Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: Rotation/Bullpen
Make sure to buy the paper Wednesday. Check that. Make sure to buy the paper every day, but buy three copies on Wednesday: One to read, one to keep for posterity, and one to give to a friend who looks like he might need a little baseball knowledge dropped on them.
Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: Rotation/Bullpen
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Make sure to buy the paper Wednesday. Check that. Make sure to buy the paper every day, but buy three copies on Wednesday: One to read, one to keep for posterity, and one to give to a friend who looks like he might need a little baseball knowledge dropped on them.
That's right -- the annual Daily News Spring Training Preview is coming out Wednesday. The theme of my main piece is change, and right now I am trying to decide what song lyric to work in. Feel free to give some suggestions, but here are three I'm considering:
"They'll all look at me and say/Hey look at him! I'll never live that way/But that's OK/They're just afraid to change."
--Change by Blind Melon
"Time may change me/But I can't trace time."
--Changes by David Bowie
"You gotta operate the easy way/I made a G Today/But you made it in a sleazy way"
--Changes by Tupac
I'm leaning toward Blind Melon -- One, because I don't want to get a bunch of emails from people who swear I misprinted David Bowie's lyrics. Two, because I don't think the Tupac lyrics are very relevant. Three, because I like the song.
Anyway, in the spirit of 21st-century information-distribution, I figured I'd give you guys a peek at some of what I'll be writing about well before you actually have to pay for it.
I'm going to take the 25-man roster on the day the Phillies clinched the NL East last season, and stack it up against the 25-man roster we're projecting will start the month of May (to account for injuries). That way, we can evaluate the changes the Phillies have made, man-for man.
I'll hit the rotation and bullpen today, and the line-up, bench and field tomorrow.
I. Rotation
Roy Halladay for Cliff Lee at No. 1 starter
Up is up, and the Phillies are obviously up here. Lee was spectacular when he first arrived from Cleveland and was dominant in the postseason, but he allowed at least five runs in four of his last seven starts of the regular season. Halladay has a longer track record of consistency, has not walked more than 1.9 batters per nine innings in any of the last four seasons, and posted a better ERA in a tougher division last season. It might not be a huge upgrade, but it is an upgrade.
VERDICT: UP, marginally
Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick for Pedro Martinez at No. 5 starter
Although Kendrick pitched well at Triple-A and in a short stint in the majors, it is still unknown whether he has developed his change-up and slider enough to be effective as a regular starter. Moyer, meanwhile, is coming off both a disappointing season and a hellish offseason in which he underwent two surgeries and was hospitalized twice for complications. Martinez struggled in the World Series, but stabilized the fifth spot in the rotation after his midseason signing.
VERDICT: DOWN, until we know more
Cole Hamels for Cole Hamels at No. 2
I haven't talked to Hamels at all this season, but if I were him, I'd be pretty tired of hearing how bad I was last season. Consider: In his last 29 starts -- after an ugly seven-run outing against the Rockies in which his fastball was in the mid-80's, another against the Padres, and an injury-shortened performance against the Brewers -- Hamels posted a 3.94 ERA, allowed 0.95 home runs per nine innings, and struck out 7.84 batters per nine. Certainly not the Hamels we saw in 2008, but not nearly the basketcase teetering on the brink of collapse that some have portrayed.
Hamels struggled mightily in the playoffs, particularly against left-handed hitters, and there has been plenty of speculation about the importance of him developing a cutter this spring. I'm sure Hamels will experiment with a cutter, but his curveball is not a bad pitch -- he just seemed like he didn't have a ton of confidence in it last season. When Hamels' fastball is crisp and his change-up is acting the way he wants, his curveball is effective enough. I really think the inconsistency he showed last year was more a result of feeling less-than-100 percent physically after a grueling 2008, and what you saw in the postseason was a giant snowball that had accumulated girth and speed throughout the season.
VERDICT: HUNG JURY
II. Bullpen
Jose Contreras for Chan Ho Park at right-handed/multiple inning/7th-8th inning reliever.
Contreras is very much a wild card, but so was Park two years ago when the Dodgers converted him from a starter to a reliever. The big righty pitched well for the Rockies down the stretch in a relief role, and he'll provide some depth in the rotation. Still, Park was outstanding last season, and on paper this switch is a drop-off.
VERDICT: DOWN
Danys Baez for Chad Durbin at right-handed/multiple innings/7th-8th inning reliever.
Durbin is back, but his role will likely change now that Contreras and Baez are in the fold. Baez has closing experience, and he put up solid numbers last year for the Orioles in his first season back from elbow surgery. His fastball averaged 93.3 MPH last season, according to FanGraphs.com, about three miles faster than Durbin's. He also pitched well in a set-up role late in the season, and posted an excellent groundball rate.
The addition of Baez and Contreras gives the Phillies more right-handed, late-game options than they had last season, which could help keep Madson and Lidge fresh while allowing Durbin to occupy more of the role he did in 2008, when J.C. Romero provided and a healthy and effective option late in games.
VERDICT: UP
Chad Durbin for Clay Condrey at right-handed/multiple innings reliever
Condrey had a solid season last year, but was hampered by injuries late in the year and was ultimately non-tendered.
Durbin, a former starter, has been more effective in clean inning and multiple inning situations where he can afford to put men on base and work out of his own trouble.
Consider: In 18 relief appearances that lasted more than three outs last season, Durbin allowed just nine runs in 36.1 innings (1.98 ERA), allowing 1.14 walks and hits per inning.
