Change of approach: Envisioning a new Phillies lineup
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Change of approach: Envisioning a new Phillies lineup
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
EDIT, 5:39 P.M. -- I mistakenly used Victorino's spray chart for Rollins. The correct one is now below.
***The charts below were compiled thanks to the fine folks over at TexasLeaguers.com. Their PitchF/X database is among the best.***
Earlier, we looked at each of the Phillies regulars and examined how they might change their approaches to achieve the improvement that Ruben Amaro Jr. envisions from his existing players. This followed an overview of the Phillies philosophy moving forward, one that needs to combine a change in approach and a change in personnel.
Again, we'll delve into each of the aforementioned players and situations in greater detail in subsequent blog posts. For now, though, this is the overview of the "new" Phillies approach:
-Turn Utley's emphasis from driving the ball to right-center to spraying the ball to all fields.
-Get Rollins to think groundball/line drive instead of line drive/flyball
-Don't let Victorino get to a point where he views himself as a power hitter. Try to train his focus on line drives and groundballs.
-Tell Ruiz to keep doing what he has been doing
-Keep Howard's focus on driving the ball, but try to get him to understand what pitches he can hit to reach base. A 3-1 fastball doesn't mean swing for the fences, nor does a 3-1 fastball on the outside corner mean you should wait for a better pitch, as long as you can put that ball into play in left field.
Manuel does not have complete control over his players' approach. He can preach until his mouth runs dry, but it is still up to the players to accept his philosophy, recognize the pitches that they can hit to reach base, and make good contact with those pitches. He also does not have complete control over the personnel at his disposal. What he does have complete control over is how he uses the personnel he does have.
One of the criticisms often leveled at Manuel is that he relies to heavily on his regulars. In 2011, though, he did not have many other options. His top two infield options were light-hitting utility men. He had success mixing in John Mayberry Jr., but Ross Gload was hampered by a hip injury all season.
Manuel has to hope that the front office recognizes that offensive depth can be as important as defensive depth. You saw it in the rotation that the Cardinals have been able to use. While the Phillies pooled their resources into one high-profile acquisition (Hunter Pence in right field), the Cardinals took a chance on Lance Berkman, then added complimentary pieces like Nick Punto, Rafael Furcal and Ryan Theriot. None of those three are marquee hitters. But they pack more of an offensive punch than Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez. The Cardinals had one of the worst defenses in the National League, and it almost cost them a place in the postseason. But now the Cardinals are in the World Series.
Manuel has shown a willingness to rotate his players when he has the personnel to do so. In 2007, he had 15 different players finish the season with at least 130 plate appearances. He rotated the offensive-minded Greg Dobbs with Wes Helms and the defensive-minded Abraham Nunez at third base. He rotated Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino in right field.
Do the Phillies need two utility infielders who are on the bench primarily because of their defense? Or can they sacrifice one of those two for a player who brings more offense? Do they need a bench player like Ross Gload who plays first base? Or would they be better off with a hitter who can play multiple positions, like Jamey Carroll or Jerry Hairston Jr. or any of a number of veterans who could be available?
Manuel can't control those decisions. But he can control his line-up.
Manuel is a far more learned manager than people give him credit for. But he does have some stubborn beliefs, particularly with regard to Utley, Rollins and Howard. He thinks the fast contact hitter should be his leadoff hitter. He thinks the big power hitter should be his No. 4 hitter. And he thinks the best all-around hitter should be his No. 3 hitter. It is hard to quibble with the last two beliefs. But because Utley has not shown the power that he used to have, he is no longer a prototypical No. 3 hitter.
Maybe he gets that power back. But Manuel acknowledged he needed to find a new role for the second baseman by sliding him to the No. 2 hole. And he might want to consider sliding him up another slot.
1. Chase Utley, 2B:As we said before, Utley probably has the best ability to change, given his ability to work a count and his baseball IQ. He has already shown signs of re-inventing himself. He had an excellent NLDS, and he stole bases with great efficiency this season. If he can get his on base percentage back to where it used to be by looking hit his way on base, he could be a very effective leadoff hitter. As we noted in our post earlier today, Utley seemed to be caught in the middle of an identity crisis last season. He was still driving the ball predominantly to right field, but those balls were not resulting in extra base hits nearly as often as they used to. In the spray chart below you can see a representation of what the numbers say. Each black square outlined in red represents an out, while each green square represents a hit. Note the number of fly outs to the warning track or wall. We'll dig deeper into Utley's situation in a subsequent blog post, comparing this spray chart and this year's numbers to those of years past. For now, though, we can at least say that the evidence we have reviewed thus far reveals a power hitter who is seeing a lot of flyouts that a few years ago likely would have gone for extra base hits. Note that the majority of the balls Utley hit to the outfield ended up in the deepest third of the field of play. The action in the middle of the field is relatively scarce. If Utley shakes the knee condition that has plagued him and regains the strength he had as recently as 2009, then the problem will solve itself. Absent that, Utely may have to transition into a hitter who does most of his damage hitting balls in front of or in between outfielders instead of over them.
