Back to the bullpen: Lyon a possibility?
We've got a ton to get to today, including a comprehensive breakdown of the Placido Polanco move, but first let's take a quick look at where the Phillies' three free agent signings leaves them in terms of available money and potential places to spend it. I. Payroll Committments for 2010
Back to the bullpen: Lyon a possibility?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We've got a ton to get to today, including a comprehensive breakdown of the Placido Polanco move, but first let's take a quick look at where the Phillies' three free agent signings leaves them in terms of available money and potential places to spend it.
I. Payroll Committments for 2010
As you'll see in the chart below, I have the Phillies projected to pay out $127.8 million to the 20 players who are locks to be on the team next season. This includes 15 players who are guaranteed money along with two arbitration eligible players and three players with less than three years experience. The salaries for the two arbitration eligible players (Victorino and Blanton) as well as the salaries for Carlos Ruiz, J.A. Happ and Ben Francisco are estimated (for a comprehensive look at how we arrived at some of these numbers, check out some of our previous posts).
RAJ has said that he does not expect to spend much more money on payroll this season than he did last season, when they opened up the year at $132 million and by the end of it doled out a hair over $137 million. So in our offseason projections we have been working with the number $140 million, mostly because it is a nice, even figure.
2010 Roster/Payroll
SS - Jimmy Rollins: $7.5 million
3B - Placido Polanco: $6.0 million
2B - Chase Utley: $15.0 million
1B - Ryan Howard: $19.0 million
RF - Jayson Werth: $7.0 million
LF - Raul Ibanez: $11.5 million
CF - Shane Victorino: $6.5 million* ($3.125 million)
C - Carlos Ruiz: $0.750 million* ($0.475 million)
TOTAL: 8 regulars, $73.25 million
No. 1 - Cliff Lee: $9.0 million
No. 2 - Cole Hamels $6.65 million
No. 3 - Joe Blanton $6.5 million* ($5.475 million)
No. 4 - J.A. Happ: $0.500 million* ($0.400 million)
No. 5 - Jamie Moyer: $8.0 million
TOTAL: 5 starters, $30.65 million
Bench 1 - Greg Dobbs: $1.35 million
Bench 2 - Ben Francisco: $0.55 million* ($0.4214 million)
Bench 3 - Juan Castro: 0.75 million
Bench 4 - Brian Schneider: $1.25 million
Bench 5 - OPEN
TOTAL: 4 reserves, $3.90 million
Reliever 1 - Brad Lidge: $11.5 million
Reliever 2 - Ryan Madson: $4.5 million
Reliever 3 - J.C. Romero: $4.0 million
Reliever 4 - OPEN
Reliever 5 - OPEN
Reliever 6 - OPEN
Reliever 7 - OPEN
TOTAL: 3 relievers, $20 million
GRAND TOTAL: 20 players, $127.8 million
VACANCIES: 4 relievers, 1 bench player, 1 starter
II. Relievers: Breaking down Brandon Lyon
This would leave the Phillies with roughly $12 million to spend on five open active roster spots, four of which will likely be devoted to relievers. RAJ re-iterated yesterday what he has said several times this offseason, that some of those roster spots might be filled by players already under the Phillies' control. Two obvious candidates are righthanders Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey, both of whom are arbitration-eligible. Condrey earned $650,000 last season, while Durbin made $1.65 million, and thanks to service time and performance both would likely be in line for decent raises. Both are versatile relievers who have been with the team for the past two seasons. But the Phillies could decide that they are better off making both free agents and spending the money elsewhere.
The Phillies also have several young relievers in their minor league system who could factor into the equation. Lefthander Antonio Bastardo was on the playoff roster for all three rounds last season, although he faced a grand total of two batters. Fellow lefty Sergio Escalona made several appearance in the big leagues and showed some promise. Lefty Mike Zagurski, who made a brief appearance in the majors in 2007, is fully recovered from elbow surgery and in 45 relief appearances for Double-A Reading last year went 3-4 with a 3.57 ERA with 63 strikeouts and 69 walks/hits allowed in 53 innings. And while the Phillies would like to take it slow with righthander Scott Mathieson, who has made a surprising recovery from two elbow surgeries, he was impressive in the Arizona Fall League and could make an appearance in the majors at some point in 2010.
