is definitely a different kind of hitter. When he's knocking in 75 to 95 runs and he's scoring 100, he was definitely a different player, and he was definitely a different leadoff hitter, because of the extra base hits and things. You can look at leadoff hitters anyway you want to, it's still a position in the lineup where guys have to get on base a lot."
The biggest issue, at least the way I see it, is the Phillies haven't really had a better option this season. Juan Pierre has been the people's choice, but Pierre's shortcomings on defense are the reason why he hasn't been an everyday player throughout the season. And the gain that you would get by moving Rollins out of the leadoff spot on days when Pierre starts might not be worth the risk you take in Rollins adapting to whatever lineup spot you move him to. It might not make sense to those of us not in uniform, but it does seem to matter to those in uniform. It just does. You can argue that it shouldn't. But I have heard the manager say that it does, and I have heard several players say that it does, and I have seen several players struggle when batting outside of their comfort zone. In this case, perception is an unfortunate reality.
But the one area the Phillies will need to improve moving forward is the base-reaching ability of the top half of their lineup. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, which means he gets the most opportunities to make outs, which suggests a team would be better served batting one of its better out-avoiders at the top of the order.
That player who can improve the leadoff spot, at least from the perspective of the 2013 lineup, probably is not on the roster right now. Domonic Brown has shown a keen eye at the plate and a propensity for getting on base in the couple of weeks that he has been with the team. But I don't see the Phillies going that direction, especially if Brown eventually develops the power that they are hoping for. Michael Bourn would be a better fit than Rollins, but I have serious doubts about whether the Phillies will out-bid the plethora of teams who figure to be in the market for the speedy center fielder.
For what it's worth, Manuel did not rule out the possibility of Pierre returning next season. But logic suggests he will not be returning in an everyday role.
Manuel also said he thought Rollins would be open to hitting somewhere other than the top of the order. The list of potential free agents is not exactly chock full of options. Still, the numbers suggest that the Phillies would be wise to take an active approach and give their manager a good reason to have a conversation with his longtime leadoff man.
I love the "out avoidance" language. Offensive baseball should be thought of in terms of you get to keep scoring until you make 27 outs, so you should avoid outs at all costs. I am, though, a little miffed at the line-up shuffling rationale. What's going to happen if Rollins is shuffled around the line-up? He'll hit .245, but have an excuse?— jtj06- need better hitters in the no. 1, no. 2, no. 3, no.4 , no. 5, no 6 , no.7 and no.8 spots (and off the bench)...other than that Clueless Rube has put together quite an amazing team for only $175 million/yr— warbiscuit
- "the risk you take in Rollins adapting to whatever lineup spot you move him to."
hard to believe rollins gets a reputation from the media as a team first guy.
refuses to move down in the lineup CHECK
refuses to be patient at the plate CHECK
refuses to change positions CHECK
refuses to take a "hometown discount" CHECK
refuses to hustle to 1st every at bat CHECK
not to worry, he jokes and smiles with manuel every game in the dugout, so its def. worth it (not). it looks like we are stuck with rolling for another 2 years (probably 3) thanks to Ruben Amaro Jr. screwup #176— astroqueen0 - You logic suggests that teams ought to field a team with the highest possible OBP - but a team with a good mix of high OPB players and high slugging players will produce far more runs, even if there are players available with higher OBPs than the sluggers.
Avoid outs? Yes, but not "at all costs."— judas_priest - In the abstract, my logic is foolproof. If you don't make outs it doesn't matter if you get on via errors, doubles, or HRs. Everybody knows how the Gashouse Gorillas did it, and they scored 95 runs in 4 innings. — jtj06
- Really? Manuel should now have this conversation with JNoRoll? He should have had it 3-4 years ago, and Amaro should have also before he re-signed him over the winter. It's just a tad late now.
For those of you who've not played the game, even at the Little League WS, you will see lineups full of 12 yo's who each have a job to do and a special skill to display at their spot in the order. For a well oiled Championship caliber team, that has to happen. It has to be able to coordinate an offensive attack on many levels. The lineup has to have power, speed, OBP, patience, hustle and situational hitting in all the right places for the lineup to fire on all cylinders. The '12 Phils had no chance from the get-go with Howard and Utley missing for half the season, all the new players being shuffled around in the lineup and all the other guys on the DL, no flippin' chance. If the lineup doesn't change more next year and they repeat the same bad luck as a team with injuries, they'll have zero chance next year, too. Injuries are just bad luck. Stocking your team with the wrong players with the wrong talents and expecting them to produce a solid, coordinated offensive attack is just plain bad planning.
New blood, a sincere attempt at a new approach and a hunger to win (along with a little luck) are the keys. Question is, can Amaro learn to be an astute locksmith over the next 5 months? I haven't seen it so much yet......— Mark1npt 
Comment removed.- Though much of what you say has merit, the most striking thing about your post is that it actually got posted.
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- btw....I said it last year after they got knocked out of the playoffs without scoring even 1 stinking run in the 5th game and I said it all winter long.....the Cards won the whole thing because they had a lineup stacked with guys hitting .290, 295, .300, etc. all through the lineup and off the bench, too. That beats a team full of guys hitting .230, 240, .250 every single time. You can take all your geeky stats and it all comes down to having hitters with higher batting averages and the pitchers with more wins than the other teams. All the other stuff is just fluffy window dressing to justify exorbitant arbitration contracts and make a name for oneself, i.e. Bill James. It really is that simple.— Mark1npt
- It's easy to see why the silly, old fool has never finioshed higher thaqn 3rd in any Manager of then Year vote. He's a fat, bloated Stevie Wonder.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Love it when Wilhelm calls Charlie a "silly old fool". — Larry Brown
- Remember Phils signed Hamels, and have one of best closers in league -- Papelbon. With Halladay, that in itself will allow them to compete next year. Middle relief definitely will be improved.
Please don't underestimate signing of Hamels. That was huge accomplishment. He can win next year 2-1, 3-2.— 2smart4philly - OPS is misleading. I think it's sometimes better to be 4 for 4 with 4 singles than 1 for 4 with a home run. At least being on base 4 times is more of a disruption to the opposing pitcher and could create opportunities for the players that bat behind Rollins.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- COMPLETELY DISAGREE. If that homerun is a 3-run homer that is wayyyyyyyyyyy more important than 4 singles.