2. Jimmy Rollins, SS:Obviously, this is contingent on Rollins returning. If he does return, he will do so with a nice-sized contract. Which means the Phillies should not feel obligated to hit him lead-off, even though that is how he envisions himself. If the players are as serious about winning as they say they are, a simple flip-flopping of the batting order should not anger them to the point where it affects their play. Thanks to Amaro's stated expectations, Manuel now has the "Look, my ass is on the line" card to play. I don't know if that is what Amaro was trying to do, but by spelling out his expectations for Manuel and Gross, he essentially gave them some captial when dealing with their players. Blame it on the boss, in other words. Hitting Rollins behind Utley makes sense. It puts a fast runner behind Utley, which will hopefully minimize double plays. It also allows Manuel to use Rollins as a bunter in late-and-close situations. As you can see by Rollins' spray chart, he actually did an OK job of working the middle of the field this year, although the majority of his balls still went to the pull side and there were still a lot of long fly outs. His power his still exclusively to right field. But he did not have nearly as many deep fly outs as Utley. Instead, he did a good job of knocking balls through the infield ore dropping them in front of the outfielders. People have been waiting for Rollins to produce Ichiro-like numbers for his entire career. But if he keeps the approach he had during the regular season and the playoffs, he can be a very solid offensive shorstop and top-of-the-order hitter. Manuel has always resisted calls to move Rollins out of the leadoff spot, partly because he knows Jimmy likes hitting there, and mostly because he really believes that a major league leadoff hitter needs to be a speedy runner. But when you look at the skill sets of Utley and Rollins, it really makes more sense to hit Rollins behind Utley. It also puts even more distance between Utley and Howard for late game situations when opposing managers will contemplate how to dispatch their lefty relievers.
3. Hunter Pence, RF:The numbers say Pence is not the most patient of hitters. But he was the Phillies best all-around hitter for the last two months of the season. In many ways, Amaro's acquisition of Pence provides a clear example of what he wants out of the rest of his line-up. Pence is a guy who has a line drive/ground ball swing. He hits the ball to all fields. He hits well with two strikes. And he gives the Phillies a right-handed bat in front of Howard. I've heard a lot of chatter that Pence should have been hitting behind Ryan Howard in the playoffs in order to provide "protection" for the big guy. I've never understood this line of thinking. First of all, the Phillies still had Shane Victorino hitting fifth. Victorino spent most of the season as the team's best hitter. Second, I notice no difference in the way pitchers pitch Howard when Pence is behind him and when anybody else is behind him. They didn't suddenly start throwing balls in the strike zone when Pence arrived. Howard just happened to start seeing them and hitting them better. Maybe it helps his confidence to have Pence behind him. But Pence was the Phillies' hottest hitter over the last two months of the season, and the goal is to get your hottest hitter as many plate appearances as possible, which means you hit him third. The Phillies like Pence's approach. One concern for a new player heading into Citizens Bank Park is that he could get pull happy given the cozy dimensions of the park, but Pence is coming from another small park, so that might not be a valid concern in this case.
4. Ryan Howard, 1B:You can argue that the Phillies should hit him fifth against lefties, but you have to understand Manuel wanting to keep him at No. 4. As you can see, Howard's home runs were pretty evenly dispersed to all fields, but that does not necessarily mean that he was doing a better job of using the opposite field. A lot of times, he was simply late on a fastball but had enough power to muscle it out of the yard. That's a lot different from purposefully trying to knock a fastball on the outer third into left-center for a base-hit. Frankly, I don't know how much changing Howard can do, or how wise it would be to try to make him change. As you can see from the start, he is still having a lot of success driving the ball to his power zone, which is right-center to right field. In a perfect world, you could get him to put more two-strike pitches into play, serving them to left field for base hits. But some of the pitches Howard stirkes out at are so far out of the zone that even Ted Williams couldn't do anything with them. For Howard, it still comes down to pitch recognition, which can't really be taught.
5. Shane Victorino, CF:Hitting Victorino fifth forces opposing manager to burn a lefty just to face Howard, since Victorino has always mashed from from the right side of the plate. He obviously is not a prototypical No. 5 hitter, but his skill set fits. His ability to drive the ball plays well here because of the runners he should see on base in front of him. And his speed plays because we are now getting down to the bottom of the order, and the ability to score from first on a double or second on a single becomes more important with the pitcher's spot drawing nearer. Below is Victorino's spray chart agianst right-handers. Really, it's a pretty picture. He appears to be doing a better job of using the middle of the field than he did in his early years. His power is still from right-center-to-right field, but the middle third of the outfield looks exactly as you'd want it out of a guy like Victorino. If he could ever eliminate the lapses in judgment and cut down on the foul pops, infield flies, and weak groundballs that he rolls over to the right side of the infield, he could take that last step into the realm of elite hitters.
6. Carlos Ruiz, C:The Phillies look at Ruiz as a defensive player. Manuel has always been hesitant to take him out of his comfort zone at No. 8. But Ruiz hit sixth in 29 starts this season and hit .315 with a .417 on base percentage and .454 slugging percentage in 127 plate appearances. I used to think that Ruiz's high walk rate had a lot to do with the pitcher hitting behind him. And it probably did. But while his walk rate in 2011 dropped from 12.75 percent at No. 8 (1,384 plate appearances) to 11.1 percent at No. 7 (537 PAs) to 9.1 at No. 6, a corresponding rise in batting average more than made up for it. He hit .247 at No. 8, .302 at No. 7 and .315 at No. 6. Those numbers make a lot of sense. While Ruiz doesn't walk as much at No. 6, he also sees better balls to hit because of the strength of the hitter behind him. He also has less pressure on him in two-out situations. Yes, Ruiz struggled during the NLDS. But he was also the last line of defense before the pitcher's spot in games where the Phillies often needed him to come up with a big hit. Moving Ruiz's base-reaching ability out of the eight hole would make sense if the Phillies can find a couple of hitters who can drive in runs at No. 7 and No. 8. The fact is, Ruiz has turned himself into a nice little hitter. And while Manuel's desire to avoid asking too much out of him is understandable given his importance in the pitching game, Ruiz is a hitter who has a lot of skills that the organization wants the rest of the lineup to adapt. He has a good eye, he uses the middle of the field, he plays smart. The problem is, when he reaches base, he has the pitcher hitting behind him. Hitting him sixth would put a higher OBP guy in the middle of the order, and it just might result in the emergence of some power as he sees more pitches to hit.