The thinking here at High Cheese is that of the Phillies' four vacancies in the bullpen, at least one and likely two will be filled by low-cost players who are already under the team's control. It would make sense to give one of the two young lefties a shot at proving themselves in a situational role at the start of the season. The cost, about $400,000, would be minimal. And it would give Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee and the front office a chance to assess whether a guy like Bastardo or Escalona can fill the role, with the back-up plan of adding another arm at the trade deadline. Another one of those four vacancies will likely be filled by a low-cost long reliever, a role that Condrey has filled over the last two seasons, and could fill again. If the Phillies decide that Condrey's price tag is more than they are willing to pay, they could fill the void with a guy like Kyle Kendrick, who also figures to make a serious push for the No. 5 spot in the rotation in the spring.
So where does that leave us? Right now, it leaves us projecting that the Phillies have two definite vacancies to fill in the bullpen. They need a guy who can pitch multiple innings, and would love to add a guy who can pitch in the eighth or ninth innings if necessary. On paper, the Phillies already have three back-of-the-bullpen arms under contract for a total of $20 million. But J.C. Romero could be sidelined early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery. And Brad Lidge is coming off minor elbow surgery as well as a rocky 2009 campaign.
The multiple-innings role is one that Durbin has helped fill the last two seasons and could fill again. Chan Ho Park also remains a possibility, although RAJ declined to handicap his chances of re-signing the veteran righthander yesterday.
Which brings us to a name that we first raised a couple of weeks ago when breaking down the Phillies' offseason.
Over the past couple of weeks, we've gotten some strong indications that the Phillies are hoping to land Tigers righthander Brandon Lyon, a versatile reliever who saved 26 games for the Diamondbacks in 2008 but also has the ability to pitch multiple innings.
Lyon is an interesting guy in that he compliments a 92-93 MPH fastball with three other pitches, most notably (and regularly) a curve ball. He also throws a slider/cutter and, occasionally, a change-up.
Lyon would seem to be a guy who can step into the role filled by Park last year. He pitched more than one inning in 24 of his 65 appearances last season, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.095 WHIP while striking out 5.51 K/9 in those outings. But he has also pitched in the back end up of the bullpen, saving 14 games for Arizona in 2004 and 26 in 2008. In his outings that lasted one or fewer innings last season, he posted a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while striking out 7.9 per nine innings.
Lyon isn't a ground-ball pitcher like teammate and fellow free agent Fernando Rodney, but his GB/FB rate ranked in the middle of the pack among MLB relievers.
A caveat? Lyon has spent the majority of his career pitching in two of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the majors in Chase Field and Comerica Park. But attempting to take home ballparks into consideration is always tricky.
Lyon will be 30 on Opening Day, so he is considerably younger than a lot of the other pitching options on the market. And with the Phillies likely not in a position to overpay for players like Mike Gonzalez and Fernando Rodney, Lyon could be a palatable option should the Phillies find themselves unable to reach an agreement with Park.
For what it's worth, a former teammate of Lyon's told me a couple weeks ago that the righthander would be a "perfect fit" in Philadelphia.
III. Other Options
Apart from Lyon, Rockies reliever Rafael Betancourt is another player whose skill set would jive with the Phillies, although a report out of Denver earlier this offseason that said Betancourt rejected a two-year, $8 million contract suggests he might be out of the Phillies price range.
