Andrew McCutchen's new contract and its impact on Shane Victorino
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Andrew McCutchen's new contract and its impact on Shane Victorino
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
A few days ago, we attempted to get a feel for the type of contract Shane Victorino is in position to see as he enters his final year before free agency. We noted that his .801 OPS over the last three seasons is sixth-best among center fielders. One of the players ahead of him was the Pirates Andrew McCutchen. So now that McCutchen has signed a six-year, $51 million extension, let's quickly re-visit the situation.
Over the last three years, McCutchen has posted a .276/.365/.428 line with 51 home runs and 79 stolen bases. During that same time period, Victorino has hit .277/.347/.454 with 45 home runs and 78 stolen bases.
Here is the breakdown of McCutchen's contract:
2012 (25 years old): .500 (2.123 service time)
2013 (26 years old): $4.5 (1st arb year)
2014 (27 years old): $7.25 (2nd arb year)
2015 (28 years old): $10.0 (3rd arb year)
2016 (29 years old): $13.0 (1st FA year)
2017 (30 years old): $14.0 (2nd FA year)
2018 (31 years old): $14.75/$1.0 (3rd FA year)
The key years to look at are 2016-18, because those are the years when McCutchen would have been a free agent. The Pirates will pay him an AAV of $14.0 million for the first two years, factoring in the $1 million buyout.
In our earlier look at Victorino's free agency, we set the likely floor for him at $13 million, and the likely ceiling at $18 million. If he were to hit free agency today, I'd expect him to command closer to the floor than the ceiling. But a huge year could easily send his price soaring.
The big question, obviously, is years. Victorino will be heading into his 32-year-old season when he reaches free agency in November. So a three-year contract would pay him through the age of 34, a four-year contract would pay him through the age of 35, and a five-year contract would pay him through the age of 36. We posited earlier that Victorino should start out by seeking a five-year deal that would pay him through the age of 36, which has been the magic age for a number of marquee free agents over the last few years. You have to expect the Phillies to start by offering three, with the middle point being four years through the age of 35, which is the age that the Phillies signed Jimmy Rollins through this past offseason.
Yes, McCutchen has better numbers and a higher ceiling than Victorino. But he also got the Pirates to commit to a $14 million AAV for his free agent seasons four years before he would have become a free agent. If he stays healthy, it will likely turn out to be a bargain. But it also gives him a lot of financial security. That was the trade off.
Victorino won't have anything to trade off. He clearly wants to stay in Philadelphia. Thus far, Cole Hamels has done a much better job of playing poker. But hey, Victorino wears his heart on his sleeve, and that's part of his appeal. A fair deal for both sides, even after the McCutchen deal, is probably in the four-year, $50-to-$60 million range. But that's right now, when we are talking about nominal dollars, and not real dollars, which tend to get inflated on the open market.
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$15M per year for either 3 or 4 years. Get it done.— DennyP- Are the Pirates actually paying McCutchen, or is his money coming from the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Braves via revenue sharing?— 1980
- Victorino seems to be aging better than most. His numbers get better each year, and he's a terrific centerfielder. I for one, would hate to see him playing elsewhere.— maurysline
- I want no parts of a four-year commitment for Vic. Sorry, but you can't have your entire starting 8 past their peak and declining. I'd rather see what BJ Upton is asking for.— willthethrill11
- BJ Upton over those same three years: .240/.322/.408. No thanks. — phillyl0
- Should be interesting. I just got my Phillies game plan with Cole Hamels front and center. Shane's just to his right. So my guess would be both are in the team's plans and Shane is likely to get somewhere right around this. But will they make him play this year out to see how healthy he is or isn't?— PhillySubsMac
- I like Vic, but you can't convince me he is as critical to this team's future as Cole Hamels or even Hunter Pence is. I think he is likely to be overpaid on the open market. I'd go 3 yr/$40MM.— Phils Phan 28
- Shane keeps getting better and look at the success we have had with him in CF. If has a big year this year other clubs are going to be offering big numbers. The Crawford and Werth deals are mistakes but they are $142 and $127 Million dollar deals. Also his Defense is underrated.— iluvPhly
- MLB Career Leaders in Fielding % at CF (stat started in 1954)
1. Darin Erstad .9968
2. Shane Victorino .9967 (5 errors in 5,631.1 Innings at CF)
3. Darren Lewis .9955
4. Daryl Hamilton .9943
Other notables
Carlos Beltran .9860
Gary Maddox .9829
Richie Ashburn .9826
Willie Mays .9813
Joe DiMaggio .9779
Ty Cobb .9706— iluvPhly - I'm a Shane Victorino fan, but fielding percentage is next to useless in evaluating centerfielders — phillyl0
- Tell that Stat to Charlie, see if he agrees after watching Dom Brown the last 2 games ...Genuis
- I don't think fielding % is a good or even reasonable way to judge CF defense. I'm not saying his defense isn't good - that is just a poor way to try to prove it. Most of defensive prowess in CF is how many balls you can get to. Fielding % just basically measures how many you drop. He catches with two hands - yeah Shane!!— Phils Phan 28
- Have to factor in Ty Gillies/Jiwan James developmental progression this year.— Romus
- victorino cant tie mccutchens shoes. They are not even on the same level.— bbewsirhc
- He has two more Gold Gloves, one more all star appearance and two more top-20 finishes in MVP voting. I think that at least earns him the right to tie his shoes. — phillyl0