7. John Mayberry Jr. or Veteran TBA, LF:Manuel's philosophy might prompt him to hit the powerful Mayberry toward the middle of the order. But No. 7 makes sense for a variety of reasons. With two solid OBP hitters in front of him, Mayberry's power would have plenty of opportunity to play, both from the perspective of driving runs in and reaching scoring position for the bottom of the lineup. His speed and base-stealing come into play here too. Left field is the Phillies' most precarious position heading into the offseason. Yes, John Mayberry Jr. had a tremendous showing in part-time action this season. But as you can see from his spray chart, he is also an extreme pull hitter. Opposing pitchers are now aware of him, aware of his tendencies. Keep in mind that Manuel was also able to pick and choose playing time for Mayberry, matching him against the pitchers who provided the best opportunity for success. That's a lot different from playing every day. Can Mayberry do it? Sure, he has the potential. He showed an ability to adapt early in the summer when he changed his stance at the plate after being sent down to the minors. But keep in mind that the Phillies entered 2011 thinking that Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown would give them enough offense in right field. This year, they'll be hard-pressed to swing a trade for a left fielder like Pence if Mayberry does not pan out. There are enough veteran left fielders on the market that the Phillies should be able to attract a high OBP guy with some pop and offer him enough playing time, particularly since Ryan Howard could start the year on the DL, enabling Manuel to use Mayberry at first base. We'll look at some of those options at a later date.
8. Veteran TBA or Placido Polanco 3B:Polanco is expected to be healthy by spring training. At $6.25 million, he is guaranteed to be here next season. But it would make sense to bring in a player with some power who can rotate with Polanco. In an ideal world, this would keep Polanco fresh for the entire season, and it would also give the Phillies some badly-needed power out of the position. Barring a trade or the signing of Aramis Ramirez, they will likely have to sacrifice defense whenever Polanco is not on the field. In the right situation, it would make sense.
Although a player like Edwin Encarnacion, who could become a free agent, is a below-average defender, he did hit .272/.334/.453 with 17 home runs last season. Same goes for Wilson Betemit. Casey Blake is a more veteran free agent. All three could fill in at first base if Howard is not ready. Lesser names who are scheduled to be free agents include Andy LaRoche and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Nobody will argue that third base is an important defensive position. The play of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez in place of Polanco helped the Phillies to their 102-win season. But the lack of offensive depth in the infield reared its head in the NLDS. In the latter stages of Game 5 with the Phillies need to score a run outweighing the need to prevent one, Manuel did not have a viable bat on the bench who could pinch-hit for the struggling Polanco. Same goes for down the stretch, when the Phillies could have worked such a player onto the field as they cruised toward the division title and homefield advantage. Three different utility men saw more than 100 plate appearances for the Phillies. Two of them, Martinez and Valdez, eclipsed 200 PAs and were on the postseason roster. Polanco was viewed as a No. 2 hitter when the Phillies signed him because of his ability to move runners. And while he had 33 hits with a man on first base this season, he also grounded into 15 double plays.
Bench
1 - Backup Catcher: This is not a glaring need, and the Phillies will probably stick to their philosophy of thinking defense first here.
2 - Utility Man:Valdez is eligible for arbitration, so it might not make sense to keep him around, especially with Martinez as an option and Freddy Galvis in the minors. Every dollar saved on the utility man is a dollar that can be invested in an offensive or bullpen slot.
3 - Mayberry or Veteran OF:Finding a veteran left fielder who can work the count and reach base should be the primary concern. Either Mayberry works in with the veteran, the veteran works in with Mayberry, or one of the two distinguish themselves in spring training or in the early-going.
4 - Veteran hitter who can play 3B:We listed some examples when evaluating Polanco's spot in the order, but a complete breakdown will come at some point in the future.
5 - Veteran hitter who can play 2B/SS:Keeping Utley healthy will be easier if Manuel has an offensive option he feels comfortable using. Ideally, this player or the other veteran infielder will be able for spot duty in the outfield or first base.
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The whole premise behind the new hitting approach is the assumption that the manager and the players go along with it.
Tell me that Charlie is going to be able to tell Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins ( if he is back) and Victorino that they are going to be expected to adapt to a new philosophy. I don't think either the manager or the players are going to do it !
They may say that they are, for public consumption, but I would be willing to bet that all three of these players will be the same ballplayers by next June or July as they were this year.
Then what is the answer.
Change the manager and let Jimmy Rollins walk.
That might get everybody's attention. Victorino and Howard are still diffence makers - Rollins is not.
Victorino, Utley, Howard, Pence, Mayberry and Ruiz is still a strong nucleus for any team to have.
The pitching staff is quality.
Add a few younger and faster pieces through free agency and this team will be fine.