After that, I'd look for them to try to add the type of low-risk (AKA cheap), high-reward type of player that RAJ talked about yesterday. One option could be John Smoltz, although I'd say the chances of him actually signing in Philly are slim and none. There are other relievers who are either coming off unhealthy or unimpressive (or both) seasons who might be willing to sign a low-base, incentive-laden contract. ESPN reported the other day that the Phillies have had some interest in former Mets righthander J.J. Putz, with whom Pat Gillick and Benny Looper are familiar from their ties to the Mariners organization. But again, I'd put the chances of that happening at slim and none for a variety of reasons: One, it doesn't make much sense for the Phillies to invest any substantial money in a base salary for a player whose velocity dropped last season and whose workload has decreased in each of the last three seasons. Two, it doesn't make much sense for Putz to take a chance on a team that plays in what pitchers believe to be a bandbox and that features two back-of-the-bullpen arms who will get first dibs on high-leverage situations. Remember, he'll be trying to play his way into a big contract next year, and there would seem to be better opportunities to do so than in Philadelphia.
A more likely option would seem to be finding the 2010 version of Kiko Kalero or Brendan Donnelly, two players who performed well for the Marlins last season while trying to prove themselves after injuries. One such player who could fit that mold this year is righthander Joaquin Benoit. Benoit, who will be 32 in 2010, missed all of 2009 after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in Junuary. He posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP while battling shoulder pain in 2008. But from 2005-07, Benoit posted a 3.80 ERA and 1.243 WHIP while striking out 9.0 batters per nine innings for the Rangers.
Another name to keep your eye on is Brad Penny, who the Phillies have had some interest in over the last couple of seasons and who could be a guy who could compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Then, of course, there are the relievers who are perceived to be over-the-hill but who might try to make one last attempt at hanging on. Included in this category are former Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan and former Angel Justin Speier.
Ruiz's number, wow!— montco1- I would really like a back of the pen guy more than anything else. I liked the Polanco move, but did not love it. I love the Schneider signing and Castro was ho-hum. Solid post Murph!— SmartAlec
- We might have the best value at Catcher with Ruiz, solid defender and he manages the game so well. Plus he is money at the plate in the post season when most catchers are worn out.— bobf876
- I am curious where Drabek figures in the mix. Is he waiting in the wings for when the big guys walk in 2011?— RichieAllen64
- wow...these people are complaining about a penny pinching club with a 140 million payroll...phew— retzlaff
- Another good one, Murph.....— leonarcr
Polanco is a quality major league player and Mr. Amaro will do a solid job of completing the bullpen; next season is going to be very enjoyable. Play Ball! johnnyu- Bobphxville - you sir, are clueless.— pringleschief
- It's complements, not complinents, David. You also do a poor job at boiling things down. You might get many pages -- duh, you write about the Phillies -- but you need an editor. Your youth is embarrassing.— eman
- rocking ...... This is not basketball or football ..... Baseball players are NOT traded for draft picks.— PhightinPhil
- goofy ...... Your name says it all ...... You want the Phillies to trade Jamie Moyer, huh? ...... So, you think there's a demand for a 47-year pitcher? ..... This, after having surgery to repair three torn tendons in his groin and abdomen ..... A second surgery to have a small blood collection washed out ..... And a yet to-be-performed arthroscopic surgery in January to repair a torn meniscus ..... Oh, and did I mention he's due to make $8 million next season? ..... I wonder if Toronto will trade Halladay even up for him?— PhightinPhil
- HEY: Get all of the pitching that you can get.— mungman
- What about Scott Eyre?? ERA under 2.00 and great lefty situational pitcher. I'd take him over any of the other relievers mentioned.— karl51
- A lot of what the Phils will do with their pitching this offseason will depend on how ready they feel their minor league talent is to play in the bigs. Word is that Drabek still needs work and will open the season in Allentown. That buys the Phils some time but it may also prohibit them from taking advantage of a good offseason deal. This becomes important because Moyer may be best suited for long relief again this year and the Phils long-term plans for Blanton remain a question mark. Amaro has been frequently quoted as saying that you can never have enough pitching, and he is right. Ergo, from the Ruben Amaro, Jr. Playbook, it would seem prudent for the Phils to pick up another starter. Halladay, even for a year, is the obvious choice, provided that the asking price becomes more realistic. After that, my choice would be Zach Duke of the Pirates. After that, Braden Looper might be worth a look, as might Noah Lowry. As far as the pen is concerned, how ready are Bastardo and Escalona to play in Philly? Both of these guys are the real deal, but are they ready? The answer to this question will determine much of what is to follow this off-season. Ready or not, the Phils still need to acquire a top-of-the-line set-up man / closer to complement or replace Lidge. Betancourt, Valverde and Rodney are the real choices here, regardless of cost. Betancourt has reportedly rejected the Rockies' 2-year $7 million offer. Considering what the Phils are paying Lidge, they should certainly be able to offer more than $7 million for 2 years of one of baseball's premier relievers. Valverde and Rodney would be my next choices. Lyons and Putz are way down on my list. After acquiring Betancourt, Valverde or Rodney, the Phils need to resign Park. Resigning Eyre, Condrey, and possibly, Walker, would then depend on the readiness of Bastardo and/or Escalona. The key to 2010 acquiring another legitimate starter and dominant set-up man / closer. Everything else will then fall into place.
