Breaking down the Lee deal
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Breaking down the Lee deal
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I've had a chance to sit down and make some sense of the pending deal that will bring lefty Cliff Lee and right-handed bat Ben Francisco to the Phillies for prospects Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Jason Knapp.
Here is how I see it:
I. The Rotation
1) Right now, here is how the Phillies rotation sets up:
Fri - Blanton at Giants
Sat - Lee at Giants
Sun - Hamels at Giants
Tue - Happ vs. Rockies
Wed - Moyer/Martinez vs. Rockies
Thu - Lee vs. Rockies
After some further review, I've adjusted this rotation. I figure Lee would pitch Saturday on five days rest, preceded by Blanton. After that, a lot depends on what the Phillies do in the bullpen. A number of people seem to think that Happ would head back to the pen. But we'll see.
2) If the Phillies go with Moyer, they'll have four lefties in their rotation. If they go with Martinez, it will be a little more balanced. Lee has struggled against righties this season. They are hitting .303 against him. lefties, meanwhile, are hitting .216. Last year, when he won the AL Cy Young, Lee held lefties to a .245 average. Then again, Lee pitches in the American League. In four interleague starts this season, he allowed eight runs in 29 innings, striking out 20, walking nine, and allowing 21 hits.
3) Forget about having four lefties in the rotation during the regular season. Let's look ahead to the postseason. Right now, a rotation would likely consist of Lee, Hamels, Blanton and Happ. That means three lefty starters. Last year, the Phillies had two lefties in their postseason rotation. The last time a World Series champion had three lefties in its postseason rotation was in 1996, when the Yankees tossed Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Key and Kenny Rogers in addition to David Cone. So it has happened before.
II. Roster moves
1) The Phillies are adding two players to their major league roster while not subtracting anybody. That means somebody has to go. The likely candidates are John Mayberry off of the bench and Steven Register out of the bullpen. But once Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero and Clay Condrey return, it will make for some interesting roster maneuvering. A lot depends on what the Phillies do with the Martinez/Moyer situation. I can't even begin to accurately speculate what might occur.
III. Ben Francisco
1) He is a 27-year-old right-handed bat. After this season, he will have two-plus years of major league service time. In 2008, he hit .266 with 15 home runs in 447 at-bats. This season, he is hitting .250 with 10 home runs and 308 at-bats.
2) Francisco hits .269 off lefties in his career, .258 off of righties. He doesn't have much pinch-hitting experience.
3) Francisco played one season with Phillies second baseman Chase Utley at UCLA in 2000.
IV. The Future
1) A big part of this deal is the money the Phillies save over adding Roy Halladay. Lee is due to earn $9 million next season. Halladay is due to earn $15.75 million. But just how will that impact the Phillies. Let's look:
2) Inclduing Lee, the Phillies have $103.5 committed to 12 players for next season. This year, their Opening Day pay-roll was right around $132 million. I'm sure there is some room for expansion, given the impressive string of sell-outs at Citizens Bank Park this year. And a postseason run would only add to those coffers.
3) In addition to the 12 players signed to multi-year contracts, seven others are under club control. Carlos Ruiz, Clay Condrey, Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino are arbitration eligible. Victorino and Blanton are in line for big raises. They'll definitely tender an offer to Victorino. And if Blanton continues pitching the way he has, there is a good chance he'll be worthy of the $7 to $8 million he could earn next season. Pedro Feliz has a $5 million club option with no obvious replacement in the minor leagues. Again, if Feliz continues to produce the way he has, $5 million seems like a bargain. Francisco and J.A. Happ are both under club control.
4) If the Phillies keep all 19 of their players under club control, I estimate that the they will have about $127 million committed to them, with three vacancies in the bullpen, one at back-up catcher, and two on the bench. So there would appear to be some financial room to make some additions.
THIS JUST IN: BOBBY COX WAS SEEN HIGH UP IN THE SUPERSTRUCTURE AT TURNER FIELD THREATENING TO JUMP. IN ONE HAND HE HAS LOCAL NEWSPAPER TURNED TO THE SPORTS SECTION. DOWN BELOW CHIPPER IS WAITING TO CATCH HIM. SURE HOPE THERE ISN'T ANY THUNDER STORM IN THE AREA.— Wally 24- So they didnt touch the guys the Jays wanted. Hmmm.
Something tells me Charlie had something to do with Lee coming here and neither Drabek, Happ or Brown being traded.- I think the Phils brass realizes the bubble will burst on Happ...maybe it's already starting to. He'll be the odd man out. Hamels, Blanton and Lee will be the top 3 starters and Pedro or Jamie Moyer will be the 4th starter. I'm guessing Pedro.— booman55
- JA "Sandy Koufax" Happ 15 minutes are up....send him back to LV to work on secondary pitches. I TOLD YOU SO!— booman55
- Happ to the bullpen destroys his value. Of course, he's going to come down to earth continuing to start. Point is, he value peaked a week ago. Shoulda been dealt when the prize is the best pitcher in baseball. Truth be told, it won't happen I know, but we should still do the Halladay deal. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer/Martinez/Lopez. That's something to be excited about.— bm2626
- No way Chollie will allow Moyer to be downgraded to the pen. He's loyal to his players to a fault--witness Lidge earlier this season. I say Lopez is gone via waivers and Martinez is in the pen with the possibility of replacing Happ or Moyer should either break down.— Cheesedog
- All these opportunities to put a great roster together while losing some talent in the process and Brunlett is still on the team. Please get rid of him asap. I can't take it any more.— dpell
- Forgot to add to previous post. Martinez goes to the pen. The others have it exactly right. Moyer is not set up for it. Happ has been too reliable. Martinez could be electric for 2-3 innings. And keeps him ready for starts if Happ slips or someone gets injured. Leave with this: THERE IS STILL TIME TO DO THE HALLADAY DEAL! A guy can dream can't he?— bm2626
- accurately speculate? Dude.... try just "speculate."— Bake McBride
- I think it would be a mistake to send Happ back to the pen. He'll be coming back down to earth (already is) but I think he has the make-up to be a solid 4th or 5th starter, maybe even a 3rd on some teams. Martinez in the pen makes a lot more sense to me but I wonder what expectations they may have set with him. Either way, they have depth. I'd like to see one more 8th/9th inning guy. I think Lidge is questionable in terms of carrying us through the playoffs this year. I expect Mayberry to be sent back down and Bruntlett to be gone. The pitching moves are harder to predict. Lopez has done a good job but he seems to be the odd man out.— s
- How the hell do you guys take Moyer out of the rotation? Just what are you smokin'? He wouldn't help out of the 'pen, but, irrespective of that, the guy has never really pitched better in his career. Give me a break, please. Also, does anyone else see how expendable Happ just became (with the addition of Lee)if we can still pull the trigger on a Halladay deal? pk— PhillyTheKid
- At this point, I trade Happ to Pittsburgh for Ryan Doumit. The Pirates are freely dumping everyone, and Doumit is a switch-hitting catcher with power. My concern with him is certainly whether or not he can remain healthy, but adding him addresses the weakest link in the lineup, and you have Lee replacing Happ in the rotation, and eventually Martinez replacing Lopez.— silverfade80
- Don't forget that the Phils are STILL paying Thome ($3 mil.) and Eaton ($8.5 mil) this year. Thankfully, this will be the last year and the Phils will have $11.5 mil less on their salary just from these 2.— androoo
- Go get Roy! We still have all of the players discussed by both teams in the deal that didn't happen for Roy.— Higher Ground