Two players I would like to see come here, Reyes ( no more than six years) and Connor Jackson.— candidly
Comment removed.- I gave up on this article right after -get rollins to think groundball instead of flyball...you have to be kidding me right? Thats like asking my 1 year old not to play with his toys...ain't happening. (Although I have more confidence in my one year old vs Rollins)— JuanSamuel4prez
- Murph - sorry for picking on your grammar - you CONSISTENTLY provide THE best analysis for us clowns. I really appreciate it. If only (gotta love those two words!) the Phightins would listen to someone other than their agents, maybe they would alter things just enough to get us w's in those nailbiter games. Aahh, I'm dreaming - but then again, I'm a Phillies fan, whaddya expect? Keep up the good work, young man.— dwp66
- Nice work Murph, but not ready to look at the anemic Phils lineup.
Still angry about another blown opportunity and a team that can't hit
their weight in the postseason.— Fan74 - "I've heard a lot of chatter that Pence should have been hitting behind Ryan Howard in the playoffs in order to provide "protection" for the big guy. I've never understood this line of thinking."
This is why you should not be a baseball beat writer. Obviously the Phillies had that line of thinking when they traded for him. But by your thinking, they had their protection the whole time in Victorino. The bottom line is that the problem was, and has always been, that Charlie manages in the post-season totally unlike he did in the regular season, which is what got him there. The very first year, when they got trounced by Colorado, he started Wes Helms in every playoff game, when he didn't do that during consistently the regular season. This year he leaves a clearly ineffective Polanco in all game every game, brings in Worley and Lee in relief, bats Pence 3rd, which he only did for the last few games of the season... I think Charlie is afraid he's going to get out-managed, so he does unorthodox things that tend to backfire. I guarantee you he was nervous going up against LaRussa. Whitey Herzog preached, manage the playoffs like you managed the regular season. Charlie does just the opposite.— tsmagnum73 - Comment removed.
- "I've heard a lot of chatter that Pence should have been hitting behind Ryan Howard in the playoffs in order to provide "protection" for the big guy. I've never understood this line of thinking."
This is why
— tsmagnum73 - Murph, thanks for the analysis. I gotta say that I trust your opinions more than any of the other writers on here. I wanted to throw out a thought on a potential Blockbuster that could change the look of the Phils in the offseason...If the mets lose Jose Reyes in free agency that will really set them back to being contenders for awhile. With David Wrights contract coming due in 2013, I would imagine that it would be smart for management to look for offers. Given that the mets outfield is an area of need, do you think it would be smart for the phils to offer D Brown and some lower level prospects for Wright and then sign him to a long tern deal. The mets had interest in Brown during the trade deadline for Beltran, right? If they let Rollins walk that frees up some money and allows them to bring in a guy who has veteran leadership, more talent, and youth. Phils could look to bring in Galvis at short or sign a veteran to a one year deal. They could also look to add michael cuddyer as well. Take a look at this lineup:
1. Utley
2. Vic
3. Wright
4. Howard
5. Pence
6. Ruiz
7. Mayberry
8. Galvis or Veteran SS
Am i crazy here or is there some legitimacy in my thinking?— sjuhawk122 - Comment removed.
- Players sign with certain teams for money or the type of market they're in, or the schools they can send their kids to....other players sign because they are told in no uncertain terms..."if you sign with us you WILL BE our closer, our Leadoff hitter, our cleanup hitter"....etc. JRoll isn't gonna sign here for even 2-3 years if Charlie tells him to hit grounballs or bat 2nd....won't happen. Polly has zero leverage so he may have to be a utility guy or an 8 hole hitter. That's a huge slap in the face because he signed here as a 2 hole hitter. That's where he was told he'd hit. Hasn't worked out. If you bat Pence 4 and Howard 5, there'll be problems there too, even though that should be what's done for the good of the team on certain nights against certain pitchers. Players are spoiled and stat conscious. Without their normal stats they can't get the next big contract and they won't do what they must for the sake of the team. Life changes and we must change, but players don't like it and hold on to their past. Gotta let some players go, it's the only way to move forward.— Mark1npt
- This is a hilarious piece. Its all so obvious that Jimmy should hit grounders and Utley shouldnt be a dead pull hitter, but these guys are SELFISH. They are impossible to watch offensively because their approach stinks. They will never change. Thus, change the personnel.— gluteman
- First, Murph - did they teach you to proofread when you went through public education? Because it's spelled "Cosart," not "Coasart." (You did get it right the first time). Second, you insist that Charlie has "complete control over how he uses his lineup." Maybe you should insert how he TRIES to use his lineup. If we believe what Charlie said about "telling them for two years to change their approach" - they don't seem to hear him.— dwp66
Say what you want about Tony LaRussa, but he tries to maximize his teams's chances of winning every game with his moves. Personally I hate to keep score during a Cards game because I never have enough room on the sheet for all the pitchers he uses.— lgroniko- The Phillies can add a few lesser free agents as backups or maybe bring in some talent from the minors. They do need to get younger and to get some more power in the lineup. Either Polanco or Rollins must go.— MUADDIB
- Another great job by Murph. I especially liked the use of spray, but most of these overpriced knotheads will stick with their tendancies, and continue to "roll-on," Best solution for '12 = dump the King of Pop— NewMick314
- Please send this to Gross and Manual.— John621
- Dead-on about the need for more depth on the bench. Charlie had no choice but to run Polly out in the final games... WV and mini-mart would not have been logical solutions. Pick up Jerry Hairston, Jr.back in July as a bench player, and that's another story...— BullZinski
- If this team is serious about a new approach at the plate, the first step is to NOT resign Willie Mays Hayes, who is proud of the fact that he will never change his hitting approach and is delusional that he should be hitting leadoff.