VERDICT: UP
Antonio Bastardo for Scott Eyre at left-handed reliever
Eyre was a true lefty specialist and thrived in that role for much of the last year and a half. But with his retirement, the Phillies don't have a player to fill that role. Bastardo is the likeliest choice, although he relies heavily on his fastball, while Eyre's slider was a deadly weapon against left-handed hitters. Bastardo has plenty of upside, but he is still very much unproven.
VERDICT: DOWN
Kyle Kendrick/Jamie Moyer/Sergio Escalona for Jamie Moyer at Wild Card
Moyer performed well in long relief after losing his spot in the rotation, but his appearances were very much like starts. That said, Moyer has more major league relief experience than either Kendrick or Escalona.
VERDICT: EVEN
J.C. Romero for Brett Myers at injured reliever
A healthy return by Romero would provide a tremendous boost to the bullpen. But he is in danger of missing up to a month, and perhaps more, depending on how his surgically-repaired elbow responds in spring training.
VERDICT: HUNG JURY.
i STILL think mike koplove should be given a chance.— kiwi- Well done as always, Murph. When my Central Pennsylvania brother in law asked me the key to the season, I said, "Bastardo." That confused him. So many of the GMs of all teams said the same thing in the off season: "we just try to get alot of bullpen help and see what happens." I can't count on Romero. I love Bastardo's fastball for relief. It's really overpowering. Remember the game he started? If he can set a healthy LIdge up with Madson, we're okay. Oh wait, I just said "if" and "healthy" and "Lidge" I owe myself a beer.— harris09
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- Hey gang. Just was wondering. I think the perfect 5th starter for the Phils in 2010 would be Livan Hernandez. Did anyone pick him up yet? He gives you 150-175 innings, he will win you 10-12 games, and he probably comes cheap. Doesn't Livan make the rotation better? If he is available, why not offer him a non-roster tender invite to spring training? Just was wondering...— johnnyF
- Don't you think Eyre will be back around the All Star break?— Ed3
- who cares about the grammatical errors. Give it up— BBAX
- Re: Spelling mistakes -- I'm just giving you guys a lesson on some of the pratfalls of the 21st century newspaper distrubtion model. You get to read things here before you read them in the paper, and you get to read them for free, but you have to read them without a copy-editor having looked at them.
- The one thing that no one is taking into consideration with regards to the pitching staff.... there is depth and there will be a short leash for the 5th starter and bullpen for those guys who dont produce. Lidge will not have the luxury of keeping his job with a 7.23 ERA this year. I think we'll score a ton of runs this year provided we stay healthy. Look at how many bad things we overcame last year in the regular season and still won.— bradco
- Why would you compare Contreras and Park? Obviously they both could start if needed but Park ranked ahead of Durbin in last year's pen and Baez will rank above Contreras in this year's pen. You might as well compare the entire group of Baez, Contreras and Durbin against Park, Durbin and Condrey. Remember though, Park spent time in the rotation and Durbin and Condrey missed significant time last season so we only got partial season contributions from that group. Also, Bastardo replacing Eyre is misleading. Romero missed most of last season. He's the #1 lefty option out of the pen, assuming he's healthy. Eyre pitched a limited amount of innings last year and did well but I'll take a healthy Romero over Eyre. You can't really compare the bullpen like the rotation because guys pitch in multiple roles out of the pen. As a whole, the pen will be better than last year if Romero comes back healthy and Lidge makes any kind of improvement over last season. By the way, wondering when people will stop whining that we traded FOR probably the best pitcher in baseball and signed him to a 3 year extension on top of it. The Phillies weren't going to trade for Halladay, lose Lee after this season AND further deplete the farm system. Yes, we all would have loved to see both of those guys in the rotation for one season but, last time I checked, MLB isn't calling it quits after this season. Management can't just apply moronic, short-sighted, Monday morning QB, fan logic to their personnel moves. If that were the case, basically every player on every team would be cut because they had a bad game once. The Lee trade will be judged on whether we win a World Series. If we win a WS without Lee, then Amaro is a genius and a lot of you will owe him a huge apology. If they don't win a WS, then he'll face a lot of what-ifs. Give it a rest until the end of the season and then we'll see whether the gamble paid off.— JimG
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- I thought Hamels' curve was very effective in 2008, and basically MIA in 2009. This is his third pitch. It doesn't have to be a Jim Palmer type blow-them-away curve, just something he can show batters that doesn't have upper deck written all over it.— Chadds Ford
- Murph, go with "Time for a Change" by the Pampers— mick314
- No matter what pitch Hamels develops he has consistantly shown an inability to get through the 4th,5th, &6th innings without damage that causes them to go to the pen. This is not a sign of a great pitcher. We have had a multitude of excuses but honestly this year he has to prove he can go 7 and turn the game over to the pen wiith a lead or at least tied. Great pitchers save their best for the last 3 innings and in some cases actually get stronger during those innings. The slider that was Steve Carltons signature pitch would do Hamels a lot of good if there was someone in the organization who could teach him. Based on the lack of fundimentals at the pro level today I doubt it. When Steve threw his slider even Hall of Famer Joe Morgan had touble staying in the box. That was a true slider, anyone who has ever seen one knows what I'm talking about. If Hamels were to go to another organization he would be the player everybody wants him to be but here in Philly we just can't seem to get the best out of pitchers who should be in the highest rankings. Thinking 14-12 is a good year is a joke, lets try 16-7 like Moyer did in 08. If this team can't win 20+ for Halladay this season there is more problems than just the pitching staff. In 08 because of various injuries key player had to take a seat and the bench filled in beautifully. Last year those same key players stayed on the field come H--- or high water and by seasons end we paid for it. The Manager needs to break the mold and rethink the role of starters in his lineup. Having said that I don't hold my breath because the past is the future and we will be lucky to make it into the 2nd round of the playoffs.— Wally 24