- David -- what's your basis for stating that Chase Field and Comerica Park are "two of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the majors?" According to the park factors available on ESPN.com, both are hitter-friendly. In 2009, when Lyon pitched for Detroit, Comerica's park factor was virtually the same as CBP's (1.026 to 1.028, with anything >1.0 favoring the hitters). From 2005-08, when he pitched for the Diamondbacks, Chase Field was the 6th, 4th, 5th and 2nd best hitters' park in MLB. ANd Lyon is a ground ball pitcher. So moving to CBP shouldn't affect him that much -- it's not like he built his resume in Petco.— paolibulldog
- Always enjoy reading your columns, David. Wow, $19.5 mil to Lidge & Moyer. Think there's anyway of dumping either or both salaries with a trade for draft picks ?— rockinginthefreeworld
- Murph, this was an excellent analysis - one that we Phillies Phans needed to satisfy our Phillies Obsession. I only think you are missing one point, which is Brad Penny. Penny is washed up, extremely inconsistent, can't last past five or six innnings (like R. Wolf) and not a good teammate. He would not be a good fit for our Phillies Championship team.— PhilliesPhorever
- I'd echo all of the kudos, David. Your posts are the most consistently informative and insightful pieces on this site, and among the better sports-related efforts. Phillies fans are lucky to get this much substance in reporting.— ijj
- Glad someone else has the time to look up this stuff because I surely don't, thanks Murph! just sayin'...— DJ
- "Rafael Betancourt is another player whose skill set would jive with the Phillies" You mean "jibe," not "jive." Otherwise, great post, very informative.— Neal Obstat
- The devil with Smoltz and his snarky remarks about CBP over the last four years. Let him buy cheese for his whine with someone else's money.— drbob456
- Once again an excellent post. Consistently the best writer on philly.com. Despite the stupid picture!— barcelona fan
- How about Justin Duchscherer? That's a value pick up. Fill your 5 open slots (4 pen, 1 bench) with: Duchscher, Lyon, Chan Ho, Bentancourt and Mark DeRosa....and I'll be on the website buying a ticket plan.— scootch
- Any chance that Tyler Walker will come back (preferably on a minor league contract)?— paolibulldog
- Dave: a nice meaty analysis. You provide much more meat than fat nowawdays. I didn't like your articles back in the day though maybe I didn't see enough .. but now you always seem to do a good job. You don't get bogged down in personalities unless it's appropo..— sportsdead
- Dude: The word is "jibe" not "jive." To jibe is to be in harmony with. Jive is music or nonesense.— andrewfrombrooklyn
- Everydayguy, Boomerpilot and Smurphy should get a room!— rockinrob
- David, isn't Ruiz arbitration eligible? You only see him going to 750K? I think that's a bit low.— Jesus G
- Great in-depth analysis of what's what. If the Phillies merely try to cobble together a bullpen on the cheap, they do so at their peril!— dasher
- Murph, great work as usual. Thanks for keeping baseball alive for us in these dark months. I'd like to see the Phils add Lyon. Other than that, the thought of giving Mathieson, Escalona, and Bastardo an opportunity makes great sense. Love to see a young gun or two coming out the pen. Finally, it must be noted that Dolson was a closet Yankees fan. Sad but true. You could look it up.— wooderice
- Rafael Betancourt is a Type A free agent ...... If the Phillies should go that route, "overpay" for Mike Gonzalez ...... And I wouldn't mind see them taking a flyer on J.J. Putz ...... He's a year removed from being a top-flight closer ...... And after an injury-plagued season, he might be willing to sign an incentive-laden deal.— PhightinPhil