Murph, didn't you say in the early part of the article they need to get Vic to stop thinking of himself as a power hitter, and then put him 5th in your order??? You want a guy with power hitting 5th.
I can see Utley hitting leadoff with his speed and plate discipline. My lineup: 1) Utley 2) Vic 3) Pence 4) Howard 5) Mayberry 6) Polanco 7) Chooch 8) Galvis
Of course, I'd like to see an upgrade at 3rd, but Polanco is going to make $6.25 mil and the 3rd base market isn't looking so hot.— Only in Philly... - Why aren't there 200 black dots behind the catcher for Howard's whiffs?— Bama
- A.. the players are just too dense to hit the way the manager has been saying out loud for years... exhibit 1 --> no team swings are more 3-0, 3-1 pitches than the Phillies.. that isn't the manager.. that is the selfish player trying to be a hero.... take a stinking walk and let next guy do the job
B. let J-Roll walk... tell the rest of the team that it's time to start with a new Philosophy.. and that begings with a real leadoff hit... bring up the kid from AAA to start at short.. let him get started on his career.. move Shane up to leadoff and keep it moving... bye J-Roll.. thanks...— clinoril - Wow, I couldn't disagree much more. Victorino is obviously the best lead-off hitter, with speed and best average.
If an when Polanco plays, he is still the best #2 hitter on the team. No one hits behind a runner better. Wasn't everyone in agreement about that before he got hurt?
Batting Mayberry 7th makes little sense. The team needs more power and at this point he is the person to do that. He should bat 3rd or 5th and certainly no lower than 6th.
1-Shane
2-Polanco or Utley
3-Pence
4-Howard
5-Mayberry
6-Utley or Rollins
7-Rollins
8-Ruiz— VicM - That's alot of analysis there. Here's a very simple observation: Not one of the regular hitters in the lineup has choked up on their bat.— rbecker1963
- Good call on Utley at lead off. That seems like a no-brainer to me the last few years. The best way for a starter to settle into a game is with a one pitch out, which is how Rollins likes to start things off. Make the guy work a little bit. Utley can do that, he is the best base runner and he should be the guy that sets the tone. I always thought he was way over rated, but if you tell him to get on, he'll figure out how to get on and put pressure constant pressure on the opposition in the process.— jtj06
- When I get a few weeks off, I will study those spray charts. First glance, they all look the same? Wait, no, Howard has more hits over the wall! Duh. Victorino has no power to left. Eureka! This changes everything?!— eman
- I've been saying bat Utley first for a long time. He's not a base stealer but no one is on this team anymore so that's not an issue. He has one of the best OBP and makes contact.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- I'm no hitting expert but someone please tell Howard to get closer to the plate so he can make contact easier. At one time this year he did just that, and what do you know he was hitting for a good avg. but then he preceded to recede way back into the box and watch the called third strikes. Is it that nobody wants to tell him what he's doing wrong? If so we need a new hitting coach.— bossrjc
- Comment removed.
- Column looked nice with all the charts but the chances of veteran big league ballplayers changing their approach at this stage of the game is zilch to none. Big leaguers think they know best and don't really want to be told what to do, especially by management who makes less $$ than they do. There is no incentive for them to change because there are only carats (in their ears) and no sticks.— Sam Crow
- Sorry, Jimmy Rollins could never hit second in a batting order. He has ZERO concept how to hit behind the runner. The team functioned best with Victorino first, Polanco second (because he understands how to hit behind a runner), Utley third, Howard fourth and Pence fifth. Polanco was hurt through September and shouldn't have been playing if the Phillies had a decent back-up (obviously they didn't). Jimmy Rollins shouldn't hit higher than seventh, but the Phillies management don't have guts to tell him where to hit. Rollins hits come in bunches. There are too many 0-fers, with Rollins leading off. As one of the intelligent posters has already noted he tries to hit too many home runs. While that looks good on his stats, he doesn't do it enough that it doesn't help the team win (too many fly ball outs). Murphy needs to start over. I'd let Rollins go unless you can sign him for three years at an average of $9 million per year. He is too injury prone, and his numbers can only be worse in the coming seasons now that he is not playing for a contract.— RunningTheBases
- Another very good piece of writing and analysis, David. It certainly has made the sports page much more interesting with these 3 pieces. I must say, though, rearranging the batting order seems a bit too easy, given what we see over 162 games, so I guess you'll have more interesting stuff for us to mull over. I figure a good OBP guy is 100 pts. above his batting average. I think Ruiz may be the only one who did that last season (except also maybe Francisco, who hit about .230, so even that stat has its shortcomings). Utley obviously is a big unknown, and so there's lots to contemplate with moving him, and hoping he recovers his leg strength. I saw his spraying the ball as weakness, not necessarily something he did with intent. The others I'm not so sure about, and I'm starting to think Rollins won't be back. Jim Leyland likes to say, " a .250 hitter will hit .250." I think he means what you see is what you get, and I'd be shocked if these guys showed up in Clearwater with a different mindset, approach, whatever you call it. I'm still thinking we need to add the complementary, non-marquee guys, and that groupthink attitude adjustment alone is not the answer.— ijj
- Generally I'm very negative about your column.In this case I must congratulate you on an excellent column. It's entirely different from anything I've seen from other columnists. Well worth reading !— phineas
- I have a great appreciation for David Murphy and how he writes. This is a prime example of a writer working and thinking. We can take what we want from it but at least he works hard at providing information to the fans.— hawk18
- This is an excerpt of an article in April during the Phillies early struggles. Tell me where Charlie is preaching patience, plate discipline. Instead he's preaching like what he always preach, the longball.
The hits will come, especially those of the extra base variety, according to hitting guru Charlie Manuel. The Phillies manager isn’t concerned that his team has had difficulty scoring runs for much of April.
“We’re going to hit better,” said Manuel, whose team is hitting just .256 on the campaign with a slugging percentage of .380, the latter 20th in baseball . “I know that. We’re going to get extra base hits and home runs. It’ll be warm at (Citizens Bank Park) in May and the ball will be jumping off the bat.”
Read more: http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/90046835?Follow%20the%20Manuel%3A%20manager%20believes%20Phillies%20offense%20will%20awake%20soon#ixzz1bAY21vxw
— EL Zorro - Good catch on the duplicate spray chart. Rollins spray chart is now correct.— dmurph003
- Comment removed.
- Trying to get water from a rock would be an easier task than to make these player hit by just moving them in the batting order. David Murphy is talking like he has just uncovered the cure for cancer getting so analytical to include these hitting charts. The charts are easy to interpret, just show that the Phils can't hit no matter what order in the line-up they are batting.— jeff007
- Pence has been a perfect fit in Phillies clubhouse ... ... Its funny how the "High Cheese" guy, Murphy, killed ... a Victorino/Rollins type, both are high profile guys ... Compare Pence's contributions to Beltran's. ...
- Article - Inquirer - 235k - 2011-09-30
Nice try David. Apparently, even your own colleagues were surprised at your low rating of Pence in your article. BTW, thanks for the educational speech.— younged - OOPS! Rollins' and Victorino's spray charts are identical!— uday
- David, great analysis. But youare missing one obvious point: The Phils will NOT re-sign Rollins. If you want to change the look/attitude of the hitting on this team then start with letting JRoll go. Lots of good free-agent SS on the market that can help this team (Alex Gonzalez?) until Freddy Galvis is ready. Then sprinkle in some good bench players (Nick Punto?) and add a pesky OF with some pop (Nick Swisher, should NYY decline his last year). Mix that in with Chase, Shane, Hunter, Chooch, and Howard...and now, you have a pesky line up that can generate some offense.— Phront_Runner
- Absolutely on board with Chase Utley in the leadoff spot. No Rickey Henderson by any stretch of the imagination, but that's ok. His approach will resemble that of Pete Rose, who did some leading off in this town. Like Utley, Pete didn't have the best set of wheels on the team, but he was hellbent on making things happen on the basepaths. Utley is the team's most patient hitter and knows the importance of grinding out some tough at bats. Chase may really buy into this role if this becomes a reality. As far as third base depth, Aramis Ramirez would be the top choice out there, but he would probably have to sacrifice significant years and money to sign with The Phils. Two guys under the radar who might be able to help are Eric Chavez and Greg Dobbs. Chavez, who is 33, won multiple gold gloves with Oakland in the past decade. He was swinging a pretty good bat for The Yankees last season until running into some injuries. Dobbs was a good contributor on The Phils 2007 and 2008 ballclubs. He looks like he has regained his good hitting stroke as a member of The Marlins this past season.— Seeing Red
- You can't teach an old dog new tricks. Jimmy Popup still thinks he's a 30+ HR hitter.— JamesJ
- D murph you always put up quality stuff. I can tell you are busting your tail to put in quality work instead of just throwing out opinion articles on a whim. Keep it up!
Like your thoughts re: Utley in leadoff with Pence at 3, Howard at 4, and Vic at 5. Really like your thoughts re: Ruiz at 6, although he did regress for a large part of this season. Not sure if teams started to figure out how to pitch him, or if that was a byproduct of being in the 8 hole (or both). I'm not sold on Rollins. I understand his numbers went up, but he is in a contract year, which to me suggests this was his absolute best and we should not expect the same production next season. I was pretty ticked off when I saw articles this offseason saying he finally was convinced to change his offseason conditioning program so he could avoid another injury plagued season (which he had for 2+ years). That screams complacency to me and I do not think it was an accident this coincided with his contract year. I also don't like the idea of giving him 5 years. 3 years, fine. But that increases the need to get some offensive pop on the bench because I think once he signs a contract he will go back to being JRoll of old.— phillypatrick3 - How about getting some players in here that can actually hit the ball, what a novel approach. This team will not win again with Utley and Polanco cloggin up the line-up with outs. If Amaro can add two more .300 hitters into this lineup along with Pence then they have a chance of winning in the postseason, and use Utley and Polanco off the bench.— jeff007
- The bench you outline seems to have 3 infielders and really only 1 outfielder. That outfielder could be Mayberry who would also be the backup 1B (although they could play Utley at 1B and a backup at 2B). Anyway, it seems too heavily swung to infield unless you like the look of Michael Martinez in the OF - I did not. Otherwise good analysis but I think we all know Manuel will hit Rollins leadoff and Chooch 8th.— Phils Phan 28
- @Hemingway, let's give you that point and agree that Charlie does preach these things. But if I stand corrected on that, then when can we expect to see Charlie actually put some muscle behind his preaching? Shouldn't it follow that he would move Rollins down in the order by now and stuck with the hot hand they had going with Shane leading off the first half of September? Shouldn't we have the right to expect that if his preaching was continually ignored, that he would have started more than just the 9 guys he did in the playoffs (the regular 8 + Mayberry in one game). LaRussa played 13 different guys in the field and at the plate; Texas has started 12 different guys. Charlie? He changes almost nothing!