- Here's a name that fits the low risk/high reward mindset: Kelvim Escobar. Missed the last two seasons but is apparently healthy, should be cheap and take an incentive-laden deal, and has experience as both a starter and a closer.— lhp1122
- Murph, you should gather all of the other bloggers on Philly.com (um, I am looking at you Eagleterian) and show them what a real post looks like. Well done sir!— The Reddgie
- What about Joe Savery? You never hear anything about this kid, yet all he does is win. His record in AA and AAA last season was great. If not a starter, why not give him a shot in the bullpen? He was also an excellent hitter in college and could add another bat in a pinch, and he was a good 1st baseman and played both spots in college. I don't understand why they don't give him a shot.— mike l
- Murph, you should gather all of the other bloggers on Philly.com (um, I am looking at you Eagleterian) and show them what a real post looks like. Well done sir!— The Reddgie
- Mark1npt...that comment is dispicable— Preserve Jon
- David, excellent work. I was curious if you thought that Taylor or Brown would be looked at for a bench role in 2010 or would they be better served playing every day in the minors. Also, if your speculation is correct and at least 2 of the bullpen spots are filled by internal candidates (Kendrick and Bastardo I agree are the most likely pitchers to fill those roles), could the Phillies use the cost savings to target another higher quality pitcher for the bullpen, perhaps someone like Valverde?— PhillieFanMpls
- Seriously, this is ridiculous. Not saying the window is closing but a lot of these guys may not be on the team in a year or two. Why not take a chance and spend? I understand we're not the Yankees (and who wants to be?), but seriously, you can land very good relievers for 4-6 mil. Hearing that Betancourt, a top lefty arm, rejecting a 2 yr deal paying him 4 mil per puts him out of our price range is very, very disappointing.— Funboy
- everydayguy....how big a ring did you get David?....Boomerpilot, don't fight over him.....Conlin's single now.— Mark1npt
- Does anyone really still think we're getting Roy Halladay? Please - he costs more than Murph says we have left.— B in DC
- Thank you for bringing up "Fat Z" and Mathieson. Has the team entertained bringing Rodrigo Lopez into camp to fight for the fifth starter's role, or is he not an option after the "unfortunateness" that occurred before his release, (read: 8 ER in his last 2 2/3 innings)?— B in DC
- Believe Phils would have to give up draft pick for Betancourt. What about Joe Belimel, who the Rockies didn't resign? Sounded like Putz was heading for Houston with Brett Myers.— yardbyrd
- Ayyyyyy sit on it!— ThePassenger
Comment removed.- Take a shot at BJ Ryan....if you can get him cheap.....he was once a great closer....nothing to lose.— Bill S
- Excellent post Murph!— imageshaper
- The Phillies penny pinching mentality will cost them another WS. They will only have the core of this team together for a short time. Age and free agency will take its toll over the next few years. The time to win is now. After the next few years, they will be back to the Phillies of old.— Bobphxville
- Another fine analysis David!— JBP
- David, I will "parrot" everydayguy. You are a journalistic breath of fresh air. I totally enjoy reading your stuff. I cannot say that about too many "quills" in today's world. Are you sure that you are not the recreated version of Frank Dolson? Keep it up. Thanks!— BoomerPilot
- David, you make my day. In an age of incessant talking heads where sports is superficial soap opera, I can always count on you to deliver quality analysis about my Phils. You make loving baseball fun again.— everydayguy
- This is a very high quality post. Thank you.— willll
- Comment removed.