He really should back up his preaching with some changes to get their attention on occasion, don't you think?— advantasux - Sign Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Get rid off Martinez, Valdez, Gload. Don't sign Rollins. Bring in a veteran shortstop. Polanco goes to the bench.— zeke128
- What press conferences? All I heard Charlie say is "we have a bunch of guys capable of hitting more home runs.'' They have the ability. If he preaches what you guys are saying (which I doubt) and the message is not reaching his player, then he's a failure. Period.— EL Zorro
- advantasux
Actually, if you listen to Manuel's press conferences over the years, he has always preached this stuff. You people don't want to give him credit for anything. What people don't want to accept is that the Phillies have just gotten older and none of them have the same power they used to. You can't expect a bunch guys in their 30s, who have spent the better part of the decade swinging for the fences, to all the sudden become patient contact hitters. They need to find some way to sign some bats that can help fill the void that a guy like Utley once filled. I hope I'm wrong, but don't be surprised if he starts the season on the disabled list and only plays in a hundred games or so. Once guys start getting injured, they don't start getting uninjured once they get older. You can just see when he plays now the toll those injuries have had on him. This new injury to Howard is also worrisome. He has had problems with his feet for a couple years now, and one thing about athletes, once they start having problems with their feet, the end is not far behind. But, I do hope I'm wrong, and they can get a few more productive years out of these guys.— Hemingway - andrewfrombrookly, Amaro had a career minor league OBP of .399 a BA of .304 and a OPS of .834. That didn't translate into good ML numbers, although he batted over .300 two times as a part time player with the Phillies. I said two summers ago, that Brown was at least 2 years away from being an impact player when I saw him at Reading. Too many flaws in his swing. Some detractors on this site laughed at me, mentioning Baseball America and the scouts, etc. How do you like me now? Somehow the Phillies screwed that up and pushed back his development maybe another year and who knows. Now he can't play defense and is a complete mess. Even Wade didn’t want him in the Pence deal. And I put some of the blame on Charlie who wanted the kid with the big club against Amaro’s wishes, for guess what?, his HR potential and after the kid kept struggling he stubbornly taught he could straight the him out. What a dope!— EL Zorro
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- Dave, my hat is off to yor for taking on your critics. Some might think that it is easier to teach the blind to see, the deaf to hear and the lame to hecome sprinters than it is to joust with some of the critics on this board. The editors might not approve but this reader does. Yours was a good piece, you're having a good run. Put the mental midgets in their place.— Claudio Vernight
- Ah,the word "bunt" seems like a lifetime since the Phils had someone at the top of the order(not just leadoff) who was a threat to try for a bunt hit early in the game with no one on base.— Mon
- Murph, thank you for the reply, I'm honored to have received one from you. I won't disagree with a single point you made within your reply about so many of the hitters in our line-up simply being the same year after year after year, regardless of anything Charlie says or whom serves as the largely ignored hitting coach. But doesn't that premise invalidate your larger column, and Amaro's hopes, that these changes which you painstakingly detailed for us and for them, are simply immaterial in the scheme of things? I fear for you that this is the case.
I was making a different point in my first comment...Charlie does not go to the effort we'd all like to believe he does. I'd kill to see the guy stand up to Rollins and bat him lower, and cause Hoard to finally move a bit closer to the plate, and work with Pence to swing at strikes, etc. Charlie must either do very little of this or he has no guts to shake things up when they pay him no mind.— advantasux - expecting to be healthy at 36 when you haven't been healthy at 34 and 35 is asking a bit much...sure healthy in february but will he be healthy when it counts...i doubt you can count on that--so polly becomes a utility man and they sign someone who can actually get through a season and produce. next up...left field. check back tomorrow folks.— Shemp Howard
- I like it. I think you need to let Jimmy leave and have someone hold down the position for a year or two until Galvis is ready (Barmes/Scutaro anyone??). Either one batting 2nd in that line-up instantly becomes a better hitter.— Wheelermustgo
- advantasux - obviously, we'll never know what, exactly, Manuel preaches to his players. But Amaro said the same things about approach last offseason, and the majority of the hitters were the same in a full season under Greg Gross as they were in five-and-a-half years under Milt Thompson. We're going to get more into the details over the next week, but players are players. Pat Burrell was the same guy before he came here and after he left. Aaron Rowand was the same guy before he arrived and after he left. Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco are essentially the same hitters they were before they came to Philly. Victorino has improved as a hitter under Manuel. Ruiz has improved as a hitter under Manuel. Jayson Werth was a patient as they come and hit the ball to all fields and he came into his own under Manuel. I think sometimes we ignore those things because of the narrative that has developed with regard to Charlie.— dmurph003
- The Phils should hire YOU. That was the best analysis ever. Why can't the PHils top brass figure this stuff out?— Larry Byrd
- Thanks, Dave. Of all the options available to the Phillies--and, given their high payroll and lack of depth in the high minors, they don't have many--keeping the existing players and retooling the batting order makes the most sense. They should have enough payroll flexibility to add a platoon left fielder and a platoon third baseman. And, speaking of left field, Domonic Brown has a career OBP in the minors of .375, and the number has largely increased the higher he has gone in the minors. History has shown that the ability to get on base is the one thing that holds steady from the minors to the majors (and as players age); it would be foolish to give up on Dom so soon, particularly because he's inexpensive, and will be for some time.— andrewfrombrooklyn
- Murph, my thanks to you for going to lengths never before seen in these columns to present such a coherent analysis for your readers. dude, you are one of a kind.
That said, I must object to one sentence in your column...I don't for a minute believe a word of this: "Manuel can preach until his mouth runs dry, but it is still up to the players to accept his philosophy, recognize the pitches that they can hit to reach base, and make good contact with those pitches."
Does anyone really believe Charlie "preaches these things until his mouth runs dry"? If he does, and they pay him no mind, and he never shakes things up or sits guys down who care not to do what's best for the team, then shame on him, he's more worthless than already believed.
Instead, I believe that he DOESN'T preach these things, and that is why he cannot hold anyone to account. His guys love to play for him and he loves that. Meanwhile, he snaps his bubblegum and enjoys the view.
Can't have it both ways, Charlie!
— advantasux - With this team, depth is pointless. They could have a team of all-stars sitting on the bench ready to come in, but assuming the Phils make the post season again, ol' Charlie will forget all that and play the same 8 guys. They could get no-hit for 2 straight games and he won't change the lineup.
- hey younged, I want you to know that I don't hold you personally accountable for your inability to read and comprehend basic english. the financing of public education in this country is a travesty, and i can only assume that it has played a big role in your struggles. once again, this is word-for-word what I wrote about Pence, "Long story short, Hunter Pence is a good ballplayer. But I'm not sure that you can categorize him as an impact bat. The problem is, in order to land his services, a team like the Phillies will probably have to pay an impact-bat pricetag. Which brings us back to the question: What is Hunter Pence worth? A trio of potential impact players in Domonic Brown and Jonathan Singleton and Jared Cosart? One man's opinion: Singleton and Cosart, sure. But Domonic Brown? Really?"
Since you seem to have a difficult time with reading comprehension, try to get a buddy to read that to you and explain what it means. Because the Phillies ended up trading Coasart and Singleton for Pence, which according to the blog post you keep referring to indicates that I think it was a fair price. Like I said, don't take this the wrong way. Your obstinacy is not entirely your fault. Our public education system is failing millions of kids across the country.— dmurph003 - Comment removed.
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- Really? You are going to say younged is an idiot because of public education? — Matty O
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- Here is my suggestion, no more wasting a roster spot for another Rule 5 player. Last year it was Hearndon, this year Martinez. With a veteran ballclub we need all the depth we can spare for when injuries happen.— Blue and White
- Hey murph, you forgot to include the "Pence Stinks" Chart that you drew up before he was traded to the Phillies. You still have that one?— younged
- Dom Brown, Vance Worley, Trevor May and cash to Dodgers for M. Kemp. The cash will cover Frank's divorce legal fees.— Romus
- Throw in Cole and they may start to think about it. — Badhog
- Your village wants you back!! — JBinPA
- The Cardinals deserved to beat the Phillies, but to make an argument for the makeup of that team is silly. They only made the playoffs because the Braves stunk up the last month of the season, and you can't win anything if you don't make the playoffs. Much like the Giants did last year when the Padres had a significant fall. The Phillies were supposed to be built for the playoffs, but turns out the hot team clipped their wings again. It shows the mercurial nature of baseball, and it's one of the reasons it's the best game on earth.— dblankj
- David you said charley is not all that bad as a manager. but i think you forget what he continually does wrong. The old phils are the only team in baseball whose starting pitchers MUST MUST pitch thru the 5th. Oy yea the relivers ( with some exceptions) can only pitch 1 inning but god forbid if they had to do it on consective day. our guys need a day of rest. The cards believe that too. charlies ok but yea his team didn't hit and who knew how to get the runner to the next base oter than oswald? they didn't hit in spring training and it finnially bit them in OCT— tnjoe
- I half-disagree, Colombia. True maybe in Howard's case, but not in Rollins'. Though his skills have not ever become representative of a true leadoff hitter, he clearly takes more pitches at this stage of his career than at the beginning, and his BB/K ratio the past several seasons have been impressive. Rollins hasn't struck out 100+ times since 2003, not more than 75+ times since '07.— RickSchuBlues
- It's true Rollins has made a little progress over the years, but he still tries too often to hit home runs and winds up flying out. Instead, he should try to hit the ball on the ground and use his speed to get on base. — ton609
- David, that's a pretty good analysis. But you left out one statistic for Rollins and Howard which shows remarkable consistency: A cranial density near 100%. Neither player seems to have learned anything since they reached the majors.— Colombia
- Columbia, you said a mouthful. Their baseball IQ's are about as low as they come. What good leadoff hitter swings at the first pitch (?), except Rollins. One of the jobs of a leadoff man is to let the rest of the lineup get some idea of what the pitcher is throwing. For that matter, I burn when I see Rollins swing at the first pitch after both hitters ahead of him walked or got plunked. And when will Howard learn that everyone's out pitch to him is a slider or curve low and away? — lgroniko
- Who would you consider a good leadoff hitter that doesn't swing at the first pitch? — Bobby Yost
